Indices
S&P 500 1,248.29 +4.91%
DJIA 10,717.50 +1.72%
NASDAQ 2,205.32 +2.13%
Russell 2000 673.22 +4.64%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,497.18 +4.57%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,109.58 +9.04%
S&P Barra Growth 596.52 +4.01%
S&P Barra Value 647.55 +5.85%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.50 +2.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 785.05 +2.17%
Morgan Stanley Technology 522.21 +3.37%
Transports 4,196.03 +11.65%
Utilities 405.11 +25.12%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,613 +8.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.03 -33.2%
Put/Call .76 -11.63%
NYSE Arms 1.65 +37.5%
Volatility(VIX) 12.07 -9.18%
ISE Sentiment 163.00 -23.47%
AAII % Bulls 37.30 -35.31%
AAII % Bears 36.51 +108.39%
US Dollar 91.07 +12.63%
CRB 331.83 +16.88%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.00 +.52%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.04 +47.08%
Unleaded Gasoline 172.74 +56.36%
Natural Gas 11.22 +82.44%
Heating Oil 176.98 +65.40%
Gold 519.70 +18.11%
Base Metals 152.41 +21.35%
Copper 203.20 +61.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.39% +4.03%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.22% +7.06%
Leading Sectors
Energy +40.51%
HMOs +37.14%
Gold & Silver +30.55%
I-Banks +29.84%
Utilities +25.12%
Lagging Sectors
Foods -4.04%
Telecom -5.71%
Computer Hardware -7.34%
Airlines -9.34%
Broadcasting -20.12%
This Year’s Winners
This Year’s Losers
*1 Year Total Return
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Friday, December 30, 2005
Stocks Lower Mid-day on Year-end Profit-taking and Rising Energy Prices
Indices
S&P 500 1,249.86 -.36%
DJIA 10,735.03 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,207.90 -.46%
Russell 2000 674.81 -.50%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,507.36%
S&P Barra Growth 597.02 -.37%
S&P Barra Value 647.48 -.46%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.46 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 785.55 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 522.54 -.54%
Transports 4,208.48 -.77%
Utilities 404.65 -.48%
Put/Call .80 -11.11%
NYSE Arms 1.47 +22.79%
Volatility(VIX) 11.74 +1.12%
ISE Sentiment 162.00 -1.0%
US Dollar 91.22 +.13%
CRB 331.78 +.75%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.00 +3.49%
Natural Gas 11.22 +.02%
Heating Oil 172.80 +1.47%
Gold 519.50 +.39%
Base Metals 152.41 -.37%
Copper 203.30 -.61%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.81%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.74%
Energy +1.15%
Disk Drives +.53%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.01%
Restaurants -1.06%
HMOs -1.08%
S&P 500 1,249.86 -.36%
DJIA 10,735.03 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,207.90 -.46%
Russell 2000 674.81 -.50%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,507.36%
S&P Barra Growth 597.02 -.37%
S&P Barra Value 647.48 -.46%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.46 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 785.55 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 522.54 -.54%
Transports 4,208.48 -.77%
Utilities 404.65 -.48%
Put/Call .80 -11.11%
NYSE Arms 1.47 +22.79%
Volatility(VIX) 11.74 +1.12%
ISE Sentiment 162.00 -1.0%
US Dollar 91.22 +.13%
CRB 331.78 +.75%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.00 +3.49%
Natural Gas 11.22 +.02%
Heating Oil 172.80 +1.47%
Gold 519.50 +.39%
Base Metals 152.41 -.37%
Copper 203.30 -.61%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.81%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.74%
Energy +1.15%
Disk Drives +.53%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.01%
Restaurants -1.06%
HMOs -1.08%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs, Semi longs and Energy-related shorts. I exiting a long and added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering recent losses and lack of year-end leadership. It looks as if the S&P 500 is going to finish the year with around a 5% total gain including dividends, short of my 10% projection. Next year has the potential to be much better. I will try and post a Year-End Scoreboard later this evening. I expect US stocks to trade higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and seasonal strength.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bill Miller, manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust, is about to beat the S&P 500 for a record 15th consecutive year.
- UK house prices rose for a fourth month in December, the Nationwide Building Society said, adding to evidence of a sustained pickup in the $6 trillion property market.
- Internet service providers in China, which already use software to monitor user behavior, will soon have to record which Web sites their users visit and what time they logged on, by law.
- Genentech filed for US marketing approval of its Lucentis treatment for age-related macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness among the elderly.
- Venezuela’s IBC stock index fell the most among the world’s 78 primary equity benchmarks this year, plunging 32%, on concern President Hugo Chavez will divert profits from investors as he seeks to redistribute wealth to the country’s poor.
Wall Street Journal:
- European mergers and acquisitions activity should grow in 2006 as economic and financial conditions become more favorable, citing bankers.
- Wal-Mart Stores plans to offer employee health insurance through Sam’s Club to small business owners.
- NTP Inc., the patent-holding company involved in a dispute with BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion, has obtained a 30-day extension from the US Patent and Trademark Office to file a defense for its claims.
NY Times:
- NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Joel Klein, chancellor of NY’s public schools, have convinced many private donors to donate more than $300 million for the city’s schools.
USA Today:
- As many as 56% of high-definition televisions’ purchasers haven’t bought the necessary special set-top box from cable or satellite providers that will enable the high-definition programming, citing surveys by Leichtman Research Group.
Financial Times:
- US legislation passed to encourage donations after Hurricane Katrina will probably make this year the best in history for US charities.
AP:
- The US Justice Department has begun an investigation into the leak of classified information about the National Security Agency’s domestic spy program to monitor overseas terror threats to the US.
NY Post:
- NY Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno said yesterday that democratic sate Attorney General Eliot Spitzer should support an independent investigation into the claim by former Goldman Sachs Chairman Whitehead that Spitzer had threatened him.
- Bill Miller, manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust, is about to beat the S&P 500 for a record 15th consecutive year.
- UK house prices rose for a fourth month in December, the Nationwide Building Society said, adding to evidence of a sustained pickup in the $6 trillion property market.
- Internet service providers in China, which already use software to monitor user behavior, will soon have to record which Web sites their users visit and what time they logged on, by law.
- Genentech filed for US marketing approval of its Lucentis treatment for age-related macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness among the elderly.
- Venezuela’s IBC stock index fell the most among the world’s 78 primary equity benchmarks this year, plunging 32%, on concern President Hugo Chavez will divert profits from investors as he seeks to redistribute wealth to the country’s poor.
Wall Street Journal:
- European mergers and acquisitions activity should grow in 2006 as economic and financial conditions become more favorable, citing bankers.
- Wal-Mart Stores plans to offer employee health insurance through Sam’s Club to small business owners.
- NTP Inc., the patent-holding company involved in a dispute with BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion, has obtained a 30-day extension from the US Patent and Trademark Office to file a defense for its claims.
NY Times:
- NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Joel Klein, chancellor of NY’s public schools, have convinced many private donors to donate more than $300 million for the city’s schools.
USA Today:
- As many as 56% of high-definition televisions’ purchasers haven’t bought the necessary special set-top box from cable or satellite providers that will enable the high-definition programming, citing surveys by Leichtman Research Group.
Financial Times:
- US legislation passed to encourage donations after Hurricane Katrina will probably make this year the best in history for US charities.
AP:
- The US Justice Department has begun an investigation into the leak of classified information about the National Security Agency’s domestic spy program to monitor overseas terror threats to the US.
NY Post:
- NY Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno said yesterday that democratic sate Attorney General Eliot Spitzer should support an independent investigation into the claim by former Goldman Sachs Chairman Whitehead that Spitzer had threatened him.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A new-found flaw in Microsoft’s Windows operating system is being used by hackers to install malicious code on personal computers.
- Intel will replace its corporate logo and simplify product brands in a major shakeup of the company’s marketing.
- Japanese stocks may rise, helping the Nikkei 225 Average close out the year with the biggest annual gain in at least 19 years.
London-based Times:
- Google is being sued for patent infringement over Google Talk, a free Internet telephone system, citing documents posted on line by Search Engine Watch, a Blog that first reported the case.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IHS.
Business Week:
- AmeriCredit Corp.(ACF), which provides car loans to borrowers with poor credit histories, may be an attractive takeover target for a bank or financial group.
- Focus Media Holding Ltd.(FMCN), a Chinese advertising display company that’s listed on the Nasdaq Composite Index, will benefit as domestic shopping expands in China.
- Overseas Shipholding Group(OSG) is likely to benefit from growing demand to transport fuel to energy hungry nations.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
VRTY/.08
Upcoming Splits
CELL 3-for-2
ORI 5-for-4
SIE 2-for-1
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- A new-found flaw in Microsoft’s Windows operating system is being used by hackers to install malicious code on personal computers.
- Intel will replace its corporate logo and simplify product brands in a major shakeup of the company’s marketing.
- Japanese stocks may rise, helping the Nikkei 225 Average close out the year with the biggest annual gain in at least 19 years.
London-based Times:
- Google is being sued for patent infringement over Google Talk, a free Internet telephone system, citing documents posted on line by Search Engine Watch, a Blog that first reported the case.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IHS.
Business Week:
- AmeriCredit Corp.(ACF), which provides car loans to borrowers with poor credit histories, may be an attractive takeover target for a bank or financial group.
- Focus Media Holding Ltd.(FMCN), a Chinese advertising display company that’s listed on the Nasdaq Composite Index, will benefit as domestic shopping expands in China.
- Overseas Shipholding Group(OSG) is likely to benefit from growing demand to transport fuel to energy hungry nations.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
VRTY/.08
Upcoming Splits
CELL 3-for-2
ORI 5-for-4
SIE 2-for-1
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, dragged down my commodity and exporting companies in the region on worries over the US housing market. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally modestly into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
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