Indices
S&P 500 1,285.45 +2.47%
DJIA 10,959.31 +1.62%
NASDAQ 2,305.62 +3.94%
Russell 2000 699.39 +3.16%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,130.46 +2.08%
S&P Barra Growth 615.33 +2.61%
S&P Barra Value 665.64 +2.34%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.10 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 808.15 +2.29%
Morgan Stanley Technology 553.27 +5.31%
Transports 4,214.28 -.64%
Utilities 415.15 +2.09%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,368 +1.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 53.0 +96.07%
Put/Call .65 -27.78%
NYSE Arms .86 -27.73%
Volatility(VIX) 11.0 -5.25%
ISE Sentiment 154.00 -5.52%
AAII % Bulls 29.35 -21.31%
AAII % Bears 40.22 +10.16%
US Dollar 88.92 -2.37%
CRB 339.47 +3.08%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.60 +.52%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.21 +6.48%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.55 +8.52%
Natural Gas 9.63 -13.85%
Heating Oil 180.06 +3.78%
Gold 540.80 +4.06%
Base Metals 155.65 +2.13%
Copper 208.25 +2.38%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37 -.45%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.21% -.16%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +9.43%
Gold & Silver +7.95%
Semis +7.79%
Internet +6.32%
Wireless +5.65%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers +.70%
Papers +.37%
Foods +.28%
Retail -.20%
Broadcasting -.51%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, January 06, 2006
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was in “critical but stable” condition after a brain scan today following surgery showed “significant” improvement, the hospital said.
- A federal appeals court upheld the obstruction-of-justice conviction of Martha Stewart, the homemaking entrepreneur who went to jail for lying to federal authorities probing her stock sale.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) CEO Semel today will outline a plan to create software that lets consumers access the company’s services from televisions and cell phones to lure users to spend more time on its Web sites.
- Intel(INTC) wants to surf a “wave of creativity” into consumer electronics.
- The unemployment rate in the dozen nations sharing the euro remained at 8.3% in November, 66% higher than that of the United States.
- Best Buy(BBY), the No. 1 US consumer electronics company, said December same-store sales rose 5.8%, while Circuit City(CC) said sales rose 11%.
- EMC Corp.(EMC), the world’s biggest maker of data-storage computers and programs, said fourth-quarter sales rose more than it had predicted.
- Pfizer Inc.(PFE) said it is adding radio-frequency identification tags to all US shipments of its impotence drug Viagra as an anti-counterfeiting measure.
- Crude oil is climbing more than a dollar in NY, heading for a second straight weekly gain, on fears of destabilization of the Middle East.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup(C), HJ Heinz(HNZ) and Pfizer(PFE) are among US stocks that currently have a higher after-tax dividend yield than 10-year US Treasury bonds, a trend that makes such stocks appealing to bond investors.
- Gap Inc.(GPS) is redesigning its stores to make them friendlier and more approachable, including brown leather couches and reading material in a style that evokes Starbucks(SBUX) coffee outlets.
- BellSouth Corp.(BLS), AT&T Inc.(T) and other telephone companies want to charge fees to guarantee fast Internet access for music, movies and other electronically delivered services.
- The US office market vacancy rate improved for the seventh straight quarter in the last period of 2005, as office markets in NY and parts of California benefited from job growth.
- Actively managed US stock mutual funds beat market indexes in five out of nine categories defined by Morningstar in 2005.
NY Post:
- Burlington Coat Factory(BCF) may be sold by month’s end to a private equity firm after posting better-than-expected sales results.
NY Times:
- US charities stand to benefit from the largesse of former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to conspiracy and wire fraud, as both Democrats and Republicans donate tens of thousands of dollars they received in political contributions from him.
Washington Post:
- The US and its European allies have enough votes to bring Iran before the UN Security Council for possible censure over its nuclear program, citing US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
AP:
- Boston Scientific(BSX) may reach an agreement as soon as next week to acquire cardiac device maker Guidant, citing Boston Scientific spokesman Paul Donovan.
- NYC recorded its lowest death rate ever in 2004 due in part to a 14% drop in fatal heart attacks, citing the health dept.
- A campaign fund-raising group for US Senator Hillary Clinton has agreed to a $35,000 fine for underreporting hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on a Hollywood fund-raiser in 2000.
Reuters:
- EchoStar Communications’(DISH) CEO Ergen said on Thursday he does not expect to reach a settlement with TiVo(TIVO) before their legal battle over patent rights reaches the courts.
Detroit News:
- GM(GM) plans to cut the retail price of its vehicles to attract buyers and rely less on rebates and other promotions.
Rzeczpospolita:
- The Polish government will keep troops in Iraq into 2007.
Euro am Sonntag:
- Samsung Electronics, whose shares are traded in Seoul, London and Luxembourg, plans to have the stock listed in the US if conditions are “favorable.”
AFP:
- Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on President Bush to admit defeat in Iraq, and said withdrawal of American troops from the Middle Eastern nation would be a victory for Islam.
- Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was in “critical but stable” condition after a brain scan today following surgery showed “significant” improvement, the hospital said.
- A federal appeals court upheld the obstruction-of-justice conviction of Martha Stewart, the homemaking entrepreneur who went to jail for lying to federal authorities probing her stock sale.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) CEO Semel today will outline a plan to create software that lets consumers access the company’s services from televisions and cell phones to lure users to spend more time on its Web sites.
- Intel(INTC) wants to surf a “wave of creativity” into consumer electronics.
- The unemployment rate in the dozen nations sharing the euro remained at 8.3% in November, 66% higher than that of the United States.
- Best Buy(BBY), the No. 1 US consumer electronics company, said December same-store sales rose 5.8%, while Circuit City(CC) said sales rose 11%.
- EMC Corp.(EMC), the world’s biggest maker of data-storage computers and programs, said fourth-quarter sales rose more than it had predicted.
- Pfizer Inc.(PFE) said it is adding radio-frequency identification tags to all US shipments of its impotence drug Viagra as an anti-counterfeiting measure.
- Crude oil is climbing more than a dollar in NY, heading for a second straight weekly gain, on fears of destabilization of the Middle East.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup(C), HJ Heinz(HNZ) and Pfizer(PFE) are among US stocks that currently have a higher after-tax dividend yield than 10-year US Treasury bonds, a trend that makes such stocks appealing to bond investors.
- Gap Inc.(GPS) is redesigning its stores to make them friendlier and more approachable, including brown leather couches and reading material in a style that evokes Starbucks(SBUX) coffee outlets.
- BellSouth Corp.(BLS), AT&T Inc.(T) and other telephone companies want to charge fees to guarantee fast Internet access for music, movies and other electronically delivered services.
- The US office market vacancy rate improved for the seventh straight quarter in the last period of 2005, as office markets in NY and parts of California benefited from job growth.
- Actively managed US stock mutual funds beat market indexes in five out of nine categories defined by Morningstar in 2005.
NY Post:
- Burlington Coat Factory(BCF) may be sold by month’s end to a private equity firm after posting better-than-expected sales results.
NY Times:
- US charities stand to benefit from the largesse of former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who has pleaded guilty to conspiracy and wire fraud, as both Democrats and Republicans donate tens of thousands of dollars they received in political contributions from him.
Washington Post:
- The US and its European allies have enough votes to bring Iran before the UN Security Council for possible censure over its nuclear program, citing US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
AP:
- Boston Scientific(BSX) may reach an agreement as soon as next week to acquire cardiac device maker Guidant, citing Boston Scientific spokesman Paul Donovan.
- NYC recorded its lowest death rate ever in 2004 due in part to a 14% drop in fatal heart attacks, citing the health dept.
- A campaign fund-raising group for US Senator Hillary Clinton has agreed to a $35,000 fine for underreporting hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on a Hollywood fund-raiser in 2000.
Reuters:
- EchoStar Communications’(DISH) CEO Ergen said on Thursday he does not expect to reach a settlement with TiVo(TIVO) before their legal battle over patent rights reaches the courts.
Detroit News:
- GM(GM) plans to cut the retail price of its vehicles to attract buyers and rely less on rebates and other promotions.
Rzeczpospolita:
- The Polish government will keep troops in Iraq into 2007.
Euro am Sonntag:
- Samsung Electronics, whose shares are traded in Seoul, London and Luxembourg, plans to have the stock listed in the US if conditions are “favorable.”
AFP:
- Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on President Bush to admit defeat in Iraq, and said withdrawal of American troops from the Middle Eastern nation would be a victory for Islam.
Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December was 108K versus estimates of 200K and an upwardly revised 305K in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December was 18K versus estimates of 0K and 8K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December fell to 4.9% versus estimates of 5.0% and a rate of 5.0% in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .1% rise in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December was 18K versus estimates of 0K and 8K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December fell to 4.9% versus estimates of 5.0% and a rate of 5.0% in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .1% rise in November.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy added 108,000 jobs in December, capping the second straight year American employers added more than 2 million workers, Bloomberg said. Overall, this report is positive for stocks as 108,000 new jobs is enough to keep unemployment low without generating substantial unit labor cost increases, which account for two-thirds of inflation. I expect this trend to continue over the intermediate-term.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in an induced coma after brain surgery while his new party prepares for a successor who can win the national election in March and advance Sharon’s efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict.
Edaily:
- Samsung Electronics plans to begin mass production at a new liquid-crystal display factory geared for 52-inch televisions next year.
China Daily:
- Casino revenue in Asia will increase 20% this year to $13 billion, driven by growth of Macau’s gaming industry, citing Las Vegas-based consultant Globalysis.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (ENTG), (IBM) and (SBUX).
- Reiterated Outperform on (GOOG), raised 05, 06 and 07 estimates with aggressive valuation target boosted to $556.
- Reiterated Outperform on (YHOO), raised 06 and 07 estimates with new implied value of $50.
- Reiterated Underperform on (DRI).
Business Week:
- Shares of Genesee & Wyoming(GWR) may surge almost 60% in 18 months because of increased earnings from acquisitions.
- The shares of Anadarko Petroleum(APC) may rise because the company may be a takeover target, citing Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit.
- The shares of Cogent(COGT) may rise on increased sales.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(DLP).13
(GAP)-.49
(SGR).36
Upcoming Splits
(PTC) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December is estimated at 200K versus 215K in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December is estimated at 0K versus 11K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December is estimated at 5.0% versus a 5.0% rate in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in November.
Bloomberg:
- Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in an induced coma after brain surgery while his new party prepares for a successor who can win the national election in March and advance Sharon’s efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict.
Edaily:
- Samsung Electronics plans to begin mass production at a new liquid-crystal display factory geared for 52-inch televisions next year.
China Daily:
- Casino revenue in Asia will increase 20% this year to $13 billion, driven by growth of Macau’s gaming industry, citing Las Vegas-based consultant Globalysis.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (ENTG), (IBM) and (SBUX).
- Reiterated Outperform on (GOOG), raised 05, 06 and 07 estimates with aggressive valuation target boosted to $556.
- Reiterated Outperform on (YHOO), raised 06 and 07 estimates with new implied value of $50.
- Reiterated Underperform on (DRI).
Business Week:
- Shares of Genesee & Wyoming(GWR) may surge almost 60% in 18 months because of increased earnings from acquisitions.
- The shares of Anadarko Petroleum(APC) may rise because the company may be a takeover target, citing Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit.
- The shares of Cogent(COGT) may rise on increased sales.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(DLP).13
(GAP)-.49
(SGR).36
Upcoming Splits
(PTC) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December is estimated at 200K versus 215K in November.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for December is estimated at 0K versus 11K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December is estimated at 5.0% versus a 5.0% rate in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as losses in commodity producing companies in the region are being offset by gains in technology shares. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
***Alert***
I am unable to post the Thursday Close due to a scheduling conflict. I will post the Friday Watch later this evening.
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