Friday, March 10, 2006
***Alert***
I am having trouble posting today due to technical problems with Blogger, the host of this site. Sorry for the inconvenience. I am positioned 75% net long.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gate’s net worth has risen to $50 billion, making him the world’s richest person and widening his lead over No. 2 Warren Buffett, according to Forbes magazine’s annual survey.
- Oil prices may fall further as the end of the winter heating season leads to a decline in fuel consumption, a Bloomberg survey shows.
- China’s producer prices rose in February at the slowest pace in more than two years as the cost of steel fell.
Business Week:
- Eli Lilly(LLY) is likely to boost profit because revenue will rise on its Byetta diabetes drug.
Kyodo Newswire:
- The short-range missiles tested this week by North Korea used upgraded technology that included the use of solid fuel to make transport easier and increase their accuracy.
China Daily:
- SigmaTel Inc.(SGTL), the world’s biggest maker of chips for MP3 players, plans to set up a subsidiary in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen this month to increase sales.
Korea Herald:
- Kia Motors Corp. is expected to announce plans for its first US plant as early as next week, with a site in southwestern Georgia the leading contender.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (CNO), (STZ), (NFP), (RE), (ENH) and (AIG).
- Reiterated Underperform on (HBAN) and (TWMC).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.40
- (BOL)/1.20
- (LGN)/-.41
- (NAT)/1.47
- (PHH)/.52
- (SUP)/.22
Upcoming Splits
- (ATLS) 3-for-2
- (MINI) 2-for-1
- (PD) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 193K in January.
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 5K versus 7K in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.0% increase in December.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$118.3 billion versus -$113.9 billion in January.
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gate’s net worth has risen to $50 billion, making him the world’s richest person and widening his lead over No. 2 Warren Buffett, according to Forbes magazine’s annual survey.
- Oil prices may fall further as the end of the winter heating season leads to a decline in fuel consumption, a Bloomberg survey shows.
- China’s producer prices rose in February at the slowest pace in more than two years as the cost of steel fell.
Business Week:
- Eli Lilly(LLY) is likely to boost profit because revenue will rise on its Byetta diabetes drug.
Kyodo Newswire:
- The short-range missiles tested this week by North Korea used upgraded technology that included the use of solid fuel to make transport easier and increase their accuracy.
China Daily:
- SigmaTel Inc.(SGTL), the world’s biggest maker of chips for MP3 players, plans to set up a subsidiary in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen this month to increase sales.
Korea Herald:
- Kia Motors Corp. is expected to announce plans for its first US plant as early as next week, with a site in southwestern Georgia the leading contender.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (CNO), (STZ), (NFP), (RE), (ENH) and (AIG).
- Reiterated Underperform on (HBAN) and (TWMC).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.40
- (BOL)/1.20
- (LGN)/-.41
- (NAT)/1.47
- (PHH)/.52
- (SUP)/.22
Upcoming Splits
- (ATLS) 3-for-2
- (MINI) 2-for-1
- (PD) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 193K in January.
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 5K versus 7K in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.0% increase in December.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$118.3 billion versus -$113.9 billion in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region on US dollar strength. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
***Alert***
Due to a scheduling conflict I am unable to post the Thursday Close. I will post the Friday Watch later this evening. I finished the day positioned 25% net long.
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Bounce in Oil and Rising Apprehension
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) shorts and added (EEM) and (ATHR) shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is above average. The market's reaction to National Semiconductor's (NSM) positive report, a reversal lower in long-term rates and the DP World news is disappointing. It appears the major averages have more work to do before another push higher can commence. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on weakness in the tech sector and rising apprehension ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A newspaper editor in Yemen who republished Danish cartoons depicting Islam’s founding prophet Muhammad said Yemeni prosecutors are calling for his execution.
- Microsoft(MSFT) unveiled a compact laptop computer to tap demand for machines that are smaller, lighter and mobile.
- Intuit(INTU) raised its fiscal third-quarter forecasts on higher-than-expected orders for its online TurboTax products.
- Measles deaths fell by almost 50% globally over five years after children were targeted for vaccination in 45 countries, world health officials said.
- Dubai-owned DP World, facing congressional opposition to its operation of six US ports, will “transfer” its ownership of those terminals to a US entity.
- Bill Miller, the Legg Mason fund manager who’s beaten the S&P 500 for 15 straight years, loaded up on US homebuilder stocks as other investors were dumping them.
- Gasoline futures are rising more than 4% a report showing a greater-than-expected decrease in US refinery output signaled reduced supplies.
Wall Street Journal:
- Many US real estate investment trusts, or REITS, are disappearing form the stock market because they say they are better appreciated by private investors and securities analysts consistently undervalue their companies.
- Liberty Media(L) is in talks to swap part of its 4% stake in Time Warner(TWX) for operating assets, Liberty’s CEO said.
- The EPA, the auto industry and environmental groups agreed to start a national program to collect mercury switches from scrapped cars as they seek to reduce harmful mercury emissions.
- Apple Computer’s(AAPL) new Mac Mini computer allows users to stream music and videos from any networked computer to their home entertainment center.
- Foreign companies manage most terminals at US ports, a consequence of the hold global shipping lines have over the loading and unloading of cargoes.
- Las Vegas Sands(LVS) has seen its shares soar 87% since October, mainly because it has a casino in Macau, on China’s southern coast, but it will soon face tougher competition.
USA Today:
- Knight Ridder(KRI) is expected to receive bids from McClatchy Co. and a partnership of Gannett Co.(GCI) and Medianews Group.
NY Times:
- The Chinese Communist Party is running a Maoist-style campaign in a bid to improve its reputation among China’s people.
Mysteel.com:
- China’s February exports of steel products rose 25% to 1.86 million metric tons from a year earlier.
- A newspaper editor in Yemen who republished Danish cartoons depicting Islam’s founding prophet Muhammad said Yemeni prosecutors are calling for his execution.
- Microsoft(MSFT) unveiled a compact laptop computer to tap demand for machines that are smaller, lighter and mobile.
- Intuit(INTU) raised its fiscal third-quarter forecasts on higher-than-expected orders for its online TurboTax products.
- Measles deaths fell by almost 50% globally over five years after children were targeted for vaccination in 45 countries, world health officials said.
- Dubai-owned DP World, facing congressional opposition to its operation of six US ports, will “transfer” its ownership of those terminals to a US entity.
- Bill Miller, the Legg Mason fund manager who’s beaten the S&P 500 for 15 straight years, loaded up on US homebuilder stocks as other investors were dumping them.
- Gasoline futures are rising more than 4% a report showing a greater-than-expected decrease in US refinery output signaled reduced supplies.
Wall Street Journal:
- Many US real estate investment trusts, or REITS, are disappearing form the stock market because they say they are better appreciated by private investors and securities analysts consistently undervalue their companies.
- Liberty Media(L) is in talks to swap part of its 4% stake in Time Warner(TWX) for operating assets, Liberty’s CEO said.
- The EPA, the auto industry and environmental groups agreed to start a national program to collect mercury switches from scrapped cars as they seek to reduce harmful mercury emissions.
- Apple Computer’s(AAPL) new Mac Mini computer allows users to stream music and videos from any networked computer to their home entertainment center.
- Foreign companies manage most terminals at US ports, a consequence of the hold global shipping lines have over the loading and unloading of cargoes.
- Las Vegas Sands(LVS) has seen its shares soar 87% since October, mainly because it has a casino in Macau, on China’s southern coast, but it will soon face tougher competition.
USA Today:
- Knight Ridder(KRI) is expected to receive bids from McClatchy Co. and a partnership of Gannett Co.(GCI) and Medianews Group.
NY Times:
- The Chinese Communist Party is running a Maoist-style campaign in a bid to improve its reputation among China’s people.
Mysteel.com:
- China’s February exports of steel products rose 25% to 1.86 million metric tons from a year earlier.
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