Bloomberg:
- Junk bonds, the worst part of the US debt market, are offering the best returns, forcing analysts to revise forecasts for what was supposed to be a disappointing year.
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) reported Wall Street’s highest-ever quarterly profit and revenue, powered by record trading and money-management fees.
- A rally in US Treasuries drove 10-year notes to their biggest gain since December after a government report showed retail sales fell last month.
- Chinese and Russian envoys to the UN said they can’s support Security Council action on Iran’s nuclear program that would go beyond backing for the world body’s nuclear watchdog agency.
- Crude oil is rising as Iran may review contracts with foreign oil and gas companies if the UN imposes sanctions because of its nuclear program.
Wall Street Journal:
- A bill pending in the US Congress would make it easier to organize mergers and acquisitions so as to avoid taxes.
- Mexico today plans to announce the discovery of an offshore oil field with reserves that may exceed those at Cantarell, the country’s largest tract, citing an interview with Mexican President Vicente Fox.
- Gobi Partners, one of the first technology venture-capital funds buying in China, faces competition form other firms, raising concerns about a glut of overseas money chasing Chinese companies.
- France is considering a law that would force Apple Computer’s(AAPL) iTunes online music service to permit songs to be downloaded to digital music players other than the iPod.
- The US energy industry is boosting investments in facilities for the importation of liquefied natural gas, amid forecasts that demand will exceed growth estimates.
Arab News:
- Saudi politicians in the kingdom’s Shoura Council called on the government of the Middle East’s No. 1 economy to halt a slide on the country’s benchmark Tadawul All Shares Index.
Nikkei English News:
- Sony Corp.(SNE) will delay the release of its new PlayStation 3 video-game console until early November to ensure the copy protection technology for the Blu-ray disc works.
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Current Account Gap Widens, Retail Sales Fall on Colder Weather, Inventories Rise
- The Current Account Deficit for 4Q widened to -$224.9 billion versus estimates of -$218.0 billion and -$185.4 billion in 3Q.
- Advance Retail Sales for February fell 1.3% versus estimates of a .8% decline and an upwardly revised 2.9% increase in January.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for February fell .4% versus estimates of a .5% fall and an upwardly revised 2.6% increase in January.
- Business Inventories for January rose .4% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .8% gain in December.
- Advance Retail Sales for February fell 1.3% versus estimates of a .8% decline and an upwardly revised 2.9% increase in January.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for February fell .4% versus estimates of a .5% fall and an upwardly revised 2.6% increase in January.
- Business Inventories for January rose .4% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .8% gain in December.
BOTTOM LINE: The US current account deficit widened more than forecast to $224.9 billion, driven by the US economy’s relative strength versus other industrialized nations, Bloomberg reported. The trade deficit, which accounts for 88% of the total current account deficit, rose last quarter on soaring imported oil costs and Americans’ appetite for goods made in Asian countries. I expect the current account deficit to only improve modestly over the intermediate-term as commodity price declines more than offset the continuing relative strength of the US economy.
Retail sales in the US fell last month after the biggest gain in more than four years as auto purchases declined and the return of cold weather discouraged shoppers, Bloomberg said. A healthy job market, falling energy prices and low borrowing costs over the intermediate-term should more than offset a housing market that is slowing to more sustainable levels.
Sales at US businesses rose 1.3% in January, more than three times the increase in inventories, suggesting gains in production in coming months, Bloomberg said. Inventory rebuilding added 1.62 percentage points to economic growth last quarter, the most since 1Q 2002. I continue to expect inventory rebuilding to add to economic growth over the intermediate-term as corporate spending accelerates and businesses gain confidence in the durability of the current expansion.
Monday, March 13, 2006
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Stocks in Dubai, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, among the world’s best performers since 2003, are sliding amid a record number of planned IPOs and concern that prices have outpaced the outlook for earrings growth.
- China and Russia are blocking agreement on a US-backed statement by the UN Security Council that Iran must suspend uranium enrichment activities, US Ambassador John Bolton said.
- Emerging-market equity funds have attracted $20.9 billion this year, eclipsing the record inflows they garnered in all of 2005.
- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao criticized the Taiwanese government for “highly risky and dangerous” actions and threatened to respond to steps toward independence.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), the majority owner of the E! Entertainment Television cable network, is in talks to buy the remaining 40% stake from Walt Disney(DIS).
Wall Streete Journal:
- US Justice Department attorneys on a case against Google(GOOG) will argue tomorrow that the release of the company’s search records won’t violate consumer privacy.
Financial Times:
- Best Buy(BBY) is in talks to buy a minority stake in Five Star Appliance, China’s fourth-largest electronics retailer.
China Daily:
- Juniper Network’s(JNPR) sales in China rose 50% last year from 2004, citing the company’s Chairman and CEO.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BKD)/.06
- (GS)/3.29
- (LEXR)/-.16
- (PDE)/.29
- (SUG)/.42
- (VTIV)/.28
Upcoming Splits
- (BMHC) 2-for-1
- (GWR) 3-for-2
- (PALM) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Current Account Deficit for 4Q is estimated to widen to -$218.0 billion versus -$195.8 billion in 3Q.
- Advance Retail Sales for February are estimated to fall .8% versus a 2.3% gain in January.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for February are estimated to fall .5% versus a 2.2% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for January are estimated to rise .3% versus a .7% increase in December.
Bloomberg:
- Stocks in Dubai, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, among the world’s best performers since 2003, are sliding amid a record number of planned IPOs and concern that prices have outpaced the outlook for earrings growth.
- China and Russia are blocking agreement on a US-backed statement by the UN Security Council that Iran must suspend uranium enrichment activities, US Ambassador John Bolton said.
- Emerging-market equity funds have attracted $20.9 billion this year, eclipsing the record inflows they garnered in all of 2005.
- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao criticized the Taiwanese government for “highly risky and dangerous” actions and threatened to respond to steps toward independence.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), the majority owner of the E! Entertainment Television cable network, is in talks to buy the remaining 40% stake from Walt Disney(DIS).
Wall Streete Journal:
- US Justice Department attorneys on a case against Google(GOOG) will argue tomorrow that the release of the company’s search records won’t violate consumer privacy.
Financial Times:
- Best Buy(BBY) is in talks to buy a minority stake in Five Star Appliance, China’s fourth-largest electronics retailer.
China Daily:
- Juniper Network’s(JNPR) sales in China rose 50% last year from 2004, citing the company’s Chairman and CEO.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BKD)/.06
- (GS)/3.29
- (LEXR)/-.16
- (PDE)/.29
- (SUG)/.42
- (VTIV)/.28
Upcoming Splits
- (BMHC) 2-for-1
- (GWR) 3-for-2
- (PALM) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Current Account Deficit for 4Q is estimated to widen to -$218.0 billion versus -$195.8 billion in 3Q.
- Advance Retail Sales for February are estimated to fall .8% versus a 2.3% gain in January.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for February are estimated to fall .5% versus a 2.2% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for January are estimated to rise .3% versus a .7% increase in December.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Slightly Higher, Led by Energy Shares
Indices
S&P 500 1,284.13 +.20%
DJIA 11,076.02 unch.
NASDAQ 2,267.03 +.22%
Russell 2000 728.04 +.23%
Wilshire 5000 12,914.81 +.22%
S&P Barra Growth 606.82 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 673.86 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 611.68 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.99 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 529.87 +.27%
Transports 4,454.02 -.05%
Utilities 400.81 +.22%
Put/Call .85 -2.30%
NYSE Arms .75 -.43%
Volatility(VIX) 11.37 -4.05%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -24.36%
US Dollar 90.54 -.34%
CRB 322.99 +1.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.95 +.30%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.85 +1.45%
Natural Gas 7.07 +.91%
Heating Oil 174.93 +.66%
Gold 547.20 -.05%
Base Metals 165.75 +.66%
Copper 224.50 -.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.71% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.99%
Energy +1.97%
Computer Hardware +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.91%
Steel -1.07%
Airlines -1.16%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Lowered STTX to Underperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bill Gross, CIO at PIMCO, told CNBC he expects one or two more interest-rate increases from the Fed.
- AstraZeneca Plc’s(AZN) cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor reduced artery-clogging plaque in test patients, the first time a pill has ever reversed the years of damage that lead to heart attacks, researchers said.
- Rambus Inc.(RMBS), after six years of pursuing patent litigation against memory chip makers, presents its first case to a jury this week at a trial against Hynix Semiconductor.
- General Motors(GM) will offer buyers as much as $1,000 per vehicle on older cars and trucks in US dealer inventories.
- Australian troops will stay in Iraq “well into” 2007, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson said.
- Crude oil is rising a second day in NY as the UN prepares to consider Iran’s refusal to end its nuclear research and colder weather in the northern US boosted heating fuel prices.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) paid CEO Jobs $1 in salary and no bonus in 2005 after he guided the maker of the iPod music player and iMac computer to its biggest profit ever.
DPA-AFX:
- BMW AG, the world’s largest luxury carmaker, plans to build a hydrogen-powered car within the next two years.
S&P 500 1,284.13 +.20%
DJIA 11,076.02 unch.
NASDAQ 2,267.03 +.22%
Russell 2000 728.04 +.23%
Wilshire 5000 12,914.81 +.22%
S&P Barra Growth 606.82 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 673.86 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 611.68 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.99 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 529.87 +.27%
Transports 4,454.02 -.05%
Utilities 400.81 +.22%
Put/Call .85 -2.30%
NYSE Arms .75 -.43%
Volatility(VIX) 11.37 -4.05%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -24.36%
US Dollar 90.54 -.34%
CRB 322.99 +1.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.95 +.30%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.85 +1.45%
Natural Gas 7.07 +.91%
Heating Oil 174.93 +.66%
Gold 547.20 -.05%
Base Metals 165.75 +.66%
Copper 224.50 -.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.71% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.99%
Energy +1.97%
Computer Hardware +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.91%
Steel -1.07%
Airlines -1.16%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Lowered STTX to Underperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bill Gross, CIO at PIMCO, told CNBC he expects one or two more interest-rate increases from the Fed.
- AstraZeneca Plc’s(AZN) cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor reduced artery-clogging plaque in test patients, the first time a pill has ever reversed the years of damage that lead to heart attacks, researchers said.
- Rambus Inc.(RMBS), after six years of pursuing patent litigation against memory chip makers, presents its first case to a jury this week at a trial against Hynix Semiconductor.
- General Motors(GM) will offer buyers as much as $1,000 per vehicle on older cars and trucks in US dealer inventories.
- Australian troops will stay in Iraq “well into” 2007, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson said.
- Crude oil is rising a second day in NY as the UN prepares to consider Iran’s refusal to end its nuclear research and colder weather in the northern US boosted heating fuel prices.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) paid CEO Jobs $1 in salary and no bonus in 2005 after he guided the maker of the iPod music player and iMac computer to its biggest profit ever.
DPA-AFX:
- BMW AG, the world’s largest luxury carmaker, plans to build a hydrogen-powered car within the next two years.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my Computer longs and Networking longs offset losses in my Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished modestly higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. The continuing weakness in semis is of concern. As well, investors continue to ignore most good news and focus on potential negatives. The major averages are not acting as though they are done with the recent correction.
Stocks Finish Slightly Higher, Led by Energy Shares
Indices
S&P 500 1,284.13 +.20%
DJIA 11,076.02 unch.
NASDAQ 2,267.03 +.22%
Russell 2000 728.04 +.23%
Wilshire 5000 12,914.81 +.22%
S&P Barra Growth 606.82 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 673.86 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 611.68 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.99 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 529.87 +.27%
Transports 4,454.02 -.05%
Utilities 400.81 +.22%
Put/Call .85 -2.30%
NYSE Arms .75 -.43%
Volatility(VIX) 11.37 -4.05%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -24.36%
US Dollar 90.54 -.34%
CRB 322.99 +1.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.95 +.30%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.85 +1.45%
Natural Gas 7.07 +.91%
Heating Oil 174.93 +.66%
Gold 547.20 -.05%
Base Metals 165.75 +.66%
Copper 224.50 -.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.71% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.99%
Energy +1.97%
Computer Hardware +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.91%
Steel -1.07%
Airlines -1.16%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Lowered STTX to Underperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bill Gross, CIO at PIMCO, told CNBC he expects one or two more interest-rate increases from the Fed.
- AstraZeneca Plc’s(AZN) cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor reduced artery-clogging plaque in test patients, the first time a pill has ever reversed the years of damage that lead to heart attacks, researchers said.
- Rambus Inc.(RMBS), after six years of pursuing patent litigation against memory chip makers, presents its first case to a jury this week at a trial against Hynix Semiconductor.
- General Motors(GM) will offer buyers as much as $1,000 per vehicle on older cars and trucks in US dealer inventories.
- Australian troops will stay in Iraq “well into” 2007, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson said.
- Crude oil is rising a second day in NY as the UN prepares to consider Iran’s refusal to end its nuclear research and colder weather in the northern US boosted heating fuel prices.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) paid CEO Jobs $1 in salary and no bonus in 2005 after he guided the maker of the iPod music player and iMac computer to its biggest profit ever.
DPA-AFX:
- BMW AG, the world’s largest luxury carmaker, plans to build a hydrogen-powered car within the next two years.
S&P 500 1,284.13 +.20%
DJIA 11,076.02 unch.
NASDAQ 2,267.03 +.22%
Russell 2000 728.04 +.23%
Wilshire 5000 12,914.81 +.22%
S&P Barra Growth 606.82 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 673.86 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 611.68 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.99 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 529.87 +.27%
Transports 4,454.02 -.05%
Utilities 400.81 +.22%
Put/Call .85 -2.30%
NYSE Arms .75 -.43%
Volatility(VIX) 11.37 -4.05%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -24.36%
US Dollar 90.54 -.34%
CRB 322.99 +1.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.95 +.30%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.85 +1.45%
Natural Gas 7.07 +.91%
Heating Oil 174.93 +.66%
Gold 547.20 -.05%
Base Metals 165.75 +.66%
Copper 224.50 -.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.71% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.99%
Energy +1.97%
Computer Hardware +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.91%
Steel -1.07%
Airlines -1.16%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Lowered STTX to Underperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bill Gross, CIO at PIMCO, told CNBC he expects one or two more interest-rate increases from the Fed.
- AstraZeneca Plc’s(AZN) cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor reduced artery-clogging plaque in test patients, the first time a pill has ever reversed the years of damage that lead to heart attacks, researchers said.
- Rambus Inc.(RMBS), after six years of pursuing patent litigation against memory chip makers, presents its first case to a jury this week at a trial against Hynix Semiconductor.
- General Motors(GM) will offer buyers as much as $1,000 per vehicle on older cars and trucks in US dealer inventories.
- Australian troops will stay in Iraq “well into” 2007, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson said.
- Crude oil is rising a second day in NY as the UN prepares to consider Iran’s refusal to end its nuclear research and colder weather in the northern US boosted heating fuel prices.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) paid CEO Jobs $1 in salary and no bonus in 2005 after he guided the maker of the iPod music player and iMac computer to its biggest profit ever.
DPA-AFX:
- BMW AG, the world’s largest luxury carmaker, plans to build a hydrogen-powered car within the next two years.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my Computer longs and Networking longs offset losses in my Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished modestly higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. The continuing weakness in semis is of concern. As well, investors continue to ignore most good news and focus on potential negatives. The major averages are not acting as though they are done with the recent correction.
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