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Thursday, April 06, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Nissan Motor, two years after rushing 200 engineers from Japan to fix problems at its newest US auto plant, says it has redoubled efforts to improve vehicle quality.
- The US House approved a measure aimed at banning multimillion-dollar contributions by wealthy supporters to independent political groups.
- City Council members approved a package of land use changes for the NY Yankees to build a new $800 million stadium in the South Bronx, across the street from where they’ve played baseball since 1923.
- Three New Jersey boys planning a “Columbine-like massacre” with a list of 25 students and teachers they were targeting have been locked up in Camden County Detention Center.
Wall Street Journal Asia:
- China’s three biggest personal computer makers have agreed to ship their products with Microsoft’s Windows operating system.
Reuters:
- Boeing(BA), Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), Motorola(MOT) and other US companies may sell $15 billion of products to China this month.
Financial Times:
- Prudential Plc’s former CEO Bloomer will join US hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management LP as an adviser.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.01%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AM)/.46
- (CKR)/.18
- (STZ)/.36
- (PIR)/.01
- (RAD)/.02
- (SOSA)/.16
- (TEX)/.81
Upcoming Splits
- (NVDA) 2-for-1
- (RY) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 305K versus 302K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated at 2483K versus 2483K prior.
Bloomberg:
- Nissan Motor, two years after rushing 200 engineers from Japan to fix problems at its newest US auto plant, says it has redoubled efforts to improve vehicle quality.
- The US House approved a measure aimed at banning multimillion-dollar contributions by wealthy supporters to independent political groups.
- City Council members approved a package of land use changes for the NY Yankees to build a new $800 million stadium in the South Bronx, across the street from where they’ve played baseball since 1923.
- Three New Jersey boys planning a “Columbine-like massacre” with a list of 25 students and teachers they were targeting have been locked up in Camden County Detention Center.
Wall Street Journal Asia:
- China’s three biggest personal computer makers have agreed to ship their products with Microsoft’s Windows operating system.
Reuters:
- Boeing(BA), Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), Motorola(MOT) and other US companies may sell $15 billion of products to China this month.
Financial Times:
- Prudential Plc’s former CEO Bloomer will join US hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management LP as an adviser.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.01%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AM)/.46
- (CKR)/.18
- (STZ)/.36
- (PIR)/.01
- (RAD)/.02
- (SOSA)/.16
- (TEX)/.81
Upcoming Splits
- (NVDA) 2-for-1
- (RY) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 305K versus 302K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated at 2483K versus 2483K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by exporting stocks in the region after a US report showed a strong service sector. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains throughout the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Led by Tech and Homebuilding Shares
Indices
S&P 500 1,311.56 +.43%
DJIA 11,239.55 +.32%
NASDAQ 2,359.75 +.61%
Russell 2000 766.26 +.52%
Wilshire 5000 13,262.75 +.45%
S&P Barra Growth 615.51 +.30%
S&P Barra Value 693.09 +.57%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.05 unch.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 832.39 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 557.64 +.75%
Transports 4,726.59 +.96%
Utilities 398.63 +.98%
Put/Call .84 +6.33%
NYSE Arms .81 +8.76%
Volatility(VIX) 11.13 -.09%
ISE Sentiment 167.00 +.60%
US Dollar 88.63 -.23%
CRB 336.12 +1.11%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.36 +.43%
Unleaded Gasoline 196.34 +.84%
Natural Gas 7.12 +.79%
Heating Oil 187.60 +.39%
Gold 593.60 +.19%
Base Metals 184.49 +2.69%
Copper 260.00 +.15%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.84% -.42%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.91%
Semis +2.76%
Computer Hardware +2.33%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -.46%
Papers -.51%
Restaurants -.71%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
UBS:
- Rated WBSN Buy, target $35.
- Rated CHKP Buy, target $23.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Lawmakers critical of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance law said small companies should be partially exempted from its audit requirement during the first hearing to consider revising the four-year-old statute.
- Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) said fourth-quarter profit rose 9.4% on sales of holiday gifts.
- Duke University men’s lacrosse coach Pressler resigned and the school canceled the team’s season amid allegations an exotic dancer was raped at a team party.
Real Estate Alert:
- A steady rise in cargo traffic at the Port Authority of NY and New Jersey has created a need for more storage space and increased property value in northern and central New Jersey by as much as 70%.
Australian Financial Review:
- Rio Tinto Group(RTP) CEO Clifford said the recent surge in uranium prices wasn’t sustainable.
S&P 500 1,311.56 +.43%
DJIA 11,239.55 +.32%
NASDAQ 2,359.75 +.61%
Russell 2000 766.26 +.52%
Wilshire 5000 13,262.75 +.45%
S&P Barra Growth 615.51 +.30%
S&P Barra Value 693.09 +.57%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.05 unch.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 832.39 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 557.64 +.75%
Transports 4,726.59 +.96%
Utilities 398.63 +.98%
Put/Call .84 +6.33%
NYSE Arms .81 +8.76%
Volatility(VIX) 11.13 -.09%
ISE Sentiment 167.00 +.60%
US Dollar 88.63 -.23%
CRB 336.12 +1.11%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.36 +.43%
Unleaded Gasoline 196.34 +.84%
Natural Gas 7.12 +.79%
Heating Oil 187.60 +.39%
Gold 593.60 +.19%
Base Metals 184.49 +2.69%
Copper 260.00 +.15%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.84% -.42%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.91%
Semis +2.76%
Computer Hardware +2.33%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -.46%
Papers -.51%
Restaurants -.71%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
UBS:
- Rated WBSN Buy, target $35.
- Rated CHKP Buy, target $23.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Lawmakers critical of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance law said small companies should be partially exempted from its audit requirement during the first hearing to consider revising the four-year-old statute.
- Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) said fourth-quarter profit rose 9.4% on sales of holiday gifts.
- Duke University men’s lacrosse coach Pressler resigned and the school canceled the team’s season amid allegations an exotic dancer was raped at a team party.
Real Estate Alert:
- A steady rise in cargo traffic at the Port Authority of NY and New Jersey has created a need for more storage space and increased property value in northern and central New Jersey by as much as 70%.
Australian Financial Review:
- Rio Tinto Group(RTP) CEO Clifford said the recent surge in uranium prices wasn’t sustainable.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Internet longs, Semi longs and Computer longs. I covered the remainder of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bullish. Homebuilding, technology and energy shares paced today's gainers. The 10-year yield finished near session lows at 4.83%, despite the market's advance, hints of a strong employment number on Friday and better-than-expected economic data today. The Nasdaq has almost all its leadership back, which bodes well for my prediction that it would substantially outperform the market during the second quarter.
Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour as Long-term Rates Fall and Fed "Pause" Speculation Rises
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. The bearish sentiment regarding bonds right now is elevated. Moreover, a strong employment report on Friday is widely anticipated. While a modest sell-off in bonds is likely, an extreme negative reaction to a strong employment report appears unlikely. A below-expectations report would likely lead to a vigorous bond rally. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates and optimism in the tech sector.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Saks Inc.(SKS) and Federated Department Stores Inc.(FD) are betting dresses are coming back.
- Walt Disney Co.(DIS) in June will start selling wireless phone service that gives parents control over children’s usage.
- Congress is likely to approve measures this year to tighten security at US ports, including requiring the installation of radiation and nuclear detectors.
- Ten-year Treasuries advanced after a Federal Reserve official suggested US interest-rate increases are nearing an end.
- US mortgage applications posted their strongest gain last week in more than two months, as both home purchases and refinancing rose.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) introduced software that will let its newest computers run Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows XP Programs.
Wall Street Journal:
- A Montana geologist who bought up oil field leases when others predicted wells would go dry has sparked an energy production revival in the state.
- Fidelity Investments, already a household name among mutual-fund managers, is pushing into pension funds and endowments to boost its earnings.
- Pay By Touch, Microbia Inc. and other startup technology companies are increasingly turning to hedge funds as investors, rather than private-equity or venture-capital firms.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) and other US publishers face a growing threat from free dailies.
- General Electric’s(GE) NBC Universal and Publicis Groupe SA’s Starcom media-buying unit are testing whether television viewers pay more attention to ads aired during shorter commercial breaks.
NY Times:
- Many American families are trying to have dinner together, a ritual which has declined for decades, citing a survey.
- Toll Brothers(TOL), the largest US builder of luxury homes, is entering the real-estate market in NYC with five projects under development.
- Saks Inc.(SKS) and Federated Department Stores Inc.(FD) are betting dresses are coming back.
- Walt Disney Co.(DIS) in June will start selling wireless phone service that gives parents control over children’s usage.
- Congress is likely to approve measures this year to tighten security at US ports, including requiring the installation of radiation and nuclear detectors.
- Ten-year Treasuries advanced after a Federal Reserve official suggested US interest-rate increases are nearing an end.
- US mortgage applications posted their strongest gain last week in more than two months, as both home purchases and refinancing rose.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) introduced software that will let its newest computers run Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows XP Programs.
Wall Street Journal:
- A Montana geologist who bought up oil field leases when others predicted wells would go dry has sparked an energy production revival in the state.
- Fidelity Investments, already a household name among mutual-fund managers, is pushing into pension funds and endowments to boost its earnings.
- Pay By Touch, Microbia Inc. and other startup technology companies are increasingly turning to hedge funds as investors, rather than private-equity or venture-capital firms.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) and other US publishers face a growing threat from free dailies.
- General Electric’s(GE) NBC Universal and Publicis Groupe SA’s Starcom media-buying unit are testing whether television viewers pay more attention to ads aired during shorter commercial breaks.
NY Times:
- Many American families are trying to have dinner together, a ritual which has declined for decades, citing a survey.
- Toll Brothers(TOL), the largest US builder of luxury homes, is entering the real-estate market in NYC with five projects under development.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Strong, Prices Paid Falls Again
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for March rose to 60.5 versus estimates of 59.0 and a reading of 60.1 in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Cash-rich companies and consumers cheered by brighter job prospects kept US service industries expanding last month, fueling economic growth heading into the second quarter, Bloomberg reported. The new orders component of the index rose to 59.5 from 56.2 the prior month. The employment gauge fell to 54.6 from a reading of 58.2 in February. The prices paid component of the index fell to 60.5 from 64.8 the prior month. This component has now dropped 22.8% from Sept. 05 highs. I expect ISM Non-Manufacturing to fall back to more average levels over the coming months and the prices paid component to continue to decelerate.
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