Monday, July 10, 2006

Stocks Finish Mixed on Weakness in Tech Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,267.34 +.15%
DJIA 11,103.55 +.12%
NASDAQ 2,116.93 -.62%
Russell 2000 709.08 -.03%
Wilshire 5000 12,739.66 +.08%
S&P Barra Growth 584.58 +.12%
S&P Barra Value 681.28 +.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 614.39 +.72%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 816.27 +.43%
Morgan Stanley Technology 475.65 -1.31%
Transports 4,861.30 +.37%
Utilities 418.86 +.53%
Put/Call .93 +4.49%
NYSE Arms 1.27 -16.35%
Volatility(VIX) 14.02 +.36%
ISE Sentiment 159.00 +28.23%
US Dollar 85.48 +.55%
CRB 346.67 -.40%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 73.44 -.23%
Unleaded Gasoline 217.05 -.19%
Natural Gas 5.61 +.04%
Heating Oil 196.15 -.15%
Gold 625.50 -.10%
Base Metals 228.81 +.61%
Copper 355.75 -.70%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.12% unch.

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.69%
HMOs +1.11%
REITs +1.09%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.20%
Networking -2.41%
Disk Drives -2.60%

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Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US, Japan and other backers of a UN resolution aimed at cracking down on North Korea’s ballistic missile program delayed a vote on the draft measure to give China a chance to reach a diplomatic solution.
- Alcoa Inc.(AA) said second-quarter profit surged 62% to a record $744 million on higher prices and increased demand from makers of aircraft, building materials and drink cans.

AP:
- One billion people could die from tobacco use by the end of the century, 10 times the mortality rate of the last century, citing public health officials.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Networking longs and Medical longs. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished modestly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. Meaningful losses were mainly confined to the tech sector. On the positive side, volume was below average, oil fell slightly, bears were unable to gain significant traction and bonds maintained recent gains. I am looking for more choppiness in the near term for the major averages.

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour on Weakness in Tech Shares

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs, Networking longs and Medical longs. I added to my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts and exited a Semi long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. It appears worries over economic growth are increasing. I continue to believe U.S. growth is just slowing and worst case fears of an imminent recession are way overdone. At current stock market valuations, in my opinion, consumer spending would have to plunge for the bears to be proven correct. I find this prospect highly unlikely. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as lower energy prices and stable long-term rates offset worries over slowing economic growth.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Kimco Realty(KIM), the largest US owner of community shopping centers, agreed to buy Pan Pacific Retail Properties for $2.9 billion to expand on the US West Coast.
- Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs(GS) who was sworn in today as the nation’s 74th Treasury secretary, said he will work to keep the US economy strong and expand trade.
- Boeing(BA), for the first time in 6 years, is set to come out ahead of Airbus SAS in the race for new plane orders.
- Crude oil fell for a third day on speculation that the record price reached last week when North Korea test-fired at least seven missiles was unjustified.
- Marathon Oil(MRO) announced the first ethanol investment by a major US oil company in 26 years, saying it plans to build plants with grains marketer Andersons(ANDE) to meet rising demand.

Wall Street Journal:
- Saudi Arabia and Chevron(CVX) are testing a process for extracting heavy oil that was previously considered inaccessible.
- The FDA is preparing regulatory guidelines for “adaptive trial” testing of medicines that allows studies to change as they progress.
- Wealthy South Koreans are investing in US real estate, betting that its value will outpace Korean property, and they will get an extra boost from a strengthening of the US dollar.

Boston Globe:
- IBM(IBM) plans to start selling the first version of its Lotus Notes software for Linux operating system users as an alternative to Microsoft(MSFT) programs.

NY Magazine:
- Former NYSE Chairman Richard Grasso is helping Joe Grano, former chairman of UBS PaineWebber, start a private-equity firm.

NY Times:
- Time Warner’s(TWX) AOL unit is considering slashing marketing for its Internet access service, reducing fees and cutting thousands of jobs in order to concentrate on building free services.
- Men are less likely than women to get bachelor’s degrees, and they are also getting worse grades than women in college classes, citing US Education Dept. stats.

Women’s Wear Daily:
- Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts is leading the bidding for US athletic-shoe retailer Foot Locker(FL).

Gulf News:
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) is in talks with United Arab Emirates telecom companies Emirates Telecom and Du to start a Voice over Internet Protocol network in the region.

Wholesale Inventories Rise as Sales Increase

- Wholesale Inventories for May rose .8% versus estimates of a .5% increase and an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in April.
BOTTOM LINE: Inventories at US wholesalers rose more than expected in May, led by gains in business equipment and machinery and a jump in petroleum stockpiles, Bloomberg said. Sales rose 1.6% versus a 1.5% gain in April. The inventory-to-sales ratio dropped to a record low of 1.15 months. Sales of durable goods rose 2.6% versus a .2% increase in April. Inventories of metals rose 2.9% versus a 4.5% jump in April. I expect inventory rebuilding to add to economic growth over the intermediate-term as corporations gain confidence in the durability of the current expansion.

Links of Interest

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Sunday, July 09, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush said Congress needs to make temporary tax cuts permanent and increase funding for basic research in math, science, computers and energy to keep the US economy thriving.
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for Islamic nations to “mobilize” to “remove” Israel, which he termed the “main problem” of the Islamic world.
- Corporate tax receipts this year will likely cross the $300 billion threshold for the first time ever, boosting President Bush’s effort to trim the US budget deficit. The Congressional Budget Office, in a monthly review released yesterday, estimated that corporate tax receipts would exceed $330 billion in fiscal 2006, up 18% from 2005.
- Treasury investors, encouraged by slowing jobs growth, are more bullish than they have been since the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
- A UN resolution that would impose sanctions on North Korea is the only way to respond to its missile launches, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said.
- Roger Federer snapped his losing streak against Rafael Nadal and became the first man since Pete Sampras to win four straight Wimbledon titles.
- “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” the sequel to the 2003 Walt Disney(DIS) hit, took in a record $132 million in estimated ticket sales, the most ever for a three-day debut.
- Italy beat France 5-3 in a penalty shootout to win soccer’s World Cup for a European record fourth time after Zinedine Zidane scored and got a red card in the French captain’s last game in Berlin.
- China is in the best position to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons, US lawmakers and Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said on network television news show today.
- Scientists discovered a genetic change that doubles the risk of breast cancer, a finding that may lead to better screening and treatment of the disease.

Wall Street Journal:
- China may force foreign companies to allow labor unions under a proposed legal change that would affect firms including Wal-Mart Stores(WMT).

NY Times:
- US tax receipts have been greater than expected this year and will lead to a decline in the US budget deficit. The US is expected to announce July 11 that tax receipts from corporations and wealthy will be about $250 billion more than last year, and the deficit is anticipated to be about $100 billion less than the White House forecast six months ago.
- US regulators may approve as early as next week a new once-daily HIV drug that combines Bristol-Myers Squibb’s(BMY) Sustiva and Gilead Sciences’(GILD) Truvada.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) focused on its integrated-circuits business and invented new uses for its processors to recapture the market share it lost when it strayed into other product lines.

Washington Post:
- President Bush will allow greater cooperation with Russia in the peaceful use of nuclear power.

Detroit Free Press:
- Oakland County, Michigan, may sell $500 million in bonds to pay for retirees’ health-care costs over the next 30 years.

Financial Times:
- Kraft Foods(KFT) has paid about $1.1 billion to acquire part of United Biscuits Group.
- French and German union leaders will oppose a possible three-way alliance between General Motors(GM), Nissan Motor and Renault SA, as it could accelerate the move of jobs out of Western Europe.
- The performance of hedge funds steadied in early July after the industry’s most difficult two-month period in at least five years, citing unidentified investors.

Sunday Times:
- Hilton Hotels(HLT) plans to expand the number of properties it has worldwide by more than a third.

Xinhua News Agency:
- Yum! Brands’(YUM) KFC chain plans to open 100 drive-through outlets in China within three years.

Yomiuri:
- Japan may deploy three of four Patriot interceptor missile systems earlier than planned after North Korea test-fired missiles this week.

Folha de S.Paulo:
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) forecast sales from its Brazilian operations will rise to $18.3 billion in 10 years.

Nihon Keizai:
- Japan is making steady progress toward ending deflation, the government will say in its report on the economy and fiscal policy.

Middle East Economic Survey:
- White Nile Operating Co. expects to boost production at its Thar Jath field in Sudan to 60,000 barrels a day.

AFP:
- Make Oil AG plans to build a refinery in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq to process crude from a newly discovered oil field in the region.

China Securities Journal:
- China’s money supply grew at the slowest pace in six months after the central bank stepped up efforts to drain money from the banking system.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (GD) and (LGF).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.10%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AA)/.86
- (CHTT)/.58
- (EMMS)/-.05
- (HELE)/.26
- (IRBT)/-.20
- (SCHN)/.95
- (SGR)/.37
- (SMSC)/.24

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for May are estimated to rise .5% versus a .9% increase in April.

3:00 pm EST:
- Consumer Credit for May is estimated to fall to $3.2B versus $10.6B in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, weighed down by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.