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Thursday, September 14, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Legislation authorizing key parts of President Bush’s anti-terrorism strategy advanced in Congress, setting up votes in the House and Senate.
- Chevron Corp.(CVX) is in talks to join with Chinese petroleum producers on exploration and production projects one year after beating out China’s Cnooc Ltd. to acquire Unocal Corp.
- Microsoft(MSFT) boosted its dividend by 11% as the company seeks to distribute more of its $34 billion cash hoard.
- Business confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell in September from three months earlier, according to the Reuters monthly Tanken survey. Sentiment fell to 30 from 39 in June.
- China halted sales of brokerages to overseas firms, thwarting plans by Citigroup(C), Merrill Lynch(MER) and other securities companies to increase trading in the country.
Wall Street Journal:
- The US, European Union and Canada plan to make a complaint to the World Trade Organization about China’s tariffs on auto parts.
Financial Times:
- Poland has emerged as the main potential source of new troops for NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, after the alliance put out an urgent request for more troops.
Xinhua:
- Chinas Premier Wen Jiabao personally signed guidelines giving state-run Xinhua News Agency administrative and censorship powers over foreign new agencies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (DG), target $17.
- Reiterated Buy on (HUM), target $75.
- Reiterated Buy on (IDTI), target $22.
- Reiterated Buy on (INTU), target $36.
CSFB:
- Global steel prices have begun falling as we envisioned. In view of the inventory glut in the US, price declines could be worse than those during 1H 2005, leading to a prolonged deterioration in the market.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ADBE)/.26
- (BSC)/2.87
- (PIR)/-.28
- (TEK)/.33
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for August is estimated to rise .3% versus a .9% gain in July.
- Advance Retail Sales for August are estimated to fall .2% versus a 1.4% increase in July.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for August are estimated to rise .3% versus a 1.0% gain in July.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 315K versus 310K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2495K versus 2492K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for July are estimated to rise .5% versus a .8% increase in June.
Bloomberg:
- Legislation authorizing key parts of President Bush’s anti-terrorism strategy advanced in Congress, setting up votes in the House and Senate.
- Chevron Corp.(CVX) is in talks to join with Chinese petroleum producers on exploration and production projects one year after beating out China’s Cnooc Ltd. to acquire Unocal Corp.
- Microsoft(MSFT) boosted its dividend by 11% as the company seeks to distribute more of its $34 billion cash hoard.
- Business confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell in September from three months earlier, according to the Reuters monthly Tanken survey. Sentiment fell to 30 from 39 in June.
- China halted sales of brokerages to overseas firms, thwarting plans by Citigroup(C), Merrill Lynch(MER) and other securities companies to increase trading in the country.
Wall Street Journal:
- The US, European Union and Canada plan to make a complaint to the World Trade Organization about China’s tariffs on auto parts.
Financial Times:
- Poland has emerged as the main potential source of new troops for NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, after the alliance put out an urgent request for more troops.
Xinhua:
- Chinas Premier Wen Jiabao personally signed guidelines giving state-run Xinhua News Agency administrative and censorship powers over foreign new agencies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (DG), target $17.
- Reiterated Buy on (HUM), target $75.
- Reiterated Buy on (IDTI), target $22.
- Reiterated Buy on (INTU), target $36.
CSFB:
- Global steel prices have begun falling as we envisioned. In view of the inventory glut in the US, price declines could be worse than those during 1H 2005, leading to a prolonged deterioration in the market.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ADBE)/.26
- (BSC)/2.87
- (PIR)/-.28
- (TEK)/.33
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for August is estimated to rise .3% versus a .9% gain in July.
- Advance Retail Sales for August are estimated to fall .2% versus a 1.4% increase in July.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for August are estimated to rise .3% versus a 1.0% gain in July.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 315K versus 310K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2495K versus 2492K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for July are estimated to rise .5% versus a .8% increase in June.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Stocks Finish Modestly Higher, Building on Recent Gains
Indices
S&P 1,318.07 +.38%
DJIA 11,543.32 +.39%
NASDAQ 2,227.67 +.53%
Russell 2000 730.70 +.86%
Wilshire 5000 13,186.82 +.46%
S&P Barra Growth 612.54 +.21%
S&P Barra Value 703.37 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 648.68 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 822.31 +1.0%
Morgan Stanley Technology 519.98 +.13%
Transports 4,451.45 +1.87%
Utilities 429.81 +.41%
Put/Call .75 -20.21%
NYSE Arms .79 -11.83%
Volatility(VIX) 11.18 -6.21%
ISE Sentiment 113.00 -.88%
US Dollar 85.86 -.07%
CRB 311.27 +.18%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.10 +.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.50 +.83%
Natural Gas 5.40 -3.03%
Heating Oil 175.00 -.55%
Gold 596.70 +.07%
Base Metals 226.00 -.87%
Copper 339.45 +.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.75% -.25%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.14%
Steel +2.62%
I-Banks +2.39%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.27%
Gaming -.47%
Semis -.76%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Natural gas fell to the lowest in almost two years in NY as moderate US temperatures cut demand for the fuel and speculators abandoned losing bets on the commodity.
- Xilinx(XLNX) said second-quarter sales may fall 4-7%, slightly more than originally forecast. The stock is down .02 on the news.
Mobile Press-Register:
- Nascar driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. and two siblings are part of a group that plans to build a $624 million auto-racing track in southwestern Alabama.
S&P 1,318.07 +.38%
DJIA 11,543.32 +.39%
NASDAQ 2,227.67 +.53%
Russell 2000 730.70 +.86%
Wilshire 5000 13,186.82 +.46%
S&P Barra Growth 612.54 +.21%
S&P Barra Value 703.37 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 648.68 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 822.31 +1.0%
Morgan Stanley Technology 519.98 +.13%
Transports 4,451.45 +1.87%
Utilities 429.81 +.41%
Put/Call .75 -20.21%
NYSE Arms .79 -11.83%
Volatility(VIX) 11.18 -6.21%
ISE Sentiment 113.00 -.88%
US Dollar 85.86 -.07%
CRB 311.27 +.18%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.10 +.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.50 +.83%
Natural Gas 5.40 -3.03%
Heating Oil 175.00 -.55%
Gold 596.70 +.07%
Base Metals 226.00 -.87%
Copper 339.45 +.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.75% -.25%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.14%
Steel +2.62%
I-Banks +2.39%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.27%
Gaming -.47%
Semis -.76%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Natural gas fell to the lowest in almost two years in NY as moderate US temperatures cut demand for the fuel and speculators abandoned losing bets on the commodity.
- Xilinx(XLNX) said second-quarter sales may fall 4-7%, slightly more than originally forecast. The stock is down .02 on the news.
Mobile Press-Register:
- Nascar driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. and two siblings are part of a group that plans to build a $624 million auto-racing track in southwestern Alabama.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. Natural gas finished near session lows and oil barely bounced notwithstanding recent declines. The tone of the broad market is very good right now and feels more like November than September. I suspect this bodes very well for a strong finish to the year. Tomorrow's import price index will likely rise less than estimates, while retail sales will probably exceed estimates.
Stocks Modstly Higher into Final Hour, Led by I-Banking Shares
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I added to my (ISRG) long and took profits in a trading long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Google (GOOG) is trading up 10, back above $400. Google is one of the greatest growth stocks in the world trading at a very reasonable valuation, in my opinion. I suspect it is in the early stages of another stunning move higher. I remain long the stock. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH), buoyed by stock and bond trading in the third quarter, extending the longest streak of earnings gains on Wall Street.
- US homebuilders’ shares gained this week, led by KB Home(KBH), Hovnanian(HOV) and Pulte Homes(PHM), as investors bought on expectations of a rebound.
- Global investment in real estate may increase 26% to $600 billion this year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
- Peruvian stocks became the world’s best performers this year as metals prices soared. A slump in silver, gold, copper and zinc, whose producers account for half the trading on the Lima exchange, may end the five-year rally.
- Mortgage applications in the US rose last week to the highest level in more than three months after a recent decline in borrowing costs spurred home buying.
- France, whose lenders account for 24% of bank loans to Iran, may reject a US campaign to sever financial ties with the Middle Eastern nation.
Wall Street Journal:
- ESPN drew a network record 12.6 million viewers for the first game of its opening National Football League doubleheader two nights ago, citing Nielsen Media Research.
- Goldman Sachs Group’s(GS) Global Alpha fund, a hedge fund offered to the investment bank’s wealthiest clients, lost nearly 10% of its value in August.
- Some celestial beings in the hedge-fund firmament are being made to seem all-too-human this year.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb’s(BMY) appointment of James Cornelius as interim CEO has spurred conjecture that the company is seeking to be acquired.
- Hitachi Ltd. developed the ability to store 345 gigabits, or billions of bits, of data per square inch on a disk drive, 212 gigabits more than the current maximum.
NY Times:
- The American Medical Assoc., which has never before demanded regulation of a food ingredient, in June called on the FDA to regulate salt.
NY Post:
- The New York Board of Trade’s board of governors is expected to agree today to be bought by Intercontinental Exchange(ICE) for about $1 billion.
LA Times:
- Nine major US ports received a record amount of cargo in July, citing Global Insight.
Star-Ledger:
- Red Bull GmbH and Anschutz Entertainment Group are building a $220 million stadium for the NY Red Bulls, a soccer team named for the energy-drink maker.
Financial Times:
- The US auto-parts industry is showing some signs of life.
La Tribune:
- The French government is considering a “social tax” on stock options to “raise funds” for its 2007 budget.
Milliyet:
- The IMF said Turkey and other emerging markets could face a second capital flight of the kind that caused the lira to slump in May and June.
China Land and Resources News:
- China discovered one super-size and three smaller lead and zinc mines in the central Henan province. The discovery is the biggest by reserves in decades.
- Lehman Brothers(LEH), buoyed by stock and bond trading in the third quarter, extending the longest streak of earnings gains on Wall Street.
- US homebuilders’ shares gained this week, led by KB Home(KBH), Hovnanian(HOV) and Pulte Homes(PHM), as investors bought on expectations of a rebound.
- Global investment in real estate may increase 26% to $600 billion this year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
- Peruvian stocks became the world’s best performers this year as metals prices soared. A slump in silver, gold, copper and zinc, whose producers account for half the trading on the Lima exchange, may end the five-year rally.
- Mortgage applications in the US rose last week to the highest level in more than three months after a recent decline in borrowing costs spurred home buying.
- France, whose lenders account for 24% of bank loans to Iran, may reject a US campaign to sever financial ties with the Middle Eastern nation.
Wall Street Journal:
- ESPN drew a network record 12.6 million viewers for the first game of its opening National Football League doubleheader two nights ago, citing Nielsen Media Research.
- Goldman Sachs Group’s(GS) Global Alpha fund, a hedge fund offered to the investment bank’s wealthiest clients, lost nearly 10% of its value in August.
- Some celestial beings in the hedge-fund firmament are being made to seem all-too-human this year.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb’s(BMY) appointment of James Cornelius as interim CEO has spurred conjecture that the company is seeking to be acquired.
- Hitachi Ltd. developed the ability to store 345 gigabits, or billions of bits, of data per square inch on a disk drive, 212 gigabits more than the current maximum.
NY Times:
- The American Medical Assoc., which has never before demanded regulation of a food ingredient, in June called on the FDA to regulate salt.
NY Post:
- The New York Board of Trade’s board of governors is expected to agree today to be bought by Intercontinental Exchange(ICE) for about $1 billion.
LA Times:
- Nine major US ports received a record amount of cargo in July, citing Global Insight.
Star-Ledger:
- Red Bull GmbH and Anschutz Entertainment Group are building a $220 million stadium for the NY Red Bulls, a soccer team named for the energy-drink maker.
Financial Times:
- The US auto-parts industry is showing some signs of life.
La Tribune:
- The French government is considering a “social tax” on stock options to “raise funds” for its 2007 budget.
Milliyet:
- The IMF said Turkey and other emerging markets could face a second capital flight of the kind that caused the lira to slump in May and June.
China Land and Resources News:
- China discovered one super-size and three smaller lead and zinc mines in the central Henan province. The discovery is the biggest by reserves in decades.
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