Thursday, November 09, 2006

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A judge in Argentina issued an international arrest warrant for Iran’s former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani over the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires.
- Britain will be a target of terrorists “for a generation” as it faces a “serious, growing” and “sustained” threat of attack, citing MI5 director-general Eliza Manningham-Buller.
- Boeing(BA) won an order to replace the fleet of helicopters that rescue downed US pilots, a program that may be worth as much as $15 billion.
- Genentech(DNA) agreed to acquire Tanox Inc., a collaborator on the asthma treatment Xolair, for $919 million.
- Activist investor Bill Ackman, of NY-based hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management LP, said he purchased an 11% stake in Borders Group(BGP).
- Democrats are taking a go-slow approach to regulating hedge funds and may consider changes sought by Wall Street to the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate-accounting law, reflecting the priorities of financial firms that gave a majority of their donations to Democrats. In the first half of the year, employees of the 100 largest hedge funds and 50 biggest buyout firms contributed $7.4 million, and Democrats received $5 million of that money, Federal Election Commission records show.
- Chevron Corp.(CVX) said it made a “significant” natural gas discovery off Western Australia.
- China’s October producer prices grew at the slowest pace since May as increases in the costs of oil and minerals including zinc and copper slowed.
- The yen rose from a record low against the euro as Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said interest-rate increases will help extend the economic recovery.

Dow Jones:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) is pressuring Chrysler Group, its US operation, to ready a turnaround plan by next month aimed at reviving earnings.

Financial Times:
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) may be sold to a group of private equity buyers as early as next week.
- Archer Daniels Midland(ADM) wants renewable energy resources to be treated the same as fossil fuels by governments and regulators, citing CEO Woertz.

Economic Daily:
- Sony(SNE) will buy flat panels from AU Optronics(AUO) and Chi Mei Optoelectronics next year for televisions measuring 40-inches and smaller.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $29.

Business Week:
- Goodrich(GR), the world’s largest supplier of aircraft landing gear that’s benefiting from a rebound in airline orders, could become a takeover target, citing Jeffrey Kleintop at PNC Wealth Management, which owns shares.
- Hovnanian Enterprises(HOV) may rise as much as 80% after the share price was cut in half this year as homebuilder shares declined, citing Schaeffer’s Investment Research CEO Bernie Schaeffer, who owns shares.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.01%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CHC)/.41
- (HEW)/.26

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in energy stocks offset losses in automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Evening Review Links

Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

***Alert***

Blogging will be light today due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Democrats won a US Senate seat in Virginia, giving them majorities of both chambers of Congress for the first time in 12 years.
- Time Warner(TWX) sold $5 billion of bonds in its first sale since 2002 to refinance debt and buy back stock.
- A federal judge temporarily blocked a law approved yesterday by California voters that bars registered sex offenders from living within 2,000 feet of a school or a park frequented by children. US District Court Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco issued an order halting the state from enforcing the new law, saying a sex offender who sued today is likely to succeed on his claim that the restriction is unconstitutional.
- Over-sized dogs and those without photo identification in Beijing are being snatched by the city police to curb the spread of rabies, which has killed about 200 people a month in China this year.
- Archer Daniels Midland(ADM), the world’s biggest grain processor and ethanol producer, said it may expand its se of palm oil in Indonesia and sugar in Brazil to produce bio-fuels as demand for alternative energy soars.
- As many as 60 million Chinese are considered obese, 20 million of them suffer from diabetes while 160 million have high blood pressure, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday on its Web site.

International Oil Daily:
- Natural Fuel Ltd., an Australian renewable energy company, will build a $130 million biodiesel plant in Singapore, citing the CEO.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AIG)/1.42
- (CPKI)/.33
- (DLB)/.11
- (ENER)/.09
- (EXPE)/.30
- (GLBC)/-1.55
- (GT)/.24
- (HANS)/.33
- (JCP)/1.22
- (KG)/.38
- (KSS)/.64
- (MTZ)/.24
- (NVDA)/.34
- (RRI)/.34
- (SNDA)/.18
- (TXU)/1.95
- (URBN)/.18
- (VIA)/.48
- (DIS)/.34

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for September is estimated to shrink to -$66.0 billion versus -$69.9 billion in August.
- The Import Price Index for September is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -2.1% decline in August.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 318K versus 327K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 24245K versus 2415K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated at 93.6 versus 93.6 the prior month.
- Wholesale Inventories for September are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.1% gain in August.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs on Less Political Uncertainty, Microsoft's Vista News and Short-Covering

Indices
S&P 500 1,385.72 +.21%
DJIA 12,176.54 +.16%
NASDAQ 2,384.94 +.38%
Russell 2000 769.84 +.71%
Wilshire 5000 13,876.54 +.30%
S&P Barra Growth 642.81 +.05%
S&P Barra Value 740.79 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 675.27 +.06%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 857.96 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 557.35 +.12%
Transports 4,723.26 +.10%
Utilities 446.99 +.99%
Put/Call .77 +1.32%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +16.88%
Volatility(VIX) 10.75 -3.07%
ISE Sentiment 141.0 -18.02%
US Dollar 85.48 +.06%
CRB 313.23 +.64%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.0 +1.80%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.0 +2.36%
Natural Gas 7.86 +1.42%
Heating Oil 171.50 +2.07%
Gold 617.50 -.13%
Base Metals 246.02 -1.12%
Copper 325.50 +.32%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.63% -.51%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +2.73%
Oil Service +2.18%
Tobacco +1.71%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.14%
Drugs -1.64%
HMOs -3.51%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) said first-quarter profit gained 28% as clients bought more gear to provide faster Internet video. The shares surged 10% in after-hours trading.
- Microsoft(MSFT) said it finished its new Windows Vista in time to release it to businesses this month and consumers in January.
- Copper fell almost 4% to 5-month lows as rising stockpiles and the start of labor talks at the biggest mine in Chile eased concern that supplies will fall short of demand.
- Steel demand and production growth worldwide may slow in 2007 as global economies decelerate, the OECD said.

Les Echos:
- French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, head of the governing Union for the Popular Movement party, cited France’s 35-hour work week and the high tax system as factors in high French unemployment. The 35-hour work week is a “catastrophe,” because it makes France less competitive than other countries. France also needs to reform its fiscal system, including the scrapping of inheritance taxes, he said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Biotech longs and Telecom longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. The S&P 500 is very close to its high of 10 days ago. It is now 13% higher for the year. With an overwhelming majority of U.S. hedge fund and mutual fund managers underperforming this benchmark, I suspect another meaningful stock market surge has begun as performance anxiety rises again. Greater P/E multiple expansion is likely over the coming weeks as the U.S. imminent recession view fades rapidly. I want to reiterate the fact that there has never been this much money in U.S. history betting against U.S. stocks at a time of DJIA all-time highs. Moreover, the public is the most skeptical of recent stock market gains. The herd still believes the U.S. is in a secular bear market. I continue to believe the many bears remain stunningly complacent given the current environment for U.S. stocks and recent gains.