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Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Plunging Oil is Offsetting Profit-taking Ahead of Earnings Season
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Airline longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is above average. Oil is falling another $2.04, to $50.95. OPEC's recent actions and comments lead me to conclude that OPEC has come to the realization, which I have been pointing out for several months, that it needs lower oil prices to try and prevent any further long-term demand destruction and loss of market share. As well, The Guardian is reporting that Iran's President is facing increasing hostility toward his policies. In an unprecedented rebuke, 150 members of the Iranian parliament signed a letter criticizing his recent actions. I am not hearing many talk about this, but it could be another one of the many reasons for the extreme weakness in oil. Energy-related stocks were investors' favorite sector coming into the new year. This has likely resulted in even greater portfolio manager underperformance this year as most energy shares are down 7%-10% already. In my opinion, it is not too late to sell these shares as the recent plunge in prices and very likely further oil price declines are not factored into the stocks at current levels. As I cautioned many times last year, commodity stocks look the cheapest on a valuation basis when they are at their most dangerous. If I were substantially behind the major averages this year due to the decline in commodity stocks, I would cut that weighting now and add more growth stock exposure as I think that growth stock outperformance through year-end will be significant. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism and bargain-hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is plunging another $2.14/bbl. to a 19-month low of $50.86/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister rejected calls for more production cuts.
- Benon Sevan, who ran the corruption-riddled UN/Iraq Oil-for-food program, was indicted in the US for allegedly accepting $160,000 in bribes to help former dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime, the 14th person charged in the oil-for-food scandal.
- Landry’s Restaurants(LNY) offered to buy Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group for $64.4 million to increase the number of upscale locations it operates.
- Centex Corp.(CTX) and KB Home(KBH) said quarterly earnings were depressed by $800 million in costs to write off the value of land and abandon options to buy more property.
- Symantec(SYMC) said third-quarter profit and sales missed its forecast, citing its data management unit.
- Copper prices in NY fell for the third session in a row on speculation demand will lag behind supplies with global inventories of the metal close to the highest since July 2004.
- US railroads will get new rules by 2008 for redesigning tank cars to keep chemicals from leaking during an accident.
- Shares of OMI Inc.(OMM) and General Maritime(GMR), the second and third-biggest US oil tanker operators, were downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald LP, which said lower OPEC shipments and growth in vessel fleets will hurt profit.
Wall Street Journal:
- Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom, founders of Skype Technologies SA, are supporting an online broadband video company called Joost that could let viewers watch professional video on personal computers with better quality.
- US retailers are encouraging customers to switch from credit cards to debit cards with lower processing fees.
- Smaller US companies with proven ability to make steady progress no matter what the state of the economy are attracting interest from mutual-fund managers.
NY Post:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube unit has started carrying commodities trading advice from a former New York Merc silver trader.
The Guardian:
- More than half of Iran’s parliament signed a letter criticizing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance on the economy. The signatories also criticized Ahmadinejad’s stance on the international dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is losing patience with Ahmadinejad. “There is a probability that he cannot even finish his current four-year period,” said Eesa Scharkhiz, an Iranian political commentator.
Handelsblatt:
- Chemical makers worldwide may see slower earnings and sales growth and narrower profit margins this year, citing analysts at rating companies including S&P and Fitch.
Interfax:
- Russia has completed the delivery of new surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, citing Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
Expansion:
- Billionaire investor George Soros said it doesn’t make sense to imagine a future in which the euro replaces the US dollar as the global currency of reference.
Jerusalem Post:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the word’s largest computer-chip maker, may enter a joint venture with STMicroelectronics NV and a private investor that will reorganize its flash memory division.
- Crude oil is plunging another $2.14/bbl. to a 19-month low of $50.86/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister rejected calls for more production cuts.
- Benon Sevan, who ran the corruption-riddled UN/Iraq Oil-for-food program, was indicted in the US for allegedly accepting $160,000 in bribes to help former dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime, the 14th person charged in the oil-for-food scandal.
- Landry’s Restaurants(LNY) offered to buy Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group for $64.4 million to increase the number of upscale locations it operates.
- Centex Corp.(CTX) and KB Home(KBH) said quarterly earnings were depressed by $800 million in costs to write off the value of land and abandon options to buy more property.
- Symantec(SYMC) said third-quarter profit and sales missed its forecast, citing its data management unit.
- Copper prices in NY fell for the third session in a row on speculation demand will lag behind supplies with global inventories of the metal close to the highest since July 2004.
- US railroads will get new rules by 2008 for redesigning tank cars to keep chemicals from leaking during an accident.
- Shares of OMI Inc.(OMM) and General Maritime(GMR), the second and third-biggest US oil tanker operators, were downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald LP, which said lower OPEC shipments and growth in vessel fleets will hurt profit.
Wall Street Journal:
- Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom, founders of Skype Technologies SA, are supporting an online broadband video company called Joost that could let viewers watch professional video on personal computers with better quality.
- US retailers are encouraging customers to switch from credit cards to debit cards with lower processing fees.
- Smaller US companies with proven ability to make steady progress no matter what the state of the economy are attracting interest from mutual-fund managers.
NY Post:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube unit has started carrying commodities trading advice from a former New York Merc silver trader.
The Guardian:
- More than half of Iran’s parliament signed a letter criticizing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance on the economy. The signatories also criticized Ahmadinejad’s stance on the international dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is losing patience with Ahmadinejad. “There is a probability that he cannot even finish his current four-year period,” said Eesa Scharkhiz, an Iranian political commentator.
Handelsblatt:
- Chemical makers worldwide may see slower earnings and sales growth and narrower profit margins this year, citing analysts at rating companies including S&P and Fitch.
Interfax:
- Russia has completed the delivery of new surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, citing Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
Expansion:
- Billionaire investor George Soros said it doesn’t make sense to imagine a future in which the euro replaces the US dollar as the global currency of reference.
Jerusalem Post:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the word’s largest computer-chip maker, may enter a joint venture with STMicroelectronics NV and a private investor that will reorganize its flash memory division.
New York Manufacturing Decelerates
- The Empire Manufacturing Index for January fell to 9.1 versus estimates of 19.3 and a reading of 22.2 in December.
BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing growth in NY state slowed more than forecast this month as new orders and sales deteriorated, Bloomberg said. The Outlook component of the index fell to 32.5 from 41.9 in December. The New Orders component fell to 10.3 versus 22.5 in December. The Employment component fell to 6.9 versus 18.6 in December. The Prices Paid component bounced back to 35.1 from 28.1 the prior month. I continue to believe manufacturing will improve modestly later this year as auto production cutbacks subside and housing continues to stabilize at relatively high levels.
Monday, January 15, 2007
Tuesday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Moving toward US “energy independence” is emerging as one of the few areas where President Bush may find common ground with the congressional Democrats. Administration officials say Bush’s seventh annual address to Congress on Jan. 23 will reiterate his vow to cut Middle Eastern oil imports by 75% by 2025 and curb what he describes as a national “addiction” to oil. Democrats and the White House are likely to agree to boost support for biofuels, increase federal funding for electric-powered vehicles and sweeten incentives for the use of solar and wind power, lobbyists and industry experts say.
- OPEC needs to address excess oil production of “close to” 1 million barrels a day in global markets to stem a price slump, Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru said. Rising non-OPEC output is affecting prices, Daukoru said.
- Leaders of the 10 nations of Asean, meeting in Cebu, the Philippines, today agreed to draw up a charter that will give the group rules and the power to enforce them. They also signed a legally binding accord to combat terrorism, and accelerated plans to form an Asean common trade market for a population of 550 million people.
- The US dollar climbed to a 13-month high against the yen this week and the strongest since November versus the euro as signs the US economy is quickening cooled speculation the Fed will lower interest rates.
- Kmart Corp. expanded its 90-day prescription drug program to 225 products, including the generic form of Zocor used to treat cholesterol.
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez today asked Congress to grant him temporary executive powers to rule by decree as he seeks to speed the implementation of his so-called socialist economic reforms.
- “There are all sorts of horrible things happening to the Canadian dollar,” said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts, a NY firm that manages $12 billion in currencies. “Crude oil, lumber, and copper markets look ugly at this time. Most of the hedge funds are out of the Canadian-dollar trade, and I don’t see any sign that they’ll come back soon.”
- PetroChina Co., the nation’s largest oil and gas company, said output increased 5.2% last year to a record after it expanded exploration in fields in western China.
- In reasserting state control over their economies, the leaders of Venezuela and Russia are bucking the very capital flows and expanded markets that buoyed their oil-producing nations in the first place by delivering record energy prices and the strongest global growth in a generation.
- AOL, Time Warner’s(TWX) Internet unit, agreed to acquire Sweden’s TradeDoubler AB for $900 million to further expand in Europe.
- Japan’s 30-year bonds are attractive as contained global inflation caps the number of times the central bank will raise interest rates this year, Pimco Japan Ltd. said.
- Crude oil is falling back below $53/bbl. in NY amid doubts OPEC can cut output enough to support prices.
- Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, said its exports of the metal plunged 23% in December to an eight-month low amid signs of weakening demand.
- Shares of Tullow Oil Plc, an oil and gas explorer on three continents, had their biggest gain in three months after its partner in a Ugandan license found additional petroleum deposits at an exploration well.
- Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest oil producer, plans to ease commitments it requires from oil and gas explorers in the eastern part of the country as it seeks to boost oil and gas output 30% by 2009.
Wall Street Journal:
- Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM) and Lockheed Martin(LMT) stopped paying country-club dues for its executives Jan. 1 as new SEC compensation-disclosure laws took effect.
- General Electric(GE) is close to an agreement to buy the aerospace division of Smiths Group Plc for $4.9 billion.
- Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile USA unit will release today a white version of Research in Motion’s(RIMM) BlackBerry Pearl mobile phone, as telecom makers and carriers seek to compete with Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone.
USA Today:
- The US military says more than 1,800 people applied for Iraqi police jobs in Ramadi in the past six weeks, an increase from a “few dozen” in September.
NY Times:
- US employers including Sprint(S), Toyota Motor(TM) and Pepsi Bottling Group(PBG) have health-care clinics for employees in an effort to cut medical-insurance premiums.
- Hollywood studios are in negotiations with Google’s(GOOG) YouTube on licensing agreements that would make their content legally available of the Web site.
- Citigroup(C) would shorten its name to “Citi” and introduce a redesigned logo under a branding plan that will be presented to the company’s board this week.
Newsweek:
- OJ Simpson, drenched in blood and holding a knife, doesn’t reveal how his ex-wife and her companion were killed in his fictional account of the murders, according to a chapter of the canceled book “If I Did It” obtained by Newsweek.
Boston Globe:
- High-energy CNBC program, Mad Money, has developed a cult following on college campuses.
Reuters:
- Google(GOOG) has increased its share of the US Web search market to 47.4% with a gain of .4% during December, while No.2 ranked Yahoo!(YHOO) also edged higher. Google has gained share in 16 of the last 17 months in the United States, the world’s largest Internet market, according to comScore data.
- Cuban leader Fidel Castro was in serious condition after three failed surgeries on his large intestine.
AP:
- Saddam Hussein’s half brother and another associate of the former Iraqi leader were executed today for their role in the 1982 murders of Shiite Muslims.
EE Times:
- According to a report from FBR Research, the Apple(AAPL) iPhone winners include Samsung, Marvell Tech(MRVL), Infineon Technologies, Broadcom(BRCM) and CSR plc among others. So how many core processors from ARM Holdings plc(ARMHY) does that represent?
Financial Times:
- BP Plc(BP) CEO Browne will join private equity firm Apax Partners Worldwide LLP as chairman of Apax’s advisory board after he steps down from BP.
- UK business confidence is at its highest level for over 12 years despite recent interest rate increases by the Bank of England, citing a Lloyds TSB Group Plc report.
- Egyptian officials have arrested a producer with Al Jazeera, an Arab satellite-tv network, claiming that she fabricated scenes of police torture.
- YouTube Inc., MySpace.com and other user-generated video Web sites’ advertising revenues will account for 15% of the total online video advertising budget by 2010, citing a study by media analysis company Screen Digest.
Globe and Mail:
- Canadian pharmacist organizations asked the government to ban the export of prescription drugs to the US after it introduced a bill last week that would allow pharmacies and wholesalers to import drugs from Canada.
Svenska Dagbladet:
- Volvo AB may start manufacturing its hybrid engine for trucks, busses, and construction machines in 2009 after testing this year and next year, citing CEO Johansson.
Le Monde:
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s “quite worried” about attempts in France to blame the euro for inflation and a declining standard of living.
Business Times:
- Genting Bhd., a Malaysian owner of casinos and plantations, plans to spend as much as $3 billion to set up biofuel plants in Indonesia.
Al-Hayat:
- Iraq plans to forma a government body to develop the energy industry after almost four years of conflict has paralyzed the development of the industry, citing an Irai oil ministry official.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (XRX), (YRCW), (KMB) and (TM).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy and raised estimates on (SBUX), target $45
- Reiterated Buy on (KLAC), target $65.
Morgan Stanley:
- Upgraded Biotech Sector to Attractive.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CBH)/.40
- (FRX)/.66
- (FCX)/2.12
- (INTC)/.25
- (LLTC)/.34
- (MI)/.82
- (AMTD)/.22
- (TSS)/.26
- (USB)/.67
- (WFC)/.64
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Empire Manufacturing for January is estimated to fall to 19.5 versus a reading of 23.1 in December.
Bloomberg:
- Moving toward US “energy independence” is emerging as one of the few areas where President Bush may find common ground with the congressional Democrats. Administration officials say Bush’s seventh annual address to Congress on Jan. 23 will reiterate his vow to cut Middle Eastern oil imports by 75% by 2025 and curb what he describes as a national “addiction” to oil. Democrats and the White House are likely to agree to boost support for biofuels, increase federal funding for electric-powered vehicles and sweeten incentives for the use of solar and wind power, lobbyists and industry experts say.
- OPEC needs to address excess oil production of “close to” 1 million barrels a day in global markets to stem a price slump, Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru said. Rising non-OPEC output is affecting prices, Daukoru said.
- Leaders of the 10 nations of Asean, meeting in Cebu, the Philippines, today agreed to draw up a charter that will give the group rules and the power to enforce them. They also signed a legally binding accord to combat terrorism, and accelerated plans to form an Asean common trade market for a population of 550 million people.
- The US dollar climbed to a 13-month high against the yen this week and the strongest since November versus the euro as signs the US economy is quickening cooled speculation the Fed will lower interest rates.
- Kmart Corp. expanded its 90-day prescription drug program to 225 products, including the generic form of Zocor used to treat cholesterol.
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez today asked Congress to grant him temporary executive powers to rule by decree as he seeks to speed the implementation of his so-called socialist economic reforms.
- “There are all sorts of horrible things happening to the Canadian dollar,” said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts, a NY firm that manages $12 billion in currencies. “Crude oil, lumber, and copper markets look ugly at this time. Most of the hedge funds are out of the Canadian-dollar trade, and I don’t see any sign that they’ll come back soon.”
- PetroChina Co., the nation’s largest oil and gas company, said output increased 5.2% last year to a record after it expanded exploration in fields in western China.
- In reasserting state control over their economies, the leaders of Venezuela and Russia are bucking the very capital flows and expanded markets that buoyed their oil-producing nations in the first place by delivering record energy prices and the strongest global growth in a generation.
- AOL, Time Warner’s(TWX) Internet unit, agreed to acquire Sweden’s TradeDoubler AB for $900 million to further expand in Europe.
- Japan’s 30-year bonds are attractive as contained global inflation caps the number of times the central bank will raise interest rates this year, Pimco Japan Ltd. said.
- Crude oil is falling back below $53/bbl. in NY amid doubts OPEC can cut output enough to support prices.
- Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, said its exports of the metal plunged 23% in December to an eight-month low amid signs of weakening demand.
- Shares of Tullow Oil Plc, an oil and gas explorer on three continents, had their biggest gain in three months after its partner in a Ugandan license found additional petroleum deposits at an exploration well.
- Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest oil producer, plans to ease commitments it requires from oil and gas explorers in the eastern part of the country as it seeks to boost oil and gas output 30% by 2009.
Wall Street Journal:
- Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM) and Lockheed Martin(LMT) stopped paying country-club dues for its executives Jan. 1 as new SEC compensation-disclosure laws took effect.
- General Electric(GE) is close to an agreement to buy the aerospace division of Smiths Group Plc for $4.9 billion.
- Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile USA unit will release today a white version of Research in Motion’s(RIMM) BlackBerry Pearl mobile phone, as telecom makers and carriers seek to compete with Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone.
USA Today:
- The US military says more than 1,800 people applied for Iraqi police jobs in Ramadi in the past six weeks, an increase from a “few dozen” in September.
NY Times:
- US employers including Sprint(S), Toyota Motor(TM) and Pepsi Bottling Group(PBG) have health-care clinics for employees in an effort to cut medical-insurance premiums.
- Hollywood studios are in negotiations with Google’s(GOOG) YouTube on licensing agreements that would make their content legally available of the Web site.
- Citigroup(C) would shorten its name to “Citi” and introduce a redesigned logo under a branding plan that will be presented to the company’s board this week.
Newsweek:
- OJ Simpson, drenched in blood and holding a knife, doesn’t reveal how his ex-wife and her companion were killed in his fictional account of the murders, according to a chapter of the canceled book “If I Did It” obtained by Newsweek.
Boston Globe:
- High-energy CNBC program, Mad Money, has developed a cult following on college campuses.
Reuters:
- Google(GOOG) has increased its share of the US Web search market to 47.4% with a gain of .4% during December, while No.2 ranked Yahoo!(YHOO) also edged higher. Google has gained share in 16 of the last 17 months in the United States, the world’s largest Internet market, according to comScore data.
- Cuban leader Fidel Castro was in serious condition after three failed surgeries on his large intestine.
AP:
- Saddam Hussein’s half brother and another associate of the former Iraqi leader were executed today for their role in the 1982 murders of Shiite Muslims.
EE Times:
- According to a report from FBR Research, the Apple(AAPL) iPhone winners include Samsung, Marvell Tech(MRVL), Infineon Technologies, Broadcom(BRCM) and CSR plc among others. So how many core processors from ARM Holdings plc(ARMHY) does that represent?
Financial Times:
- BP Plc(BP) CEO Browne will join private equity firm Apax Partners Worldwide LLP as chairman of Apax’s advisory board after he steps down from BP.
- UK business confidence is at its highest level for over 12 years despite recent interest rate increases by the Bank of England, citing a Lloyds TSB Group Plc report.
- Egyptian officials have arrested a producer with Al Jazeera, an Arab satellite-tv network, claiming that she fabricated scenes of police torture.
- YouTube Inc., MySpace.com and other user-generated video Web sites’ advertising revenues will account for 15% of the total online video advertising budget by 2010, citing a study by media analysis company Screen Digest.
Globe and Mail:
- Canadian pharmacist organizations asked the government to ban the export of prescription drugs to the US after it introduced a bill last week that would allow pharmacies and wholesalers to import drugs from Canada.
Svenska Dagbladet:
- Volvo AB may start manufacturing its hybrid engine for trucks, busses, and construction machines in 2009 after testing this year and next year, citing CEO Johansson.
Le Monde:
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s “quite worried” about attempts in France to blame the euro for inflation and a declining standard of living.
Business Times:
- Genting Bhd., a Malaysian owner of casinos and plantations, plans to spend as much as $3 billion to set up biofuel plants in Indonesia.
Al-Hayat:
- Iraq plans to forma a government body to develop the energy industry after almost four years of conflict has paralyzed the development of the industry, citing an Irai oil ministry official.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (XRX), (YRCW), (KMB) and (TM).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy and raised estimates on (SBUX), target $45
- Reiterated Buy on (KLAC), target $65.
Morgan Stanley:
- Upgraded Biotech Sector to Attractive.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CBH)/.40
- (FRX)/.66
- (FCX)/2.12
- (INTC)/.25
- (LLTC)/.34
- (MI)/.82
- (AMTD)/.22
- (TSS)/.26
- (USB)/.67
- (WFC)/.64
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Empire Manufacturing for January is estimated to fall to 19.5 versus a reading of 23.1 in December.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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