BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Medical longs and Semiconductor longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is above average. Last week, a director of Bear Stearns (BSC) purchased 50,000 shares in three separate transactions at an average price of $148.32 per share. This brings his total holdings to 175,000 shares, a 40% increase. This is especially interesting considering investors' concerns over the company's subprime exposure. Last week, the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made a new all-time high. As I said recently, this has been one of the better markets I can remember for stockpickers. Many individual stocks are posting huge gains for the year already. As well, the broad stock market is outperforming the major averages this year as the Value Line Geometric Index is 3.7% higher. Stocks have pared this morning's losses substantially as many market leaders are gaining upside traction. Tech shares are leading the major averages higher. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and bargain-hunting.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Lingering Housing Concerns, Higher Oil Prices
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin said an impasse over Iran’s nuclear program must be resolved by peaceful means. The leaders called on Iran to “take the necessary and constructive steps to fulfill the resolutions of the UN Security Council.”
- Crude oil is rising .56/bbl. on increased speculation from investment funds as global tensions with Iran rise despite commercials increasing their net short position into the latest increase in oil prices.
- The Financial Services Authority, the UK’s markets regulator, plans to tighten monitoring of commodity markets as trading of oil, metals and agricultural produce increases.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) was raised to “buy” at Goldman Sachs(GS) as the firm recommended investors purchase the shares ahead of a turnaround at the company.
- Iranian officials are interrogating 15 members of the UK military accused by the Islamic Republic of violating the country’s territorial waters, the government in Tehran said.
- Alcatel-Lucent(ALU) won a three-year contract worth about $6 billion from Verizon Communications(VZ) to expand the US company’s mobile-phone network.
- Ginnie Mae and the Federal Housing Administration, created by the US government to boost mortgage financing, say the subprime lending shakeout will help end their more than four-year decline in market share.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell for a third straight session, dropping another 2.6%, on speculation drier weather starting in the US Midwest in April will allow farmers to plant the crop quickly, leading to a bigger harvest.
- Copper is rising in 2.0% NY as global stockpiles declined, signaling stronger demand for the metal.
- Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s largest trading company, signed a 30-year ethanol supply agreement with Sao Martinho SA and will buy a stake in a Brazilian mill.
- World stainless steel production jumped 17% last year after Chinese producers increased output, surpassing Japan as Asia’s largest producer of the metal for the first time, the International Stainless Steel Forum said.
- Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock index plunged 6.1% last night despite the recent rise in oil prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Boeing Co.(BA) is increasing production gradually, despite two years of record orders, to avoid fracturing its supply chain.
- Austin, Texas Mayor Will Wynn is promoting plug-in electric cars as part of a system to generate cleaner energy for Texas’ capital city.
- President Bush’s second meeting with executives of Detroit’s Big Three automakers will likely focus on alternative fuels. Chief executives Rick Wagoner of General Motors(GM), Alan Mulally of Ford Motor(F), and Tom LaSorda of DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) are scheduled to meet with Bush for about 30 minutes in the Oval Office today before they each show the president one of their flex-fuel vehicles, capable of using conventional and alternative fuels.
NY Times:
- Gameloft, a maker of games for cell phones, will announce today that it is producing a line of games for the BlackBerry.
Chronicle of Higher Education:
- Midlevel college administrators got an average 3.8% pay raise this year, citing a survey by the College and University Professional Assoc. for Human Resources. Workers at public institutions received the highest average increase of 4% while those at private schools received 3.6%.
NY Post:
- Morgan Stanley(MS) will auction $2.48 billion in mortgages from subprime lender New Century Financial(NEWC).
Detroit News:
- General Motors’(GM) bid for Chrysler, which included less than 10% in GM stock and a $1 billion payment from parent DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX), was rejected for being too low.
USA Today:
- Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid added a provision to the recent war spending bill that would help billboard advertisers, an industry that donated tens of thousands of dollars to candidates in the 2006 election. The addition to the emergency spending bill for military operations and Hurricane Katrina victims would exempt some billboards in 13 southern states from the 1965 Highway Beautification Act regulations.
Washington Post:
- NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg may be considering a self-financed, third-party candidacy for president.
Reuters:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said US inflation will slow at the end of the year and in 2008. Moscow also said that US subprime mortgage problems are not spilling over and that the housing market is in the process of stabilizing.
Financial Times:
- Hedge funds do best for their first two years, and usually produce lower yet more consistent returns as they grow larger, citing a Pertrac Financial Solutions study.
Interfax:
- A unit of China Petrochemical will sign an agreement to buy about 60,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Russia’s state-run OAO Rosneft.
Globo:
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, is close to confirming the discovery of a “gigantic” field of light-grade crude under the Campos Basin. The field, if confirmed, would be one of the largest of its type in the world.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin said an impasse over Iran’s nuclear program must be resolved by peaceful means. The leaders called on Iran to “take the necessary and constructive steps to fulfill the resolutions of the UN Security Council.”
- Crude oil is rising .56/bbl. on increased speculation from investment funds as global tensions with Iran rise despite commercials increasing their net short position into the latest increase in oil prices.
- The Financial Services Authority, the UK’s markets regulator, plans to tighten monitoring of commodity markets as trading of oil, metals and agricultural produce increases.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) was raised to “buy” at Goldman Sachs(GS) as the firm recommended investors purchase the shares ahead of a turnaround at the company.
- Iranian officials are interrogating 15 members of the UK military accused by the Islamic Republic of violating the country’s territorial waters, the government in Tehran said.
- Alcatel-Lucent(ALU) won a three-year contract worth about $6 billion from Verizon Communications(VZ) to expand the US company’s mobile-phone network.
- Ginnie Mae and the Federal Housing Administration, created by the US government to boost mortgage financing, say the subprime lending shakeout will help end their more than four-year decline in market share.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell for a third straight session, dropping another 2.6%, on speculation drier weather starting in the US Midwest in April will allow farmers to plant the crop quickly, leading to a bigger harvest.
- Copper is rising in 2.0% NY as global stockpiles declined, signaling stronger demand for the metal.
- Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s largest trading company, signed a 30-year ethanol supply agreement with Sao Martinho SA and will buy a stake in a Brazilian mill.
- World stainless steel production jumped 17% last year after Chinese producers increased output, surpassing Japan as Asia’s largest producer of the metal for the first time, the International Stainless Steel Forum said.
- Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock index plunged 6.1% last night despite the recent rise in oil prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Boeing Co.(BA) is increasing production gradually, despite two years of record orders, to avoid fracturing its supply chain.
- Austin, Texas Mayor Will Wynn is promoting plug-in electric cars as part of a system to generate cleaner energy for Texas’ capital city.
- President Bush’s second meeting with executives of Detroit’s Big Three automakers will likely focus on alternative fuels. Chief executives Rick Wagoner of General Motors(GM), Alan Mulally of Ford Motor(F), and Tom LaSorda of DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) are scheduled to meet with Bush for about 30 minutes in the Oval Office today before they each show the president one of their flex-fuel vehicles, capable of using conventional and alternative fuels.
NY Times:
- Gameloft, a maker of games for cell phones, will announce today that it is producing a line of games for the BlackBerry.
Chronicle of Higher Education:
- Midlevel college administrators got an average 3.8% pay raise this year, citing a survey by the College and University Professional Assoc. for Human Resources. Workers at public institutions received the highest average increase of 4% while those at private schools received 3.6%.
NY Post:
- Morgan Stanley(MS) will auction $2.48 billion in mortgages from subprime lender New Century Financial(NEWC).
Detroit News:
- General Motors’(GM) bid for Chrysler, which included less than 10% in GM stock and a $1 billion payment from parent DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX), was rejected for being too low.
USA Today:
- Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid added a provision to the recent war spending bill that would help billboard advertisers, an industry that donated tens of thousands of dollars to candidates in the 2006 election. The addition to the emergency spending bill for military operations and Hurricane Katrina victims would exempt some billboards in 13 southern states from the 1965 Highway Beautification Act regulations.
Washington Post:
- NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg may be considering a self-financed, third-party candidacy for president.
Reuters:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said US inflation will slow at the end of the year and in 2008. Moscow also said that US subprime mortgage problems are not spilling over and that the housing market is in the process of stabilizing.
Financial Times:
- Hedge funds do best for their first two years, and usually produce lower yet more consistent returns as they grow larger, citing a Pertrac Financial Solutions study.
Interfax:
- A unit of China Petrochemical will sign an agreement to buy about 60,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Russia’s state-run OAO Rosneft.
Globo:
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, is close to confirming the discovery of a “gigantic” field of light-grade crude under the Campos Basin. The field, if confirmed, would be one of the largest of its type in the world.
New Home Sales Fall
- New Home Sales for February fell to 848K versus estimates of 985K and 882K in January.
BOTTOM LINE: New-home sales in the US unexpectedly fell in February, Bloomberg reported. The median price of a new home fell .3% last month to $250,000 from $250,800 the prior month. The Home Affordability Index is now at the best levels in 20 months, which is helping to stabilize pricing. The supply of homes at the current sales pace rose to 8.1 months’ worth, compared with 7.3 months in January. Purchases fell 26.8% in the Northeast, 7.0% in the South and 20% in the Midwest. Sales soared 24.6% in the West. New home sales for February are more a refection of the activity in February than the recent strong existing home sales report, which reflected more January activity. February saw record cold temperatures and storms, while January weather was relatively mild. It is interesting to note the strong new home sales figure for the West, which was the least affected by the weather. I expect new home sale to bounce back sharply this month.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fed Governor Mishkin said inflation is poised to recede gradually to 2%.
- The number of Americans surviving for years after a heart attack is rising, thanks to drugs now prescribed to control long-term risks.
- Abbott Laboratories’(ABT) experimental heart stents may threaten the market dominance of Boston Scientific(BSX) and Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) based on positive results from two studies released today.
- The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously for a resolution freezing the assets of a state-owned Iranian bank and imposing penalties on some military commanders, to push Iran to suspend its nuclear program.
- Venezuela President Hugo Chavez said the government seized 16 private farms and ranches it considers unused, and plans to use the land to raise cattle for meat and milk production. “This is an attack by the state and the people on large land holdings,” Chavez said.
- China is likely to raise interest rates again at least once in the next six months to rein in the supply of money to curb asset bubbles, inflation and excessive investment in factories.
- Copper-mining capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% from 2006 through 2011, the International Copper Study Group said.
- Ensco International Inc.(ESV), a US oil and natural-gas driller, expects slower growth this year in the rents paid by oil companies for rigs, CEO Rabun said. “You won’t see acceleration of rates you saw in the last 18 months,” Rabun said.
- Mohamed al-Hamli, president of OPEC, said “markets are well supplied” and OPEC will continue to ensure “adequate” oil supplies.
- China’s production of crude steel will rise 13% in 2007, down from 18% last year, as the country’s demand slows, said Luo Binsheng, executive vice-chairman and secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Moscow today, seeking access to Russian oil and natural gas to help cut China’s reliance on the Middle East.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) plans to build its first computer-chip manufacturing plant in China, a $2.5 billion investment that may spur rivals to follow.
Wall Street Journal:
- Tribune Co.(TRB) is likely to accept a buyout proposal from Sam Zell.
- Bulldog Investors founder Philip Goldstein sued Massachusetts securities regulators, alleging the fund’s free-speech rights were violated when it was stopped from giving information on the Internet.
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is struggling to attract support from fundraisers in California’s Silicon Valley who earlier backed husband Bill Clinton.
State Street:
- Hedge Fund Research Study March 2007.
NY Times:
- Executive pay filings show that more boards are requiring so-called clawbacks, which allow companies to recover gains made during periods of financial misconduct.
- Apple will not release the iPhone until June, but Leander Kahney, the writer of “The Cult of Mac” blog, posited this week on Wired News that the new phone is already partly responsible for a major change in how the company is perceived. After nearly three decades, Apple is finally being taken seriously not just by the true believers, but by just about everybody.
LA Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is tutoring political activists and campaigners on how to better use its products, such as YouTube, for campaigns.
MarketWatch.com:
- The stock market is now 4% above its March low, as judged by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, however the average NASDAQ timing newsletter is now short the market, according to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index. This leads contrarians to suspect that more upside is forthcoming.
Sacramento Bee:
- California businesses added 27,600 employees to their payrolls in February, the most since October of last year.
Financial Times:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) is likely to receive three bids for its Chrysler unit next week after adviser JPMorgan Chase(JPM) asked for initial offers that include business plans and a price by the end of March.
- DreamWorks Animation SKG’s(DWA) decision to produce all its new films using three-dimensional technology from 2009 is an example of how Hollywood studios are planning on boosting box office takings using the once-maligned format.
- UK energy suppliers will be unable to meet the rising demand for renewable energy from their corporate customers this year, citing research by Datamonitor. The shortage means environmental energy restrictions could be relaxed to include nuclear energy.
Economic Daily News:
- United Microelectronics’ solar-cell affiliate NexPower Technology will invest $61 million in a new facility this year.
- Wistron Corp. may stop producing Microsoft’s(MSFT) Xbox games console next year.
Investir:
- Carbone Lorraine SA, the world’s biggest maker of brushes for electric motors, has not witnessed any slowing in demand from the US.
Xinhua:
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. is drilling an oil well in southwest China that at 8,875 meters is the deepest in Asia, citing Zhang Xiaopeng, deputy chief engineer of the company’s Southwest China oil and gas unit.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SBUX), (ORGN), (NLY), (ANH), (OPX) and (RSH).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on Managed Care, especially those with strong Medicare Advantage franchises, (HUM), (UNH), CVH), (WLP) and (HNT).
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CKP)/.39
- (DG)/.38
- (PVH)/.44
- (SHFL)/.07
- (TIF)/1.05
- (TSAI)/.30
- (TWP)/-.66
- (WAG)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- (KMX) 2-for-1
- (HSC) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for February are estimated at 990K versus 937K in January.
Bloomberg:
- Fed Governor Mishkin said inflation is poised to recede gradually to 2%.
- The number of Americans surviving for years after a heart attack is rising, thanks to drugs now prescribed to control long-term risks.
- Abbott Laboratories’(ABT) experimental heart stents may threaten the market dominance of Boston Scientific(BSX) and Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) based on positive results from two studies released today.
- The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously for a resolution freezing the assets of a state-owned Iranian bank and imposing penalties on some military commanders, to push Iran to suspend its nuclear program.
- Venezuela President Hugo Chavez said the government seized 16 private farms and ranches it considers unused, and plans to use the land to raise cattle for meat and milk production. “This is an attack by the state and the people on large land holdings,” Chavez said.
- China is likely to raise interest rates again at least once in the next six months to rein in the supply of money to curb asset bubbles, inflation and excessive investment in factories.
- Copper-mining capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% from 2006 through 2011, the International Copper Study Group said.
- Ensco International Inc.(ESV), a US oil and natural-gas driller, expects slower growth this year in the rents paid by oil companies for rigs, CEO Rabun said. “You won’t see acceleration of rates you saw in the last 18 months,” Rabun said.
- Mohamed al-Hamli, president of OPEC, said “markets are well supplied” and OPEC will continue to ensure “adequate” oil supplies.
- China’s production of crude steel will rise 13% in 2007, down from 18% last year, as the country’s demand slows, said Luo Binsheng, executive vice-chairman and secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Moscow today, seeking access to Russian oil and natural gas to help cut China’s reliance on the Middle East.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) plans to build its first computer-chip manufacturing plant in China, a $2.5 billion investment that may spur rivals to follow.
Wall Street Journal:
- Tribune Co.(TRB) is likely to accept a buyout proposal from Sam Zell.
- Bulldog Investors founder Philip Goldstein sued Massachusetts securities regulators, alleging the fund’s free-speech rights were violated when it was stopped from giving information on the Internet.
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is struggling to attract support from fundraisers in California’s Silicon Valley who earlier backed husband Bill Clinton.
State Street:
- Hedge Fund Research Study March 2007.
NY Times:
- Executive pay filings show that more boards are requiring so-called clawbacks, which allow companies to recover gains made during periods of financial misconduct.
- Apple will not release the iPhone until June, but Leander Kahney, the writer of “The Cult of Mac” blog, posited this week on Wired News that the new phone is already partly responsible for a major change in how the company is perceived. After nearly three decades, Apple is finally being taken seriously not just by the true believers, but by just about everybody.
LA Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is tutoring political activists and campaigners on how to better use its products, such as YouTube, for campaigns.
MarketWatch.com:
- The stock market is now 4% above its March low, as judged by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, however the average NASDAQ timing newsletter is now short the market, according to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index. This leads contrarians to suspect that more upside is forthcoming.
Sacramento Bee:
- California businesses added 27,600 employees to their payrolls in February, the most since October of last year.
Financial Times:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) is likely to receive three bids for its Chrysler unit next week after adviser JPMorgan Chase(JPM) asked for initial offers that include business plans and a price by the end of March.
- DreamWorks Animation SKG’s(DWA) decision to produce all its new films using three-dimensional technology from 2009 is an example of how Hollywood studios are planning on boosting box office takings using the once-maligned format.
- UK energy suppliers will be unable to meet the rising demand for renewable energy from their corporate customers this year, citing research by Datamonitor. The shortage means environmental energy restrictions could be relaxed to include nuclear energy.
Economic Daily News:
- United Microelectronics’ solar-cell affiliate NexPower Technology will invest $61 million in a new facility this year.
- Wistron Corp. may stop producing Microsoft’s(MSFT) Xbox games console next year.
Investir:
- Carbone Lorraine SA, the world’s biggest maker of brushes for electric motors, has not witnessed any slowing in demand from the US.
Xinhua:
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. is drilling an oil well in southwest China that at 8,875 meters is the deepest in Asia, citing Zhang Xiaopeng, deputy chief engineer of the company’s Southwest China oil and gas unit.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SBUX), (ORGN), (NLY), (ANH), (OPX) and (RSH).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on Managed Care, especially those with strong Medicare Advantage franchises, (HUM), (UNH), CVH), (WLP) and (HNT).
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CKP)/.39
- (DG)/.38
- (PVH)/.44
- (SHFL)/.07
- (TIF)/1.05
- (TSAI)/.30
- (TWP)/-.66
- (WAG)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- (KMX) 2-for-1
- (HSC) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for February are estimated at 990K versus 937K in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixsed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch
There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - New Home Sales
Tues. - Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index, weekly retail sales
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Apps, Durable Goods Orders, EIA energy inventory data
Thur. - Final 4Q GDP, Final 4Q Personal Consumption, Final 4Q GDP Price Index, Final Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Personal Income, PCE Core, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Construction Spending, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Checkpoint Systems(CKP), Dollar General(DG), Shuffle Master(SHFL), Tiffany & Co.(TIF), Transaction Systems Archittects(TSAI), Walgreen(WAG)
Tues. - Accenture(ACN), GameStop(GME), Lennar Corp.(LEN), McCormick & Co.(MKC)
Wed. - Paychex(PAY)
Thur. - AG Edwards(AGE), Carmax(KMX), CKE Restaurants(CKE), Claire’s Stores(CLE), Family Dollar(FDO), Finish Line(FINL), RedHat(RHAT), Solectron(SLR), Steelcase(SCS), Stride Rite Corp.(SRR), Worthington Industries(WOR)
Fri. - Activision(ATVI), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Sonic Solutions(SNIC)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Lehman Brothers High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference, (BSX) analyst meeting
Tue. - Lehman High Yield Conference, (SNPS) investor day
Wed. - Lehman High Yield Conference, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, (ADBE) analyst meeting
Thur. - (BRCD) analyst meeting, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, Fed’s Lacker speaking
Fri. - BMO Global Fertilizer Conference, Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch
There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - New Home Sales
Tues. - Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index, weekly retail sales
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Apps, Durable Goods Orders, EIA energy inventory data
Thur. - Final 4Q GDP, Final 4Q Personal Consumption, Final 4Q GDP Price Index, Final Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Personal Income, PCE Core, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Construction Spending, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Checkpoint Systems(CKP), Dollar General(DG), Shuffle Master(SHFL), Tiffany & Co.(TIF), Transaction Systems Archittects(TSAI), Walgreen(WAG)
Tues. - Accenture(ACN), GameStop(GME), Lennar Corp.(LEN), McCormick & Co.(MKC)
Wed. - Paychex(PAY)
Thur. - AG Edwards(AGE), Carmax(KMX), CKE Restaurants(CKE), Claire’s Stores(CLE), Family Dollar(FDO), Finish Line(FINL), RedHat(RHAT), Solectron(SLR), Steelcase(SCS), Stride Rite Corp.(SRR), Worthington Industries(WOR)
Fri. - Activision(ATVI), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Sonic Solutions(SNIC)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Lehman Brothers High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference, (BSX) analyst meeting
Tue. - Lehman High Yield Conference, (SNPS) investor day
Wed. - Lehman High Yield Conference, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, (ADBE) analyst meeting
Thur. - (BRCD) analyst meeting, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, Fed’s Lacker speaking
Fri. - BMO Global Fertilizer Conference, Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My trading indicators are now giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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