BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs and Technology longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is about average. Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales surged 3.9% last week vs. a 3.7% gain the prior week and 2.4% during this week last year. This is well above the long-term average and the highest weekly increase since the last week of September last year. Weekly retail sales have gained 3.4%, 3.7% and 3.9% over the last three weeks vs. weekly gains of around 2.75% the prior 3 months. In my opinion, this shows that while consumers are more concerned about the future, they feel better about their present situation, which is what this morning's confidence report showed. Anecdotally, I went to one of the largest malls in the country over the weekend. It was sunny and 75 degrees, yet the mall was packed and people were carrying bags. I continue to believe monthly retail sales are bouncing back sharply into the spring. Last week, I posted about the new all-time high in NYSE short interest. Last night, the Nasdaq reported that short interest also jumped to an all-time record. From mid February through mid March, short interest on the Nasdaq rose 12.1% to 7,890,000,000 shares. This was the largest monthly percentage increase since Bloomberg began tracking short interest in 1991. This is just more evidence of the very high wall of worry that was created earlier this month.
Here are the 20 Nasdaq stocks with the largest percentage increase in their short interest relative to their float from mid February through mid March:
1. LEND +34.8%
2. BLDR +23.2%
3. HCBK +22.8%
4. TTWO +18.8%
5. PRGX +16.7%
6. CPSL +16.1%
7. POSH +12.1%
8. NTRI +9.7%
9. NETL +9.2%
10. LJPC +8.7%
11. MALL +8.2%
12. VNDA+8.0%
13. ANDE +7.8%
14. ORBC +7.7%
15. PFCB +7.7%
16. CHCI +7.7%
17. BKUNA +7.5%
18. SFLY +7.4%
19. CAKE +7.1%
20. CBRL +7.0%
I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and bargain-hunting.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Economic Concerns and Profit-taking
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Gasoline futures are falling 1.4%, notwithstanding concerns over Iran and low US refinery utilization. Refineries in states including California and Texas are operating at reduced rates due to “recent unit failures and fires.” The margin, or crack spread, earned by refiners for turning crude oil into gasoline and heating oil is about 54% wider than a year ago.
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said that efforts to release 15 British sailors and Marines seized by Iran will enter a “different phase” if negotiations fail.
- US forces in Iraq arrested two men suspected of leading a terrorist cell responsible for car bombings that have killed about 900 civilians in Iraq.
- Mark Walton, head of the world’s largest animal cloning company, sees his biotech lab in Austin, Texas, as the next frontier in food production.
- Lennar Corp.(LEN), the largest US homebuilder by revenue, said earnings fell 73% during the fiscal first-quarter. The stock is near session highs, falling .7% on the report.
- White House Press Secretary Tony Snow has been diagnosed with recurrence of cancer and the disease has spread to his liver.
- Police in Belgium, France, Luxembourg and Italy raided about 30 offices and homes today in a corruption probe aimed at European Commission employees.
- K2 Advisors LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based investment firm with $5.5 billion in client money allocated to hedge funds, sold a minority stake of itself to buyout firm TA Associates.
- Luxury-home values in London, the world’s most expensive city, will probably increase 20% this year as wealthy buyers compete for a shrinking number of properties, real estate company Savills Plc said.
- US consumption of renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel would increase under legislation introduced today in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The bill would mandate that 8.5 billion gallons of renewable fuels be used to replace petroleum-based fuels by next year, rising to 36 billion gallons within 9 years. The bill has bipartisan support.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, and Eni SpA, Europe’s fourth-largest oil company, agreed to share technology for crop-based fuels production.
- Canada and Russia, the only net crude-oil exporters in the Group of Eight nations, will seek ways to promote joint energy projects that may lead to a global supply network, ministers from both countries said.
- FuelCell Enegy’s(FCEL) shares soared 20% after the Connecticut Clean Energy Fund recommended that utilities buy power from six planned projects using the company’s fuel-cell technology.
- Libya, the holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, is prepared to sell a majority stake in its oilfield-services company to a foreign partner such as Schlumberger Ltd.(SLB) or Halliburton(HAL), to increase exploration.
Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC is to review so-called 12b-1 fees, which mutual funds charge to pay for marketing services.
NY Times:
- Senator Hillary Clinton, the would-be Democratic nominee for the presidency, is cultivazting relationships with the military to avoid criticism her husband faced during his tenure in the office. The goal is to ease voter perceptions that associate her with her opposition to the Vietnam War, and criticism of President Bush’s current campaign to liberate Iraq.
Washington Post:
- Maryland’s state senate passed a bill to ban smoking in bars and restaurants.
Financial Times:
- Thomason Financial will start selling an international news service to clients in May as part of a plan to compete more widely with Bloomberg LP and Reuters Group Plc.
Handelsblatt:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) may complete a sale of its unprofitable Chrysler division by June, citing unidentified bankers.
Xinhua News Agency:
- Crude oil output at Shengli oilfield, China’s second largest, may rise 6% this year as the field’s operator expands exploration, citing the Shengli Petroleum Administrative Bureau. The field’s 2007 crude oil output may rise to 550,000 barrels per day.
- Gasoline futures are falling 1.4%, notwithstanding concerns over Iran and low US refinery utilization. Refineries in states including California and Texas are operating at reduced rates due to “recent unit failures and fires.” The margin, or crack spread, earned by refiners for turning crude oil into gasoline and heating oil is about 54% wider than a year ago.
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said that efforts to release 15 British sailors and Marines seized by Iran will enter a “different phase” if negotiations fail.
- US forces in Iraq arrested two men suspected of leading a terrorist cell responsible for car bombings that have killed about 900 civilians in Iraq.
- Mark Walton, head of the world’s largest animal cloning company, sees his biotech lab in Austin, Texas, as the next frontier in food production.
- Lennar Corp.(LEN), the largest US homebuilder by revenue, said earnings fell 73% during the fiscal first-quarter. The stock is near session highs, falling .7% on the report.
- White House Press Secretary Tony Snow has been diagnosed with recurrence of cancer and the disease has spread to his liver.
- Police in Belgium, France, Luxembourg and Italy raided about 30 offices and homes today in a corruption probe aimed at European Commission employees.
- K2 Advisors LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based investment firm with $5.5 billion in client money allocated to hedge funds, sold a minority stake of itself to buyout firm TA Associates.
- Luxury-home values in London, the world’s most expensive city, will probably increase 20% this year as wealthy buyers compete for a shrinking number of properties, real estate company Savills Plc said.
- US consumption of renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel would increase under legislation introduced today in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The bill would mandate that 8.5 billion gallons of renewable fuels be used to replace petroleum-based fuels by next year, rising to 36 billion gallons within 9 years. The bill has bipartisan support.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, and Eni SpA, Europe’s fourth-largest oil company, agreed to share technology for crop-based fuels production.
- Canada and Russia, the only net crude-oil exporters in the Group of Eight nations, will seek ways to promote joint energy projects that may lead to a global supply network, ministers from both countries said.
- FuelCell Enegy’s(FCEL) shares soared 20% after the Connecticut Clean Energy Fund recommended that utilities buy power from six planned projects using the company’s fuel-cell technology.
- Libya, the holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, is prepared to sell a majority stake in its oilfield-services company to a foreign partner such as Schlumberger Ltd.(SLB) or Halliburton(HAL), to increase exploration.
Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC is to review so-called 12b-1 fees, which mutual funds charge to pay for marketing services.
NY Times:
- Senator Hillary Clinton, the would-be Democratic nominee for the presidency, is cultivazting relationships with the military to avoid criticism her husband faced during his tenure in the office. The goal is to ease voter perceptions that associate her with her opposition to the Vietnam War, and criticism of President Bush’s current campaign to liberate Iraq.
Washington Post:
- Maryland’s state senate passed a bill to ban smoking in bars and restaurants.
Financial Times:
- Thomason Financial will start selling an international news service to clients in May as part of a plan to compete more widely with Bloomberg LP and Reuters Group Plc.
Handelsblatt:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) may complete a sale of its unprofitable Chrysler division by June, citing unidentified bankers.
Xinhua News Agency:
- Crude oil output at Shengli oilfield, China’s second largest, may rise 6% this year as the field’s operator expands exploration, citing the Shengli Petroleum Administrative Bureau. The field’s 2007 crude oil output may rise to 550,000 barrels per day.
Consumer Confidence Falls from 5-year Highs
- Consumer Confidence for March fell to 107.2 versus estimates of 108.5 and 111.2 the prior month.
BOTTOM LINE: Confidence among US consumers slid this month from a five-year high as fuel prices rose and concerns over housing rose, Bloomberg reported. However, more consumers said they saw jobs as plentiful than at any time in more than five years. The Jobs Are Plentiful component surged to 30.5% from 27.8% in February. Moreover, the present conditions component rose to 137.6, the highest since August 2001, versus 137.1 the prior month. The average price of regular gas rose to $2.58 as of March 25, the highest since last September. The Expectations component of the index fell to 86.9 from 93.8. The overall decline in consumer confidence was mostly a function of the decline in expectations, which isn’t surprising considering the media’s obsession with housing and the general lack of acknowledgment of the many positives in the current macro environment. As well, depressed Northeastern sentiment continues to skew the entire gauge, which is very interesting considering the states with the largest housing drags are not in the northeast. Here is a breakdown by region of the overall confidence readings:
Northeast Central 65.5
New England 90.6
Mid Atlantic 91.5
Northwest Central 105.80
South Atlantic 117.10
Pacific 121.50
Southeast Central 122.20
Southwest Central 130.0
Mountain 142.70
I continue to believe consumer confidence will break above recent cycle highs later this year as stocks continue to rise, housing sales stabilize at relatively high levels, interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates, gas prices fall and the job market remains healthy.
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said the Fed’s next monetary policy actions depend on incoming data, dropping reference in speeches since August to “additional firming” in interest rates.
- Nanya Technology Co. and Realtek Semiconductor Corp. will supply parts for an Apple Inc.(AAPL) product that allows Internet downloads to be shown on televisions. Nanya will supply memory chips for the Apple TV, or iTV, scheduled for release last this year, while Realtek will supply audio-conversion and networking semiconductors.
- CBS Corp.(CBS) replaced Joel Hollander as CEO of CBS Radio, naming veteran executive Dan Mason to take his place.
- Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani said he favors simplifying the US tax code by reducing rates and eliminating deductions, as well as getting rid of the death tax.
- MySpace.com, News Corp.’s(NWS/A) social-networking site, sued Sanford Wallace, who became known as the King of Spam in the 1990s, for setting up dummy profiles to direct MySpace users to Web sites such as Real-vegas-sins.com.
- BHP Billiton(BHP), the world’s largest miner, and rivals may spend more in 2007 on exploration than last year’s record $7.13 billion to search for metals in Asia and Africa. Miners will boost budgets again this year, after increasing expenditures 40% in 2006 from a year earlier, said Jason Goulden, director of corporate exploration at Metals Economics Group, a research company.
- Danny Bowman, vp for customer equipment at Sprint Nextel(S) says smart phones are Sprint’s fastest-growing business.
- Vinod Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and owner of venture capital firm Khosla Ventures, sees ethanol at a $1 a gallon within 10 years.
Wall Street Journal:
- New Century Financial Corp.(NEWC) may file for bankruptcy “imminently” after Barclays Plc and Morgan Stanley said they would take possession of loans previously used to secure financing, citing analysts.
AFP:
- Pakistani tribesmen in a region bordering Afghanistan signed an agreement with authorities to stop sheltering al-Qaeda and Taliban gunmen.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NT), target $35.
Banc of America:
- Rated (FSLR) and (SPWR) Buy.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.01%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ACN)/.42
- (GME)/.80
- (FUL)/.28
- (LEN)/.40
- (MKC)/.31
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to fall to 108.5 versus 112.5 in February.
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said the Fed’s next monetary policy actions depend on incoming data, dropping reference in speeches since August to “additional firming” in interest rates.
- Nanya Technology Co. and Realtek Semiconductor Corp. will supply parts for an Apple Inc.(AAPL) product that allows Internet downloads to be shown on televisions. Nanya will supply memory chips for the Apple TV, or iTV, scheduled for release last this year, while Realtek will supply audio-conversion and networking semiconductors.
- CBS Corp.(CBS) replaced Joel Hollander as CEO of CBS Radio, naming veteran executive Dan Mason to take his place.
- Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani said he favors simplifying the US tax code by reducing rates and eliminating deductions, as well as getting rid of the death tax.
- MySpace.com, News Corp.’s(NWS/A) social-networking site, sued Sanford Wallace, who became known as the King of Spam in the 1990s, for setting up dummy profiles to direct MySpace users to Web sites such as Real-vegas-sins.com.
- BHP Billiton(BHP), the world’s largest miner, and rivals may spend more in 2007 on exploration than last year’s record $7.13 billion to search for metals in Asia and Africa. Miners will boost budgets again this year, after increasing expenditures 40% in 2006 from a year earlier, said Jason Goulden, director of corporate exploration at Metals Economics Group, a research company.
- Danny Bowman, vp for customer equipment at Sprint Nextel(S) says smart phones are Sprint’s fastest-growing business.
- Vinod Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and owner of venture capital firm Khosla Ventures, sees ethanol at a $1 a gallon within 10 years.
Wall Street Journal:
- New Century Financial Corp.(NEWC) may file for bankruptcy “imminently” after Barclays Plc and Morgan Stanley said they would take possession of loans previously used to secure financing, citing analysts.
AFP:
- Pakistani tribesmen in a region bordering Afghanistan signed an agreement with authorities to stop sheltering al-Qaeda and Taliban gunmen.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NT), target $35.
Banc of America:
- Rated (FSLR) and (SPWR) Buy.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.01%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ACN)/.42
- (GME)/.80
- (FUL)/.28
- (LEN)/.40
- (MKC)/.31
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to fall to 108.5 versus 112.5 in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as slight gains in energy shares are offsetting slight losses in technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Stocks Rally into Close, Recoup Morning Losses
Indices
S&P 500 1,437.50 +.10%
DJIA 12,469.07 -.10%
NASDAQ 2,455.63 +.27%
Russell 2000 808.94 -.07%
Wilshire 5000 14,508.75 +.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 565.87 +.07%
Russell 1000 Value 830.65 +.06%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 709.06 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 966.84 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Technology 564.77 +.72%
Transports 4,909.15 -1.29%
Utilities 502.81 +.65%
MSCI Emerging Markets 116.39 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .99 +10.0%
NYSE Arms .96 +6.93%
Volatility(VIX) 13.16 +1.62%
ISE Sentiment 154.0 +36.28%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.97 +1.11%
Reformulated Gasoline 206.88 +3.53%
Natural Gas 7.27 +.14%
Heating Oil 177.30 +3.62%
Gold 664.50 +1.10%
Base Metals 246.83 -.35%
Copper 314.15 +2.36%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.60% -1 basis point
US Dollar 83.07 -.25%
CRB Index 312.27 +.43%
Leading Sectors
Internet +2.4%
Networking +1.24%
Computer Hardware +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.50%
Biotech -1.53%
Airlines -1.76%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (NCMI) Outperform.
Stifel:
- Upgraded (TIF) to Buy, target $54.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Target Corp.(TGT), the second-largest US discount chain, said sales at stores open at least a year will rise as much as 13% in March. The last time Target posted a gain of 11% or greater was November 2001. Same-store sales at about 80 retailers tracked by the Intl. Council of Shopping Centers in New York last month gained 2.5% after the coldest February since 1979. Most retailers will report final March results on April 12.
- Women who take aspirin in low or moderate doses reduce their risk of dying from any cause, particularly heart disease, a study concluded.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell to a 10-week low on speculation drier weather starting in the US Midwest in April will allow farmers to plant the crop quickly, leading to a bigger harvest.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, and Eni SpA, Europe’s fourth-largest oil company, may cooperate on ethanol projects in Africa, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi said.
- Fraser Armstrong says he’s discovered a renewable resource that’s all around us: microscopic organisms that create electricity from hydrogen in the air. Armstrong, a professor of chemistry at England’s Oxford University, unveiled a device at the American Chemistry Society’s spring meeting in Chicago today that harnesses the electricity produced by microbes when they consume hydrogen particles.
- US automakers’ CEOs urged President Bush to back incentives to bring ethanol and biodiesel to more pumps as the companies boost output of so-called flex-fuel vehicles. Half the vehicles made by GM(GM), Ford Motor(F) and DaimlerChrysler(DCX) could be able to run on biodiesel or E85, a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline, within 5 years, the CEOs said.
- Drugs are just as good as the medical devices called stents in helping patients with heart disease live longer and avoid heart attacks, a study found.
Barron’s:
- Shares of Telanetix Inc.(TNXI) rose as much as 44% after analyst Joe Noel of Dutton Assoc. said in Barron’s that the Internet-based video-conferencing company could become a takeover target.
S&P 500 1,437.50 +.10%
DJIA 12,469.07 -.10%
NASDAQ 2,455.63 +.27%
Russell 2000 808.94 -.07%
Wilshire 5000 14,508.75 +.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 565.87 +.07%
Russell 1000 Value 830.65 +.06%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 709.06 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 966.84 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Technology 564.77 +.72%
Transports 4,909.15 -1.29%
Utilities 502.81 +.65%
MSCI Emerging Markets 116.39 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .99 +10.0%
NYSE Arms .96 +6.93%
Volatility(VIX) 13.16 +1.62%
ISE Sentiment 154.0 +36.28%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.97 +1.11%
Reformulated Gasoline 206.88 +3.53%
Natural Gas 7.27 +.14%
Heating Oil 177.30 +3.62%
Gold 664.50 +1.10%
Base Metals 246.83 -.35%
Copper 314.15 +2.36%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.60% -1 basis point
US Dollar 83.07 -.25%
CRB Index 312.27 +.43%
Leading Sectors
Internet +2.4%
Networking +1.24%
Computer Hardware +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.50%
Biotech -1.53%
Airlines -1.76%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (NCMI) Outperform.
Stifel:
- Upgraded (TIF) to Buy, target $54.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Target Corp.(TGT), the second-largest US discount chain, said sales at stores open at least a year will rise as much as 13% in March. The last time Target posted a gain of 11% or greater was November 2001. Same-store sales at about 80 retailers tracked by the Intl. Council of Shopping Centers in New York last month gained 2.5% after the coldest February since 1979. Most retailers will report final March results on April 12.
- Women who take aspirin in low or moderate doses reduce their risk of dying from any cause, particularly heart disease, a study concluded.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell to a 10-week low on speculation drier weather starting in the US Midwest in April will allow farmers to plant the crop quickly, leading to a bigger harvest.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, and Eni SpA, Europe’s fourth-largest oil company, may cooperate on ethanol projects in Africa, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi said.
- Fraser Armstrong says he’s discovered a renewable resource that’s all around us: microscopic organisms that create electricity from hydrogen in the air. Armstrong, a professor of chemistry at England’s Oxford University, unveiled a device at the American Chemistry Society’s spring meeting in Chicago today that harnesses the electricity produced by microbes when they consume hydrogen particles.
- US automakers’ CEOs urged President Bush to back incentives to bring ethanol and biodiesel to more pumps as the companies boost output of so-called flex-fuel vehicles. Half the vehicles made by GM(GM), Ford Motor(F) and DaimlerChrysler(DCX) could be able to run on biodiesel or E85, a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline, within 5 years, the CEOs said.
- Drugs are just as good as the medical devices called stents in helping patients with heart disease live longer and avoid heart attacks, a study found.
Barron’s:
- Shares of Telanetix Inc.(TNXI) rose as much as 44% after analyst Joe Noel of Dutton Assoc. said in Barron’s that the Internet-based video-conferencing company could become a takeover target.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Computer longs, Internet longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly negative today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above-average into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish as the major averages and breadth recouped much of this morning's weakness. Considering there was little in the way of an upside catalyst, today's rebound was even more impressive. As well, the 10-year yield only finished 1 basis point lower despite today's new home sales report. It is interesting to note that corn trades very weak technically, falling another 3% today despite all the talk over the potential for a shortage related to increasing ethanol production. I suspect corn has at the very least made a meaningful intermediate-term top. Oil is about .67 higher today, which isn't too bad considering the Iranian situation has yet to improve. Internet stocks were today's best performing group, rising over 2%. I suspect Google (GOOG) is about to bust back above its 50-day moving average. Google is still my largest long position, however Apple (AAPL) is a close second due to recent appreciation. I expect tomorrow's consumer confidence report to come in below estimates due to the huge spike in anxiety surrounding the early March stock decline. Recent market gains will affect the April reading in a positive way. This will likely lead to some more early morning market weakness tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)