Monday, April 16, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The world’s largest shopping center looks almost deserted on a recent afternoon. While schoolchildren ride the sidewinder and roller coaster, there are few shoppers and fewer tenants at South China Mall in central Dongguan, a city of 6 million north of Hong Kong. “They did this mall all wrong,” says Stephen Liu, a Hong Kong businessman visiting clients in Dongguan who came by to see the place for himself. “They never found out if there were enough people to fill it. All the Chinese in this town are factory workers, they can’t afford to shop here.”

- Australian investment funds, flush with record inflows of cash, are increasing their overseas stock holdings as local shares become costlier.

- Senator Jeff Bingaman, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said the collapse of hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC suggests the need for more Congressional oversight of natural-gas markets regulation.

- The rising number of foreclosures among subprime mortgage borrowers would be slowed if banks postpone increases in interest rates written into adjustable-rate loans or offer fixed-rate loans, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said today.

- Obese teens who undergo stomach surgery to promote weight loss will be the focus of a government-funded study to determine whether the procedure is appropriate.

- Valero Energy(VLO), the largest US refiner, said it is gearing up to resume production at its “fire-damaged” refinery near Sunray, Texas. A crude unit and reformer are running again and the refinery is processing crude, Bill Day, a spokesman for the San Antonio-based company, said today. “We are still in the process of re-commissioning the refinery, and this process may take several days, but we still expect to achieve 85,000 barrels per day of throughput by the end of this month,” Day said. Unusually low refinery output across the country has been the main reason for the recent surge in gas prices.

- Crude oil was little changed in NY after stalling yesterday on signs increased refinery production will slow a decline in US fuel stockpiles.

Wall Street Journal:

- Intelsat Ltd., the world’s largest commercial satellite operator, may be sold by its private equity owners. Apollo Management, MDP Global Investors Ltd., Apax Partners and Permira Advisers may seek an equity value of up to $6 billion for the company they bought in August 2004 for $3 billion.

Financial Times:

- The number of foreign students applying to US graduate schools has increased for a second consecutive year, rising 8%, citing a survey by the Council of Graduate Schools. The current increase is mostly driven by a rise in applicants from India and China.

Calgary Herald:

- A $353.2 million biodiesel plant backed by buyout firms the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Holdings LLC will be built near Innisfail, Alberta.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations

Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (UNM), raised target to $30.

- Google(GOOG) continued to gain query share in March. Share increased 20 basis points month-over-month to a record high 48.3% of the US market. This market share gain continues a very consistent trend for Google(GOOG) and highlights a potential gating factor to Yahoo!’s(YHOO) attempts to gain search revenue share.

- Reiterated Buy on (MCO), raised target to $80.

Night Trading

Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

S&P 500 indicated -.08%.

NASDAQ 100 indicated -.05%.

Morning Preview

US AM Market Call

NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map

Pre-market Commentary

Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)

Global Commentary

Asian Indices

European Indices

Top 20 Business Stories

In Play

Bond Ticker

Conference Calendar

Daily Stock Events

Macro Calls

Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices

CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note

Company/EPS Estimate

- (AM)/.16

- (KO)/.53

- (CMA)/1.18

- (CSX)/.52

- (DJ)/.19

- (EMC)/.14

- (HTLD)/.18

- (INTC)/.22

- (IBM)/1.21

- (JNJ)/1.05

- (JOSB)/1.25

- (KEY)/.71

- (LLTC)/.32

- (MTB)/1.57

- (MI)/.83

- (MEL)/.58

- (PPDI)/.34

- (RF)/.67

- (STX)/.51

- (SHFL)/.07

- (STT)/.91

- (STI)/1.41

- (AMTD)/.24

- (TRMK)/.47

- (USB)/.65

- (WM)/.84

- (WFC)/.65

- (YHOO)/.11

Upcoming Splits

- (NRP) 2-for-1


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Consumer Price Index for March is estimated to rise .6% versus a .4% gain in February.

- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in February.

- Housing Starts for March are estimated to fall to 1495K versus 1525K in February.

- Building Permits for March are estimated to fall to 1510K versus 1532K in February.

9:15 am EST

- Industrial Production for March is estimated to remain unch. versus a 1.0% gain in February.

- Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to fall to 81.9% versus 82.0% in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher, Led by Financials, on Strong Earnings and Buyout Activity

Indices
S&P 500 1,468.47 +1.08%
DJIA 12,720.46 +.86%
NASDAQ 2,518.33 +1.06%
Russell 2000 831.44 +1.47%
Wilshire 5000 14,838.65 +1.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 579.05 +1.39%
Russell 1000 Value 847.46 +1.09%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 723.50 +.78%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 987.88 +1.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 582.59 +1.07%
Transports 5,104.10 +1.37%
Utilities 512.63 +.47%
MSCI Emerging Markets 123.51 +1.10%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .82 -13.68%
NYSE Arms .64 -20.28%
Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -1.80%
ISE Sentiment 103.0 -15.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.62 -.02%
Reformulated Gasoline 212.71 -2.41%
Natural Gas 7.47 -4.24%
Heating Oil 185.95 -2.18%
Gold 694.50 +.67%
Base Metals 271.35 +1.10%
Copper 355.50 +.54%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.73% -3 basis points
US Dollar 82.11 -.01%
CRB Index 314.76 -1.0%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +3.30%
Banks +1.96%
Alternative Energy +1.70%

Lagging Sectors
REITs +.24%
Hospitals +.16%
Gaming -.08%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CIBC:
- Rated (GRMN) Sector Outperformer.
- Rated (ITRN) Sector Outperformer.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A gunman carried out the deadliest shooting rampage in US history today, killed at least 32 students and faculty at Virginia Tech University before turning the gun on himself. Another 28 people were hospitalized with gunshot wounds and other injuries. Neither the gunman’s identity or motive have been determined.
- The S&P 500 surged to its highest in more than six years, catapulted by higher-than-expected bank and drug company earnings and the $25 billion takeover of student-loan provider SLM Corp.(SLM).
- The yen may extend its decline against the euro and the dollar before a government report that economists forecast will show Japanese consumer confidence fell last month.
- Bear Stearns’(BSC) private equity unit agreed to buy Universal Hospital Services for $712 million. The company helps hospitals manage medical equipment and improve productivity of nurses.
- Pat Vredevoogd Combs, president of the National Association of Realtors, says the “worst is over” for the US housing market.
- The US may ease ethanol import duties by the end of next year, helping Brazilian producers gain access to markets in the world’s largest consumer of the fuel, Brazil’s top ethanol official said today.
- Natural gas fell 3.5%, the most in two months, as forecasters said a trend of below-average temperatures would ease later this week, while supplies remain almost 30% above the five-year average for this time of the year.
- Great Plains Energy’s(GXP) Kansas City utility is seeking bids for up to 400 megawatts of electricity generated from by wind by 2012 to increase supplies from renewable energy sources.
- Exxon Mobil’s(XOM) refinery in Torrance, California, is restarting units after completing two months of “maintenance.”
- Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush called on the US to end a tariff on Brazilian ethanol to help boost distribution of the crop-based fuel and foster a world market for it.
- Black & Decker(BDK), the biggest US maker of power tools, said first quarter profit exceeded its forecast on an increase in orders. The stock surged 7% after-hours.

Women’s Wear Daily:
- Neiman Marcus Group(NM/G) is considering an IPO of shares as early as the summer.

Reuters:
- Nigeria plans to resume oil production from the Forcados oil fields in the western Niger delta by the end of this month. Nigeria has scheduled 5 million barrels of oil for export in June.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Magna International, Canada’s largest autoparts maker, may be in advanced talks with DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) about the potential acquisition of its Chrysler unit.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Telecom longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Retail longs. I didn’t trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. The S&P 500 is now near a seven-year high. I-banks were today's outstanding performers, with the Broker/Dealer Index(XBD) rising 3.3%. Despite the market's strong showing, the airwaves were once again filled with gloom and doom about housing today. Meanwhile, the August housing price futures rose again to $214,800. Gasoline futures fell almost 3% today and the crack spread, while still extraordinarily elevated, fell 10%. I continue to believe gasoline has been propping up the whole energy complex. While today's headline gains were impressive, the sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks are especially noteworthy. I suspect stocks will open modestly lower on a knee-jerk reaction to tomorrow morning's economic data; however, losses will likely proved short-lived as record shorts and underinvested bulls will likely use any near-term weakness to cover and buy.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Positive Earnings Reports, Buyout Activity

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Biotech longs and Retail longs. I added Goldman Sachs(GS) long and added to a few shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is about average. Google (GOOG) is rising 1.9% on its DoubleClick acquisition announcement. I like this deal and think it will further widen the gap between GOOG and the competition if approved. Google remains my largest long position. Stocks have flat-lined higher over the last couple of hours as I sense many are still in disbelief at the market and economy's resiliency. Performance anxiety is likely coming back into play in a big way. Mid-cap stocks continue to trounce the S&P 500 as they sport 8%+ gains already this year. As I have said many times of late, the current environment has been very good for stockpickers and now the major averages seem to be kicking into gear. The underlying tone of the broad market remains very constructive despite so many bears and a large number of bulls who have recently raised cash ahead of earnings reports and the "sell in May” strategy. It is a big positive, as well, to see the financials participate today. The ISE Sentiment Index is plunging 19% to a depressed 99.0 as retail options traders remain very bearish into market strength. This is a market positive. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, buyout speculation, rising earnings optimism, lower long-term rates and bargain-hunting.

Retail Sales Strong, NY Manufacturing Still Muted, Net Long-Term TIC Flows Decelerate, Business Inventories Rise

- Advance Retail Sales for March rose .7% versus estimates of a .6% gain and an upwardly revised .5% rise in February.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for March rose .8% versus estimates of a .9% gain and an upwardly revised .4% increase in February.
- Empire Manufacturing for April fell to 3.8 versus estimates of 7.5 and a reading of 1.9 in March.
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for February fell to $58.1 billion versus estimates of $75.0 billion and $98.8 billion in January.
- Business Inventories for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .2% rise in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Retail Sales in the US rose in March by the most in three months as rising incomes and better weather ensured consumers would continue to drive economic growth, Bloomberg reported. “Concerns about the consumer’s staying power have been greatly exaggerated,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. The economy has created about 2 million jobs in the last year, the unemployment rate is a historically low 4.4% and Americans’ net worth is at record highs despite the housing slowdown. I expect retail sales to moderate a bit in April before another strong showing in May.

Manufacturing growth in NY remain subdued in April. The New Orders component of the index rose to 3.9 from 3.1 in March. The Inventories component rose to 7.1 versus 4.7 in March, which was the first rise this year. The Prices Paid component rose to 40.5 versus 30.2 in March. I continue to believe manufacturing activity is improving overall modestly as inventory de-stocking runs it course.

Net international buying of US long-term securities slowed in February, Bloomberg reported. Including short-term securities, foreign investors purchased a net $94.5 billion versus $79.6 billion the prior month. International purchases of US stocks fell to a net $13.5 billion, compared with net purchases of $22.8 billion the previous month. The DJIA fell 3.3% on Feb. 27 on worries over the housing market. Many economists point to the difference between the US trade gap and securities purchased by international investors as evidence of how easily the US can finance its external obligations. I expect international investors’ demand for US assets to remain strong as the dollar firms, the twin deficits shrink further and economic growth remains healthy compared to other industrialized economies.

Business Inventories rose less than sales in February, a positive sign for factory production, Bloomberg reported. At the current sales pace, the amount of goods on hand is 1.29 months. I continue to believe substantial inventory de-stocking led to substantially below trend growth in 1Q, however inventory rebuilding should begin adding to overall economic growth this quarter.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Intraday Chart/Quote

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The yen may weaken to a record low against the euro after officials from the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the Japanese currency’s weakness is a threat to the global economy.
- Russian police arrested opposition leader and former world chess champion Gary Kasparov along with more than 100 supporters and several journalists at an unsanctioned protest against President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
- President Bush, looking ahead to a meeting with lawmakers next week about a standoff on emergency funds for the troops in Iraq, said the inability to resolve differences on the issue is putting an unnecessary strain on the military.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) agreed to buy DoubleClick for $3.1 billion in its biggest-ever acquisition, gaining software for creating and measuring Internet advertising campaigns.
- European officials said that their economies can withstand the effects of the advancing euro and that a strong currency brings benefits.
- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations said they are confident disparities in global trade and growth are starting to narrow, a trend that will extend the strongest expansion since the 1970s.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today that his government is prepared to hold talks with any Arab countries that want to discuss a comprehensive Middle East peace plan approved by the Arab League last month.
- DeCode Genetics(DCGN), an Icelandic biotechnology company, will sell the first genetic test for type 2 diabetes risk in the US.
- Brazil’s surging currency is eroding exports for manufacturers of goods ranging from cars to teddy bears and undermining President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s efforts to lower unemployment.
- Apple’s announcement that it has delayed the release of its new Macintosh system software didn’t garner much negative reaction from major investment firms including Merrill Lynch(MER), Goldman Sachs(GS) and Deutsche Bank.
- European governments, led by Germany, continued to push the Group of Seven industrial nations to tighten oversight of hedge funds, against US opposition.
- Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association sees a housing turnaround in 2008.
- Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, plans to increase production and will work to achieve “fair” prices, the Saudi Press Agency reported, citing a speech by King Abdullah. Saudi Arabia “works for achieving fair oil prices, taking into considering the interests of both producers and consumers,” the king said. The kingdom “also seeks to enhance its production capacity of oil.” Saudi aims to increase overall production to 12.5 million barrels a day within 21 months from 9.1 million barrels a day currently.
- China, the world’s biggest producer of aluminum, may further lower or remove tax benefits for export of the metal and copper to help rein in a record trade surplus. Tax rebates on exports of copper and aluminum products may be further reduced or cancels, while tax on exports of refined copper could be raised to as much as 30%, said Wang Gongmin, vice chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Assoc.
- Shares of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl., China’s largest chipmaker, surged 12% after a report said US buyout firms may seek to buy as much as a 25% stake for about $600 million.

Wall Street Journal:
- A partnership including JC Flowers & Co. LLC and JPMorgan Chase(JPM) are in talks to acquire Sallie Mae(SLM), competing with Blackstone Group for a deal that could reach $20 billion.
- Why Investors Should Consider Real Estate.
- The New York Mercantile Exchange(NMX) plans to launch a uranium futures contract.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), AT&T(T) and Time Warner(TWX) want US regulators to review whether Google’s(GOOG) $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick Inc. gives the company too much control over the online advertising market.

NY Times:
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton proposed cutting 500,000 private contractors from the federal payroll. Some contractors cost more than federal workers and aren’t as competent or accountable, citing a speech given by Clinton last night at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.
- The number of available hotel rooms in Lower Manhattan may more than double in the next few years as more than 3,000 rooms are under construction or in planning stages.
- For four days last December, America’s dome in the desert, Las Vegas, played host to a convention dedicated to the proposition that growing old is “a treatable medical condition.”
- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Bain Capital Partners LP have proposed raising their $26 billion offer for broadcaster Clear Channel Communications(CCU).

Washington Post:
- Some of Iraq’s main Sunni militant groups are splitting from al-Qaeda in Iraq because they want to negotiate with US troops to hasten their withdrawal. The Islamic Army last week on its Web site called on bin Laden to stop groups killing in his name.
- Central Intelligence Agency Director Michael Hayden said absorbing the new employees who joined after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks is the most challenging part of his job. Hayden said 50% of the CIA’s employees have been hired since Sept. 11 and one-fifth of the analysts were hired in the last year.

Inquirer:
- The Philadelphia Inquirer will print ads on its front page starting tomorrow, joining a handful of US newspapers running ads on a page once dedicated solely to news.
- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court granted a preliminary injunction to stop Philadelphia from putting an anti-casino referendum question on a May 15 primary-election ballot.

Advertising Age:
- Google’s acquisition of Doubleclick gives the company something it couldn’t build on its own – a significant presence in the online display-ad market. The $3.1 billion price tag was a small price to pay to keep Microsoft(MSFT) or any other rival from getting it.

Financial Times:
- Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. will have to raise its bid for Chrysler or drop its demand for exclusive negotiations with the automaker’s German parent.

Observer:
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and its partners are prepared to make a hostile bid for ABN Amro Holding NV if they aren’t able to secure an agreed deal for the Dutch bank.

El Pais:
- Eastman Kodak(EK) will post a profit in 2008, Chairman Antonio Perez said.

Automotive News Europe:
- Continental AG, the world’s fourth-largest tiremaker, is unable to serve all customer requests on hybrid technology because of a shortage of skilled staff. Hannover, Germany-based Continental would need to double its 160-member team dealing with hybrid systems to satisfy an increase of as much as 60% in customer demand. The company has raised investment in hybrid systems as higher gasoline prices spur demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles.

El Naqcional:
- Corruption in Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez is implementing a socialist state, is widespread and oversight agencies are failing to root it out, citing lawmaker Pastora Medina.

Economic Daily News:
- Toshiba Corp. may raise orders from its chip-packaging and testing partner, Powertech Technology Inc. by 40%.

South China Morning Post:
- Best Buy(BBY) bought an additional 20% stake in Nanjing, China-based Jiangsu Five Star Appliance to expand to second and third-tier cities.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s lending growth will slow further as the government continues to tighten liquidity, citing central bank vice governor Wu Xiaoling. The central bank’s “preemptive” measures to curb loan growth and soak up excess liquidity has started to slow bank lending, as shown by the March money supply data, Wu said.

Gulf Times:
- Emaar Properties PJSC is among companies from the United Arab Emirates that may invest billions of dollars in northern Iraq, citing the Kurdish trade minister.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (DOW), (ADBE), (KSWS) and (ODP).
- Made negative comments on emerging markets.

Citigroup:
- Google’s(GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick 1) will substantially improve GOOG’s position in the online display segment(30% of total net advertising 2)will broadly strengthen GOOG’s competitive position vs. Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) and 3) an all-cash deal vs. the all-stock YouTube deal & still leaves GOOG with $9.2 billion in cash.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AUO).

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AMLN)/-.04
- (CHP)/-.05
- (C)/1.09
- (ETN)/1.41
- (LLY)/.79
- (EXBD)/.27
- (MAT)/-.05
- (WB)/1.16

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance Retail Sales for March are estimated to rise .6% versus a .1% gain in February.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for March are estimated to rise .9% versus a -.1% gain in February.
- Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 7.5 versus 1.9 in March.

9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for February are estimated to fall to $75.0 billion versus $97.4 billion in January.

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .2% gain in January.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 35 versus 36 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.