DJIA Finishes at Another All-Time High, Led by Cyclicals

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Robert “Bo” Collins, founder of the $400 million MotherRock LP hedge fund that collapsed last year, plans to start a new energy trading company next month. The firm will be called 1.618 Group LLC.
- Ritchie Capital Management Ltd. agreed to sell a “significant portion” of the assets in its flagship hedge fund to NY-based Reservoir Capital Group, a step toward returning cash to investors.
- Late payments on subprime mortgages that underlie derivative indexes rose at a slower pace in March, according to Barclays Capital Inc. and Bear Stearns(BSC). A second month of slower increases in late payments of more than 60 days, foreclosures and seized property suggests stabilizing performance for mortgage bonds issued in the past 18 months, according to Barclays.
- Japan’s consumer prices fell more than economists predicted and industrial production unexpectedly dropped, reducing the likelihood the central bank will raise interest rates.
- The yen dropped to a record low versus the euro after Japanese consumer prices fell more than expected and industrial production declined.

Financial Times:
- French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has the support of the leaderships of Germany, the UK and Belgium.
- Gao Xiqing, vice chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, said China’s stock prices are “defying gravity.” The fund is selling stocks to cut its risk to the climbing market, Gao said.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- Cooper Cos.(COO), an optical, surgical and medical-diagnostic products maker trying to turn itself around and seeking a CEO, is a potential takeover target.
- Shares of Metabolix(MBLX), a maker of biodegradable plastic and chemicals, may rise 61% in the next 12 months. Cantor Fitzgerald LP analyst Pamela Bassett said Metabolix’s bioplastics is the only one that can biodegrade in the earth, sea or sewer without incineration or industrial composting. She said the stock will rise to $40 in the next year.
- Shares of Progressive Corp.(PGR), the low-cost auto insurer, are undervalued and will gain on strong earnings, citing Michael Camp, a principal at Northwest Criterion.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (OSIP), target raised to $46.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.20%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BEBE)/.13
- (BKC)/.22
- (CVX)/1.68
- (CVH)/.80
- (CMI)/.94
- (GT)/-.12
- (IR)/.71
- (IRF)/.59
- (ITT)/.68
- (MSTR)/1.28
- (NOV)/1.33
- (GAS)/.98
- (PD)/3.61
- (PCU)/1.88

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance 1Q GDP is estimated to rise 1.8% versus a 2.5% gain in 4Q.
- Advance 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 3.5% versus a 4.2% gain in 4Q.
- Advance 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 3.0% versus a 1.7% gain in 4Q.
- 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise .9% versus a .9% gain in 4Q.

10:00 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated at 85.3 versus prior estimates of 85.3.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Links of Interest

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***Alert***

Blogging will be light over the next few days due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience and thanks for reading.

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- New Zealand’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to a record 7.75%, the second increase in seven weeks.
- Nigeria’s president-elect Umaru Yar-Adua said he’s ready to run in fresh elections if the courts annul his victory in the April 21 polls because of fraud.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) said second-quarter profit rose 88% after demand soared for its iPod media players and Macintosh computers. The company’s shares surged 6.3% in extended trading.
- Congress can limit violent television programming without violating the free-speech rights of broadcasters, according to an FCC report.
- The House of Representatives approved a war spending bill tonight that requires US troops to withdraw from Iraq, beginning Oct. 1.

Dow Jones:
- The International Monetary Fund is more closely monitoring the impact of yen carry trades on markets in developing countries and may raise the issue in annual talks with some countries.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
HSBC:
- Rated (URBN), (ANN), (ANF) Overweight.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.38%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
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Global Commentary
Asian Indices
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In Play
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (MMM)/1.11
- (AET)/.77
- (DOX)/.50
- (AMT)/.06
- (APA)/1.60
- (APPB)/.33
- (AN)/.40
- (AVID)/.20
- (BIDU)/.37
- (BZH)/.12
- (BYD)/.53
- (BMY)/.23
- (BRCM)/.27
- (CAH)/.91
- (CCU)/.15
- (CMCSA)/.17
- (CFC)/.79
- (DECK)/.51
- (DO)/1.47
- (DRIV)/.53
- (DOW)/1.00
- (XOM)/1.52
- (FII)/.50
- (FLEX)/.19
- (F)/-.60
- (FO)/.86
- (HAL)/.52
- (IMCL)/.32
- (IM)/.39
- (KLAC)/.78
- (LVLT)/-.22
- (MBI)/1.47
- (MFE)/.33
- (MDC)/-.24
- (WFR)/.69
- (MCHP)/.34
- (MSFT)/.46
- (MNST)/.34
- (NEM)/.24
- (NYX)/.50
- (ODP)/.59
- (SNDK)/.17
- (SOHU)/.17
- (HOT)/.38
- (TDW)/1.46
- (VLO)/1.82
- (WDC)/.47
- (XMSR)/-.39
- (ZOLL)/.14

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 330K versus 339K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2523K versus 2531K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.