Housing Starts Rise, Building Permits Fall, Industrial Production Surges

- Housing Starts for April rose to 1528K versus estimates of 1480K and 1491K in March.
- Building Permits for April fell to 1429K versus estimates of 1520K and 1569K in March.
- Industrial Production for April rose .7% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a -.3% decline in March.
- Capacity Utilization for April rose to 81.6% versus estimates of 81.5% and 81.2% in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Housing starts in the US unexpectedly rose last month, while building permits fell more than estimates, Bloomberg reported. Housing starts soared 31% in the Northeast and rose 7.8% in the West. Starts fell 14% in the Midwest and .1% in the South. The number of homes under construction fell .5%. The number of housing units authorized, but not yet started, decreased 6.1%. I continue to believe home sales are stabilizing at relatively high levels, while new home construction remains muted throughout the year as builders work down inventories.

Industrial Production in the US rose more than forecast last month as cold weather boosted electricity demand and manufacturers stepped up output after whittling down excess inventories, Bloomberg said. Autos and high-tech goods led the gains in factory output. Utility production rose 3.5%. Nationwide, April was the coldest in a decade, which boosted output. I continue to believe companies are increasing production to build depleted inventories as demand remains healthy.

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Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- ESL Investments Inc., the hedge fund started by Edward Lampert, disclosed it has built an $800 million stake in Citigroup Inc.(C), the largest US bank.
- BHP Billiton(BHP) and rival Australian mining and energy companies are planning a record $36.2 billion of new projects, 24% higher than the amount reported in October by the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- The Fed’s Hoenig, speaking tonight in Denver, said the US economy will strengthen going forward and that inflation will recede further. Hoenig also said the current 5.25% target rate is “modestly firm.”
- Steel-product output in China, supplier of one-third of global steel, rose 21% in April compared with a year earlier.
- Copper futures fell for a fifth day in Shanghai after Chinese imports grew faster than expected, raising concern that the world’s biggest consumer of the metal may be oversupplied.
- Twenty-nine percent of Americans approve of the way the Democrat-controlled Congress is doing its job, down 4 percentage points from last month. Approval of President Bush’s job performance is holding steady at 33%, according to a Gallup poll released today.
- The yen may fall to a record low versus the euro for a second day as signs of weaker economic growth suggest the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) said NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo plans to file a lawsuit over its customer practices.
- Australian wage growth unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter, suggesting the central bank won’t need to raise interest rates this year.
- South Korea’s department store sales fell for the first time in three months in April, suggesting rising gas prices and a slowing housing market may be chipping away at consumer spending.
- New Century Financial Corp.(NEWC), the largest subprime lender in bankruptcy, received another offer for its loan-servicing unit that tops the initial $133.3 million bid by Carrington Capital Management LLC, a lawyer said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, will advise Allianz SE’s Pacific Investment Management. Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, will be Greenspan’s first client since he left his government job in January 2006. The move means Greenspan, 81, will end his self-imposed ban on discussing Fed policy on interest rate changes.

Financial Times:
- Amvescap Plc may move its main listing from London to New York after US investors increased their combined holdings in the firm to nearly 50%.
- DNO ASA, a Norwegian oil company that explores in the North Sea and Middle East, plans to start selling crude oil pumped in Iraq, citing CEO Eide. Gross production capacity may reach 20,000 to 30,000 barrels a day in the second half of the year.
- Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest mutual-fund company, slashed its stake in PetroChina Co.(PTR) after being pressured to sell shares of companies doing business in Sudan, according to a regulatory filing today.
- BP Plc’s(BP) refinery in Toledo, Ohio, is expected to be back in full operation by Friday, about four weeks after the company closed a catalytic cracking unit at the plant. The Toledo refinery has been in operation since 1919 and has the capacity to process about 160,000 barrels of crude oil a day.

China Securities Journal:
- Foreigners investing in China’s stock markets through the so-called QFII program cut their holdings of domestic shares by .48 percent in the first five months of 2007, citing the head of CLSA Ltd.’s China research unit. As valuations for domestic stocks keep climbing, foreign investors may switch to the Hong Kong stock market, according to Liu Wei.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (DISH), target raised to $59.00.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.19%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CTRP)/.23
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Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Housing Starts for April are estimated to fall to 1480K versus 1518K in March.
- Building Permits for April are estimated to fall to 1520K versus 1564K prior.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for April is estimated to rise .3% versus a -.2% decline in March.
- Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 81.5% versus 81.4% in March.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly gasoline build of 1,000,000 barrels versus a 372,000 barrel increase the prior week. Crude oil supplies are estimated to remain the same versus a 5,511,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by 1,250,000 barrels versus a 1,630,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise .75% versus a .78% gain the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (GENZ) analyst/investor day, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference, Bank of America Smid Cap Conference, CSFB Semi & Supply-Chain Summit, UBS Global Financial Services Conference, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, Oppenheimer Semiconductor Conference and Morgan Stanley Communications Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Profit-taking and Higher Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,501.19 -.13%
DJIA 13,383.84 +.28%
NASDAQ 2,525.29 -.83%
Russell 2000 814.18 -.99%
Wilshire 5000 15,085.00 -.25%
Russell 1000 Growth 589.39 -.38%
Russell 1000 Value 866.30 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 737.72 +.07%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,056.21 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 601.26 -.96%
Transports 5,126.27 +.16%
Utilities 529.90 +.30%
MSCI Emerging Markets 124.98 +.06%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .92 +6.98%
NYSE Arms .84 +2.08%
Volatility(VIX) 14.01 +.36%
ISE Sentiment 127.0 -20.13%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.04 +.93%
Reformulated Gasoline 230.20 +.03%
Natural Gas 7.85 -1.22%
Heating Oil 188.93 +1.21%
Gold 673.20 +.46%
Base Metals 276.02 -.59%
Copper 353.0 +.94%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.70% +1 basis point
US Dollar 81.77 -.35%
CRB Index 310.48 +.46%

Leading Sectors
Road&Rail +1.28%
Telecom +.83%
Steel +.77%

Lagging Sectors
REITs -1.56%
Computer Hardware -1.67%
Airlines -2.05%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Merrill Lynch:
- Reiterated Buy on (TXI).

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Senator Charles Grassley proposed legislation that would subject hedge funds to stricter oversight and routine inspections, reinstating rules struck down by a federal court last year. The measure would require hedge-fund managers with at least 15 investors and more than $50 million in assets to register with the SEC. Grassley, citing the collapse of Amaranth Advisers LLC in September, said he’s concerned that increasing investments in hedge funds by pension funds could jeopardize American’s retirement savings.
- Sugar plunged to a 23-month low after C. Czarnikow Sugar Ltd., the world’s biggest broker of the sweetner, said a 2007 global surplus will be larger than estimated. The commodity has plunged 26% just this year.
- Federal Reserve officials raised concerns about deflation as early as November 2001, about a year-and-a-half before they disclosed to the public that interest-rate policy was responding to “an unwelcome” fall in inflation. “I think we are moving gradually from a disinflationary process toward a situation where we could experience outright deflation,” then-Chairman Greenspan told the FOMC meeting that month, according to transcripts released today in Washington.
- XM Satellite Radio Holdings(XMSR) suspended the hosts of the “Opie & Anthony” morning show for 30 days because they aired crude remarks about raping First Lady Laura Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
- Limited Brands(LTD) agreed to sell a majority of its Express unit and put its Limited Stores up for sale after first-quarter profit fell to half the company’s previous forecast.
- Applied Materials(AMAT) said fiscal second-quarter profit was little changed because of costs to close a business and acquire another. The shares fell 4% in after-hours trading.

Reuters:
- AT&T(T) may extend its satellite TV partnership with EchoStar Communications(DISH) into its territory in the southeastern US, citing an AT&T executive.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Computer longs and Retail longs. I added to my (EEM) short and to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish as the major averages and breadth finished near session lows. Too many market leading stocks gathered downside traction as the day progressed. Technology and small-cap shares were especially weak. Talk of this turning into a Nifty 50 type narrow market advance is way too premature, in my opinion. Cumulative breadth just made a record high a few days ago and the ValueLine Geometric Index, the best gauge of the broad market, is still performing in line with the S&P 500 year to date. The DJIA is up 7.4% year to date vs. a 6.6% gain in the S&P 500. My intraday gauge of investor angst finished only around average levels, notwithstanding today’s declines. I suspect we will see some more mixed-to-weaker trading in the near-term.

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking and Higher Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is above average. Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales rose 2.7% this week. This is up from +0.2%, unchanged, +0.1% and +0.1% over the last four weeks. As well, this is just slightly below the 50-week average of +2.9%. I suspect with expectations dramatically lowered for the retail group, sales will actually exceed expectations this summer. If gas prices are peaking for the year right about now, as I suspect, retail sales should move back above average levels this fall. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index is still 6.3% higher year-to-date, despite the recent pullback in the stocks on consumer collapse fears. As well, the ABX-HE-BBB-07-01 subprime index, the source of much angst during the blow-off top in subprime fears in March, made a higher high yesterday and is up 17.6% from its lows. This is a big positive. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as profit-taking and higher energy prices offsets better economic data and buyout speculation.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Japan’s lower house passes a bill to extend its deployment in Iraq for two years, ensuring the country’s continued commitment to the US effort.
- NYC apartment prices rose 23% over the past year, citing a study by the Real Estate Board of NY. The average price of an apartment sold in the five boroughs was $745,000 last quarter, with units in Manhattan selling for more than $1.1 million, the study showed.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said regulators must use insider-trading laws to prevent abuses in the expanding market for credit-default swaps and other derivatives.
- Crude oil rose above $63 a barrel in NY after Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced an additional cut in Nigerian output.
- Confidence among US homebuilders this month unexpectedly fell to the lowest in eight months.
- Ingersoll-Rand(IR) may sell or spin off the Bobcat construction-equipment unit to focus on its more stable cooling, industrial and security divisions.
- Mergers and acquisitions, fueled by corporate deals in Europe and US buyouts, reached the $2 trillion market today, 60% ahead of last year’s record pace.

Wall Street Journal:
- Cerberus Capital Management LP’s decision to buy 80.1% of DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler unit for $7.4 billion was seen by investors as a vote of confidence in the US care industry.
- IAC/Interactive Corp.(IACI), parent of Ticketmaster, is buying a stake in Front Line Management, which represents artists including singers Christina Aguilera and Neil Diamond.
- Text Messages are the latest political tool of presidential candidates.

NY Times:
- Hotel companies have started nearly 30 new brands since 2005, as boutique-like residences are being opened to attract younger travelers, citing PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

AP:
- Iranian parliamentary members are collecting signatures with a view to establishing an Iran-US friendship committee in the Islamic Republic’s parliament, citing a lawmaker.
- Walt Disney(DIS) will unveil an interactive television channel to promote its theme parks and travel business.

Financial Times:
- General Electric(GE) may have received four bids for its plastics unit, including one from Saudi Basic Industries, the biggest public company in the Mideast.

Daily Telegraph:
- PayPal, the online payments company owned by EBay Inc.(EBAY), is being turned into a bank to strengthen its European business and to ward off a challenge from Google Inc.(GOOG), citing Brent Bellm, PayPal’s European chief.