Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Demand for new commercial-mortgage securities outstripped supply last week “for the first time in quite a while,” according to RBS Greenwich Capital.
- The perceived risk of financial companies defaulting on their debt fell after Goldman Sachs Group(GS), the world’s largest securities firm, said quarterly profit rose more than analysts estimated.
- DreamWorks Animation(DWA) had its biggest rise in more than three years on the NYSE after saying it will buy back as much as $150 million of its shares.
- Bank of America(BAC), Citigroup(C) and JPMorgan(JPM), designed to bail out short-term debt markets, will start making purchases from structured investment vehicles “within weeks.”

- The US House of Representatives approved energy legislation that will phase out incandescent light bulbs and boost the fuel efficiency of new cars and the gas they use. President Bush plans to sign the measure.
- The cost to borrow in euros plunged after the European Central Bank added an unprecedented $500 billion to the banking system as part of a global effort to ease credit-market gridlock through year-end.

- Oil is falling another $.80/bbl. on speculation that demand is waning, supplies are rising and the US dollar will firm.
- Best Buy(BBY), the largest US consumer-electronics retailer, said third-quarter profit rose more than analysts estimated on sales of flat-panel televisions, laptop computers and video-game consoles.

- Goldman Sachs(GS), the world’s largest securities firm, reported record earnings in the worst quarter for Wall Street in six years.
- Thornburg Mortgage(TMA) rose 6.4% in NY after resuming its dividend. Founder Garrett Thornburg resigned as CEO.
- Industrial metals including copper and aluminum have peaked and probably will decline as supplies gain in the next 12 to 18 months, Fitch Ratings said.

Wall Street Journal:
- The US Federal Reserve should avoid revealing if inflation or economic growth is its focus when it explains interest-rate decisions, citing Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser.
- Founders Fund Management, a San Francisco venture-capital firm known for hot investments such as Facebook Inc., has raised $220 million for a new fund to go after more early-stage deals.

- Luxury-Car Sellers Put on the Ritz.
- Market commentators who attacked the US Federal Reserve for cutting interest rates by only a quarter-point last week don’t see far enough ahead, according to Kenneth Rogoff, formerly the chief economist at the IMF and now a professor at Harvard.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs met NTT DoCoMo Inc. President Masao Nakamura to discuss selling the iPhone handset in Japan.

Boston Globe:
- Five of New England’s largest banks will commit at least $100 million to refinance subprime mortgages, citing executives.

AP:
- Americans probably spent more this year on mobile telephone services than on land lines for the first time, citing government officials and analysts.

AFP:
- Turkish troops who crossed the boarder into northern Iraq started to withdraw, citing the office of Massoud Barzani, president of Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value (-.24%)

Sector Underperformers:

I-Banks (-1.59%), Gaming (-.92%) and Tobacco (-.75%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

DCP, ASFI, STAR, COHR, ACMR, SYNA, ZGEN, STKL, RIGL, ACIW, PSYS, EHTH and PENX

Housing Starts Fall as Builders Work Down Inventories

- Housing Starts for November fell to 1187K versus estimates of 1176K and 1232K in October.

- Building Permits for November fell to 1152K versus estimates of 1150K and 1170K in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Housing starts in the US dropped in November and permits for future construction fell to a 14-year low, Bloomberg reported. Starts fell 16% in the Northeast, 6.9% in the West and 1.5% in the Midwest. Starts rose .3% in the South. New home construction will continue to be a drag on overall growth over the intermediate-term as homebuilders work down inventories.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.59%)

Sector Outperformers:

Computer Services (+1.49%), Utilities (+1.44%) and Telecom (+.91%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

KND, KWK, TNL, RRC, BHS, TPL, EICU, EMKR, WWIN, PSEC, BMTI, ADBE, IMKTA, CONN, SLXP, COMV, OTEX, PWRD, DDUP, MICC, SYNT, CNSL, AHII, CRNT, CLWR, GMO, HES, KEP, SMG and SHFL

Links of Interest

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Monday, December 17, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his department will soon issue a report with suggestions on how to lower US corporate taxes, which he called “relatively high.”
- Forest Labs(FRX) and Mylan Inc.(MYL) won US approval for a new medicine for high blood pressure after 2 ½ years of delays.
- China is studying extra lending curbs to prevent overheating in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, according to a central bank official.
- The Federal Reserve will make it harder for lenders to charge fees for early repayment of subprime mortgages, according to consumer advocates and a regulator.

MarketWatch.com:
- NetSuite IPO highlights hot software space. Dutch-auction method, Ellison backing expected to increase attention.
- When economic historians tally up the global winners and losers of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown, the dollar will be in the loser column – but it’s not likely to stay there throughout the year to come.
- Tech in 2008: Steady, solid growth. Analysts say tech will benefit from utility computing, virtualization trends.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Innovation Predictions 2008.
- Asia-Pacific to Spend $154 Billion on IT. China and India will lead the charge, says research firm IDC, with government spending and green IT initiatives fueling some of the momentum.

USA Today.com:
- Gasoline prices under $3 a gallon, government says.

Reuters:
- President Fidel Castro suggested he doesn’t intend to hold on to power in Cuba and will make way for younger leaders.

Financial Times:
- There is no limit to the amount of money the Federal Home Loan Bank System can lend to support the mortgage finance industry as long as investors are willing to keep on buying its debt at moderate prices, said the system’s regulator.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (GM), target $41.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.38%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BBY)/.41
- (GS)/6.34
- (DRI)/.50
- (HOV)/-1.63
- (TTWO)/-.08
- (PRX)/.22
- (PAY)/.37
- (LDK)/.36
- (PALM)/-.10
- (FDS)/.58

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Housing Starts for November are estimated to fall to 1179K versus 1229K in October.
- Building Permits for November are estimated to fall to 1150K versus 1170K in October.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed governors meeting on the mortgage situation, weekly retail sales reports, (CHH) analyst meeting, (ALO) analyst meeting, (CBLI) investor update and (BCR) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in financial shares are offsetting losses in commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.