BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:58 PM

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush will meet with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke tomorrow as he considers whether to announce a new economic stimulus package.

Wall Street Journal:
- Cloned Livestock Poised To Receive FDA Clearance.
- Obama, Huckabee Emerge As Winners of Iowa Caucus.

MarketWatch.com:
- No need to worry. The oldest boomers are in better shape for retirement than thought.

IBD:
- Telecom Carrier Verizon Is Tuning Up Its FiOS TV Service.
- Financials Drag Down Large-Cap And Value Funds In December.

USA Today.com:
- Female CEOs Make More Gains in 2007.
- GPS gadget Spot can save your hide, for a price.
- iPhone’s future intrigues observers.
- Big restaurant chains are rushing into what could be the future of takeout and delivery food; text ordering.

Reuters:
- Bonds of US banks and brokers should turn around in 2008, helped by interest rate cuts and capital infusions, Bank of America strategists said on Thursday.
- Boeing Co.(BA) said on Thursday it delivered 441 commercial aircraft in 2007, its best performance in six years and up 11% from 2006.
- Top-20 selling vehicles in US through December.

Financial Times:
- Chinese state investor buys Australian bank stakes.

China Daily:
- The US encourages high-tech exports to China, US Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez has said amid calls in his country for suspension of a program under which high-tech products are sold to China.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (DPZ), target $20.
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (MON), raised target to $140.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (TXI)/.88
- (AZZ)/.54
- (SHLM)/.26

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for December is estimated at 70K versus 94K in November.
- The Unemployment Rate for December is estimated at 4.8% versus 4.7% in November.
- Average Hourly Earnings for December are estimated to rise .3% versus a .5% gain in November.

10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for December is estimated to fall to 53.6 from 54.1.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kohn speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and Morgan Stanley Pharmaceutical Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology shares and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mostly Lower Ahead of Jobs Report

Posted by Gary .....at 4:06 PM

Evening Review
Market Summary
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Anxiety Ahead of Tomorrow's Jobs Report

Posted by Gary .....at 3:43 PM

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high again. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The total put/call hit a high 1.24 again this morning and the ISE Sentiment Index hit a depressed 82.0. For the sixth day in a row, the NYSE Arms is high, hitting an elevated 1.77. Fed funds futures now imply a 24.1% chance for a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, up from a 7.8% chance last week. Trading has a very sloppy/choppy feel to it today. Retail stocks are under significant pressure, which is weighing on the broad market. It looks to me like there is a lot of beginning of the year profit-taking still going on in last year’s winners. As well, it seems new shorts are being placed on last year’s already heavily shorted losers. I still see few signs that large buyers are stepping up. I suspect we will see large buyers finally emerge next week. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as more economic pessimism, increased shorting and rising anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report offsets bargain hunting, lower energy prices and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:47 PM

Bloomberg:
- SunTrust Banks(STI) bought a minority interest in Alpha Equity Management LLC to expand its hedge fund offerings.
- For the first time since the August freeze in the credit markets, companies issued more IOUs backed by collateral as the cost to borrow in the short-term debt fell to the lowest in 22 months.
- The cost of borrowing in euros, dollars and pounds fell for a fourth day, suggesting central bank efforts at reviving interbank lending are working.
- Crude oil fell after an Energy Dept. report showed that US gasoline and diesel inventories rose as refineries increased operating rates.
- US airline delays in November fell for the third consecutive month.
- Monsanto Co.(MON) more than doubled first-quarter profit and raised this year’s earnings forecast after demand for food and biofuels boosted corn plantings in South America.
- Average global temperatures will be lower in 2008 than in any year since 2000 because of cooling waters in the Pacific Ocean, according to an estimate from the Met office, the UK weather forecaster.

Wall Street Journal:
- New Office for Macs Speeds Up Programs, Integrates Formats.
- Wireless HDTVs to Be on View at Tech Show.
- China Stocks Could Be Hindered In 2008 by Slower Profit Growth.

ABC News:
- Housing Slump?” Not in Manhattan.

IBD:
- The Big 10: Top Hedge Fund Trades of 2007.

AFP:
- Iran would receive “no benefit” by opening diplomatic or trade relations with the US administration, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:53 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value (-.86%)

Sector Underperformers:

Coal (-3.86%), Retail (-2.42%) and REITs (-1.94%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

JTX, CVS, SFG, SFLY, OSIP, CYMI, BLOG, VRTX, PCBC, PNRA, YRCW, SONC, LVS and ALJ