Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
Exchange Volume vs. Average
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Intraday Chart/Quote
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the credit crisis probably is more than half over and retained his forecast for the US economy to keep growing.
- Orange juice, the worst-performing commodity this year, dropped another 3.9% as the dollar gained against the euro and rain was expected to help the harvest in Brazil, the biggest citrus grower. Orange juice futures are now down 17% so far this year.
- American Airlines(AMR) and British Airways Plc are in talks to broaden their Oneworld alliance to add Continental Airlines(CAL) and seek antitrust immunity to set prices and schedules.
- Former Fed officials William Poole and Susan Bies said today it wouldn’t be wise for policy makers to cut the benchmark US interest rate below the current 2 percent.
- The man accused of running the Emperors Club VIP, a prostitution ring at the center of a probe tied to the resignation of NY Governor Eliot Spitzer, is nearing a deal to plead guilty.
- High-yield bonds in the US and Europe are headed for the biggest monthly rally since April 2003.

Wall Street Journal:
- Intel Corp.(INTC) says it is scrambling to meet early demand for a forthcoming line of low-end microprocessor chips.
- The number of children infected with a deadly virus in eastern China has increased by nearly 700 in the past two days. The virus has killed 20 children since it was discovered last month.

MarketWatch.com:
- Microsoft(MSFT) board fails to reach decision on next step. Options for its Yahoo(YHOO) bid included simply walking away.
- Text of Federal Open Market Committee’s decision.

CNBC.com:
- Recession? What Recession? Before you declare a recession, as many economic pundits have, shouldn’t the economy, well, actually recess a bit – if only for a quarter?

NY Times:
- NY Times/CBS News poll: Among Hillary Clinton supporters in the Democratic primary, just 49% say they would feel satisfied if Mr. Obama wins, while 50% would be dissatisfied. Nearly 25% of Clinton supporters say they would be very dissatisfied.

BusinessWeek.com:
- How Google(GOOG) Fuels Its Idea Factory.
- Medical Advances – Through Your iPhone? Researchers are beginning to understand how mobile phones can cut costs, help solve rural health-care problems, and even reduce medical errors.

Boston Herald:
- Obama official: Pro-Clinton group a ‘Swift Boat wannabe’ Barack Obama’s presidential campaign wants federal regulators to investigate fellow Democrats who are backing Hillary Rodham Clinton’s candidacy., taking intraparty discord to a new level of confrontation.

USA Today.com:
- The Federal Reserve’s action on Wednesday was the latest in an interest-rate-cutting drive over eight months that’s helped lower the yields that many adjustable-rate mortgages are tied to. Thanks to the Fed’s cuts, the rates to which those ARMs have been resetting have sometimes saved homeowners hundreds of dollars a month.

MSNBC.com:
- Farmers say don’t blame ethanol for food prices. Industry spokesman calls linking the two ‘manufactured hysteria.’ Poor weather conditions and a falling dollar should share blame for rising prices, but the ethanol industry said the biggest driver has been increasing fuel costs. Despite a vigorous defense by farmers and ethanol firms, there were signs in both parties and both chambers that Washington’s love affair with ethanol may have just been a fling. Options under consideration include suspending the tariff on imported ethanol, which would allow US firms to import Brazilian ethanol at much lower costs. Brazilian ethanol is made from sugar and costs about a third as much to produce as the corn-based version.

Reuters:
- Game console prices may be cut: Activision CEO
- Google Inc's(GOOG) top priority this year is to make money off its YouTube video-sharing site, Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said in a TV interview that sent Google's shares up 4.7 percent.

Financial Times:
- Fed hints at pause as rates cut to 2%. The suggestion of a pause came by way of the Fed dropping its explicit focus on the “downside risks” to growth. It also dropped a pledge to act “in a timely manner” and highlighted the “substantial easing” of monetary policy that has already taken place.
- The falling dollar has helped Atlanta, GA to emerge as a particularly desirable location in which to hold conferences and training sessions. The city has burst into the Economist Intelligence Unit’s list of top ten global destinations for business travel, occupying 6^th position. Three other US cities make the list. Here is the top ten:

The Scotsman:
- As an economist who has made the study of “happiness” one of his academic interests, David Blanchflower’s warning of the danger of Britain plunging into recession are not likely to produce nationwide joy and delight.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (LEH), target $65.
- Reiterated Buy on (CSCO), target $27.
- Reiterated Buy on (OMTR), target $30.
- Reiterated Buy on (AKAM), target $42.

CSFB:
- Reiterated Outperform on (FSLR), raised target to $330.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (NBL)/1.67
- (RDC)/.86
- (PTEN)/.50
- (CVS)/.55
- (WMB)/.51
- (TYC)/.58
- (EXPE)/.22
- (CLX)/.75
- (CMCSA)/.19
- (XOM)/2.13
- (CAH)/1.01
- (ASF).48
- (WYN)/.35
- (NMX)/.82
- (D)/.89
- (TBL)/.18
- (MRO)/.82
- (BKC)/.27
- (CI)/.96
- (EK)/-.04
- (HOLX)/.36
- (FAF)/.14
- (APA)/3.02
- (CEPH)/.98
- (MNST)/.21
- (N)/-.02
- (MET)/1.48
- (JAVA)/.19
- (DRIV)/.48
- (ADP)/.75
- (ACS)/.87
- (CHK)/.93
- (WYNN)/.68
- (DLB)/.42
- (QLGC)/.26
- (GMCR)/.20
- (NNDS)/.58
- (MORN)/.43

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for March is estimated to rise .4% versus a .5% gain in February.
- Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in February.
- The PCE Core for March is estimated to rise .1% versus a .1% gain in February.
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 365K versus 342K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2950K versus 2934K prior.

10:00 am EST
- ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated at 48.0 versus 48.6 in March.
- ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated at 83.5 versus 83.5 in March.
- Construction Spending for March is estimated to fall .7% versus a .3% decline in March.

Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for April are estimated at 15.0M versus 15.1M in March.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (ADBE) analyst meeting, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Challenger Job Cuts report and Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by Retail and Technology Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Profit-Taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs and Gaming longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is mildly bearish as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising 1.7% and remains above average at 20.6. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 155.0 and the total put/call is below average at .82. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day and is currently 1.22. Fed fund futures currently imply a 78.7% chance for no rate cut and a 20.6% chance for a 25 basis point cut at the June 25 meeting. Investors initial negative reaction to today’s 25 basis point fed funds rate cut and less-hawkish-than-expected FOMC commentary seems overdone to me. The Fed did and said what was necessary to prepare the markets for an end to the long string of rate cuts, which should help strengthen the US dollar further and pressure commodities over the coming weeks. I suspect comments from Fed speakers over the next two months will become increasingly more hawkish as the June meeting approaches. Nikkei futures indicate an +51 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +13 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and less economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost to protect US corporate bonds from default fell to an almost four-month low after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate for the seventh time since the global credit turmoil began last year. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index of 125 companies in the US and Canada dropped 4 basis points to 90 basis points as of 2:22 pm in NY, according to Phoenix Partners Group.
- The Fed lowered its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2%, the seventh cut since the onset of a global credit squeeze that’s eroded economic growth.
- General Motors(GM), the world’s largest automaker, posted a smaller first-quarter loss than analysts estimated. The stock is surging 12% on the report.
- AMR’s(AMR) American Airlines and British Airways may expand their marketing alliance and include Continental Airlines(CAL) as the carriers seek to boost sales without a merger.
- Chinese banks may risk higher bad loans after posting record profits in 2007, due to tighter credit controls and a slowing economy, the nation’s banking regulator said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Iraq Oil Revenue May Top Outlook. Report Urges Nation To Spend More Cash On Reconstruction.
- Getting to Know John McCain.
- This summer Starbucks(SBUX) is adding a line of smoothie-like drinks.

NY Times:
- Now short sellers are drawing fire once again. Across the world, these market bears are being accused of spreading rumors, persecuting companies and unsettling entire economies. Even on Wall Street, where money is seen as the ultimate measure of success, some wonder whether the shorts have gone too far. Some Wall Street executives question whether unscrupulous short sellers caused the collapse of the investment bank Bear Stearns(BSC). Others complain that shorts have been telling lies about other major firms in an attempt to sink stock prices. “This does beyond rumors,” Senator Chris Dodd said. “This is about collusion.” Concern about short sellers’ growing power gained new urgency last week when the SEC accused a former short seller of spreading false rumors about a big takeover and then profiting from the ploy. On the NYSE, short selling is running near record levels. Just over 4% of all the shares on the Big Board were sold short as of March. That figure excludes many rapid trades made every day. In all, short selling probably accounts for 25% or more of all trading.
- Three rival teams of computer researchers are working on new types of software needed to better use computer chips that can process many tasks at the same time.

TimesOnline:
- Homeowners in the UK will bear the brunt of a City slowdown as Britain takes the biggest hit of the global credit crisis, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs predicted today.

Business Report:
- While rising food prices are causing concern globally, South Africans can expect some relief as local farmers boost production. The crop estimates committee put the crop at 11 million tons, 55% higher than last year’s 7.1 million tons, when drought and lower prices produced only a modest crop. The wheat planting season was also under way in Argentina and Australia, which last year was seriously affected by drought. Expectations of improved supply as the year progresses are reflected in the difference between international spot wheat prices and prices for December.

Xinhua:
- China’s biggest trade fair received fewer buyers from developed economies and triggered fewer orders because of weak consumer demand in export markets, citing Xu Bing, a spokesman for the organizers. Visits from Japanese buyers plunged 28%.

Azzaman:
- Iraq’s Kirkuk crude oil exports to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan climbed to 430,000 barrels a day in April. Iraq built its Ceyhan crude stocks to 4.5 million barrels because there were no attacks against the pipeline or major disruptions this month. Iraq exported 323,000 barrels a day of Kirkuk crude in March.

Ynet News:
- Speaking at a conference in Gaza, Mahmoud al-Zahar warns Israel Hamas has 200,000 suicide bombers waiting to attack.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value +.07%

Sector Underperformers:

Papers (-1.58%), Tobacco (-.79%) and Construction (-.73%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SOHU, CBI, SGY, BDE, RAI, SVVS, HTCH, RSTI, VPRT, SWIR, GRMN, FEIC, ADVS, HSII, ELON, HW, JLL, CL and TNB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) JBHT 2) OTEX 3) JCG 4) RDC 5) AEO