Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- U.S. stocks rose, erasing the 2009 loss in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as results from the government’s examination of banks reassured investors and the Labor Department said the pace of job cuts slowed in April. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. helped push financial stocks in the S&P 500 to a 23 percent surge this week after the U.S. said lenders need $74.6 billion in capital. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the review should provide “considerable comfort.” Energy stocks gained as oil reached a six-month high of $58.69 a barrel on data, including a home-sales improvement, suggesting the recession has eased. The S&P 500 increased 5.9 percent to 929.23 this week, giving it a 2.9 percent rally in 2009. “The macroeconomic data suggests that the worst is over,” said Quincy Krosby, the Hartford, Connecticut-based chief investment strategist at Hartford, which oversees $330 billion. “There’s been a healing process in the banking sector.”

- The swine flu virus so far lacks the killer traits of the 1918 Spanish pandemic or the bird flu fatal to half those it infects, American scientists said. The genetic blueprint of the new H1N1 virus sweeping the globe is “good news,” Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for science and public health of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said today.

- Ship owners are being forced to pay to carry oil from the Middle East to the U.S. for the first time in at least a decade after demand collapsed and the fleet expanded. Supertanker owners make no rental income from the voyages and are paying $3,445 a day toward fuel costs, data from the Baltic Exchange in London show. Rental rates normally cover fuel costs. The journey to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest export facility, earned owners as much as $104,663 a day in July.

- Malaysia’s central bank said it will lower the country’s 2009 economic forecast amid a worse-than- expected slump in exports, predicting the nation will recover in the second half of the year. “The export contraction was much greater than was earlier envisaged,” Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said in an interview in Singapore today.

- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst loss in at least two decades as the billionaire chairman worked to recover from a “major mistake” of buying ConocoPhillips shares with oil prices near their peak. The first-quarter net loss of $1.53 billion, or $990 a share, compares with profit of $940 million, or $607, in the same period a year earlier, the Omaha, Nebraska-based firm said yesterday in a statement. Writedowns on derivatives tied to corporate-debt indexes cost the company about $1.3 billion and Berkshire took a $1.9 billion charge on oil producer ConocoPhillips, contributing to its first net loss since 2001.

- Asian bank interest rates and the cost to protect corporate bonds against default declined. The Markit iTraxx Australia index was quoted 10 basis points lower at 212 basis points as of 10:05 am in Sydney, Westpac Banking Corp. data show. The Markit iTraxx Japan index was quoted 5 basis points lower at 225 as of 10:02 am in Tokyo, according to Morgan Stanley.

- World trade may be no better than it was at the end of last year, judging by the number of inactive oil tankers, commodity vessels and car carriers at anchor. Ships carry about 90% of world trade, according to The Round Table of Intl. Shipping Assoc. “There’s more lingering and idling and waiting to find business,” said Andreas Vergottis, London-based research director at Tufton Oceanic Ltd., the world’s largest shipping hedge-fund firm. Anchoring “is a manifestation of slack” as trade dwindles and the global fleet expands, he said. To cope with the glut of ships, owners are also accepting smaller cargoes and ordering captains to slow down to conserve fuel, Vergottis said. There’s a 30% oversupply of container ships, 20% in oil tankers, and as much as 15% in coal and iron-ore carriers, he said. The situation may worsen because the fleet is expanding faster than any likely recovery in world trade, Vergottis said.

- Growth in the Middle East will fall by 50 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund forecast, as it encouraged countries in the region to boost government spending to stimulate their economies. The economies of the world’s three biggest oil producers, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, will contract as lower energy prices force production cuts and tighter credit availability squeezes the private sector, the Washington-based lender with 185 member nations said in its Regional Economic Outlook report today. Saudi Arabia will have a decline in economic growth of 0.9 percent, compared with a 4.6 percent increase last year. “The drop in oil prices has most directly affected the oil-exporting countries, whose oil revenues in 2009 will be less than half what they were in 2008,” the IMF said. “The tightening of international credit markets and lower investor appetite for risk is affecting capital inflows, depressing asset prices and reducing investments in these countries.” The economy of the United Arab Emirates, the Arab world’s second-largest economy, is forecast to contract 0.6 percent after growing 7.4 percent last year, while Kuwait’s economy is projected to contract 1.1 percent after 6.3 percent growth in 2008, the IMF said. “We think 2009 will be a reality check for the region,” Howard Handy, chief economist at Riyadh-based Samba Financial Group, said at the conference. “This will prompt a healthy re- prioritization of the huge project pipeline, a correction in overheated real estate markets and a wakeup call for banks.”

- Dallas voters approved building a $356 million hotel designed to increase the volume of conventions in the city. The convention center hotel passed by a margin of 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent with all 534 precincts reporting, according to Dallas County election results, as voters rejected yesterday a question that would have prohibited building the project.

Wall Street Journal:

- China's aggressive stimulus has steadied its big economy faster than many expected. But the Chinese government hasn't yet delivered the deep structural changes that are needed to keep growth on track after those funds run out. In the cities, hugely profitable businesses are still reserved for state firms, limiting the expansion of the private sector. In the countryside, market overhauls have languished since the 1990s, giving farmers few incentives to invest in their land. Exports supercharged China's expansion during the past few years, but world-wide trade is shrinking this year for the first time in decades. With U.S. consumers likely to save more for years to come, they no longer will be a bottomless source of demand for Chinese goods. "The stimulus is a stopgap, not a solution," says Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing. Rural enterprises account for more than a quarter of China's economy but receive only about 5% of bank loans, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a multinational research outfit based in Paris. State-owned enterprises still dominate key service sectors such as transport and communications. Removing the barriers to private businesses entering those fields, many economists argue, would raise the efficiency of the whole economy and encourage a new wave of investments in profitable sectors. While stabilizing economic growth is crucial, the People's Bank of China said in its quarterly report last week, "it is even more important to speed up the pace of economic restructuring, innovation and reform." But that could conflict with another priority for China's government: building up national champions. While state enterprises have piled up record earnings in recent years, officials have been reluctant to harvest their profits or introduce more competition. Says Zhang Shuguang, an economist at the Unirule Institute, one of China's few independent think tanks: "The problem is that the government directly or indirectly controls too many resources. Its own interests are at stake."

- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), International Business Machines Corp.(IBM), AT&T Inc.(T), Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) and Time Warner Inc.(TWX) are among the companies shedding some workers, while adding others.

- Quants are back to wearing boots at work. But they aren't dealing with another 100-year flood, just yet. A number of quantitative hedge funds have been crushed lately, even as the stock market soars, causing a stir on Wall Street. These funds, which rely on sophisticated computer models, generally have beaten the market over the past few years. But they have suffered sharp losses in short time spans, such as in August 2007. That is something their whiz-bang models said was almost impossible, raising questions about their approach. Some are taking on water yet again. Jim Simons's RIEF fund fell more than 16% this year, through April 24, while two big funds operated by MAN AHL, the largest publicly traded fund, are each down about 10%, investors said. Some trend-following funds, which had positioned themselves for more market troubles, have lost as much as 10% in the past month or so.

- Mr. Asness's remarks capture what many hedge fund managers say they feel but would never say publicly: They have been disappointed by the Obama administration, left detached from a leader to whose party they gave 70% of their overall campaign donations during the 2008 election, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. "Let's also mention only in passing the irony of this same president begging hedge funds to borrow more to purchase other troubled securities," wrote Mr. Asness, 42 years old, whose firm wasn't directly involved in the Chrysler situation. Some hedge funds have said that a key part of PPIP could unfairly benefit Allianz SE's Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock Inc. among a handful of large asset-management firms seen as more politically connected. "The programs, identified by innocent sounding acronyms like 'PPIP,' 'TARP' and 'TALF,' are rapidly changing, confusing and interwoven," Mr. Singer wrote. He said the programs could cause taxpayers losses while resulting in "concentrated large profits reaped by a small group of anointed gatekeepers."

- The White House's role in restructuring Chrysler has sent a shudder through the community of lawyers and lenders in the field of bankruptcy and corporate workouts. Critics complain that the administration has violated a bedrock principle of American capitalism and unfairly demonized financial firms that are vital to the functioning of the economy and its eventual recovery. The administration could exert such leverage because it was convinced big banks were too tarnished in the public eye to put up a fight. They risked being blamed for Chrysler's demise. And if Chrysler had to liquidate, they and other lenders would have to try to recover their money by selling closed auto plants and other assets that are little in demand.

- The Iraqi federal oil ministry said Sunday it will allow the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq to start exporting crude oil in June to world markets after blocking such shipments for the past two years. The Kurds and the central government, which grants all oil-export licenses, have been at odds since 2007 over Iraq's draft hydrocarbons law and oil contracts that the Kurds signed with foreign companies. Despite those issues being still unresolved, Baghdad -- under increased financial strain because of weak oil prices and falling revenue -- will allow the Kurds to begin exporting 60,000 barrels a day from June 1, oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said.

- White House National Security Adviser James Jones rejected Afghanistan's demands that American forces halt air strikes in his country, despite protests there over a U.S. strike that allegedly killed dozens of Afghan civilians. The conflict over U.S. air strikes comes as the Obama administration is seeking to launch a new counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, and could hobble cooperation between the two governments to rein in the Taliban. "The war on terrorism is not in the Afghan villages, not in the Afghan homes," Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai told NBC News's "Meet the Press," which aired on Sunday. "Civilian casualties are undermining support in the Afghan people for the war on terrorism and for the relations with America."

- General Motors Corp.(GM) has hired an executive-search firm to help find replacements for at least half of its 12 directors, reflecting the Obama administration's increasing influence over the auto maker.

Barron’s:

- The blogger sentiment poll on Birinyi Associates' Ticker Sense blog (http://www.tickersense.typepad.com) last week showed 50% bears to 33% bulls -- almost as many bears as at the early-March lows. In late January, just as the market was ready to roll over hard, 65% of the bloggers were bullish.

- HEDGE FUNDS UNDERWENT THEIR OWN STRESS TEST in 2008. devastating losses and massive redemptions overwhelmed the limits the funds tried to put on withdrawals, sending assets into a tailspin. From a high of $1.9 trillion, assets under management dropped to $1.4 trillion at year-end 2008 and then to about $1 trillion today. In all 1,471 hedge funds were liquidated last year.

MarketWatch.com:

- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. said Monday that it will acquire $600 million Morgan Stanley(MS) common shares, bringing its stake in the U.S. investment bank to over 20%. The Japanese bank said it will pay $24 per share and buy 25 million shares on May 13. However, because Morgan Stanley will redeem around Y60 billion of nonconvertible preferred shares under the transaction, MUFG will not pay additional cash for the purchase.

- AT&T(T) has agreed to buy certain wireless assets from Verizon Wireless(VZ) for $2.35 billion in cash. Under the deal, AT&T (T) will acquire licenses, network assets and 1.5 million wireless subscribers in 79 service regions. The subscribers are mostly in rural areas across 18 states.

- A day after Target Corp.(TGT) forecast its first-quarter profit will be "well above" Wall Street expectations, the No. 2 U.S. discount retailer was upgraded Friday at both J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse on improved outlooks for both its credit-card segment and retail-store operations.

CNBC.com:
- The results of the stress tests on 19 of the biggest US banks have left European banks exposed, as they now look vulnerable to recapitalization needs and to claims that not all checks were made to ensure rules were being followed, analysts said on Friday. "Compared to the US, the European banking system is rapidly being left behind on the bank recapitalization front," UBS analysts said in a research note. "Unlike the US stress test that set out clear objectives, framework, and deadlines, there is no major policy initiative to recapitalize banks in Europe," they added. European bank stocks rallied Friday, boosted by relief that no bad surprises arose from the results of the US stress tests, but UBS kept its underweight recommendation, while upgrading their weighting on US banks' stocks to neutral from underweight.

NY Times:

- More States Use GPS to Track Abusers.

- China’s frenetic construction of coal-fired power plants has raised worries around the world about the effect on climate change. China now uses more coal than the United States, Europe and Japan combined, making it the world’s largest emitter of gases that are warming the planet. But largely missing in the hand-wringing is this: China has emerged in the past two years as the world’s leading builder of more efficient, less polluting coal power plants, mastering the technology and driving down the cost. While the United States is still debating whether to build a more efficient kind of coal-fired power plant that uses extremely hot steam, China has begun building such plants at a rate of one a month.

- As Taliban militants push deeper into Pakistan’s settled areas, foreign operatives of Al Qaeda who had focused on plotting attacks against the West are seizing on the turmoil to sow chaos in Pakistan and strengthen the hand of the militant Islamist groups there, according to American and Pakistani intelligence officials.

Washington Post:
- The Obama administration is preparing to revive the system of military commissions established at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, under new rules that would offer terrorism suspects greater legal protections, government officials said. The rules would block the use of evidence obtained from coercive interrogations, tighten the admissibility of hearsay testimony and allow detainees greater freedom to choose their attorneys, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Civil liberties advocates, who insist that federal courts can handle terrorism cases, vowed to challenge any new process. "We'll litigate this before they can proceed, absolutely," said Anthony D. Romero, the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union.

TheStreet.com:

- Dear SEC: Reinstate Uptick Rule.

Business Week:
- For the first time in more than a decade, ESPN is making a push into the regional sports business. But this time ESPN is going online, instead of offering a service on TV. The launch a month ago of ESPN Chicago, a Web site for sports fanatics in the Windy City, has the potential to set off a digital war in regional sports as the existing stalwarts with local sports networks, Fox (NWS) and Comcast (CMCSA), prepare to fend off ESPN.

Nj.com

- Princeton University has a problem with paper. It uses far too much of it. Last year alone, campus printers spit out 15 million pages. Amazon.com(AMZN), the huge online retailer, has a splashy new version of its Kindle electronic reader, one that's twice as big as its predecessor and that allows users to make notations and highlight words or passages on its digital pages. Beginning this fall, Princeton and five other colleges across the country will put the new device to the test to determine if it can help reach a goal of a paperless society, or at least a society that uses much less paper.

USA Today:

- Nissan plucked a prototype of its electric car from a demonstration for Washington, D.C., bigwigs and brought it to USA TODAY Wednesday for a runaround. The body and interior are not at all like the production version. That'll be a four-door, front-wheel-drive hatchback that can hold four or five passengers. But the battery pack and electric motor in the prototype are the same that'll be in the small car, which will start down the assembly line in fall 2010 in Japan.

Wealth Bulletin:

- Around one in six hedge funds continued to curtail withdrawals at the end of March, despite investors being under less pressure to pull their money out as the markets stabilized, research has found. At the end of the first quarter of this year, about 17% of all hedge funds were not allowing investors pull all their money out at once, according to a study published today by Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

Denver Post:

- Thousands of super-efficient houses that generate all the power they use are underway in Colorado, a proliferation that promises to make the net-zero movement affordable. "We are seeing more and more really highly efficient off-the-grid homes on a mainstream scale in Colorado more than we ever have before," said Deb Kleinman , executive director of Colorado's chapter of the U.S. Green Building Council. "People are watching Colorado, and net-zero will soon become the new goal to push for." A net-zero house or community uses only power generated from solar, wind and underground geothermal systems. It generates all the electricity it uses, ending dependence on natural-gas or coal-powered electricity.

HartfordBusiness.com:

- Even though the state maintained its title as a hedge fund Mecca, Connecticut’s 10 largest funds lost a combined $14.7 billion in assets last year, reflecting the overall struggles the industry went through as the stock market began to tumble in the fall. Connecticut’s 10 largest hedge funds had a combined $119 billion in assets at the end of 2008, down from $134 billion in the year-ago period, according to data provided Alpha Magazine, a New York-based financial publication.

eFinancialCareers:

- What’s a PhD with a bias towards quantitative finance to do? Banks have gone from screaming from the rooftops that they want quants, to whispering that they're only interested in a select handful of them. This leaves a lot of people on the sidelines.

Lloyd’s List:

- PRICES for ships sold for recycling could fall as low as $100 per ldt in the coming months, as demand for ship demolition continues to grow. Demand in increasing at a time when shipbreaking facilities are full to capacity and could increase if more tanker owners look to sell vessels for scrap. A broker, who preferred not to be identified, told Lloyd’s List: “We believe the main trend will be for prices to go down further to below $200 per ldt. Up to now, despite huge supply, prices have remained above $200 and relatively firm by historic standards. “The average price between 1988 and 2001 was about $170 per ldt and prices are still above that level. But in the late 1990s yards were buying vessels for demolition for as little as $100 per ldt and we could see such prices back again.”

AP:

- Top representatives of the health care industry plan to offer $2 trillion in cost reductions over 10 years in a bid to help pass President Barack Obama's health overhaul, a source familiar with the negotiations said Sunday. Industry officials representing health insurers, hospitals, doctors, drug makers and a major labor union plan to be at White House on Monday to present the offer.

Reuters:

- The U.S. economy is expected to begin growing in the second half of this year, while the jobless rate is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2010, according to a survey of top forecasters released on Sunday. The consensus forecast of panelists surveyed in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter for May predicted economic growth, as measured by real gross domestic product, would shrink 2.8 percent in 2009 but grow 1.9 percent in 2010. The economic downturn is expected to ease in the second quarter of this year after sharp declines in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the survey said. Growth is forecast to resume in the third quarter. The May consensus forecast from the economists saw second-quarter GDP contracting at a 1.7 percent annual rate, 0.4 percentage point better than was forecast a month ago. In April, the panelists forecast GDP would contract 2.6 percent in 2009 and grow 1.8 percent in 2010. "The past month provided fresh evidence the decline in business activity is starting to moderate, buttressing consensus expectations that the economy will emerge from recession in the second half of this year," the newsletter said.

- U.S. government protection of its financial industry encouraged excessive risk-taking at the heart of the current financial crisis and ought be rolled back, a top U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Monday. "The financial safety net, especially those parts that were more implicit and perceived than explicit and written into the laws, played a significant role in the accumulation of risks that ultimately led to the turmoil we are still experiencing," said Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker. "While deployment of the financial safety net is often viewed as an essential response to the financial crisis, I believe we need to give serious thought to the extent to which the safety net was actually a significant cause of the crisis," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference in Beijing.

- GMAC, the troubled automobile lender, may receive a $7.5 billion infusion from the U.S. government as early as next week, the Washington Post reported in its Saturday edition, citing unnamed sources. The funds for GMAC would come as part of an Obama administration package that aims to revive the nation's financial system even after it found that major banks need less financial aid than expected, the Post said.

- EU antitrust regulators are expected to say this week that Intel Corp illegally paid computer makers to postpone or cancel the launch of products containing chips made by its main rival, sources familiar with the case said on Sunday. The European Commission is set to decide on Wednesday to fine the world's largest chipmaker and order changes to its business practices for what the EU executive sees as "naked restrictions" to competition, the sources said. There was no indication of how big a fine might be levied. The largest fine levied by the EC for an abuse of market dominance was the 497 million euros ($655 million) demanded from Microsoft on March 24, 2004.

Financial Times:

- The hedge fund industry, infamous for imposing high fees, is finally beginning to cut these charges amid heavy outflows and investor complaints after a year of losses. Three hedge funds contacted by the Financial Times admitted to cutting their fees for new investors, usually by lowering management fees by half a percentage point to between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent, and performance fees from 20 per cent to 10 per cent. A few privileged investors have always been able to gain such favorable terms. However, what makes the current trend striking is that the number of special deals is proliferating fast. Chris Lombardy, an executive at Kinetics Partners, an industry consultant, said the fee cuts started when some funds halted redemptions during the financial crisis. “Some managers offered investors fee reductions in exchange for staying in,” he said.

- News Corp(NWS/A) is planning to introduce micro-payments for individual articles and premium subscriptions to the Wall Street Journal’s website this year, in a milestone in the news industry’s race to find better online business models. “A sophisticated micro-payments service” will launch this autumn, Robert Thomson, editor-in-chief of Dow Jones and managing editor of the Journal, told the Financial Times. The move will position the Journal as the first big newspaper title to adopt a model many are cautiously studying as they seek to reduce their dependence on plunging advertising revenues. Mr Thomson said the Journal saw an opportunity in its US metropolitan rivals’ weakness, adding: “We’re going to move in on each of the big cities.” It has begun marketing campaigns in cities such as Detroit and San Francisco, where local publications are struggling, having moved to broaden the title’s appeal by playing up local political and sports coverage on its website.

- Around a quarter of the City of London’s hedge funds could relocate overseas because of the new tax regime, a consultancy has predicted. David Butler, founding member of Kinetic Partners, the asset management consultancy, said that the new 50 per cent top rate of income tax was tipping many hedge fund managers over the edge. “My expectation is that about 25 per cent of hedge fund managers in the UK will move overseas,” he said.

- Wells Fargo(WFC), deemed to need $13.7bn of capital by the US government’s stress test last week, claims to have the earning power to fill its capital deficit by November and apply to repay “as soon as practical” $25bn of government funds. “We think we already have a lot of capital and, with our earnings, we are accumulating regulatory capital at a very high rate,” said Howard Atkins, chief financial officer. “Left to our own devices, we are hopeful we would be allowed to start paying back [the troubled asset relief program] soon.” bankers said US lenders had government assurances that they would be allowed to raise less than the $74.6bn in equity mandated by the stress tests if earnings in the next six months outstripped regulators’ forecasts. The agreement – not mentioned when the government revealed the results on Thursday – means some banks might not have to raise as much equity through share issues and asset sales as the market is expecting. It could also increase the incentive for banks to book profits in the next two quarters. The banks have 28 days to announce capital-raising plans and until November 9 to implement them. Wells Fargo and other banks that will have to raise capital said that if operating profits were greater than the stress-case forecast for the second and third quarters, they would receive credit for the difference. That would reduce the need to raise fresh equity.

- A period of high-level diplomacy on the Middle East opens in New York on Monday, promising further insights into an emerging strategy from Barack Obama’s administration that is already raising concerns among Israel’s supporters. A US official this week broke a long-standing taboo by referring to Israel’s nuclear weapons in a speech at the United Nations, and Joe Biden, vice-president, delivered a message to the biggest US pro-Israel lobby group that he warned they were “not going to like”. A clearer picture of administration policy will not emerge until after that round of meetings. However, Mr Biden set the tone last week when he told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) Israel had to work towards a two-state solution. He told the lobby group’s annual conference: “You’re not going to like my saying this, but [Israel should] not build more settlements, dismantle existing outposts, and allow the Palestinians freedom of movement…”

Globe and Mail:

- We asked Victor Tan, a fund analyst with Globe Investor, to pull out the 15 worst and 15 top performing hedge funds in 2008. (These funds are in the alternative strategies category.) We then looked at their returns for the first four months of this year. We excluded U.S. dollar, duplicate, and exchange-traded funds as well as those closed to new investors. WHAT DID WE FIND? A flip-flop of last year.

NBS:

- China April Producer Prices fell 6.6%. April Consumer Prices dropped 1.5%.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (BAC), (HDI), (TSN), (CPB), (HES) and (JPM).

- Made negative comments on (LEA), (JCI), (HANS) and (AXL).

Citigroup:

- Upgraded (AEO) to Buy, target $17.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.75% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.69%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.79%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ENER)/.00

- (KG)/.14

- (FLR)/.92

- (NUAN)/.22

- (DISH)/.56

- (MDR)/.30

- (AIPC)/.75

- (PCLN)/.92

- (ETP)/1.34

Upcoming Splits

- None of note

Economic Releases

- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Bernanke speaking on bank stress tests(CLH) shareholders meeting, (ABX) shareholders meeting and the (TIE) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.

There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – None of note

Tues. – Trade Balance, Monthly Budget Statement, weekly retail sales reports

Wed. – Weekly EIA energy inventory data, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Business Inventories, Advance Retail Sales, Import Price Index

Thur. – Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. – Consumer Price Index, Empire Manufacturing, Net Long-term TIC Flows, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Flour Corp(FLR), DISH Network(DISH), McDermott(MDR), priceline.com(PCLN)

Tues. – Warnaco Group(WRC), BMC Software(BMC), Applied Materials(AMAT)

Wed. – Tidewater(TDW), CA Inc.(CA), Jack in the Box(JACK), Whole Foods(WFMI), Macy’s(M)

Thur. – Wal-Mart(WMT), Urban Outfitters(URBN), Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), Agilent Technologies(A), Genentech(DNA), Compuware(CPWR), Nordstrom(JWN)

Fri. – JC Penney(JCP), Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – The Fed’s Bernanke speaking on bank stress tests(CLH) shareholders meeting, (ABX) shareholders meeting, (TIE) shareholders meeting

Tue. – The Fed’s Lockhart speaking, Fed’s Rosengren speaking, Bank of America Healthcare Conference, UBS Global Financial Services Conference, CSFB Basic Materials Conference, UBS Industrials Conference, (MMM) shareholders meeting, (PRU) shareholders meeting, CSFB Aerospace & Defense Conference, Merrill Pharma/Biotech/Medical Conference, (INTC) analyst meeting

Wed. – The Fed’s Lockhart speaking, Fed’s Plosser speaking, BMO Capital Ag/Protein/Fertilizer Conference, Bank of America Healthcare Conference, (IBM) Analyst Meeting, (MA) Investor Meeting, Robert Baird Growth Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference

Thur. – BMO Capital Ag/Protein/Fertilizer Conference, Goldman Consumer Conference, Bank of America Healthcare Conference, (F) Shareholders Meeting, Robert Baird Growth Stock Conference, CSFB Financials Conference

Fri. – The Fed’s Fisher speaking, (MFE) Investor Day, (M) Shareholders Meeting

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less credit market angst, declining economic fear, short covering and investment manager performance anxiety offsets higher energy prices and profit-taking. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 929.23 +5.89%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 929.23 +5.89%
DJIA 8,574.65 +4.41%
NASDAQ 1,739.0 +1.15%
Russell 2000 511.82 +5.10%
Wilshire 5000 9,424.44 +5.70%
Russell 1000 Growth 402.34 +3.21%
Russell 1000 Value 484.69 +8.72%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 560.76 +4.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 576.50 +8.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 419.49 -.77%
Transports 3,351.17 +6.31%
Utilities 350.46 +2.17%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31.30 +7.94%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 30,408 +10.56%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -66 -22.22%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.0 +8.57%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 175,443 +.65%
Total Put/Call .87 +12.99%
OEX Put/Call 1.73 +86.02%
ISE Sentiment 136.0 +4.62%
NYSE Arms .77 -38.88%
Volatility(VIX) 32.05 -9.21%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.26 -5.29%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,130.68 +.48%
AAII % Bulls 44.09 +22.17%
AAII % Bears 33.33 -23.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.60 +11.46%
Reformulated Gasoline 169.90 +12.42%
Natural Gas 4.34 +23.44%
Heating Oil 151.50 +10.19%
Gold 915.90 +3.14%
Base Metals 140.79 +6.21%
Copper 214.50 +1.54%
Agriculture 329.49 +2.76%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.29% +13 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 1.57% +17 basis points
TED Spread 77.0 -9 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 143.88 -12.61%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 389.57 -20.54%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +37.0 +102.19%
Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/24
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 57.38 +3.99%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 623,500 -2.3%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.84% +6 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 979,700 +1.99%
Weekly Retail Sales +.50%
Nationwide Gas $2.17/gallon +.12/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 19.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 109.30 +1.49%
US Dollar Index 82.53 -2.39%
Baltic Dry Index 2,194 +22.84%
CRB Index 243.23 +6.19%

Best Performing Style
Large-Cap Value +8.72%

Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +3.20%

Leading Sectors
Banks +36.13%
HMOs +19.19%
Insurance +16.70%
Gaming +14.20%
Construction +12.92%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.18%
Education -1.75%
Computer Hardware -2.31%
Software -2.52%
Semis -3.16%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher, Boosted by Financial, REIT, Homebuilding, Insurance, Defense and Commodity Shares

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In Play

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Diminishing Economic Fear, Lower Long-Term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Financial longs and Medical longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (ASEI) long this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 5.17% and is very high at 31.73. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 140.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .91. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.73 at its intraday peak, and is currently .80. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is dropping another 2.71% today to 119.17 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.77% to 143.88 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling another 1.50% to 77 basis points. The TED spread is now down 386 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 1.64% to 46.50 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 1.37% to 74 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 3 basis point to 1.57%, which is down 107 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .17%, which is unch. today. Given the run the financials had already had ahead of the stress test results, today’s 6.3% jump in the heavily-shorted (XLF) is even more impressive. Tech stocks are significantly underperforming the last few days as investor rotation into other formerly lagging sectors has intensified. If this tech underperformance were to persist it would become a red flag for the broad market. However, the fact that the broad market can move meaningfully higher as tech consolidates recent gains is a net positive right now. I suspect some of tech’s recent weakness is related to US dollar weakness, which should reverse over the coming weeks. The Citi US economic surprise index is now up to +37.0 versus +9.0 in the euro region. The S&P 500 is now +3.59% for the year. Investment manager performance anxiety is likely spiking right about now. It is also Nikkei futures indicate an +108 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +40 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear and lower long-term rates.