- Russian steelmakers’ plans for world domination are in tatters. A spending spree on U.S. mills meant to lift their billionaire owners into the industry’s top rank is instead forcing them to renegotiate debt and write down assets. OAO Severstal, the biggest producer, may sell some of the U.S. plants it bought for almost $4 billion at fire-sale prices or seek bankruptcy for them, Uralsib Financial Corp. analyst Dmitry Smolin said. Outstanding debt at Severstal and next- largest producer Evraz Group SA almost tripled after they ramped up buying in 2006, while the cost of funding debt in Russia has risen by about 50 percent, according to data Bloomberg compiled. “Russian steelmakers’ acquisitions in the U.S. were all unsuccessful,” said Dan Yakub, a Citigroup Inc. analyst in Moscow who recommends investors sell Evraz and who has a “hold” rating on Severstal. “The management wanted a global business, to get more flags on the map. They overestimated the potential of the U.S. market and underestimated the depth of the price collapse.”
- U.S. light-vehicle sales are beginning to show signs of improvement, according to an automobile market researcher that forecasts sales will jump 9.6% in 2010 to 11.2 million. R.L. Polk & Co., in raising its 2010 forecast by 400,000 vehicles, said the bottoming out of the housing market, expansion in manufacturing and improved consumer sentiment were signs the economic recovery was under way. "We are confident the worst is behind us, said Dave Goebel, a Polk consultant. "We also believe the 'cash for clunkers' program will have little to no impact on 2010 sales, because the overall economic outlook has improved since earlier this year and this serves auto makers well as they bring new models into their showrooms." A number of analysts, including Global Insight Data, have said auto sales, on track to hit the lowest levels in decades, will begin to recover next year.
- Democratic lawmakers in a handful of states are facing pressure from Republicans to distance themselves from the Service Employees International Union as a result of its ties to Acorn. Republicans in Kansas, Virginia and Illinois in recent weeks have called on union-backed Democrats to return SEIU campaign contributions, citing the close connection between the union and the community organizing group, whose full name is the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. The Virginia Republican Party urged Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds to return campaign contributions from the SEIU, one of the biggest financial backers of Democratic candidates. Mr. Deeds received a total of $200,000 from the SEIU in 2009, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, which tracks campaign contributions in the state. "The close, almost symbiotic, relationship that SEIU and Acorn have call into question the propriety of being so closely involved with this union," said Tim Murtaugh, spokesman for the Virginia GOP.
- Google Inc.(GOOG), which has long championed the belief that advertising should be less about art and more about science, is working harder to embrace its inner creative side. As it searches for new growth, the company has in recent months focused more on creating custom ad campaigns spanning multiple Google services for big spenders like Hewlett-Packard Co. and Ford Motor Co. Since the summer, Google has helped J.C. Penney Co. and PepsiCo Inc.'s Quaker Oats unit launch ad campaigns on YouTube and across the hundreds of thousands of sites across which Google sells display ads, along with search ads. As part of the shift, Google is thinking up and tailoring more ad campaigns in close consultation with ad agencies. In May, the Mountain View, Calif., Internet giant altered its sales structure to work more closely with ad agencies and react more quickly to trends by organizing sales staff by industry, like automotive and technology. It also created a senior position responsible for improving communication with the largest ad agencies.
- The Obama administration is expected on Tuesday to unveil an outline of sweeping changes for the nation's immigration-detention system, saying it will decide whom to lock up and for how long based on the danger and flight risk posed by detainees. Officials familiar with the report said the administration is pledging to revise detention standards and will turn to the private sector for ideas, asking for proposals to construct two model facilities. Until now, the Obama administration has been reluctant to revise detention standards, which were updated late in the administration of former President George W. Bush. The immigration detention system expanded dramatically during the Bush years as the government took a much tougher line against illegal immigrants. The moves come in response to criticisms of the system over issues including the quality of medical treatment given to detainees and their inability to access basic services, such as phones to speak with lawyers.
MarketWatch.com: - The Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday surprised by raising its policy rate by a quarter-point to 3.25% in response to stronger-than-expected economic conditions. The increase in the cash rate marks the RBA's first rate increase since March 2008 and makes it the first central bank in a major developed economy to hike rates. Several analysts had expected the RBA to commence rate hikes a few months later. Governor Glenn Stevens wrote in a statement that the "basis for such a low interest rate setting has now passed" and that it was now prudent to "begin gradually lessening the stimulus provided by monetary policy."
- Americans may be wary of the eye-popping figures the federal government paid out in an effort to keep the recession from freefalling into a depression. But in the context of health reform, close to a trillion dollars may not be strong enough medicine over the next decade to extend coverage to the uninsured and make health insurance affordable for people who soon may be required to have it, some experts say. Karen Pollitz, project director of the Georgetown University Health Policy Institute, said she understands a feeling of "trillion-dollar fatigue" in the wake of the financial bail-out and stimulus package aimed at reviving a moribund economy. At the same time, the goals of health reform can't be met with $1 trillion, she said. "All the bills that are on the table are too small. Everybody's kind of in the ball park of a trillion dollars. That's what the Clinton plan cost 15 years ago," she said of the last attempt at comprehensive reform in 1994, when per-person health-care spending was about half of the $7,300 it is today and the U.S. had 38 million uninsured compared with today's 46 million.
- Will Wall Street Bet on Your Life?After Dr. Eddie Powell lost both his legs to a hospital infection, he desperately needed financial help to support his practice and three children in medical school. So the 61-year-old did what more and more cash-strapped Baby Boomers are doing these days: He sold his life insurance. "For close to a million dollars of insurance, I got a hundred and some thousand dollars," Powell said. Coventry, a life settlement company, took Powell's policies, bundled them with others and sold them to banks or hedge funds as investments. Since they pay the premium every month, the sooner he dies the more money they will make. And now, Wall Street wants in on the action and the life settlement industry welcomes the potential spike in business. For critics, the move to securitize the life insurance industry harkens back to the early days of the subprime mortgage boom. That crisis began when banks gave loans to people who couldn't afford them, but it got much worse when Wall Street used exotic forms of investments (called collateralized debt obligations) to bet that those loans would go bad. With Wall Street's trillions in play, banks had more incentive to issue more subprime loans. When those loans went bad, the investors got rich but the housing market -- and the entire economy -- nearly collapsed. If Wall Street is allowed to bet on the early death of seniors or the terminally ill, some worry it could not only strain the insurance industry, but also create a market for shady brokers to prey on the sick and elderly while adversely affecting the health policy of the nation. "People who have bets on early death will find themselves lobbying against effective health care," said Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor and former director with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "There's no two ways about it, this is an accident waiting to happen in terms of investment…. It's setting up the same wild financial infrastructure that turns out to be nothing more than a casino, unrelated to the underlying transaction." As for Dr. Powell, he says he regrets his decision to sell his life insurance for pennies on the dollar. "I made a stupid mistake," he said. Every few months, a representative from Coventry calls to see if he is still breathing. He plans to keep answering for a long time. "My grandma lived to be 115…you've got a long time before Eddie Powell dies," he said. But if Coventry gets its way, there will soon be plenty of investors on Wall Street hoping, and betting, he is wrong.
- North Korea is in the final stages of restoring facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying on Tuesday. "We have obtained indications that point to restoration work being in the final stages," the unnamed South Korean government source was quoted as saying. "The work to restore nuclear facilities at Yongbyon has been ongoing since early this year."
North Korea had walked away from a deal to end its nuclear programme citing what it called U.S. intentions to attack it but its leader Kim Jong-il said this week his country was willing to return to dialogue.
- Citigroup(C) is moving further away from its 11-year focus on marrying brokerage and banking by outsourcing some investment services offered to US branch customers to outside advisers and shifting up to 550 employees to new roles. The move in Citi’s wealth management business, which manages about $30bn on behalf of customers, underlines the desire by the troubled bank to focus on larger businesses and overhaul its strategy in the low-growth US retail banking market. Under the new plan - which was announced on Monday - Citi will begin referring some wealthy customers who currently deal with 550 brokers based in some of its 1,000-plus branches to independent financial advisers. Under the new strategy, Citi will receive a referral fee for each customer they direct to an independent adviser. Citi will also retrain some of its existing brokers to be part of internal teams of fee-based financial consultants as well as helping customers to choose between internal and external advisers. The changes - to be implemented next year - will have practical implications for Citi’s customers. Financial advisers levy fees based on the assets held by each customer while brokers charge commissions depending on the number and value of trades they execute and products they sell. Citi plans to eliminate all commission-based compensation by 2011.
- In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars. The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.
Globe and Mail:
- BCE Inc.'s Bell Canada and Telus Corp. will begin selling the iPhone next month, breaking the stranglehold on the iconic device that rival Rogers Communications Inc. has held for more than a year. The country's two largest incumbent telecom companies, under pressure to re-ignite growth as new wireless competitors begin operations this year, are banking on Apple Inc.'s ground-breaking smart phone to help them sign up bigger-spending customers and shift the balance of power in Canada's mobile market. Bell announced Monday that it will launch national service in November on the $1-billion next-generation wireless network it has been building with Telus, months ahead of schedule. The project extends the two companies' existing third-generation (3G) networks to include the same technology standard employed by Rogers, the nation's largest cellphone company.
Commercial Times:
- Acer Inc. expects is fourth-quarter consolidated revenue to rise 10% from the third quarter on a recovery in the economy and demand spurred by the Microsoft Corp. Windows 7 Operating System, citing company Chairman J.T. Wang. With rising demand for laptops, there are also component shortages in graphic card chips, flat panels and hard drives, citing Wang.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - (PBG)/1.07
- (CHTT)/1.21
- (YUM)/.58
Economic Releases
- None of note
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers - The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Treasury’s 3-year Note Auction, weekly retail sales reports, William Blair Emerging Growth Stock Conference, ABC Consumer Confidence reading, (RHT) analyst meeting, (VQ) analyst day, (IRM) investor day, JMP Securities Healthcare Conference, (OKE) investor conference, Deutsche Bank Energy Conference and the Johnson Rice Energy Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is around average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 7.11% and is high at 26.65. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 115.0 and the total put/call is around average at .80. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day, hitting .50 at its intraday trough, and is currently .60. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.45% today to 74.16 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -6.61% to 102.53 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is unch. at 34.75 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 1.73%, which is down 94 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .09%, which is unch. today.The S&P 500 found meaningful technical support right at its 50-day moving average.The MS Cyclical Index is substantially outperforming today, jumping +3.11%.Gaming, REIT, Hospital, Bank, Disk Drive, Steel, Gold and Coal shares are especially strong, rising +2.75%+.The big decline in the North American Inv. Grd. CDS Index is a large positive.As well, the (XLF) trades very well, surging +3.22% to session highs.I suspect we will see strength in Asia and Europe materialize before the US opening bell tomorrow, which could lead to further gains here.Nikkei futures indicate an +121 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +35 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear, technical buying and bargain-hunting.
- A measure of U.S. job prospects rose in September for the first time in more than a year, a sign job losses may not keep accelerating, a private survey showed. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose 0.3 to 88.5, the first increase since January 2008 and the highest level since April, the New York-based private research group said today. The reading was down 16 percent from a year ago.
- Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside summer getaway for celebrities and Wall Street financiers, climbed 12 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier on an increase in high-end sales. The median price rose to $840,000 across the 15 villages and hamlets that make up the East End of Long Island, according to a report by the Corcoran Group, a New York-based property broker with offices in the Hamptons. The median for luxury homes, defined as the top 10 percent by price, jumped 23 percent to $5.9 million. “We usually see Wall Street bonus money stepping up to the plate in the second quarter,” said Rick Hoffman, a Bridgehampton-based senior vice president for Corcoran. “Some of it may have stepped up in the third quarter as people realized this is a buying opportunity.”
- The cost to protect against defaults on U.S. corporate bonds fell for the second day as a report showed the nation’s service industries expanded last month for the first time in a year. Credit default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment- Grade Index Series 13, which is linked to 125 companies with investment-grade credit ratings and used to speculate on creditworthiness, fell 4.5 basis points to 102 basis points as of 11:57 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The Markit CDX index has declined 13 basis points after climbing to an almost one-month high of 115 basis points in intraday trading on Oct. 2, Phoenix prices show.
- Investors are snapping up commodities at the fastest pace in 18 months just as stockpiles of raw materials rise and shipping rates plunge, signaling that prices may be poised to fall. Open interest, or contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered, rose 6.6 percent in the third quarter for the 20 most-traded U.S. commodities, exchange data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the steepest gain since the first three months of 2008, just before the credit-market freeze sent prices plunging from records. While the U.S. economy shows signs of bottoming after the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, supplies of raw materials are growing faster than demand. Oil inventories rose 15 percent in the past year, Energy Department figures show. The Baltic Dry Index, a barometer for raw-material demand, slid 41 percent in the third quarter. “We’ve been moving out of our commodity holdings and into cash,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $13.8 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted last year’s price declines. “People got so excited about growth coming back, but now no one is quite sure what the traction of the recovery will be.” A “protracted global slowdown” may mean the 90 percent surge in copper prices and oil’s 57 percent gain in 2009 was a “short boom,” the International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 1. Philip Verleger, the University of Calgary economist who correctly forecast in 2007 that oil would reach $100 a barrel, now says crude will fall below $40 by year-end. Copper may average 22 percent less this quarter than last, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, after monthly shipments of refined copper into China, the world’s biggest user, tumbled 25 percent in August. Investors poured $10.2 billion into commodity funds this year, a six-fold increase from a year earlier, according to researcher EPFR Global in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Investors turned the most bearish on the dollar in 18 months in September as signs of a worldwide economic recovery reduced demand for the currency as a refuge, according to 583 respondents in the Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index. Forward rates indicate the dollar will be little changed in six months. Warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange held 34 percent more copper on Oct. 2 than on July 14, when supplies reached a 2009 low. Inventories rose to 346,050 tons on Oct. 1, the highest since May 20. Stockpiles measured by the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a five-year high last month. In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, the IMF said commodities gains similar to those of late 2007 and the first half of 2008 may be delayed for years.
- China plans to spend billions of dollars in the next few years to develop media and entertainment companies that it hopes can compete with global giants like the News Corporation(NWS/A) and Time Warner(TWX), and will in the process loosen some of its tight control of these industries. An ambitious plan, set forth in guidelines last week by China’s State Council, envisions the creation of entertainment, news and culture companies with a market orientation and with less government backing. China, in short, would like to consolidate its industry into companies resembling Bloomberg, Time Warner and Viacom, analysts say. “There appears to be a feeling at the highest levels of government that they need a media machine commensurate to the rising status and power of China,” says Jim Laurie, a former ABC News correspondent who teaches at Hong Kong University and recently met with Chinese state broadcasting executives. Beijing hopes the moves will even improve the nation’s image overseas — part of a longstanding effort to use “soft power,” rather than military might to win friends abroad. Along the way, Beijing will allow private and foreign companies to invest in everything from music, film and television to theater, dance and opera productions — though largely through state-owned companies.
- The nation's governors are emerging as a formidable lobbying force as health-care reform moves through Congress and states overburdened by the recession brace for the daunting prospect of providing coverage to millions of low-income residents. The legislation the Senate Finance Committee is expected to approve this week calls for the biggest expansion of Medicaid since its creation in 1965. Under the Senate bill and a similar House proposal, a patchwork state-federal insurance program targeted mainly at children, pregnant women and disabled people would effectively become a Medicare for the poor, a health-care safety net for all people with an annual income below $14,404. Whether Medicaid can absorb a huge influx of beneficiaries is a matter of grave concern to many governors, who have cut low-income health benefits -- along with school funding, prison construction, state jobs and just about everything else -- to cope with the most severe economic downturn in decades. "I can't think of a worse time for this bill to be coming," said Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), a member of the National Governors Association's health-care task force. "I'd love to see it happen. But nobody's going to put their state into bankruptcy or their education system in the tank for it."
-The president of Somalia on Sunday denounced the recruiting of young men from Minnesota's huge Somali community for terrorist activity in his war-ravaged homeland, and said he plans to work with the U.S. government to bring those still alive back home. President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed spoke with The Associated Press while visiting the Minneapolis area, where authorities believe as many as 20 young Somali men — possibly recruited by a vision of jihad to fight — returned to the impoverished nation over the last two years. At least three have died in Somalia, including one who authorities believe was the first American suicide bomber. Three others have pleaded guilty in the U.S. to terror-related charges.
- Demand for LED chips is set to outpace supply growth in 2010 due to the increasing penetration rates of LED TVs and LED notebooks, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Demand for LED chips from the LED TV segment is likely to top 1.2 billion units a month based on a projection of global shipments of 15 million LED TVs, or 10% of the global shipments of flat-panel TVs in 2009, the sources estimated. Some branded TV vendors have even predicted that global shipments of LED TVs in 2009 may reach as high as 30 million units, further pushing up demand for LED chips, the sources added. Meanwhile, the penetration rate of LED notebooks in the entire notebook segment is also expected to climb to 80% in 2010, from 50% in 2009, said the sources. The shortage of LED chips is unlikely to wane until 2012.