BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 3.50% and is high at 24.80. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 158.0 and the total put/call is around average at .78. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.36 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.21. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +7.42% today to 74.67 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.46% to 105.01 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is up 1 basis point to 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is +2.81% to 34.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -1 basis point to 1.75%, which is down 92 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is down 2 basis points today. A number of market leading stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market today.Education, HMO, Hospital, Bank, Networking, Internet and Oil Service shares are especially strong, rising .75%+. Considering recent supply, the fall in long-term rates is a big positive and should continue to assist in a housing recovery. (XLF) has been trading well throughout the day, despite numerous scary commercial real estate stories over the last 24 hours.Oil continues to trade poorly, as it has since June, despite numerous potential upside catalysts.One of my longs, (GOOG), is breaking out to a new 52-week high today on volume.I still see significant upside in (GOOG) over both the short and long-run.It is highly unlikely we will see a meaningful broad market decline imminently with several key stocks breaking out.Nikkei futures indicate a -49 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, technical buying, lower energy prices, falling long-term rates and bargain-hunting.
- Mortgage applications in the U.S. rose last week to the highest level since May as near record- low borrowing costs boosted refinancing and sent purchases to a 10-month high. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan jumped 16 percent to 756.3 in the week ended Oct. 2 from 649.6 in the prior week. The group’s gauge of refinancing surged 18 percent and its measure of purchases climbed 13 percent.
- Valentino Fashion Group SpA’s sales in the U.S. and western Europe stabilized in September after months of decline, while demand in China and Hong Kong has surged, Chief Executive Officer Stefano Sassi said. The Italian luxury brand, owned by London-based buyout firm Permira Advisers LLP, doesn’t expect demand in developed markets to return to pre-credit crunch levels “for a few months at least,” Sassi said after Valentino’s fashion show in Paris yesterday evening.
- U.S. Representative Barney Frank’s proposed overhaul of derivatives regulation may leave gaps in oversight and unnecessary exemptions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission said. “Certain aspects of the discussion draft could unintentionally preserve existing regulatory gaps,” Henry T.C. Hu, director of the SEC’s new division of risk, strategy and financial innovation, said of legislation proposed Oct. 2 by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Frank. The draft would ease trading and clearing requirements for derivatives dealers such as Morgan Stanley(MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), compared with the administration’s proposal.
- Crude oil fell for the first time in three days in New York after a U.S. Energy Department report showed that inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased. Gasoline supplies rose 2.94 million barrels to 214.4 million last week, almost three times the gain forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Distillate stockpiles climbed 679,000 barrels to 171.8 million, the highest since January 1983. Oil also dropped as the rising dollar reduced the appeal of energy to investors looking for an inflation hedge. “This is a very bearish report,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The product builds are significant and increase the cushion against any disruption. It takes uncertainty about refiners out of the equation.” The gain in gasoline supplies left stockpiles 6.9 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, according to the department. Distillate inventories are 30 percent above the five-year average for the week. Gasoline production climbed 3.5 percent to 9.42 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 2, the highest level since August 2008. Refineries operated at 85 percent of capacity last week, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous week. “Fundamentals are still weak,” BNP Paribas SA senior oil analyst Harry Tchilinguirian said in an interview with Bloomberg radio. “This year is going to end with a contraction in global demand. There have been positive supply surprises in places outside OPEC like Russia, and OPEC’s own compliance has slipped.” Nations outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase crude oil and other liquids production by 0.7 percent to 50.04 million barrels a day this year, as increased output in Brazil, the U.S., Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Canada offsets declines in Mexico and the North Sea, according the Energy Department’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released yesterday.
- Crude oil remains in a downtrend and will face multiple layers of resistance before any approach toward a September high of more than $73 a barrel, according to Societe Generale.Should prices break below $69.40 a barrel, “the correction will resume” to $67.50 and $66.20, Aymes said.
- Retailers on EBay.com Inc.’s(EBAY) site had sales gains in August and September, the first increases since at least July 2008, according to ChannelAdvisor Corp., which helps merchants sell on EBay, Amazon.com and other sites. Same-store sales, or revenue for merchants selling for at least one year on EBay, gained 4.6% in August and 5.1% in September.Sales had declined every month since ChannelAdvisor started tracking its merchants on EBay 14 months ago. Analysts estimate that EBay’s sales rose less than 1% to $2.13 billion in the third quarter from a year earlier.
- Stocks are worth buying worldwide as a rebound in earnings ends a “Twilight Zone” of rising share prices and falling profits, according to Robert Buckland, a Citigroup Inc. global strategist. Although the MSCI World Index’s P/E ratio has increased to 24 times earnings from 9 times in March, it’s below the peaks in three previous profit slumps since 1989.The gauge reached 28 times to 33 times earnings as those periods ended.At 1.8 times book value, this ratio is lower than the average of 2.1 times since 1975.
Wall Street Journal:
- Demand for Long Term Evolution, or LTE, network equipment is likely to accelerate due to a continually strong need for fast data transfer, said Hakan Eriksson, Chief Technology Officer of L.M. Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERIC). "It's difficult to predict the pace of LTE implementation, but the new technology will become the industry standard," Eriksson told Dow Jones Newswires during an interview on the sidelines of the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) Telecom World conference here. First roll-out of LTE networks will start in 2010, Eriksson said.
- Democrats defeated an effort by Republicans to remove Rep. Charlie Rangel from his chairmanship of the influential Ways and Means Committee amid a congressional ethics investigation. Democrats blocked the anti-Rangel effort on a procedural motion that would have forced the New York Democrat to step down. The House later voted by a wide margin to refer the matter to the House Ethics Committee, a technical move given that the committee is already reviewing allegations of ethical lapses by Mr. Rangel. But in what could be the first signs of the weakening of support for Mr. Rangel among Democrats, two Democratic lawmakers broke with their party and voted with Republicans on the vote. The vote was the third time since July 2008 that the House has voted on a measure by Republicans to remove Mr. Rangel. This was the first time that any Democrat had voted with Republicans.
- As the search wars continue, new numbers are in showing that Microsoft's(MSFT) Bing slipped while Google(GOOG) inched further ahead last month. Google's search accounted for 71.08% of all U.S. searches conducted between September and October, said the Internet monitoring firm Hitwise. That's a 1% market share increase for Google, Hitwise reported late on Tuesday. Google's latest search rival, Bing, didn't have as good a month, though. Unveiled in June, Bing slipped 5%, going from 9.48% in September to 8.96% of the market early in October. Holding in second place, Yahoo Search dropped 3%, going from 16.96% to 16.38%.
Politico:
- Like most Americans, members of the House are expected to report promptly — no excuses — when summoned by their bosses for the start of another workweek. One difference: For lawmakers, starting time doesn’t come until about 6:30 Tuesday evening. After taking control of the House in 2006 — and again when President Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 — Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) boasted that lawmakers would work four or five days a week to bring change to America. But midway through Obama’s first year in office, Hoyer’s House has settled into a more leisurely routine. Members usually arrive for the first vote of the week as the sun sets on Tuesdays, and they’re usually headed back home before it goes down again on Thursdays. Since the House returned for its fall session on Sept. 8, it has stuck around to vote on a Friday just once: to approve a 5.8 percent increase in Congress’s own budget.
- The Obama administration's latest effort to boost the beleaguered housing market is likely to help mortgage insurers as lower defaults will boost their liquidity. The new program aims to provide as much as $35 billion to state housing finance agencies, which provide low-cost mortgages to potential homebuyers with low to moderate incomes. As part of the program, government-controlled housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, together with the U.S. Treasury, will buy as much as $20 billion of bonds issued by the housing finance agencies. The efforts of the U.S. government to reduce defaults and let homeowners keep their homes will help entities like MGIC Investment Corp (MTG), Radian Group Inc (RDN) and PMI Group Inc (PMI) to lower the claims that they pay out on defaults.
- Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) will be the manufacturing partner for an upcoming tablet PC device from Apple, according to market sources. The device is expected to hit the market in the first quarter of 2010, with initial shipments from Foxconn being in the 300,000-400,000 range, the sources said. The device will have a 10.6-inch display, and the sources speculated that perhaps Foxconn could secure panels from its subsidiary Innolux Display. The sources indicated they believe the tablet PC features will focus more on e-book functionality rather than music, and that based on Apple's marketing strategy, long battery life, quick Internet connectivity and an easy-to-use user interface will be key features of the device.