Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Intel Corp.(INTC), the world’s biggest chipmaker, forecast sales and profitability that topped estimates, indicating that computer demand is returning to pre- recession levels. The shares jumped as much as 6.9 percent. For the fourth quarter, Intel forecast sales of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion, compared with the $9.5 billion average estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

- Paulson & Co., the hedge fund that bet against subprime mortgages before the housing crisis, agreed to increase its stake in life insurer Conseco Inc.(CNO) by buying $77.9 million in stock and warrants.78 at 5:41 p.m. in late New York trading. Paulson will own 9.9 percent of the common stock after the private share sale, the Carmel, Indiana-based insurer said in a statement. Paulson’s warrants will also convert to common stock at $6.50 a share. Conseco rose 79 cents, or 16 percent, to $5.

- Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, predicts demand will weaken and producers will restart mines closed during the economic crisis last year. Global output will exceed worldwide demand this year and next, Codelco Executive President and Chief Executive Officer Jose Pablo Arellano saidLondon. Demand will be “not that strong” compared with previous quarters, he said. Rising prices for the metal used in plumbing and wiring will prompt companies to restart shuttered mines and attract more scrap metal to the marketplace, he said. World copper production will exceed demand by 370,000 metric tons this year, because of fewer purchases of the metal outside of China, said the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group, which is financed by producers. The surplus may widen to 540,000 tons next year, the ICSG said. “We are not going back to the prices of the ‘80s and ‘90s,” Arellano said. Prices on the London Metal Exchange averaged $2,241 a metric ton during the 1990s, less than half the average price for the past five years. today in an interview in

- McGraw-Hill Cos.(MHP), the textbook publisher and owner of the Standard & Poor’s ratings unit, agreed to sell BusinessWeek to Bloomberg LP. The acquisition will strengthen online, television and mobile products, Bloomberg Chairman Peter Grauer said today in a statement. The purchase includes the print magazine and the BusinessWeek.com Web site. Terms weren’t disclosed. The transaction is scheduled to close Dec. 1, Bloomberg President Daniel Doctoroff said in an interview.

- Japan’s producer prices fell for a ninth month as oil traded lower than last year’s levels and demand for materials waned. The costs companies pay for energy and unfinished goods declined 7.9 percent in September from a year earlier after sliding a record 8.5 percent, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo.

- China’s exports declined at the slowest pace in nine months, helping government efforts to sustain the recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy. Shipments dropped 15.2 percent in September from a year earlier, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. That compared with a 23.4 percent slide in August. Imports fell 3.5 percent last month from a year earlier.

- China, the world’s largest steel producer, is working on plans to curb excess capacity as the nation faces “severe oversupply,” according to the nation’s third-largest mill.

Wall Street Journal:

- The Senate Finance Committee advanced President Barack Obama's health-care agenda Tuesday, with a lone Republican vote helping centrist Democrats set a benchmark for the final stage of congressional negotiations. The committee voted 14-9 in favor of a 10-year, $829 billion package, with Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine joining the panel's 13 Democrats -- the first time a Republican backed any of the Democrat-led health-care bills in circulation.

- With U.S. debt set to exceed 100% of GDP in 2011, it's no wonder people are looking for alternative ways to preserve wealth. Unprecedented spending, unending fiscal deficits, unconscionable accumulations of government debt: These are the trends that are shaping America's financial future. And since loose monetary policy and a weak U.S. dollar are part of the mix, apparently, it's no wonder people around the world are searching for an alternative form of money in which to calculate and preserve their own wealth. It may be too soon to dismiss the dollar as an utterly debauched currency. It still is the most used for international transactions and constitutes over 60% of other countries' official foreign-exchange reserves. But the reputation of our nation's money is being severely compromised.

- A public clash over proposals for financial-services regulation is intensifying between the White House and the nation's largest business lobby as a House committee begins considering legislation Wednesday. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday rejected a new version of an Obama administration proposal to create a federal regulator for consumer financial products. The House Financial Services Committee begins considering legislation Wednesday to create the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency, the first step in enacting the administration's proposed overhaul.

- Senior U.S. airport executives said Tuesday that financial pressures will likely expedite moves to privatize the management of publicly owned facilities. Airports across the country face declining revenue as airlines cut service, particularly to small- and medium-sized cities, in the wake of a broad business slowdown and industry losses.

- A former Citadel Investment Group senior manager is launching a new hedge fund with three other ex-employees of the Chicago firm, a move that reunites a veteran trading team and adds to an expanding field of startups. Ervin Shindell is starting a Chicago-based firm called RoundKeep Capital Advisors with investment managers Joseph Rotter, Robert Doherty and Robert Donath, each of whom spent between five and 10 years at Citadel, according to a marketing document for the new firm reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

- Major U.S. banks and securities firms are on pace to pay their employees about $140 billion this year -- a record high that shows compensation is rebounding despite regulatory scrutiny of Wall Street's pay culture. Workers at 23 top investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers and stock and commodities exchanges can expect to earn even more than they did in 2007, according to an analysis of securities filings for the first half of 2009 and revenue estimates through year end by The Wall Street Journal.

CNBC.com:
- Hedge funds have rallied from last year's stunning losses, yet hundreds of managers remain deep in the hole and face some tough decisions in the coming weeks. Credit Suisse research determined that about 45 percent of the funds we looked at were at or above their high water marks going into September. Another 20 percent were down by 10 percent, or within striking distance in a reasonable period. But a quarter of all funds were 20 to 30 percent down. At the low end of that range managers needed to rally 43 percent just to break even.

NY Times:

- Saudi Arabia is trying to enlist other oil-producing countries to support a provocative idea: if wealthy countries reduce their oil consumption to combat global warming, they should pay compensation to oil producers. The oil-rich kingdom has pushed this position for years in earlier climate-treaty negotiations. While it has not succeeded, its efforts have sometimes delayed or disrupted discussions. The kingdom is once again gearing up to take a hard line on the issue at international negotiations scheduled for Copenhagen in December. The chief Saudi negotiator, Mohammad al-Sabban, described the position as a “make or break” provision for the Saudis, as nations stake out their stance ahead of the global climate summit scheduled for the end of the year. “Assisting us as oil-exporting countries in achieving economic diversification is very crucial for us through foreign direct investments, technology transfer, insurance and funding,” Mr. Sabban said in an e-mail message.

IBD:

- So what are K-Cups? And how is it that they have propelled shares of Diedrich Coffee (DDRX) from a close at 31 cents on March 16 to a recent price of nearly 25 a share? K-Cups are single-serve packets of coffee designed for Keurig single-cup coffee brewers. The brewers are made by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) of Waterbury, Vt. Irvine, Calif.-based Diedrich is one of four Green Mountain licensees that make the disposable K-Cups for the brewers.

CNNMoney.com:

- Best Jobs in America: Top 10 for job growth.

Politico:

- The Senate appears ready to drop about $20 billion for two pieces of economic stimulus that no one wants to label “stimulus,” in the form of additional jobless benefits for unemployed workers and an extended, expanded tax credit for homebuyers.

- A major Senate climate change bill is written and ready to be debated before the Environment and Public Works committee, the chairwoman of the panel said Tuesday. Sen. Barbara Boxer’s legislation would distribution of tens of billions of dollars of pollution allowances to power plants, manufacturing, and other industries. It will mirror cap and trade legislation passed by the House in late June with, she noted, “a few tweaks.” The legislation has been sent to the Environmental Protection Agency for analysis, which should be completed by the end of the month.

- Without committing himself to specific troop increases, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel Inouye returned Tuesday from Afghanistan, seeming to fully embrace Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s counterinsurgency strategy that would demand more American resources and manpower. “I believe Gen. McChrystal’s assessment of the current situation and his conclusions, including his assessment that coalition forces must have more daily contact with the people of Afghanistan, is correct,” said the Hawaii Democrat, “and is what is needed if we are to achieve security and stability in Afghanistan."

zerohedge:

- Zero Hedge is starting to run a series of profiles of one of the most influential living people in the world. The man in question is former Secretary of the Treasury, and the man who made Goldman Sachs into the hedge fund quasar and uber-prop trading desk (rhymes with Hedge Fund Tsar, a position Barack Obama may or may not be contemplating) that it is now, Robert Rubin. Rubin redefined the term risk arbitrage (or as some would say, riskless arbitrage, thanks to the helpful nudge here and there of whoever may have been in a position of "puppet" power at any given moment) by being among the first to discover (and definitely the first to repeatedly bet the farm, making boatloads when successful, and somehow not losing when not) the amazing synergies provided by Goldman Sachs' numerous relationships as they may pertain to the firm acting in proprietary trading capacity. If one were to claim that Goldman Sachs is a cephalopod of some nature, than Robert Rubin is the beating heart (and soul) of such an animal. A mere listing of the people the were Rubin's proteges while at Goldman should be enough to send shivers up the spine of any University of Chicago efficient market hypothesis fan. The names of Rubin's most well-known underlings include (and this is not a comprehensive list):

The Business Insider:

- Chart Of The Day: The Government Debt Explosion.

- We suspect we're merely at the beginning of a big avalanche of lawsuits against leveraged and short ETFs, which aren't designed to be bought and held. The SEC may be slow on regulating these, but there's no reason for money-hungry lawyers to wait. The following was launched by Bernstein Libhard today against UYG.

USA Today.com:

- Demand for oil in richer countries has probably peaked and won't exceed pre-recession levels, given high rates of vehicle ownership in those countries, improving mileage standards and new technologies.China, says a report from IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. While IHS doesn't forecast the end of the oil age for the U.S. or other developed countries, it shows that "the long-term growth pattern" for increased oil demand in those countries "appears to be over," says Aaron Brady, IHS research director. "Our economy will be less oil-intensive over time. And so oil price spikes, while you can't discount them, will be less dangerous to the economy," he says. But global demand for oil will expand — up almost 14% from 2010 through 2020 — largely because of developing countries, including

UPI:

- A French anti-terrorism judge says there's evidence an atomic research scientist has been in contact with a North African group with links to al-Qaida. Judge Christophe Teissier of the French government's anti-terrorist branch has charged Adlene Hicheur, 32, a French scientist of Algerian origin, with maintaining Internet contacts with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, The Times of London reported Tuesday.

Reuters:

- New investors swoop on battered US housing market.

Financial Times:

- AIG’s(AIG) “retention bonuses” went to hundreds of employees in the insurer’s troubled financial products unit, including a kitchen assistant who received $7,700 in March, a US government report will reveal on Wednesday. News that support staff shared $168m-plus (£105m-plus) worth of retention awards could undermine AIG’s insistence the bonuses were needed to persuade key employees to stay on and unwind the derivatives trades that almost brought down the insurer last year. The report, by Neil Barofsky, special inspector-general for the US government’s $700bn troubled assets relief programme, could reignite political controversy over pay at the sate- controlled insurer. Employees of AIG’s financial products unit were scheduled to receive another $198m in retention awards in March next year. Mr Barofsky said about 400 employees of AIG’s Financial Products arm shared the more than $168m in retention awards in December 2008 and March 2009, after AIG had been bailed out with hundred of billions of dollars in taxpayer funds. The recipients included the kitchen assistant, who was handed a cash retention bonus of $7,700, and a “file administrator”, who received $700, as well as more senior executives who were paid bonuses of up to $4m. “It is odd for a kitchen assistant to receive a retention award,” said Charles Elson, a corporate governance professor at the University of Delaware. “If everyone receives a retention bonus, it makes you wonder what the point of the program is.”

- Iraq has given a consortium led by Eni, the Italian oil group, the right to develop its giant Zubair field, in a deal that signals the country’s desire to attract more of the world’s biggest oil companies 40 years after nationalizing its oil industry. Tuesday’s breakthrough, which needs cabinet approval, came after Iraq sweetened its terms following the failure of a June auction. It could lead to further foreign investment in a country with the world’s third-largest oil reserves. As part of the agreement, the Iraqi government told the Eni consortium to drop Sinopec, the Chinese state-owned oil company, as a partner. Baghdad has vowed to block Sinopec from its oil resources because of its entry into Kurdistan, the oil-rich semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq.

EFE:
- The Alba bloc of South American nations, led by Venezuela and its president, Hugo Chavez, plans to approve a new currency this week to replace the US dollar in trade, citing Huascar Ajata, Bolivia’s vice minister of exports. Ajata said the currency, call the sucre, will at first be used for international transactions and may eventually become a common currency like the European Union’s euro. Finance ministers from across the bloc, which also includes Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua, will meet Oct. 16 in Cochabamba, Bolivia, to approve the measure. Members are also planning cooperation in military training and other areas.

The Economic Times:

- MUMBAI: There is a dire need to revive the country's export sector as falling exports not only hamper India's growth directly, but also affect a large population dependent on labor-intensive export units, Credit Analysis & Research Ltd (CARE) said in its Eco Alert report here. Exports have shown a declining trend since October 2008, accompanied by downturn in import mainly due to lower oil import bill. Trade balance deficit, as a result narrowed to $25.98-billion during Q1 FY 10 compared to $314- billion during Q1 FY 09. Despite of net invisibles surplus of $20.2-billion, India's current account deficit stood at $5.8-billion for Q1 FY 10, the report said. India's export continued to taper for the eleventh consecutive month.

- NEW DELHI: A surge in imports of low-priced steel from China has India’s steel manufacturers, among the most profitable in the world, up in arms demanding protectionist measures. Steel imports jumped 9% to 8,000,000 tons in August from the year-ago period, showed data published by the steel ministry. Steel prices in China, the largest producer and consumer of steel, have tumbled by a fifth to around $500/ton level at the end of September from their August peak, making cheaper imports replacing Indian products a possibility.

Economic Daily News:

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. aims for 2010 revenue to rise by at least 20%.

Arabianbusiness.com:

- Rental values for apartments in Dubai continued to fall faster than in any other part of the UAE during the third quarter of 2009, new research has showed. Three-bed homes were worst hit as they plummeted 13 percent between July and September, a report by property services company Asteco said. Average prices for the largest apartments fell to AED139,000 compared to average prices of AED173,000 in Abu Dhabi for the same type of property. The rent fell by just one percent in Q3 in the UAE capital, statistics from Asteco revealed.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), boosted estimates, raised target to $38.

- Reiterated Buy on (HGSI), raised target to $30.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.75% to +1.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 103.0 -1.0 basis point.
S&P 500 futures +.92%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +1.03%.

Morning Preview

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Who’s Speaking?
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Politico Headlines
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ABT)/.90

- (PGR)/.32

- (JPM)/.51

- (LSTR)/.38

- (CCK)/.80

- (ADTN)/.32

- (XLNX)/.22

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Import Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.0% increase in August.

- Advance Retail Sales for September are estimated to fall -2.1% versus a +2.7% gain in August.

- Retail Sales Ex Autos for September are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in August.

10:00 am EST

- Business Inventories for August are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -1.0% decline in July.

2:00 pm EST

- Minutes of Sept. 23 FOMC Meeting.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Tarullo speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Bloomberg Global Confidence Index, (CHK) analyst, (SAI) investor conference and the API energy inventory report day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by HMO, Insurance, Drug and REIT shares

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Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Healthcare Reform Concerns, Profit-Taking, Higher Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is falling -.61% and is high at 22.87. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 101.0 and the total put/call is around average at .81. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 2.06 at its intraday peak, and is currently .86. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +1.96% today to 70.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.88% to 101.0 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is up 1 basis point to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is -.34% to 36.63 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 1.86%, which is down 79 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is unch. today. Cyclical shares are outperforming again today. Retail, Homebuilding, Telecom, Steel and Gold shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. Healthcare-related stocks are the only sources of meaningful weakness, falling on reform worries. Overall, today’s action should be viewed as another healthy light volume consolidation. Weekly retail sales jumped +.6% versus a -2.2% decline the prior week and up from a -4.3% decline the last week of August. This is a big positive and if this trend continues it would likely indicate further improvement in broad economic data over the coming months. Nikkei futures indicate a -6 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +21 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, lower long-term rates, takeover speculation, investment manager performance anxiety and earnings optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Cisco Systems Inc.(CSCO), the largest maker of networking equipment, agreed to buy Starent Networks Corp. in a deal valued at $2.9 billion, its second multibillion- dollar acquisition in less than two weeks. Cisco will pay $35 a share in cash and assume outstanding equity awards, according to a statement today. The per-share price is 21 percent more than Starent’s closing price yesterday. Cisco, based in San Jose, California, expects the transaction to add to earnings by fiscal 2012.

- Copper prices dropped the most in more than a week as equity markets fell and Rio Tinto Group(RTP) said demand in the U.S. and Europe has yet to recover. “For the next six to 12 months, we are somewhat cautious on the market,” Bret Clayton, the chief executive officer of Rio’s copper business, said today in London. “The U.S. has bottomed out but we’re not seeing a pickup in demand yet,” Clayton said in an interview. “Some expected a pickup in demand when restocking took place. We haven’t seen that yet and we probably don’t anticipate that until later this year.” Copper futures have almost doubled this year as imports rose to record levels in China, the world’s largest metals user. The nation probably reduced inbound shipments last month, Lambrecht said. Purchases of imported copper and related products fell 20 percent to 325,098 metric tons in August compared with a month earlier, according to a government report. “We have seen two months in a row of sharp slowdowns in import demand,” she said. “We are expecting another fall” to be reported tomorrow.

- Banks will push the Obama administration to expand its mortgage-modification program to allow interest-only periods on reworked loans, seeking to bring more homeowners into the initiative while recognizing concern that it may only postpone defaults, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co(JPM).

- The Australian dollar’s rally through 90 US cents, the best performance of the past year, may stall after steel prices in China dropped to the lowest since April, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Chinese steel prices dropped 21% in the past two months. “The steel market is suggesting that demand for Australia’s commodities hasn’t been strengthening in recent months,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Sydney.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) was cut to “neutral” by Meredith Whitney as the analyst who correctly predicted Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut two years ago dropped her only “buy” recommendation. Whitney cited valuation for the downgrade of Goldman Sachs, the biggest U.S. securities firm before converting to a bank last year, and said her outlook for the company remains bullish. Goldman Sachs has surged 31 percent since Whitney raised her rating on the New York-based bank to “buy” on July 13.

- The U.K. inflation rate dropped in September by more than economists forecast to the lowest in five years as the worst recession in a generation purged cost pressures throughout the economy. Consumer prices rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with 1.6 percent the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today in London.

- Dozens of swine flu patients were saved from respiratory failure when doctors in Australia and New Zealand turned to machines that pump blood through an artificial lung, resulting in a 17-fold increase in the uncommon procedure. The finding, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association yesterday, is based on the first population- wide study of lung-bypass equipment made by companies such as Getinge AB and Medtronic Inc.(MDT) to treat H1N1 patients. The study suggests the life-saving technique might be used on about 800 cases in the U.S. this winter and 1,300 in the European Union.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said threats to impose new sanctions against Iran are “counterproductive” and the international community should push for a diplomatic solution on the country’s nuclear program. “Our position is that at this stage all efforts should be made to support the negotiating process,” Lavrov said in Moscow after talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “Sanctions and the threat of pressure in the current situation are counterproductive in our view.”

- Businesses and governments need to invest at least $2.4 trillion by 2050 to capture carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants and factories and pump them underground, the International Energy Agency said. That much is required to develop 3,400 projects globally that trap and store the greenhouse gas and help cut emissions from fossil fuels by half from 2005 levels, according to the IEA’s “road map” for carbon capture that was published today.

- The U.S. needs a more aggressive approach to prevent people from driving under the influence of drugs, said R. Gil Kerlikowske, the Obama administration’s director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. Kerlikowske said today he is concerned about a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration survey released in July showing that 16 percent of nighttime weekend drivers tested positive for potentially impairing drugs, including marijuana, cocaine and over-the-counter and prescription medications. “A lot more has to be done,” Kerlikowske said in an interview in the Washington bureau of Bloomberg News. “We have to have a much more aggressive, forward-leaning stance that doing drugs and driving is a significant problem and don’t do it.”

- The United Auto Workers reached a tentative accord with Ford Motor Co.(F), as the automaker seeks contract concessions similar to those the union agreed to with the company’s U.S. competitors.

- Dell Inc.(DELL) founder Michael Dell, who announced a $3.9 billion takeover of Perot Systems Corp. last month, said his company is “rapidly developing” merger expertise and will seek more deals as part of a turnaround plan. “You will see us be reasonably active,” Dell, the company’s chief executive officer, said in an interview yesterday. He said Dell will look at acquisitions that bolster sales to corporate customers and will consider more purchases in the health-care industry.

- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said inflation and economic growth will probably stay below the central bank’s objectives for “quite some time,” warranting very low interest rates for an “extended period.” The risk of slowing inflation will exceed the chance of accelerating prices “for a while,” and there will be a “gradual” recovery that helps curtail joblessness, Kohn said today in a speech to economists in St. Louis.

Wall Street Journal:

- Ford Motor Co. (F) said Tuesday it sold 119,338 automobiles in China in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, up 79% from a year earlier.

- An Afghan judge resigned from the country’s electoral watchdog commission, blaming what he called “foreign interference” for holding up the declaration of the final result, citing Judge Maulavi Mustafa Barakzai.

- Members of the Norwegian committee that gave Barack Obama the Nobel Peace Prize are strongly defending their choice against a storm of criticism that the award was premature and a potential liability for the U.S. president. Asked to comment on the uproar following Friday's announcement, four members of the five-seat panel told The Associated Press that they had expected the decision to generate both surprise and criticism. Three of them rejected the notion that Mr. Obama hadn't accomplished anything to deserve the award, while the fourth declined to answer that question. A fifth member didn't answer calls seeking comment.

CNBC:

- Investors have yet to buy in fully to the stock rally even though prices have surged more than 50 percent. But that caution has actually given rise to hopes that the rally still has legs.

Fox News:

- In an unannounced move, President Obama is dispatching up to 15,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan beyond the 21,000 he announced in March. The additional troops are primarily support forces -- such as engineers, medical personnel, intelligence experts and military police. A Washington Post report published Tuesday said Obama dispatched 13,000 additional troops, but an unnamed defense official familiar with the process told Fox News that the number is closer to 15,000. "Obama authorized the whole thing. The only thing you saw announced in a press release was the 21,000," a defense official, speaking anonymously, told the Washington Post.

NYPost:
- A Connecticut college has warned students interning for late-night, skirt-chasing TV funnyman David Letterman to stay at arm's length from the host. A rep from Quinnipiac University told the celebrity Web site TMZ that "due to recent circumstances we will have a discussion with those in charge of placing our interns at the David Letterman show in the future." In the statement, the school added, "We will diligently oversee this internship program to ensure that our interns are out of harm's way."

- Bernie "The Bruiser" Madoff got into a prison-yard tussle with a fellow inmate over -- of all things -- the stock market, eyewitnesses told The Post. And, by inmates' accounts, the 71-year-old Ponzi schemer came out the winner. Madoff, serving 150 years at the Butner, NC, federal prison, was heard last week getting into a heated debate over the state of the market with another senior-citizen jailbird. The shouting match got so heated that the inmate pushed Madoff, who shoved back harder with both hands, causing his attacker to stumble. As the attacker tried to stand up straight, Madoff hovered over him red-faced and glaring, eyewitnesses said. The stunned attacker went chicken and took off -- allowing Madoff to collect some "cred" among his fellow prisoners.

Gigaom:

- A growing number of early-stage deals and general optimism in the technology industry helped push venture capital investments up 14 percent in the third quarter of this year, to $6.1 billion from $5.3 billion in the prior quarter, according to a report released today from ChubbyBrain, a information services company that tracks VC activity. This should be viewed as good news for entrepreneurs who are currently looking to raise capital for their startups in coming months.

HomeTextilesToday:

- After a month of almost constant week-over-week comp declines, same-store sales during the first week of October were up 0.6%, the Johnson Redbook reported today. Discounter comps rose 2.1%, offset by a -1.9% decline at department stores. However, on a month-over-month basis, comps rose 1.9% compared to September. Demand for seasonal apparel picked up as retailers began heading into the Columbus Day weekend, according to Redbook analyst Catlin Levis. “The main merchandise itmes in October include mid-fall seasonal apparel, Halloween, winter sports and early holiday,” she said. Halloween sales “were generally on track,” said added, with many stores putting out themed merchandise earlier than usual. Ditto for the holidays.

Greenwire:

- The US should be able to adopt limits on greenhouse-gas emissions at the UN talks in December even if domestic climate and energy legislation is not finished, citing Senator Barbara Boxer.

The Big Picture:

- Former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie explains why China is a potential bubble. Asset bubbles come and go. Each begins with a story: Japan as No. 1, the East Asian miracle, dotcom mania, how financial innovations eliminate risk – just to mention the latest four. Each begins with a plausibly bullish story, which is then magnified by the financial markets, creating the inevitable bubble.

Politico:

- Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) said Tuesday that she will vote for the Senate Finance Committee health care legislation, ending weeks of speculation about whether any Republicans would sign onto the Democratic reform bill. “Is this bill all that I want? Far from it. Is it all that it could be? No,” Snowe said. “But when history calls, history calls. And I happen to think the consequences of inaction dictate the urgency of Congress to take every opportunity to demonstrate its capacity to solve the monumental issues of our time.” She said she supports the bill with reservations, and shares the Republican concerns about how Democrats will shape the bill after it leaves the committee. In a subtle warning, Snowe said: “My vote today is my vote today, it doesn’t forecast what my vote will be tomorrow.”

- Some of the progressives who helped put Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in power are demanding that they come down hard on House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel and any Senate committee chairmen who stray from the flock on health care reform. Don’t hold your breath. While three Democratic insiders say leaders have privately discussed the possibility of ousting Rangel or asking him to step aside, there has been no move to approach the New York Democrat — and aides to Pelosi have made it clear that she won’t do anything about him until the House Ethics Committee finishes its probe. That doesn’t sit well with Markos Moulitsas and Arianna Huffington, two stars of the liberal blogosphere who’ve joined House Republicans in calling for Rangel’s ouster.

- Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a tax problem: The so-called millionaire’s tax that her fellow House Democrats want to use to pay for the bulk of their health care legislation won’t keep pace with rising costs. For the California congresswoman, who’s been echoing President Barack Obama’s mantra that health care reform shouldn’t add a dime to the federal deficit, the prospect could result in a sea of red ink. And it’s giving moderates plenty to grumble about. The months-long fight over an optional government-run insurance plan has generated much public tension between liberal and conservative Democrats. Now the competing wings are locked in a behind-the-scenes tussle in the House over how to pay for the proposal.

Washington Times:

- The surprise endorsement of climate-change legislation by a leading Senate Republican has jump-started the languishing proposal but also has raised the prospect that it will include two major items that environmentalists dislike: more nuclear power and more offshore oil drilling.

USAToday:

- One of the things expected to help multinational U.S. companies as they report quarterly earnings isn't exactly coming through as planned. In theory, when the U.S. dollar is weak, as it is now, U.S. companies benefit because U.S. goods should appear cheaper to overseas consumers and U.S. companies should get a boost converting foreign sales back into dollars. But so far, very early in earnings season, U.S.-based companies that do a lot of business overseas, including Alcoa (AA), Yum Brands (YUM), Levi Strauss and Biomet, have reported taking hits on currency fluctuations even as the greenback plummets. Investors counting on a weak-dollar boost could be disappointed, says Marc Chandler, a currency expert at Brown Bros. Harriman. "Just because there's a weak dollar and you buy (stock in U.S.) multinationals, it might not work out," he says. "There's no shortcut to investing."

Reuters:

- Australian attitudes to China are cooling, with 50 percent believing there is too much Chinese investment in Australia and almost half the population in favor of limiting China's influence, a poll suggested on Tuesday. Relations between China and Australia have been strained in recent months by political opposition to China's efforts to buy key stakes in Australian commodities and resources firms and the arrest of an Australian mining executive in China.

- U.S. agribusiness and trading company Cargill Inc reported a 65 percent drop in quarterly profit Tuesday, hurt by plunging earnings at fertilizer maker Mosaic (MOS) Co, in which Cargill is the majority shareholder.

- U.S. freight company J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is close to signing a long-term intermodal agreement with an eastern railroad, most likely Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), according to analysts.

Correio Braziliense:

- Brazil’s government may cut payroll taxes in a bid to encourage job creation, citing a government official.

DigiTimes:

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) are expected to implement aggressive capex plans for 2010, when the semiconductor market is likely to stage a turnaround, according to sources at the companies. TSMC has tentatively set a capex target of US$3 billion for 2010, a 30% increase compared to US$2.3 billion allocated for 2009, while UMC internally has estimated its 2010 capex will double to US$1 billion from the 2009 level of US$500 million, the sources said. Both TSMC and UMC have allocated large portions of their 2009 budgets for 45/40nm foundry capacity, industry sources commented, adding that ramping production on the processes through 12-inch facility expansion will remain a focus in 2010. SEMI has forecast chip fab spending will rise 64% to US$24 billion in 2010, following a 50.7% drop in 2009. TSMC and UMC are scheduled to hold their investors conferences on October 29 and October 28, respectively, to announce third-quarter results and disclose guidance for the fourth quarter.

Edaily:

- Samsung Electronics Co. plans to invest “a lot” in semiconductors next year, citing Kwon Oh Hyun, head of the company’s chip division.

Caijing:
- Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min may be nominated by China to become the International Monetary Fund’s vice president.

Bear Radar

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