BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Financial longs, Biotech longs, Retail long, Technology longs, Defense longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -6.92% and is high at 20.17. The ISE Sentiment Index is above average at 161.0 and the total put/call is below average at .66. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day, hitting .43 at its intraday trough, and is currently .61. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +3.12% to 64.11 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising -3.32% to 82.76 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -1 basis point to 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th, 2008. The 2-year swap spread is falling -2.18% to 27.88 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 9 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.41%, which is down -24 basis points since July 7th, 2008. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is unch. today. Today’s gains are broad-based. Gaming, HMO, Disk Drive, Steel, Gold, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker, Coal and I-Banking shares are especially strong, rising 2.75%+. (XLF) is trading better today. On the negative side, (IYR) has been a bit heavy throughout the day and market volume is lackluster. (IYR) has been trending lower over the last week.It needs to begin to participate for the market to build meaningfully on recent gains.Nikkei futures indicate an +216 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an unch. open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, technical buying, stable long-term rates, buyout speculation and less financial sector pessimism.
- The cost of insuring against losses on corporate bonds fell on the first trading day of 2010 as investors bet a rebound in Chinese and US manufacturing will help spur recovery in the global economy. The Markiet CDX North America Investment Grand Index fell 2.5 basis points to 82.75, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group prices at 11 am in NY. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 European companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings dropped 15.5 basis points to 416.5, the lowest since May 2008.
- Cold, windy weather enveloping the U.S. from the northern Plains to the East Coast may continue to break temperature records today. In south Florida, orange growers may escape most crop damage. The National Weather Service issued hard-freeze warnings for last night and this morning for southern Alabama and Georgia and the northern part of Florida, including the panhandle. Such warnings alert growers of temperatures that may fall below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (zero Celsius) for more than three consecutive hours. A low of 20 degrees was forecast for Jacksonville, Florida, overnight, which would break the existing record of 22 degrees, said Dave Samuhel, a meteorologist for AccuWeather.com Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Typical temperatures for Jacksonville this time of year are 42 degrees, he said. A cold blast expected next weekend “is supposed to be stronger” than the current weather pattern, Jack Scoville, a Price Group Inc. vice president in Chicago, said in an e-mail yesterday.
- Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America(BAC) along with Citigroup(C), Morgan Stanley(MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), all based in New York, added a combined $2.74 billion of the debt, for which there were few buyers as recently as March, to their short-term trading assets during the third quarter, up 13 percent from the second quarter, the most-recent data show. Prices of these securities may slump again, leaving the banks exposed to potential losses that the Treasury Department’s rescue plan was designed to mitigate, said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at New York-based Graham Fisher & Co., which advises regulators and institutional investors. “It’s a trade that will likely work out, but it’s still a speculative trade, which is not what a taxpayer should want from firms that have only recently come out of critical care,” Rosner said.
- U.S. manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than three years, capping a late-2009 global factory rebound that helped pull the world out of the worst slump since the 1930s. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.9, the highest level since April 2006, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion. Construction spending dropped for a seventh month, the Commerce Department said in a separate release. “There is a broad-based global manufacturing recovery occurring right now,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. Maki was the No. 1 forecaster of economic growth from January through September in a Bloomberg News survey. “Manufacturing was picking up speed as we moved into the end of 2009, and we expect growth will be picking up further.” The production index climbed, while the new orders gauge rose to the highest level in five years. The employment index increased to 52 from 50.8, the third straight month of expansion.
- In governor’s races across the country, top GOP candidates are concentrating their attacks on the White House, the surest sign yet that Republicans see opportunity in nationalizing the 2010 election and a departure from the strategy that elected two Republicans to governorships in November. While Chris Christie in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell in Virginia both refrained from overt criticism of President Barack Obama in their successful 2009 races, the current crop of GOP gubernatorial contenders seems intent on making the 2010 election a referendum on Obama’s policies.
Nikkei English News: - Panasonic Corp., in partnership with Skype Technologies SA, plans to introduce plasma televisions equipped with videoconferencing functions.