- Why All The Arguments For Walking Away From Your Mortgage Are Pathetic. The bottom line for me is that just because we're angry at banks, doesn't mean that it's okay to do anything and everything to get back at them--much less a good idea. Our response should be targeted at the things they did wrong (like lending money to people who probably couldn't pay it back), and should cause fewer problems for the general public than it solves. Voluntary defaults fail on both counts.
-US Must Cut Spending to Save AAA Rating, Warns Fitch. Fitch Ratings has issued the starkest warning to date that the US will lose its AAA credit rating unless acts to bring the budget deficit under control, citing a spiral in debt service costs and dependence on foreign lenders. Brian Coulton, the agency's head of sovereign ratings, said the US is shielded for now by its pivotal role in global finance and the dollar's status as the key reserve currency, but the picture is deteriorating fast enough to ring alarm bells. In the absence of measures to reduce the budget deficit over the next three to five years, government indebtedness will approach levels by the latter half of the decade that will bring pressure to bear on the US's 'AAA' status", he said. Fitch expects the combined state and federal debt to reach 94pc of GDP next year, up from 57pc at the end of 2007. Federal interest costs will reach 13pc of revenues, meaning that an eighth of all taxes will go to service debt. Most fiscal experts view this level as dangerously close to the point of no return for debt dynamics. The rating alert is a reminder that fiscal stimulus and bank rescues across the world have merely shifted private debt on to public shoulders. The bail-outs looked deceptively 'costless' at the time, but the damage to sovereign states may take years to repair. The US Treasury says interest payments as a share of GDP will rise to 3.6pc by 2016, the highest since data began in 1940 – when it was 0.8pc.
- (GOOG) - We believe that from an investment perspective legal/political challenges in China over the last few years have significantly limited financial/valuation expectations for Google in China. Thus, as a first pass, we view recent developments as a modest - not material - negative development for (GOOG).Target $640.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -2.25% to -.50% on avg.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 91.0 +5.5 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil build of +1,500,000 barrels versus a +1,329,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +1,700,000 barrels versus a +3,737,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,300,000 barrels versus a -233,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.5% versus a -.41% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget deficit for December is estimated to widen to -$92.0B versus -$51.8B in November.
- Fed's Beige Book
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Evans speaking, Treasury's 10-year note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (MON) R&D update, Goldman Energy Conference, Needham Growth Conference, (DPZ) investor day and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by banks and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Financial longs and Technology longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost ever sector is declining and volume is slightly above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising +6.38% and is around average at 18.68. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly below average at 135.0 and the total put/call is around average at .81. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 2.22 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.65. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +6.71% to 58.24 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +2.24% to 77.95 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is up -2 basis points to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th, 2008. The 2-year swap spread is falling -.90% to 26.76 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.47%, which is down -18 basis points since July 7th, 2008. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is up +2 basis points today. Economically sensitive shares are underperforming today, with the MS Cyclical Index falling -1.91%. HMO, Semi, Gold, Ag and Alt Energy shares are especially weak, falling 2.50%+. A number of market leaders are underperforming today. On the positive side, investor angst is surging quite a bit with a relatively mild pullback in the major averages.Long-term rates are at session lows, falling -10 bps.There are pockets of relative strength in various sectors.I suspect today’s weakness is much more related to profit-taking in overbought sectors, China worries and financial sector political concerns than (AA)’s disappointing earnings report. Asia, was barely lower last night.I expect those shares to come under pressure tonight.However, if they remain firm the pullback in US stocks may prove very short-lived. Nikkei futures indicate a -109 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +4 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, China hard-landing worries, more shorting and financial sector political fears.