G-20 Unity Born in Crisis Fractures as Leaders Pursue Own Ends. President Barack Obama finds himself on the defensive before a summit of world leaders tomorrow as his European and Asian counterparts disparage U.S. policies they say weaken the dollar and stoke hot-money flows. The fissures over U.S. policy and concern countries may react with competitive currency devaluations underscore how the end of the financial crisis has paved the way for national divisions to overtake the desire for a coordinated response that first brought the G-20 leaders together.
Einhorn's Greenlight Says Fed's Quantitative Easing Won't Benefit Economy. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. said the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy an additional $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries through June won’t stimulate the economy, and helps explain the rally in gold to record levels. The Fed’s so-called quantitative easing announced Nov. 3 will probably result in rising prices of basic goods for consumers and businesses, curtailing economic growth, the New York-based hedge-fund firm said in a Nov. 1 letter to clients, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. “It is quite likely that QE2 will slow the economy by raising food and energy prices, which would act as a tax on consumers and business,” the firm said in the letter. “Other than satisfying the political need to ‘do something,’ we believe it is doubtful that QE2 will be successful.”
Fed Monetary Stimulus Prompts Clashing Views From Senate's Shelby, Johnson. Top lawmakers on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee stated opposing views about the Federal Reserve’s expansion of record monetary stimulus, widening the political rift over the effort to spur the U.S. recovery. “I commend the Fed for being willing to try and help improve economic growth in America,” South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, a Democrat who’s in line to begin leading the committee in January, said today in a statement to Bloomberg News. Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the panel’s top-ranking Republican, said he’s “worried about the risks” of the Fed’s actions.
China Said to Order Some Banks to Raise Reserve Ratio by 50 Basis Points. China ordered some lenders including Bank of Communications Co. to increase their reserve ratios by 50 basis points, said a person with direct knowledge of the situation. The increases will be effective Nov. 15, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the orders weren’t public. Lu said reserve requirements will now stand at 18 percent for the nation’s four biggest banks. Bank shares fell in Hong Kong and Shanghai, with the Hang Seng Finance Index dropping 1.3 percent as of 12:20 p.m. China may miss the government’s target for 3 percent inflation this year, the nation’s top economic planning agency said yesterday.
Credit Swaps Rise for Second Day as Rally Runs 'Out of Gas'. The cost of protecting bonds in the U.S. from default rose for the second day, after falling last week to the lowest in six months, on concern that the debt rally is running “out of gas.” The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 2.7 basis points to a mid- price of 90.5 basis points as of 4:56 p.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd.
The cost of trading Irish government bonds may jump after LCH Clearnet Ltd., the world's second-largest fixed-income clearing house, told customers it may increase margin requirements, UBS AG said. "LCH has given its clients an early warning, an opportunity to get out," said Penn, a market analyst in London. "The spread has moved to a point where they probably need to be doing something."
Credit-default swaps on the junior bonds of Allied Irish Banks Plc are signaling that full government ownership of the lender is "all but fully priced in" by traders, according to Credit Agricole SA.
Baucus, Levin Say Congress to Keep 'Onerous' Minimum Tax From Increasing. Congress will “do everything possible” to prevent the alternative-minimum tax from forcing 21 million households to pay an additional $66 billion in taxes this year, four lawmakers said in a letter to the Internal Revenue Service. Max Baucus of Montana and Charles Grassley of Iowa, the chairman and top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, urged IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman today to prepare for the 2011 tax filing season by assuming the minimum tax will be adjusted for inflation.
U.S. to Give More Aid to Palestinian Authority, Official Says. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tomorrow will announce additional assistance to the Palestinian Authority, which is striving to close its budget deficit as the U.S. seeks to revive talks toward peace with Israel. “We are in a new fiscal year and we will have the opportunity to make an additional contribution to the Palestinian Authority,” U.S. State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said today in Washington. Clinton will make a statement on the aid in a video conference with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad scheduled for 10:15 a.m. Washington time. Fayyad, during a visit to the United Nations General Assembly in September, asked donors for about $500 million to help close his budget deficit. The Palestinian Authority needed $1.2 billion in aid in 2009 and $1.8 billion in 2008.
Netanyahu Rejects Obama Criticism of East Jerusalem Construction Planning. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected U.S. and Palestinian criticism of Israeli plans to build more homes in east Jerusalem, saying Israel has never accepted “any limitations” on construction in what it regards as its capital city. “Jerusalem is not a settlement,” Netanyahu said, according to a text message sent from his office yesterday. “Jerusalem is the capital of the state of Israel. Israel never took upon itself any limitations on construction in Jerusalem.”
Wall Street Journal:
Ireland's Fate Tied to Doomed Banks. With doubts swirling about the solvency of the Irish state in early September, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan summoned a dozen senior government and bank officials to a conference room nicknamed the "torture chamber," a nod to its history as a venue for painful meetings.
The Next Credit Crisis? Munis. Debtholders Are Left Steamed as Some Cities Forgo Repayment Promises. The housing crisis was fueled by cash-strapped homeowners who walked away from their mortgages. Some analysts and investors now are worried about the same problem happening with debts of cities and towns.
Extending Tax Cuts, But With a Catch. Top Democrats Link Keeping Bush-Era Breaks to an Overhaul of Tax Code; Republican Aides Say They Are Open to the Idea. Two top Senate Democrats floated the idea Tuesday of extending the Bush-era income-tax rates for a limited time only, and tying that move to an overhaul of the U.S. tax code or passage of policies to address the budget deficit.
Don't Look Now, But Here Comes the New, New Bank Fees. Less than a year after the passage of new laws limiting banks' ability to impose certain fees on credit and debit cards, Bank of America Corp., Discover Financial Services, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and other lenders are using different tactics to boost their fee income. Some are raising minimum payments on certain customers' accounts in order to increase late penalties. Others are ramping up credit-protection insurance programs and charging customers for coverage without permission. Still others are pushing aggressively into high-fee prepaid cards, which are exempt from most of the new rules.
CNBC:
CME Taps the Brakes on Silver. Tapping the brakes on the silver rally, the CME sent a letter to its clearing member firms and others Tuesday raising the amount of margin needed to trade silver futures contracts.
Lawsuits Pile Up Against US Banks in Mortgage Mess. Lawsuits against banks over their mortgage lending and foreclosure practices continue to pile up, with JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial and Ally Financial disclosing suits on Tuesday.
Exclusive: Presenting the Flash Crashes of 2010 - Part I. In an exclusive collaboration between Nanex and Zero Hedge, we are pleased to present to our readers the first part of a multi-series project that will demonstrate the flash crashes of 2010, and subsequently, of 2009 and 2008.
Report: White House Edited to Favor Drilling Ban. The White House rewrote crucial sections of an Interior Department report to suggest an independent group of scientists and engineers supported a six-month ban on offshore oil drilling, the Interior inspector general says in a new report. In the wee hours of the morning of May 27, a staff member to White House energy adviser Carol Browner sent two edited versions of the department report’s executive summary back to Interior. The language had been changed to insinuate the seven-member panel of outside experts – who reviewed a draft of various safety recommendations – endorsed the moratorium, according to the IG report obtained by POLITICO.
“The White House edit of the original DOI draft executive summary led to the implication that the moratorium recommendation had been peer-reviewed by the experts,” the IG report states, without judgment on whether the change was an intentional attempt to mislead the public.
President Obama in Jakarta: 'Indonesia is a part of me'. President Barack Obama believes Indonesia and the United States have two things in common that could bridge the east-west divide: democracy and himself. “Let me begin with a simple statement,” Obama said Wednesday in a speech to the Muslim world at the University of Indonesia. He then spoke in Indonesian: “Indonesia is a part of me,” a statement which drew cheers and applause.
Reuters:
ACLU Sues to Stop Defense of Marriage Act. The American Civil Liberties Union filed suit on Tuesday challenging the constitutionality of a federal law defining marriage as between a man and a woman, contending it denies equal protection for gays and lesbians. The suit targets the Defense of Marriage Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1996, which allows states to deny recognition of same-sex marriages performed in other states.
Qualcomm(QCOM) CEO: May Exit India Broadband Mid-2011. U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm could exit its wireless broadband business in India by the second half of next year, the Business Line newspaper reported on Wednesday citing the company's chief executive.
Short Bets in U.S. Stocks Fall in Late October.Bearish bets fell further in late October, U.S. stock exchanges said on Tuesday, suggesting investors abandoned their positions as the market rallied. Short interest on the NYSE and Nasdaq declined about 2 percent through the second half of October.
Financial Times:
China can "stand firm" against pressure to appreciate the yuan at the upcoming G20 summit, Yao Yang, director of the China Center for Economic Research and Peking University professor, wrote. A stronger currency would benefit the U.S. a little while depressing China's gross domestic product and employment by 3%, Yao wrote.
EU Threatens to Block Chinese Bids for Public Contracts. The European Union will block access for Chinese companies bidding for publicly funded contracts unless businesses from Europe get the same access in China, under new proposals tabled in Brussels as David Cameron held trade talks in Beijing.
Irish Independent:
One-Third of Nationwide Home Loans in Arrears. MORE than a third of residential mortgages issued by Irish Nationwide Building Society are in arrears, the Irish Independent has learned. Around half of the buy-to-let mortgages issued by the society in the past few years are also in arrears.
People's Daily:
The U.S.'s second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, is financial protectionism, Su Jingxiang, a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, wrote.
Xiaoxiang Morning Post:
Liu Mingkang, head of China's banking regulator, said the nation's economic growth this quarter may be less than 9%. The Chinese currency's appreciation since June has put great pressure on exports, Liu was cited as saying.
Evening Recommendations Citigroup:
Reiterated Buy on (ALL), boosted estimates, target $37.
Reiterated Buy on (MDR), boosted target to $23.
Night Trading
Asian equity indices are -1.25% to +.50% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +1.0 basis point.
Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 96.0 +2.25 basis points.
The Trade Deficit for September is estimated at -$45.0 Billion versus -$46.3 Billion in August.
The Import Price Index for October is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -.3% decline in September.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 450K versus 4457K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4305K versus 4340K prior.
10:30 am EST
Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,500,000 barrels versus a +1,950,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -2,689,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by -2,000,000 barrels versus a -3,568,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected unch. versus a -1.9% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
The Monthly Budget Deficit for October is estimated at -$140.0 Billion versus -$176.4 Billion in September.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The $16 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Piper Jaffray Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Wells Fargo Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (CSFB) Healthcare Conference, (BBD) investor day and the (HA) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.49 bps -.87%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 107.0 bps -.69%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 171.50 bps +.29%
Emerging Market CDS Index 200.90 bps +3.30%
2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +2 bps
TED Spread 17.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
Yield Curve 222.0 +7 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $158.30/Metric Tonne +.70%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +32.60 unch.
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Slightly Lower: On losses in my Retail and Biotech long positions
Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM), (QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish as the S&P 500 trades near session lows despite gains in overseas equities and a decline in the Ireland sovereign cds. On the positive side, Ag, Medical Equipment and Education shares are higher on the day. The Ireland sovereign cds is dropping -4.40% to 571.08 bps and the US sovereign cds is declining -4.69% to 42.28 bps. The 10-year yield is rising +12 bps to 2.67%. Copper is rising +.9% and Lumber is gaining +.73%. Weekly retail sales rose +2.6% this week versus a +2.6% gain the prior week.On the negative side, Airline, REIT, Homebuilding, Gold, Oil Tanker and Coal shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than 2.0%. Cyclical and small-cap shares are underperforming. (XLF)/(IYR) are trading heavy again today. Shanghai copper inventories are now at the highest level since early June. As well, LME Copper Canceled Warrants have been trending lower since early Sept., which is a negative. Key global cds indices are maintaining recent gains, which is a large negative. The divergence between the US/Eurozone Economic Surprise Indices, rising eurzone sovereign debt worries and overly bullish trader expectations regarding the euro currency are providing the catalysts for more euro weakness. The -4.08% decline in (IYR) is troubling and should be monitored closely. I suspect the major averages have made another short-term top. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, eurozone sovereign debt worries, rising global economic fear, more shorting and real estate sector worries.
Spain Leads Surge in Sovereign Credit Risk to Record in Europe. Spain led a surge in the cost of insuring European government debt to a record on concern the region’s peripheral nations will struggle to cut budget deficits and repay debt. Credit-default swaps on Spanish government bonds jumped 10.5 basis points to 275.5, an all-time high based on closing prices, according to data provider CMA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments climbed 2.5 basis points to 179.5. Investors are shunning Europe’s most indebted nations, driving borrowing costs and swaps higher for an 11th consecutive day. Confidence in Spain is ebbing after its central bank estimated the economy stagnated from July to September after emerging from recession in the first quarter. Credit-default swaps on Portugal increased 6 basis points to 473.5 and Ireland climbed 3 to 602, both records based on closing prices. Italy was up 5 at 204 and Greece was 3 basis points higher at 871, CMA prices show. Sovereign debt concerns drove swaps on European bank bonds to the highest levels in six weeks. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers rose 1.5 basis points to 141, and the subordinated index increased 2 basis points to 216.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Credit-default swaps on the senior debt of Allied Irish Banks Plc rose 17.5 basis points to a record 927 and Bank of Ireland Plc jumped 16.5 basis points to a record 739, CMA prices show. “These funding costs that you’re seeing right now are clearly not sustainable for countries that are not going to grow that fast for some years,” Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday on Bloomberg Television’s “Midday Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “There is a big probability the Irish and the Portuguese will end up having to get help from” policy makers, he said.
China's Dagong Downgrades U.S. to A+ on Quantitative Easing. China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. cut its credit rating for the U.S. to A+ from AA because of a Federal Reserve plan to purchase bonds to spur growth and inflation, according to Xinhua News Agency. The credit outlook for the U.S. is negative amid deteriorating debt repayment capability and a “drastic” drop in the government’s intention to repay debt, Dagong said, as cited by the state-controlled news agency. The Fed’s quantitative easing policy will erode the value of the dollar and is against the interests of creditors, the company said. “Serious defects in the U.S. economy will lead to long- term recession and fundamentally lower national solvency,” Dagong said, as cited by Xinhua. Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin said Nov. 4 that the Fed’s $600 billion on planned bond purchases is “uncontrolled” money printing, and Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said yesterday that the program could “shock” emerging markets by flooding them with capital.
Quant Fund Assets Plunge After Strategies Underperform, Nomura Report Says. Quantitative funds, which choose stocks according to mathematical models, may have lost almost half their assets since 2007 after failing to capture swings in markets, according to a study by Nomura Holdings Inc. Money overseen at a sample of 137 quant funds fell 43 percent over three years to $44 billion, while the quant share of actively managed equity funds is also estimated to have halved since 2007, the Tokyo-based bank said in a Nov. 4 report. The funds lost 24 percent based on price since October 2007, with the rest of the shrinkage coming from withdrawals, the report showed.
Baltic Index Falls for Ninth Day; Capesizes Extend Losing Streak. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell for a ninth day as hire rates for capesize vessels extended their longest losing streak in almost four months. The gauge dropped 15 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,467 points, the lowest level since Oct. 1, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange. Rents for capesizes, typical iron-ore haulers and the biggest ships tracked by the index, declined for a 10th day, the longest run since an 11-session drop through July 15. There’s “a slight hole in demand” for capesizes, Jan Bagger, a director at London-based Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, said by phone today.
Natural Gas Futures Rise to 11-Week High On Below-Normal U.S. Temperatures. Natural gas futures rose to the highest level in more than 11 weeks on speculation that lower- than-normal temperatures in the U.S. will boost demand for the heating fuel. Gas advanced to $4.21 per million British thermal units, the highest level since Aug. 19, as forecasts showed temperatures will be below average across much of the nation from Nov. 14 to Nov. 22, according to the National Weather Service. Natural gas for December delivery rose 5.1 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $4.139 per million Btu at 1:03 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There will be “widespread” cold weather in the U.S. East and Midwest beginning Nov. 14, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Chicago will have a low of 22 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-6 Celsius) on Nov. 19, 10 degrees below normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. New York will have a low of 37 degrees. The Energy Department is expected to report that gas stockpiles increased by 23 billion cubic feet to 3.844 trillion, surpassing the current record of 3.837 trillion set in November 2009, according to the median of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The number of U.S. gas drilling rigs fell 12 to 955 in the week ended Nov. 5, the lowest level since the week ended June 18, according to Baker Hughes Inc. The rig count is 30 percent higher than a year ago. Consumption will average 65 billion cubic feet a day, down from 65.16 billion estimated in October.
High-Frequency Traders Lobby, Donate to Head Off U.S. Rules. The high-frequency trading industry is stepping out of the shadows in Washington. Closely held companies with undisclosed profits and obscure names like Getco LLC, Hard Eight Futures LLC and Quantlab Financial LLC, are beginning to act more like Wall Street banks, cutting checks to politicians, forming trade groups and hiring lobbyists and ex-regulators. They’re looking to fend off tighter rules and appease lawmakers who say the firms disadvantage small investors and contribute to wild swings in stock prices. They have more than quadrupled their political giving over the last four years, a Bloomberg News analysis shows. The top recipients include Eric Cantor, set to become House majority leader, and several incoming senators who won in last week’s Republican rout.
BofA(BAC), JPMorgan(JPM) Reprise Perfect Trading Records in Third Quarter. Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the two biggest U.S. banks by assets, racked up perfect trading records for the second time this year, making money every day last quarter after accomplishing the same feat in the first three months of 2010.
Job Openings in U.S. Decreased 163,000 in September. Job openings in the U.S. dropped in September for a second month, signaling a sustained labor market rebound will take time to develop, a government report showed.
U.S. Airline Cancellations Rise 62% After Tarmac Rule. U.S. airlines canceled 4,754 flights in September, a 62 percent jump from the same month a year ago, as the government requires carriers to let passengers off stuck flights within three hours. The cancellation rate, rising to 0.9 percent from 0.57 percent in September 2009, has increased in four of five months since the Transportation Department imposed a rule April 29 to discourage airlines from keeping passengers on delayed aircraft.
Manhattan Salaries Rose 11.9% in First Quarter, Fed by Financial Industry. New York City’s borough of Manhattan experienced an 11.9 percent increase in salaries between January and March, the most for any big county in the nation after federal policies helped stabilize the financial industry, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The jump in Manhattan, where average weekly wages surged to $2,404, the highest rate among the biggest U.S. counties, didn’t extend to the city’s four outer boroughs, where average pay declined in the 2010 first quarter, the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said today.
Wall Street Journal:
GE's(GE) Immelt Stresses Chinese Protectionism Concerns. General Electric Co. Chairman Jeff Immelt said Tuesday the U.S. conglomerate feels welcome in China and is committed to the country, but protectionism in the world's second-largest economy remains a concern.
You Should Be Terrified By What We've Learned About The California Missile Launch. This morning we learned that yesterday a missile was launched off of the coast of California, but that the government had no idea who was behind it. Since then the Pentagon has been looking into it, and what have they discovered? NOTHING. They still have no idea.
A Lack of Transparency in S.E.C. Disclosure Rule. Has the Securities and Exchange Commission bungled its disclosure rules? That’s the question being whispered around Wall Street trading floors after a series of company disclosures in recent weeks from the likes of Microsoft and Google that appear to have created an awful lot of confusion, potentially giving some savvy investors an edge while potentially putting the rest of us at a disadvantage.
The Return of the Risk Arbs. The business of betting on mergers and acquisitions is coming back from the dead. As Wall Street insists that the merger business will rise again, hedge funds are pouring money into betting on the outcomes of those mergers in a strategy known as merger, or risk, arbitrage.
Prime Rents Seen as Manhattan 'Malling'. The mall-ification of the Big Apple continues. This fall, rents for Manhattan retail space have bounced in tourist hot spots, including Fifth Avenue, Times Square and SoHo, the Real Estate Board of New York said in a report yesterday. Brokers said rents are being pushed higher by demand from big retail chains that already serve many tourists in their hometowns.
Richmond Times-Dispatch:
Legal Challenge Could Derail Health Care Law. When 21 states and several private groups initiated lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the Obama health care lawearlier this year, critics denounced the suits as frivolous political grandstanding. But it is increasingly clear that the plaintiffs have a serious case with a real chance of victory.
A lawmaker with Fianna Fail, the biggest member of Ireland's ruling coalition, said he may vote against the 2011 budget should the government cut old-age pensions. Noel O'Flynn said he couldn't accept cuts in pensions.
Irish Independent:
Ireland's government is considering introducing a property tax and flat-rate water charges as part of a plan to cut 6 billion euros from next year's budget.