Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value (+.67%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.50% 2) Oil Tankers +1.92% 3) Banks +1.47%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• F, ISLN, LAD, BUCY, HTWR, TSTC, JOYG, ASYS, FIRE, TSLA, HGSI, BYI, CNH and TEX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NVS 2) MTG 3) BUCY 4) WY 5) NXY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ABFS 2) CSC 3) BJ 4) JCI 5) MDR
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis. Ireland rejected speculation that it was seeking a rescue before a Nov. 16 meeting of European finance ministers as Germany pushed for aid to calm volatility that sent borrowing costs of debt-laden countries to records. A bailout hasn’t been discussed by Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Cabinet, Enterprise Minister Batt O’Keeffe said today on Dublin-based broadcaster RTE, refuting talk that there is a “crisis.” He said Ireland has no immediate need for cash.
  
• Auto Asset-Backed Bonds Rally as GM's IPO Looms. The car and truck industry is gaining the confidence of bond investors as sales soar and General Motors Co. prepares an initial public offering of stock this week. Yields on securities tied to auto loans and leases have narrowed to 80 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate from 95 basis points three months ago, according to Barclays Capital. Spreads on bonds tied to other consumer debt, such as credit-card and student loans, were unchanged at 73 basis points.
• Harbinger Investigated by SEC, U.S. Attorney Over Loan to Founder Falcone. Harbinger Capital Partners is being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Attorney’s office over a $113 million loan to founder Philip Falcone and possible preferential treatment of some investors, according to two people with knowledge of the probe. Falcone, 48, took the loan from the Harbinger Capital Partners Special Situations Fund in October 2009 to pay personal taxes, Bloomberg Markets Magazine reported in September. At the time, investors were barred from exiting the fund because it had assets tied up in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The New York-based firm disclosed the loan in the fund’s March 12, 2010, financial statements.
• China's 4 Big Banks to Halt Property Loans Till Year-End: Paper. China’s four biggest state banks will not issue any new loans to property developers for the remainder of the year, the state-run China Real Estate Business reported, citing unidentified executives at the banks. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp, Bank of China Ltd. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., had met their allotted loan targets for the year, according to a copy of a report e-mailed to Bloomberg News by the newspaper yesterday. Approvals of new loans had ceased since the end of October, the newspaper said.
• China's 2010 Lead Consumption Growth May Slow to 11% on Lower Auto Sales. China’s consumption is expected to grow at 11 percent in 2010, down from 16.5 percent last year, as demand from auto leadproduction and telecommunications slows, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
• OECD Sees Risk of Australia Inflation Pressure, Urges Vigilance by RBA. Australia’s central bank should be ready to extend interest-rate increases as a once-in-a-century resources boom stokes the economy and risks faster inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said. “The slack in the economy is rapidly disappearing as unemployment is nearing its natural rate,” the Paris-based OECD said in a report today. The Reserve Bank of Australia “should remain vigilant” and “tighten policy if demand pressures on productive capacities intensify,” it said.
• BHP(BHP) Restarts Buyback After Scrapping $40 Billion Potash(POT) Bid. BHP Billiton Ltd. , the world’s largest mining company, resumed a share buyback after abandoning its $40 billion cash offer for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. following Canada’s rejection of the bid. BHP will buy $4.2 billion shares under a $13 billion buyback program it suspended in 2007, the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fresh Attack on Fed Move. GOP Economists, Lawmakers Call for Abandoning $600 Billion Bond Purchase. A group of prominent Republican-leaning economists, coordinating with Republican lawmakers and political strategists, is launching a campaign this week calling on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to drop his plan to buy $600 billion in additional U.S. Treasury bonds. "The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed's objective of promoting employment," they say in an open letter to be published as ads this week in The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. The increasingly loud criticism of the Fed comes as some economic officials outside the U.S. are criticizing the central bank's move to effectively print money, which has the side effect of pushing down the dollar on world currency markets. President Barack Obama last week defended the Fed. The move to buy more bonds, known as quantitative easing, "was designed to grow the economy," not cheapen the dollar, he said. "Printing money is no substitute for pro-growth fiscal policy," said Rep. Mike Pence, an Indiana Republican who has been privy to early discussions with the group of conservatives rallying opposition to the Fed plan. He said the signatories to the letter "represent a growing chorus of Americans who know that we should be seeking to stimulate our economy with tax relief, spending restraint and regulatory reform rather than masking our fundamental problems by artificially creating inflation."
• Arcelor(MT) Takes a Look at Massey(MEE). Europe-Based Steelmaker Expresses Interest as U.S. Coal Miner Considers Its Strategic Options.
• Goldman(GS) Hits a Setback on Payback. Dividend Issue Stalls Bid to Return to Berkshire Billions It Lent During Crisis; Buffett's Cash Hoard. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has hit a delay in its efforts to win U.S. government approval to pay back a $5 billion investment from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. because the Federal Reserve first wants to hammer out guidelines on bank dividend increases, according to people familiar with the matter.
• The Fed vs. Brazi's Reformers. Brazil's President-elect Dilma Rousseff may be pressured to respond to U.S. monetary easing with more protectionism and higher taxes.

CNBC:

• China to Consider Hot Money Policies: Report. China may deploy a mixture of policies to fend off hot money, an official paper cited a central bank executive as saying at the weekend, amid worries that the United States' policies could create unwelcome flows of capital toward China.
• Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis.
  

IBD:

• High-End Retailers Expected to Set A Fast Pace in Christmas Sales. If analysts' forecasts are on target, chains including Saks (SKS), Nordstrom (JWN), Coach (COH) and Tiffany & Co. (TIF) will be among the front-runners in the race to lure shoppers during the crucial Christmas period.

NY Times:

• 'Smart' Meters Draw Complaints of Inaccuracy. Sgt. John Robertson 2nd, an Army mechanic at nearby Fort Hood, is fuming about the so-called smart electric meter his local utility has installed on the side of his tidy, 1,800-square-foot home. Like thousands of consumers with the new meters around the country, Sergeant Robertson suspects the device is not as smart as advertised. In his case, he says it is inaccurately measuring his family’s power use and driving up his bills — some months by as much as 50 percent, to as high as $320 — since it was installed in December. This, he said, is despite his efforts to cut back on energy use.

NY Post:

• Storage Leader EMC(EMC) Agrees to Purchase Isilon(ISLN). EMC is expected to announce as early as today that it has reached a deal to buy Isilon, which stores video and digital images, The Post has learned. In the past few weeks, exclusive talks between EMC and Isilon had gone cold over price, but the two sides were very close to an agreement over the weekend, a person close to the situation said, and barring last-minute complications were set to seal the deal early this week.

CNNMoney:

• Jim Chanos: China's Treadmill to Hell. (video)
• Canada's Coming Housing Bust.
  

Business Insider:

• Wow -- Check Out How Blatantly Our Government Misled Us With the October Jobs Numbers! It turns out that there was a simple reason why the payroll numbers looked so good--a reason that had nothing to do with underlying strength of the jobs market. What was that reason? The government changed the "seasonal adjustment" it made to the payroll numbers--and, in so doing, boosted the number of "jobs" created in October by 100,000.
• Greece Just Voted for Three More Years of Austerity and Reform. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a vote of approval in today's run-off regional elections, which is great news for Greek bondholders.
• Portuguese Foreign Minister Says Country May Need to Leave Euro. Portuguese foreign minister Luis Amado has suggested his country might need to leave the eurozone if it cannot come to agreement on an austerity budget, according to Expresso (via WSJ.com)
• The Future-Proof Entrepreneur: 25 New Tech Treands You Need to Know About.

Zero Hedge:

• Is QE2 A Stealthy $90 Billion Gifting Scheme to the Primary Dealers? We have previously discussed how due to the inability to know at what price (par or market) the Fed is buying back bonds from the Primary Dealers, there is a distinct possibility that due to the par-market difference, especially with many CUSIPs trading near record prices over par, the Fed may be implicitly letting PDs pocket the market-to-notional difference. The total, as shown below, could amount to over $40 billion.
• Erik Nielsen's Resurgent Optimism Doused as Europe is on the Verge Again. Who would have thought it only takes for PIIGS spreads to go back to all time records, and for Ireland and Portugal to be hours away from joining Greece in the bailout corner, for Goldman's Erik Nielsen to turn bearish again. To wit: "if investors are running for the door out of fear of being the last one left behind, then there’ll be a liquidity crisis (as there would be for anyone with a financing need), and they’ll need help."

Washington Post:

• Opposition to U.S. Trial Likely to Keep Mastermind of 9/11 Attacks in Detention. Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, will probably remain in military detention without trial for the foreseeable future, according to Obama administration officials.

Forbes:

• Let's Use Tax Incentives to Untangle Housing Mess. Once the overabundance of housing is absorbed, a new market can emerge operating on a sustainable growth trend devoid of Congressional interference.
  

Politico:

• Senate Democrats Float Health Tax Repeal. Senate Democrats said Friday that they’re prepared to repeal a new tax reporting requirement in the health care reform law that has riled up small businesses over concern that the law is too burdensome.
• Shuler: I'll Run if Pelosi Does. Did Speaker Nancy Pelosi lead Democrats to the “land of milk and honey” or to a midterm election debacle? The debate among Democrats, which pits its greatly diminished Blue Dog Coalition, particularly Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) against those loyal to Pelosi, continued throughout the weekend, with Shuler making it clear he would launch a largely symbolic challenge against Pelosi for the position of House minority leader if she opts to run.

Reuters:

• Falcone Applies for Another Loan, Clients Fume. Billionaire money manager Philip Falcone, facing regulatory scrutiny for having borrowed $113 million from his hedge fund, is now taking a more conventional path to getting a loan -- he's going to a bank.
• Japan Manages Q3 Growth Spurt But Soft Patch Looms. Japan's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as expiring government stimulus steps gave consumption a last-minute boost, marking an upward blip in a moderate slowdown that is leading the economy to a standstill.
• SAIC Agrees to Take GM Stake in IPO. China's SAIC Motor Corp Ltd has agreed to take a stake in General Motors Co [GM.UL] if Chinese regulators approve a deal to deepen an existing alliance between the two automakers, four people familiar with the matter said.
• Lacker Says Fed's New Easing Push Too Risky. Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker indicated on Sunday he opposed the central bank's new round of monetary easing, saying he believed the policy was potentially dangerous and likely ineffective. Lacker, a vocal inflation hawk, said in a speech to economics teachers at the regional central bank's headquarters that monetary policy can lower joblessness only temporarily. "Trying to keep unemployment permanently lower than it otherwise would be is a recipe for continually accelerated inflation," he said, pointing to the inflation experience of the 1960s and 1970s as a cautionary tale.
• Obama Sees Prospect of Deals on Tax Cuts, START. U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday he was hopeful of working out a deal with Republicans over tax cuts and of winning ratification of a new nuclear weapons treaty with Russia.

Financial Times:

• Troubled California Begins $14 Billion Bond Sale.

Sunday Times:

• Allied Irish Bank Plc's deposit outflow since June is on a similar scale to that experienced by Bank of Ireland Plc's. Dublin-based Bank of Ireland said on Nov. 12 that it's loan-to-deposit ratio had risen to about 160% from 145% on June 30 after outflows of its customer deposits in its capital markets business.

Independent:

• Cowen Fury at BBC 'When Not Whether' Bailout Claim. The Irish Government has denied for the second time in 24 hours that it is in bailout talks with the EU, after the BBC reported yesterday that "preliminary talks" on financial support are taking place. The BBC report made the unsubstantiated statement that recourse to the EU bailout fund was "no longer a matter of whether but when".

Expansion:

• Spain's bailout fund FROB may need to raise more than $1.37 billion to aid savings banks, citing people familiar with the matter.

Economic Daily News:

• China's central bank may raise interest rates twice late this year and early next year, citing Chen Xikang, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. China's consumer prices may growth 4% in November and December, citing Chen. Prices may rise 4.7% next year, Chen said.

Kyodo:

• Siegfried Hecker, former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the U.S., said he was told North Korea is building an experimental light-water reactor at a facility in Nyeongbyeon.

China Securities Journal:

• China needs faster yuan gains to curb "imported" inflation caused by more expensive global commodities, citing Ba Shushong, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center.

Financial News:

• China should return to prudent monetary policy as soon as possible, citing Zhang Jianhua, the head of the central bank's research bureau.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (BWA) and (ORCL).

Citigroup:

• Upgraded (CL) to Buy, target $85.
• Reiterated Buy on (JCP), target $38.
• Reiterated Buy on (OCLR), target $12.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +3.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 102.50 +4.5 basis points.
• S&P 500 futures +.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (LOW)/.30
• (GYMB)/1.29
• (URBN)/.42
• (JWN)/.51
• (MCP)/-.10

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Advance Retail Sales for October are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.6% gain in September.
• Retail Sales Less Autos for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in September.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas for October are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in September.
• Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 14.0 versus a reading of 15.73 in August.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for September are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in August.

Upcoming Splits

• (HCSG) 3-for-2
• (WCN) 3-for-2
• (RAI) 2-for-1
• (AOS) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (RAI) Investor Meeting, (DOV) Investor Meeting and the (IART) Analyst Forum could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as investment manager performance angst, diminishing economic fear, seasonal strength and buyout speculation offset profit-taking, rising eurozone sovereign debt angst, China hard-landing worries and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,199.21 -2.17%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,199.21 -2.17%
  
• DJIA 11,192.58 -2.20%
  
• NASDAQ 2,518.21 -2.36%
  
• Russell 2000 719.27 -2.35%
  
• Wilshire 5000 12,448.0 -1.72%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 548.02 -2.01%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 606.28 -2.19%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 720.73 -2.29%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 952.07 -2.39%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 628.53%
  
• Transports 4,806.83 -2.37%
  
• Utilities 401.06 -2.08%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.70 -3.29%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,013.19 +1.14%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 860.06 +.74%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 746.17 -2.31%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +106,021 -3.04%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +48 -1,091
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 43.0 -27.12%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +130,108 n/a
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,433,324 n/a
  
• Total Put/Call .81 +9.46%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.72 +72.0%
  
• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -34.38%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.78 +229.63%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 20.61 +11.28%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 54.54% +2.92%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.65 +4,.29%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,580.35 +1.92%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.802 Trillion +.1%
  
• AAII % Bulls 57.56 +19.34%
  
• AAII % Bears 28.49 -4.36%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 303.60 -2.79%
  
• Crude Oil 84.88 -2.88%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 220.99 +.81%
  
• Natural Gas 3.80 -3.70%
  
• Heating Oil 236.32 -1.31%
  
• Gold 1,365.50 -2.04%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 245.45 -.40%
  
• Copper 389.80 -1.90%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 319.0 USD/Ton +1.27%
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,406 Yuan/Ton +1.97%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture 448.08 -6.50%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 123.90 +.65%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +36.0 +10.0 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 51.7% chance of no change, 48.3% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/14
• US Dollar Index 78.08 +2.90%
  
• Yield Curve 228.0 +12 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.79% +26 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.295 Trillion +.56%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.87 +.08%
• Illinois Municipal Credit Default Swap 280.0 +5.09%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 170.33 +2.82%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09% -1 basis point
  
• TED Spread 16.0 -1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.50 +8.48%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 108.10 +6.29%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 211.17 +10.92%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 260.0 unch.
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.788 Trillion +.45%
• Business Loans 607.30 +.28%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 446,500 -2.2%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.4% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.17% -7 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 833.30 +5.84%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -46 unch.
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% unch.
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon +.05/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 15.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 2,313 -7.29%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50 -5.56%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 231,078 -.70%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 93.50 -1.96%
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.53%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -2.53%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +2.96%
• Education +1.06%
• Energy +.86%
• Oil Service +.85%
• Hospitals +.47%

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -4.43%
• Internet -5.02%
• REITs -5.12%
  
• Defense -5.27%
• Disk Drives -5.29%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Hard-Landing Fears, Eurozone Debt Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Around Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 20.56 +10.30%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -29.46%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 +6.58%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.70 +88.50%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.50 bps +2.36%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 113.21 bps -2.41%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 170.33 bps -2.29%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.18 bps +3.62%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -8 bps
  
• TED Spread 16.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 226.0 +4 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $161.80/Metric Tonne +.50%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +36.0 +.1 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08% +6 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my Tech, Ag, Biotech and Medical long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short and took some profits in an Ag long
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish as the S&P 500 trades meaningfully lower despite a bounce in the euro, a decline in sovereign debt angst and a better US Consumer Confidence reading. On the positive side, Semi, Airline and Networking shares are holding up well. The Spain sovereign cds is declining -3.9%, the Portugal sovereign cds is down -6.1% and the Ireland sovereign cds is down -7.45%. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Service, Ag, Gold, Paper, Homebuilding and Gaming shares are under significant pressure, falling more than 2.50%. (XLF) has undperformed slightly. Small-cap and cyclical shares are underperforming, as well. Shanghai copper inventories are slightly higher again today. Copper is falling -3.51% and the S&P GSCI Ag Spot Index is plunging -5.74%. The China sovereign cds is jumping +5.3% and the Japan sovereign cds is gaining +4.5%. The Illinois and California municipal cds are up +3.04% and +3.0%, respectively. I suspect global equity investors are finally beginning to come to grips with some of the many negative consequences of the Fed's QE2 program. One such negative consequence is that the more quantitative easing the Fed does, the greater the odds of a hard-landing in China become as they hike rates to curtail their budding inflation problem. Moreover, long-term US interest rates are moving up too much as inflation expectations rise, which is defeating some of the main purpose of QE2. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on China hard-landing worries, more shorting, profit-taking, Eurozone debt worries and rising long-term rates.