Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Europe Local Authorities Have 1.5 Trillion-Euro Debt,Figaro Says. Local governments in 12 European countries will have 1.5 trillion euros ($1.83 trillion) in debt by the end of the year, Le Figaro reported, citing an estimate by Standard & Poor’s. Local authorities financing needs will rise 27 percent this year to 268 billion euros, including 71 billion euros in Spain’s autonomous regions, the newspaper said, citing S&P. Local authorities in Italy need to borrow 6.5 billion euros and in the U.K. 25 billion euros, Figaro said.
• Spain to Urge More Regional Budget Cuts as Deficit Deepens. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro will urge Spain’s regions today to deepen budget cuts as support to prevent their defaulting has worsened the central government’s finances. Representatives of Spain’s 17 semi-autonomous regional governments are scheduled to convene in Madrid at 4:30 p.m. for a budget checkup. Montoro yesterday said the central government’s budget deficit widened in the first half to about 4 percent from 3.41 percent in January through May. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has asked the regions to implement most of Spain’s planned budget-deficit reduction this year after they overshot last year’s target by more than 100 percent. That left Spain’s budget gap, the euro area’s third-largest, almost unchanged from 2010 at 8.9 percent. This year’s target, which includes all levels of government, is 6.3 percent.
• IMF Predicts Euro Crisis Resolution Will Be Prolonged. The International Monetary Fund said today that the euro-area debt crisis has exacerbated global financial instability and an orderly adjustment process is likely to be prolonged and costly. The Washington-based IMF’s assessment came today in a pilot report intended to make external monitoring more effective. The IMF announced changes to its surveillance of members’ economies to better account for the effects of their domestic and financial policies on other countries. “Unsustainably large intra-euro area imbalances were part of the global boom-bust cycle, and the failure to resolve the euro-area crisis is causing heightened stresses that are spilling over to other countries,” the IMF said.
• Used Lamborghinis Linger on Hong Kong Lots Amid China Slowdown. Waiting lists for ultra-luxury cars in Hong Kong are getting shorter and used-car lots are cutting prices on Lamborghinis, Ferraris and Bentleys in the latest sign of China’s slowdown. Dealers of such second-hand cars say job cuts and the worsening global economic outlook are creating uncertainty among the finance-industry and expatriate professionals who make up the bulk of their buyers. Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Deutsche Bank AG are among firms with Asian headquarters in Hong Kong that are cutting jobs worldwide. “The more expensive the car, the more dry the business,” said Tommy Siu at the Causeway Bay showroom of Vin’s Motors Co., the used-car dealership he founded two decades ago. Sales of ultra-luxury cars have halved in the past two or three months, he said. “A lot of bankers don’t want to spend too much money for a car now. At this moment, they don’t know if they’ll have a big bonus.”
• Chinese Deals Meet Growing Scrutiny as Suntech(STP) Sparks Questions. Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP)’s admission that it may have failed to verify the existence of German bonds it accepted as loan collateral adds to growing concerns about Chinese business practices that are sparking a wave of lawsuits and regulatory probes. It’s the third time in a week that internal controls at Chinese companies have been found lacking. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission froze assets of traders it accused of insider trading ahead of Cnooc Ltd. (883)’s $15.1 billion deal to acquire Nexen Inc. (NXY) And fund manager Peter Siris and his Guerrilla Capital Management agreed yesterday to pay more than $1.1 million to settle SEC allegations of “wide-ranging misconduct” related to a Chinese reverse-merger firm.
• Most Chinese Stocks Decline on Growth Concern; B Shares Tumble. Most Chinese stocks declined amid concern the slowing economy will hurt earnings growth. Foreign- currency denominated B shares tumbled for a fifth day. Kama Co. led declines by B shares on concern companies trading close to their face value may be delisted. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) added 0.2 percent to 2,112.78 as of 10:20 a.m. local time, with more than three stocks falling for each one that rose. The gauge has fallen 14 percent from this year’s high on March 2. “If 2,100 gives way, which looks likely, it warns that the 1,665 low seen in late 2008 will not only be tested but should be broken,” Thomas Schroeder, a Bangkok-based managing director at Chart Partners, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. “I have targets at 1,700 and then near the 1,500 region upon a breach of the 2008 low.” The Shanghai B-Share Stock Price Index plunged 3.4 percent to 198.51, poised for the lowest close since Sept. 30, 2009.
• Korea Output Unexpectedly Falls as Europe Caps Demand. South Korea’s industrial production fell for the first time in three months in June as Europe’s debt crisis and China’s slowing economy curtailed export demand. Output fell 0.4 percent last month from May when it climbed a revised 1.3 percent, Statistics Korea said today. The median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.1 percent gain. Production rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier.
• Taiwan Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks as Europe Hurts Exports. Taiwan’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter amid a faltering global recovery, prompting the government to cut its growth forecast. Gross domestic product fell 0.16 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier after expanding 0.39 percent in the previous quarter, according to preliminary data released by the statistics bureau in Taipei today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists was for growth of 0.5 percent. The economy last contracted in 2009.
• Central Banks’ Unorthodox Actions Are Cutting Lending. The unintended consequences of financial policy intervention are providing fresh evidence for chaos theory’s idea that the flap of a butterfly’s wings can spark a tornado on the other side of the world. Five years into the age of deleveraging, financial markets have become addicted to central bank intervention, from the U.S. Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank and beyond, aimed at stimulating growth. Markets anticipate further action, with the Fed, ECB and Bank of England committees meeting on monetary policy this week. But no flap of a central banker’s wings goes quite as expected. Take China’s heroic 2008-2009 stimulus program, which helped fight back a global recession. It also led to huge overinvestment and bad debt, and the policy is now viewed by many economists as an error. Similarly, the ECB’s long-term multibillion-euro refinancing operation, announced in December 2011, saved Europe’s banking system from a funding crisis. But it created a dangerous web of links between an overleveraged banking sector and already indebted sovereigns. Official lending rates are close to zero, and their manipulation, the traditional mainstay of monetary policy, is effectively impotent. The new go-to tool for central bankers, quantitative easing, is suffering from declining marginal returns.
• Bank of America(BAC), Barclays(BCS), Credit Suisse(CS) Sued Over Libor. Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse Group AG were among the banks sued by an investor over alleged manipulation of the Libor benchmark interest rate. The investor, 33-35 Green Pond Road Associates LLC, bought an interest rate swap with a floating rate tied to the U.S.- dollar Libor, it said in a complaint filed today in federal court in Manhattan. Green Pond Road seeks to represent a class of investors that bought U.S. dollar Libor-based derivatives beginning on Aug. 1, 2007.
• U.S. Drought May Limit China Rate-Cut Space: Chart of the Day. China's central bank may have less room to cut interest rates as inflation is imported from the U.S. in the form of soybeans and corn to feed the nation's pigs. "Pork-induced inflation may rear its ugly head again if global agricultural commodities prices, especially soybean and corn, continue to be drive up by the worst drought in the U.S. in more than five decades," said Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. "That may limit China's space for monetary easing." Corn futures prices jumped about 61% as of yesterday from mid-June, while soybean futures costs climbed about 24% in the U.S. China's inflation may rebound starting in the fourth quarter, with the central bank likely to raise interest rates next year, according to Zhang, who previously worked for the IMF. The boost to the inflation rate from higher global grain prices could reach 1 percentage point, Societe Generale SA economists including Yao Wei in Hong Kong wrote in a July 26 report. Almost 90% of the variation in China's domestic pork prices can be explained by global prices of corn, with a lag of about three months, and soybeans, with a half-year lag, the economists said.
• Grain Cargoes Seen Slowing Most in 19 Years on Drought: Freight. The worst U.S. drought in more than a half century and dry weather from Europe to Australia will mean the biggest contraction in grain cargoes for 19 years and unprofitable rates for owners of Supramax commodity carriers. Global trade in grains will drop 4.9% in the 2012-13 marketing year, according to the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Forward freight agreements, handled by brokers and used to bet on future costs, anticipate a fourth-quarter rate of $9,117 a day, 17% less than now, Baltic Exchange data show.
• Gun-Control Views Unchanged After Shooting, Says Pew Poll. The July 26-29 survey found that 47 percent of Americans say controlling guns is the priority, while 46 percent say it’s more important to protect the right to own guns. That is little changed from an April poll, when 45 percent placed the most importance on gun control and 49 percent on gun rights.
• Apple(AAPL) Said to Prepare IPhone Redesign for Sept. 12 Introduction. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is preparing to introduce the next version of the iPhone on Sept. 12 in what will be a design overhaul of its top-selling product, according to two people with knowledge of the company’s plans.
• Rubber Demand in China Set to Contract 5% as Truck Sales Tumble. Natural-rubber demand in China, the world's largest user, may drop this year as slumping truck sales and slowing economic growth cut sales of heavy-duty tires, according to the country's biggest maker.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Stephen Moore: The Man Who Saved Capitalism. Milton Friedman, who would have turned 100 on Tuesday, helped to make free markets popular again in the 20th century. His ideas are even more important today.

Barron's:

• Seagate Technology(STX) Off 7%: FYQ4 Misses, Q1 View Weak. Disk drive and storage products maker Seagate Technology (STX) this afternoon reported fiscal Q4 revenue and profit per share that missed analysts’ expectations and was in keeping with a warning provided back on July 5th.

Business Insider:

• Cities In California Are Declaring Bankruptcy To Avoid Governor Brown's Tax Increases.
• Glenn Beck's 'Restoring' Love Rally Proves The Tea Party Isn't Dead.
• Don't Believe In The Central Banking Theater Of The Absurd.
• Eight Countries Where It's Scary To Be A Christian.
• 3 Million Of America's Most Vulnerable Homeowners Are On The Brink Of Foreclosure.

Zero Hedge:

• Treasury Admits It Underestimated Debt Needs, Predicts Ceiling Breach In 2012; $600 Billion More Debt In Second Half.
• Mapping The Real Chinese Economy From The Bottom-Up.
• The Reality Of The Rest Of Draghi's 'Believe-Me' Speech.

CNBC:

• Talk of German Exit Dragging Euro to $1.16: Chartist.

NY Times:

• Doctor Shortage Likely to Worsen With ObamaCare. The Association of American Medical Colleges estimates that in 2015 the country will have 62,900 fewer doctors than needed. And that number will more than double by 2025, as the expansion of insurance coverage and the aging of baby boomers drive up demand for care.
• Some at Fed Are Urging Pre-Emptive Stimulus. Central bankers generally set policy based on their judgment about the most likely path for the nation’s economy. But Mr. Greenspan argued that the Fed sometimes should do more than its forecast suggested, buttressing the economy against large, potential risks. He described such moves as “taking out insurance.” On the eve of the Fed’s policy-making committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, members who favor additional action argued that the likely path of the economy was itself sufficient reason for action. The committee predicted in June that without new measures unemployment would fall slightly, if at all, in the second half of the year. But officials, including the Fed’s vice chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, have sought to reinforce the case for action by arguing that the Fed also should seek to offset the looming risk that a European meltdown will set off a global financial crisis, or that a failure to dismantle the potential year-end fiscal cliff of government spending cuts and tax increases will tip the economy back into recession.
• Tiger Management Helps Next-Generation Funds.

Washington Post:

• Congressional Leaders Near Budget Deal to Keep Government Running. House and Senate leaders are nearing a temporary spending deal that would keep the federal government running for the first half of the next fiscal year, which will begin in October, aides in both parties said Monday, an effort to avoid the specter of a messy government shutdown fight on the eve of the November election.
• As ‘fiscal cliff’ looms, debate over pre-Election Day layoff notices heats up. The deep federal spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the start of next year may trigger dismissal notices for tens of thousands of employees of government contractors, companies and analysts say, and the warnings may start going out at a particularly sensitive time: Days before the presidential election.

CME Group:

• Hedge Funds Remain Anxious Over AIFMD.

AP:

• Dems move to formally back gay marriage. The Democratic Party is moving to include support for gay marriage in the official party platform for the first time, a Democratic official said Monday, marking a key milestone for advocates of same-sex unions. The party's platform drafting committee voted to include language backing gay marriage during a weekend meeting in Minneapolis, the official said. Democratic delegates will formally approve the platform during the party convention in Charlotte, N.C., in early September.

Reuters:

• Dendreon(DNDN) to close New Jersey plant, cut 600 jobs. Money-losing biotech Dendreon Corp said it would close one of its three manufacturing plants and cut more than 600 full-time and contractor jobs over the next 12 months, with the aim of reducing annual costs by about $150 million a year. Dendreon had about 1,475 employees as of February 23, 2012, according to a regulatory filing.

RTTNews.com:

• Humana(HUM) Shares Down 9% As Q2 Results Miss Estimates, Weak Outlook. Shares of Humana, Inc. dropped nearly 9 percent in extended trade on Monday after the health insurer reported results for the second quarter that missed analysts' expectations. The company also provided earnings guidance for the third quarter, well below Street view, and lowered its earnings guidance for the full-year 2012, while maintaining annual revenue forecast.

Telegraph:

• Temptations of a Peseta default in Spain. Defying charges of heresy, Spanish economist Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quiros has penned a piece in El Mundo that more or less calls for Spanish withdrawal from the euro – unless Mario Draghi conjurs up real magic at the ECB. My rough summary/translation:

Today Online:

• Singapore's GIC Says Outlook Remains Challenging. The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) said yesterday that the investment outlook remained challenging, with the global economy struggling to return to sustainable growth, as it reported an unchanged annualised 20-year real rate of return of 3.9 per cent for the fiscal year ended March 31. "The developed economies will continue to be weighed down by an extended period of debt-deleveraging. In Europe, the debt crisis has spread beyond the periphery to the larger Spanish and Italian economies," GIC Group Chief Investment Officer Ng Kok Song said in its latest annual report released yesterday. "In the United States, the fragile economic recovery could be aborted by automatic spending cuts and tax increases if political gridlock continues beyond the 2012 elections with no compromise on a long-term plan for reducing the public deficit. Growth in the emerging economies, particularly China, is also slowing," he added.

China Daily:

• China's economic growth is still "appropriate," citing a commentary by Zhu Jianhong.

Shanghai Securities News:

• The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering giving a 17% value-added tax rebate to domestic steelmakers that supply steel for export products, citing a person close to the ministry.

China Business News:

• The China Banking Regulatory Commission's Shanghai branch plans to conduct stress tests again for banks in the city in 2H, citing people familiar with the matter. Stress tests will involve property lending and liquidity risks. The regulator will also examine the classification of bank loans.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 159.0 -4.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 130.0 -6.5 basis points.
  
• FTSE-100 futures -.03%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (VLO)/1.43
• (X)/.49
• (GT)/.45
• (MLM)/1.00
• (REV)/.32
• (PFE)/.54
• (AET)/1.25
• (ADM)/.58
• (TRW)/1.55
• (DISCA)/.69
• (COH)/.85
• (CMI)/2.28
• (CBG)/.26
• (WBMD)/-.12
• (ALL)/.52
• (BMC)/.74
• (CECO)/.00
• (JLL)/1.24
• (EA)/-.42
• (AMG)/1.64

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in May.
• The PCE Core for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in 1Q.
  

9:00 am EST

• The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Composite(YoY) for May is estimated to fall -1.4% versus a -1.9% decline in April.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for July is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 52.9 in June.

10:00 am EST

• Consumer Confidence for July is estimated to fall to 61.5 versus 62.0 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (AZZ) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone unemployment data, China PMI Manufacturing Data, weekly retail sales reports, NAPM-Milwaukee for July, Keefe/Bruyette/Woods Community Bank Conference and the (PII) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Slightly into Final Hour on Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Global Growth Worries, Soaring Food Prices, US "Fiscal Cliff" Concerns

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  
• Volume: Slightly Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.90 +7.19%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +15.91%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -10.23%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.11 +304.58%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 106.35 bps +1.19%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 253.70 bps -5.3%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 255.11 -2.50%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 245.84 +.28%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.50 -1.75 basis points
  
• TED Spread 34.75 +.25 basis point
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.50 -6.5 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 127.0 -4 basis points
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $115.20/Metric Tonne -.86%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.0 +2.0 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
  

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts.
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as the S&P 500 trades near session lows on eurozone debt angst, soaring food prices, profit-taking, US "fiscal cliff" worries, earnings concerns and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, Coal and Construction shares are are especially strong, rising more than +1.0%. Oil is falling -.5%. Major Asian indices were mostly higher overnight, led by a +1.8% gain in India. However, the Shanghai Composite continues to sit out the global equity rally as it fell another -.9%. This index is now down -4.1% ytd and sits at its lowest level since March 2009, which is a big red flag for global investors. Major European indices are surging today, led by a +2.7% gain in Italian shares. The European Bank/Financial Services Index is jumping +3.0% today. Brazilian equities are rising +.6% today. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -3.8% to 70.37 bps, the France sovereign cds is falling -2.5% to 159.31 bps, the Italian sovereign cds is falling -2.4% to 484.25 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is falling -3.8% to 529.25 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is falling -2.8% to 133.21 bps. Moreover, the Spain 10Y Yld is falling -1.9% to 6.61%. On the negative side, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Steel, Software, Semi, Disk Drive, Bank, Biotech, Homebuilder and Education shares are especially weak, falling more than -1.0%. Tech shares have traded heavy throughout the day. The 10Y Yld is falling -5 bps to 1.5%. The UBS/Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is jumping another +1.9% today and is up +27.5% in about 2 months. The benchmark China Iron/Ore Spot Index is falling another -.9% today and is down -6.8% in 5 days(-36.4% since 9/7/12). There were more hawkish comments from Chinese officials over the weekend regarding their real estate bubble and the China Iron & Steel Association reported inventory at 76 key steelmakers now totals 12.5m tons versus 11.8m tons in early July. Moreover, the China Hot Rolled Steel Sheet Spot Index(graph) continues to weaken. Despite their recent bounces off the lows, the euro, copper and lumber all continue to trade poorly given equity investor perceptions that global central bank stimuli will boost economic growth in the near future. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is rising +2.1% to 465.24 bps and the Italian 10Y Yld is gaining +1.2% to 6.03%. US weekly retail sales have decelerated to a sluggish rate at +1.7%, which is the slowest since the week of Feb. 2, 2010. US Trucking Traffic continues to soften. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, while showing some improvement recently, is still around early-Sept. levels. Lumber is -4.0% since its March 1st high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite investor perceptions of a big improvement in the nationwide housing market. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -55.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -45.0% ytd. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +90.0% ytd. Oil tanker rates have plunged recently, with the benchmark Middle East-to-US voyage down to 25.0 industry-standard worldscale points, which is the lowest since Oct. 2009. The CRB Commodities Index is now down -17.3% since May 2nd of last year despite the recent surge in food prices. The 10Y T-Note continues to trade too well. There still appears to be a high level of complacency among US investors regarding the deteriorating macro backdrop. It remains unclear to me whether or not Germany will put its own balance sheet on the line to save the euro even as investors appear to be pricing this outcome into stocks. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index is at -66.50 points, which is near the lowest since mid-Sept. of last year. Massive tax hikes and spending cuts are still yet to hit in several key eurozone countries that are already in recession. A lack of competitiveness remains unaddressed. The European debt crisis is also really beginning to bite emerging market economies now, which will further pressure exports from the region and further raise the odds of more sovereign/bank downgrades. Uncertainty surrounding the effects on business of Obamacare, the "US fiscal cliff " and the election outcome uncertainty will likely become more and more of a focus for investors as the year progresses. Little if anything being discussed by global central bankers will actually boost global economic growth in any meaningful way, in my opinion. Thus, recent market p/e multiple expansion is creating an unstable situation for equities, which could become a big problem this fall unless a significant macro catalyst materializes soon. In further evidence that the Fed’s ZIRP is pushing institutional investors too far out on the risk spectrum, subprime auto lending is soaring. Moreover, auto stocks trade very poorly given this fact and the current economic “recovery”, which is a red flag for the health of the industry longer-term. For this year's equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see a resumption in European credit gauge improvement, a subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on eurozone debt angst, tech sector weakness, profit-taking, soaring food prices, earnings worries, US "fiscal cliff" concerns and rising global growth fears.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• European Stocks Rise on Euro Support Pledge. European stocks rose to their highest level since April amid optimism the European Central Bank will win support from policy makers for a plan to ease the euro area’s debt crisis. Air France-KLM Group (AF) surged 19 percent after it posted a narrower second-quarter loss. Evraz (EVR) Plc and Fiat SpA (F) climbed more than 4.5 percent, leading rallies by gauges of commodity producers and automakers. JCDecaux SA (DEC) plunged 6.9 percent as it reported a 13 percent drop in first-half profit.
• German Banks’ Net Loans to Weak Euro-Area Nations Drops, FT Says. Net lending by German banks to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain fell by 55 billion euros ($68 billion) to 241 billion euros in the first five months of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing an analysis of Bundesbank figures by Morgan Stanley. The total now is the lowest since 2005, the newspaper said.
• European Bank Regulator Imperiled By German Zombie Banks. Germany’s regulator balked last year when the European Banking Authority conducted stress tests on financial firms, objecting to the agency’s definition of capital and allowing one state-owned lender to withhold some results. The refusal to go along with the European Union regulator reflects an aversion by governments to ceding control to a central authority that may doom talks about creating a banking union and thwart plans to shift the burden of bailing out Spanish and Irish lenders to other euro-area nations. “Germany didn’t let the EBA dictate any terms to its troubled banks, why would it now hand over controls to a new regulator?” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy Ltd., a London consulting firm specializing in sovereign-credit risk. “The prospects of a new central authority are shaky at best.”
• Euro-Area Economic Confidence Drops More Than Forecast. Economic confidence in the euro area fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in almost three years in July, suggesting the economy’s slump extended into the third quarter as governments struggled to tame the debt crisis. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in 17-nation euro area dropped to 87.9 from 89.9 in June, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the lowest since September 2009. Economists had forecast a drop to 88.9, the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.
• India Inflation Is Major Challenge as Growth Slows, RBI Says. Indian inflation is a major challenge for monetary policy even as economic expansion remains weak, the Reserve Bank of India said. Threats to the economy “have been amplified by decelerating global trade and domestic supply constraints,” the central bank said today ahead of its rate decision in Mumbai tomorrow. At the same time, “persistent inflation limits the space for monetary policy to revive growth.” Governor Duvvuri Subbarao faces inflation above 7 percent even with expansion at a nine-year low, curbing his scope to join a stimulus drive extending from China to Europe.
• China's Stocks Decline to March 2009 Low on Earnings Concerns. China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index down to the lowest level since March 2009, as concern earnings growth is slowing overshadowed speculation European policy makers will take action to ease the debt crisis. China Cosco Holdings Co. (601919), the nation’s largest publicly traded shipping company, slumped to a record low after saying it expects its first-half loss to widen from a year ago. China Life Insurance Co. sank to the lowest in four weeks on speculation flood claims in Beijing will hurt profits. A gauge of B shares slid to a two-year low on concern more companies face delisting. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.9 percent to 2,109.91 at the close.
• China Keeps Buying Iran's Oil as U.S. and EU Intensify Sanctions. Oil tankers able to haul at least 20 million barrels of Iranian crude signaled for China in July, highlighting one of the challenges the U.S. and Europe face as they pressure the Persian Gulf state over its nuclear program. At least 10 very large crude carriers controlled by Tehran- based NITC signaled for ports in the world’s largest energy consuming nation this month, according to IHS Inc. (IHS) data compiled by Bloomberg. Each has the capacity to carry about 2 million barrels. Six signaled they were sailing to China today, adding to four that did so July 3, marking the largest monthly tally since Bloomberg began compiling snapshots of the company’s fleet in April. The latest delivery will be Aug. 20.
• July Cargoes on Panamax Ships Slump as China Coal Demand Falls. The number of cargoes booked on Panamax bulk carriers, the largest to transit the Panama Canal, slumped 33 percent in July amid slowing Chinese imports of thermal coal, used for power stations, Morgan Stanley said. There were 151 new cargoes reported for Panamax ships in July, compared with 224 for the same period 12 months ago and 174 in each of the previous two months, according to an e-mailed report today from Morgan Stanley analysts including New York- based Fotis Giannakoulis. Monthly bookings, known as fixtures in the industry, gained for the larger Capesize vessels in July compared with the previous two months, even as rates to hire the ships slumped. “Panamax fixtures continue to decline as China’s thermal coal demand is softening,” the U.S. investment bank said in the report, citing a slowing economy and growing hydropower output. “The weakness of the freight market is rapidly moving towards the smaller vessels that until recently seemed decoupled.” The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity freight costs for four vessel sizes, dropped 1.9 percent to 915, the lowest since June 14, according to the Baltic Exchange.
• Subprime Auto ABS Grows as Lenders Chase Margins: Credit Markets. Sales of bonds tied to payments on subprime car loans are accelerating at the fastest pace in five years as investors seek high yields amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows until mid-2015. Led by Santander Consumer USA, issuance of $10 billion this year in asset-backed debt linked to vehicle loans to borrowers with spotty credit records compares with $8.2 billion in the same period of 2011, according to Barclays Plc.
• Copper Drops on Economic Concerns Before Central Bankers Meet. Copper fell for the first time in four sessions as investors awaited signals from central banks this week on bolstering the faltering global economy. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is attempting to build consensus for a plan to ease euro-area borrowing costs amid the region’s debt crisis. Federal Reserve policy makers meet before a U.S. employment report that may show the pace of hiring in July failed to reduce the jobless rate. “A lot of people are taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the meetings and the payrolls report,” Adam Klopfenstein, a market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Copper will rally if we get an agreement out of Europe, but the market needs to see it. The table is set, but they’re waiting for the meal to be served.” Copper futures for September delivery declined 0.3 percent to settle at $3.416 a pound at 1:14 p.m. on the Comex in New York.
• Colorado Shooting Suspect Charged With 24 Murder Counts. James Holmes, the suspect in a mass shooting at a Colorado movie theater earlier this month, was charged with 24 counts of first degree murder and 116 counts of attempted first degree murder at a state court hearing in Centennial, a Denver suburb. First degree murder can be punishable by death under Colorado law, and multiple counts can be tied to individual murders, depending on state statute. Twelve people died and at least 58 were injured when theatergoers were attacked July 20 during a midnight showing of the Batman movie “The Dark Knight Rises.”
  
• India Restores Power to 360 Million People After Grid Collapse. India resumed power supplies to most of the 360 million people plunged into darkness by the worst grid failure in a decade, an outage that shut transport networks, triggered commuter chaos and halted water supplies. “Power supply has been restored to all states and the situation is near normal now,” Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd.’s projects director I.S. Jha said by phone. “We will have complete normalcy once thermal plants resume complete generation.” Jha said Power Grid had bought power from the eastern and western regions to reconnect services.

CNBC.com:

• CB & I(CBI) to Buy Shaw Group(SHAW) for $3 Billion. Engineering company Chicago Bridge & Iron said Monday it will buy Shaw Group for about $3 billion in cash and stock to create a big engineering and construction company focused on the energy industry. Netherlands-based CB&I offered $46 per share — $41 in cash and $5 in stock — a premium of 72 percent to Shaw's closing price on Friday, the companies said.
• Spain Recession Deepens, New Austerity to Take Effect. Spain slid deeper into recession in the second quarter as a tough new round of austerity to head off the budget crisis that threatens the euro took effect both on overall demand and the price consumers have to pay for goods.
• Monetary Policy Role in EU Debt Crisis Limited: Zoellick. As markets eagerly await a decision from the European Central Bank (ECB), which holds its policy meeting on Thursday, Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, warned that monetary easing will do little to solve the region’s debt crisis.
• Is Thriftiness From the Rich Hurting the Economy?
• Big Banks Are Getting Tough With Hedge-Fund Clients. Major banks face growing pressure to extract more money from, or even sever ties with, unprofitable hedge-fund clients as they cut costs in the face of tough trading conditions and try to refocus on the biggest managers.

Business Insider:

• MORGAN STANLEY: Here's Our Grim Outlook For Europe's Key Economies.

Zero Hedge:

• Moody's: "The ECB Can Do No More Than Buy Time".
• Dallas Fed Plunges Most In Over 7 Years To 10 Month Low; With Biggest Miss In 14 Months. (graph)
• The Unbearable 'Factual' Lightness Of The Chinese Economy.
• EU Ombudsman To Probe Mario Draghi's Conflicts Of Interest.

Rasmussen Reports:

• 55% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 41% who Strongly Favor repeal. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose repeal, with 30% who are Strongly Opposed.
  

Reuters:

• German coalition member urges "unusual" legal action vs ECB. A member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner said the German government should consider the "unusual step" of taking legal action against the European Central Bank over bond purchases. Joerg-Uwe Hahn, a regional leader of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), is an outsider in his party and often critical of its leaders but his comments highlight growing German unease about the costs of fighting the euro zone debt crisis. "The European treaties allow member states to sue the ECB," Hahn, a member of the ruling centre-right coalition in the state of Hesse, told Monday's edition of Die Welt newspaper, adding that Berlin should consider opening a lawsuit against the bank via the European Court of Justice.
• Fitch cuts Naples ratings, outlook negative.
• Suntech(STP) sees possible fraud; shares plunge to new lows. Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd said on Monday that its partner in a solar development fund might have defrauded it with a bogus collateral pledge of hundreds of millions of euros of German bonds, sending its shares to all-time lows. "We now suspect that the German government bonds may not have existed and Suntech may have been a victim of fraud," Chief Executive Officer Zhengrong Shi said on a conference call. Shares of China-based Suntech shares fell more than 15 percent to $1.33 on the New York Stock Exchange as investors feared the world's largest maker of solar panels would have try to tap debt markets to raise more than $500 million to refinance a bond obligation due next year.

Financial Times:

• European Political Unity Isn't a Crisis Tool, Issing Says in FT. A European political union, which implies the end of the nation-state, is impossible to achieve in the space of a few years, and cannot be a means of managing the current crisis, said Otmar Issing, a former chief economist of Germany's Bundesbank and of the European Central Bank. Writing in the FT, Issing said promising future political integration against requests for more money now is not a credible strategy; on the contrary, it would damage the idea of political union. Euro-area bonds, which would bring higher interest rates for government bonds in countries with hitherto sound financial reputations, imply the transfer of taxpayers' money in violation of the principle that there shall be no taxation without representation, and that is true of all forms of debt mutualization, Issing said. Measures that implicitly pre-empt the establishment of political union would involve huge financial risks for a few countries and undermine any identification of the people with the European idea, he said. The only alternative to the collapse of the eurozone lies in the principle of "no bailout," which means every country is responsible for its policies; financial help must be conditional and be extended at interest rates that don't weaken the will to reform, he concluded.
• Jobless generation puts brakes on US. The share of American 18- to 24-year-olds who were employed fell to 54 per cent last year, the lowest since the labour department began tracking data in 1948, according to the Pew Research Center. The share who are in college has risen, but the researchers say this only partly explains the drop. The jobless rate for Americans age 16 to 24 is above 16 per cent, more than twice the national rate.

Die Welt:

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shifted the onus of healing the debt crisis to the ECB, shirking responsibility for devising effective political policy, a lead of the country's main opposition party said in an interview. Social Democratic Party floor chief Frank-Walter Steinmeier said ECB President Mario Draghi took his cue to "do whatever if takes" to preserve the euro, a comment uttered on July 6, from a "signal" given by Merkel and other euro-area leaders when they met at a summit at the end of June. Merkel wanted to "palm off" taming the crisis onto the ECB, Steinmeier said.
  

YLE:

• Finland's Chancellor of Justice will examine whether the parliament's approval of the European Stability Mechanism took place legally.
  

Caixin:

• China 2012 property development investment growth may not reach 15%, citing Deng Yusong, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center. 3Q property development investment growth may continue to fall, citing Deng.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.73%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -3.42% 2) Oil Tankers -2.03% 3) Disk Drives -1.72%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• JCP, CRAY, EXK, CTXS, TSL, ATML, YOKU, CRM, CPN, LUFK, MELI, SLXP, CSTR, CPTS, LECO, LOPE, STRA, CTRP, PNRA, BWLD, CSGP, SINA, DISCA, MPWR, NXPI, LQDT, EQIX, MCY, DBD and AWI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OCZ 2) DRI 3) FITB 4) CRUS 5) SOHU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PHM 2) STP 3) AVP 4) BA 5) STRA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.15%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +.79% 2) Utilities +.29% 3) Telecom +.27%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QLGC, SPIL, SHAW and ROP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARO 2) SAN 3) SHAW 4) JBLU 5) CVC
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DE 2) NOC 3) ACI 4) WMT 5) SHAW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Draghi on Offensive as Game Changer Sought in Crisis Battle. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has gone on the offensive as he seeks a game changer in the battle against the sovereign debt crisis. Draghi, who sparked a global market rally last week by pledging to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, is trying to build consensus among governments and central bankers for a plan to ease borrowing costs in Spain and Italy before ECB policy makers convene on Aug. 2. He meets with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Frankfurt today and is also attempting to win over Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a critic of ECB bond purchases.
• Merkel Ally Meister Rules Out More Aid for Greece, FAS Reports. Greece shouldn’t get additional financial aid, according to Michael Meister, the deputy leader in parliament of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported. Greece’s problem is its government’s inability to carry out domestic changes, the newspaper cited Meister as saying in an interview. While advising against Greece being forced to exit the euro region, Meister called it “very difficult” to rebuild the country’s ability to pay its bills, FAS reported in a preview of an article for tomorrow’s edition.
• France’s Hollande Lays Dodo Bird Egg With First Budget. On Wednesday, France will become the first European country to impose a tax on financial transactions. This was a bad idea in the past; it’s a worse one now. As the most significant fiscal measure to be enacted thus far by the Socialist government of President Francois Hollande, it’s also a disturbing sign. The 0.2 percent tax, loosely modeled on the ideas of the U.S. economist James Tobin, will be applied to the purchase of shares in 109 French companies with market capitalizations of more than 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion). A similar levy will be imposed on high-frequency trading and so-called naked sovereign credit-default swaps. A Bloomberg News report recently showed that the tax is larded with loopholes, and the expected revenue is negligible: 170 million euros in 2012 and 500 million euros next year. At worst, it will frighten away investment and curb needed growth; at best, it is a distraction from the heavy lifting that Europe’s second-largest economy must do to revive.
• European Banking Regulator Imperiled by Zombie Banks in Germany. Germany's regulator balked last year when the European Banking Authority conducted stress tests on financial firms, objecting to the agency's definition of capital and allowing one state-owned lender to withhold some results. The refusal to go along with the European Union regulator reflects an aversion by governments to ceding control to a central authority that may doom talks about creating a banking union and thwart plans to shift the burden of bailing out Spanish and Irish lenders to other euro-area nations. "Germany didn't let the EBA dictate any terms to its troubled banks, why would it now hand over controls to a new regulator?" said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy Ltd., a London consulting firm specializing in sovereign-credit risk. "The prospects of a new central authority are shaky at best."
  
• Japan Industrial Output Falls: Economy. Production fell 0.1 percent in June from May, when it slid 3.4 percent, Japan’s Trade Ministry said today. The median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.5 percent gain.
  
• South Korea Manufacturer Confidence Drops to 3-Year Low. South Korean manufacturers’ confidence dropped to the lowest level in more than three years as Europe’s worsening fiscal crisis damped sentiment in a country where exports make up about half the economy. An index measuring expectations for August was at 70, the lowest level since May 2009, after dropping from a revised 81 in July, the Bank of Korea said in a statement in Seoul today. A measure of expectations at non-manufacturing companies also dropped to 69 from a revised 76.
• Most Chinese Stocks Fall on Earnings Concern; China Cosco Drops. Most Chinese stocks fell as concern earnings growth is slowing overshadowed speculation European Union policy makers will take action to ease the debt crisis. China Cosco Holdings Co. (601919) slumped the most in three weeks after saying it expects its first-half loss to widen from a year ago. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. rose 0.5 percent as it was named among “high quality beta stocks” by Nomura Holdings Inc. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) gained 0.1 percent to 2,131.7 as of 10:51 a.m. local time. About two stocks declined for each one that fell. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) rose 0.6 percent to 2,362.36. The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, climbed by the most in a month on July 27. “Second-quarter earnings for companies are really quite bad and are dragging on the market,” said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities Co. in Chengdu. “People have accepted that fact now, and eyes are on whether they will improve next quarter. Europe leaders’ pledge to protect the euro will boost confidence but we need to see concrete measures before the market can stabilize.” The Shanghai Composite has fallen 4.2 percent in July, poised for the third month of declines. It has fallen 13 percent from this year’s high on March 2 amid concern the economic slowdown is deepening and Europe’s debt crisis is worsening. Europe is China’s largest export market, making up 18 percent of the nation’s overseas sales, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.
• Chinese ’Nationalistic’ Education Draws Protesters in Hong Kong. Tens of thousands of parents, students and social activists marched through Hong Kong yesterday to oppose plans for national education lessons that detractors say will stifle independent thinking.
• SEC Freezes Trader Assets in Probe of Cnooc-Nexen Deal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission obtained a court order to freeze assets of traders who allegedly reaped more than $13 million by trading illegally ahead of Cnooc Ltd. (883)’s announcement that it would buy Nexen Inc. Hong Kong-based Well Advantage Limited and other unknown traders stockpiled shares of Nexen based on confidential information about the deal, the SEC said in a July 27 statement announcing a complaint filed at federal court in Manhattan. The court order froze about $38 million in assets, the SEC said.
• Hedge Funds Add Wagers in Longest Streak Since 2009: Commodities. Hedge funds raised commodity bets in the longest bullish streak in three years as speculation that policy makers will increase economic stimulus drove prices toward the biggest monthly rally since October. Money managers raised their net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 3.4 percent to 1.17 million contracts in the week ended July 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Wagers gained for seven weeks, the longest increase since June 2009. Corn bets climbed to the highest since September 2011, and traders are the most bullish on natural gas since October 2006. Investors added bets even as commodities fell 0.4 percent in the week to July 24.
• Subprime Auto ABS Grows as Lenders Chase Margins: Credit Markets. Sales of bonds tied to payments on subprime car loans are accelerating at the fastest pace in five years as investors seek high yields amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows until mid-2015. Led by Santander Consumer USA, issuance of $10 billion this year in asset-backed debt linked to vehicle loans to borrowers with spotty credit records compares with $8.2 billion in in the same period of 2011, according to Barclays Plc. Sales are surging with the central bank holding its benchmark rate near zero to spur growth. Investors are seeking riskier assets to generate returns as private-equity firms such as Blackstone Group LP and Perella Weinberg Partners are drawn to the high profit margins in subprime auto lending. "There is broad-based demand for any reasonably safe bond that offers any meaningful amount of yield," said Harris Trifon, a debt analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York. Investors are realizing that "interest rates may remain extraordinarily low for years to come," he said.
• Obama Advisers Project $1.2 Trillion Deficit for 2012. The Obama administration forecast the federal budget deficit will be $1.21 trillion this year, down from $1.33 trillion projected in February, as gridlock in Congress slows government spending. The national unemployment rate will average 8 percent for the year, the president’s Office of Management and Budget said in an annual update of its budget projections. The updated figures were released yesterday amid a presidential election campaign in which the economy is the dominant issue. Economic growth from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of this year is projected to be 2.6 percent, according to the OMB’s mid-session review. While that’s lower than what the administration said it expected in February, it remains higher than the forecasts of private economists.
• Facebook(FB) Stock Plunge Slashes $34 Billion of Market Value. Facebook Inc. has lost about $34 billion in market value since its May initial public offering, as the operator of the world’s largest social-networking service fails to assuage concerns about how it can make more money from almost a billion users. Facebook’s stock dropped 12 percent yesterday, its biggest one-day loss on record, after its first quarterly earnings report as a public company. That brought the plunge to 38 percent since the May 17 debut, which at $16 billion was the largest ever for a technology company.
• AT&T(T) Boosts Stock Buybacks by $11.1 Billion as Profit Climbs. AT&T Inc., the biggest U.S. telephone company, said its board authorized a repurchase of as much as $11.1 billion in stock, doubling a buyback program the company announced in December 2010. The effort will include as many as 300 million shares, or about 5 percent of the stock outstanding, Dallas-based AT&T said yesterday in a statement. The 2010 buyback plan also amounted to as many as 300 million.
• Solyndra Files Plan to Reorganize in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Solyndra LLC, the solar-panel maker that received a $535 million U.S. Energy Department loan guarantee for seeking bankruptcy protection, filed a Chapter 11 reorganization plan. The plan provides for holders of allowed administrative expenses and priority claims to be paid in full, and assets of Solyndra will be vested in the Solyndra Residual Trust, according to a filing yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware. Holders of Solyndra’s general unsecured claims, valued at $50 million to $120 million, are expected to recover from 2.5 percent to 6 percent, according to a disclosure statement filed with the plan.
• Miners Should Cut Back Spending as Prices Fall, AFI Says. Australian Foundation Investment Co. (AFI), a fund owning shares in BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group, said it would encourage companies to cut back on investments in new operations as commodity prices fall. Mining companies will start to question the economics of projects as prices fall and costs rise, Ross Barker, chief executive officer of the listed Melbourne-based fund with a market value of A$4.5 billion ($4.7 billion), told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s Inside Business program. “That is obviously something we would encourage because we don’t want to spend large amounts of money and not get good returns.”
• Republican Senator Says Obama ’Outsourced’ Syria Policy. President Barack Obama’s administration has turned over leadership on the escalating conflict in Syria to other countries and hasn’t strengthened the U.S. relationship with Israel, Senator Kelly Ayotte said today. The Obama administration has “outsourced leadership to the United Nations” on Syria, Ayotte, a New Hampshire Republican who serves on the Armed Services Committee, said today on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. Ayotte also criticized the administration’s record on Israel, which says it’s threatened by the possible development of weapons from Iran’s nuclear program.
• Syria Pounds Rebels in Aleppo as 200,000 Flee Fighting. Syrian troops backing President Bashar al-Assad stepped up their assault on rebels in Aleppo, prompting U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to predict that Assad’s use of “indiscriminate violence” will hasten the regime’s collapse. Government forces killed at least 120 people yesterday, mainly in Aleppo, the nation’s commercial hub, and Damascus, the capital, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an activist group. Syrian opposition fighters have seized eight neighborhoods in Aleppo and the road leading to the Turkish border, while the Syrian army resumed pounding the city with heavy weapons, according to Al Jazeera television. About 200,000 people have fled Aleppo and nearby areas in the past two days, Valerie Amos, the United Nations’ top humanitarian affairs official, said in a statement yesterday. The security situation in cities and along main transport routes is making it very difficult for humanitarian agencies to reach displaced families, she said.
• Chinese City Halts Waste Project After Thousands Protest. Authorities in eastern China scrapped plans for a pipeline to discharge waste from a paper mill into the sea after a protest by thousands of residents turned violent. The mayor of Nantong in Jiangsu province said on July 28 the project would be permanently canceled, a day after the vice mayor of Qidong, a lower-level coastal city where the demonstration took place, pledged to suspend construction of the pipeline from a paper factory run by a venture of Japan’s Oji Paper Co. The unrest was the latest in a series of confrontations between local governments and residents over pollution concerns linked to industrial projects.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Says Afghans Abandoned Police Bases. Inspectors from a U.S. government watchdog agency discovered that several American-funded border police bases in Afghanistan have been largely abandoned or left unoccupied, raising questions about the coming hand-over of security duties to local forces. Among other findings, inspectors found that one base, Lal Por 2, wasn't being used by Afghan border forces because it had no water supply, a report due out Monday states. A second, Nazyan, "may soon be uninhabitable" because of shoddy construction that caused sewage overflow.
• Romney Talks Tough. He Defends Israel's Right to Prevent Iran Nuclear Weapon. Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney signaled a tougher approach to Iran's nuclear ambitions, telling Israelis on Sunday that "no option should be excluded," including the use of military force. Keeping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons should be America's "highest national security priority," Mr. Romney said in a speech set against the backdrop of Jerusalem's Old City. "We recognize Israel's right to defend itself, and that it is right for America to stand with you."
• Bank Breakups: Not So Fast. Long before Sanford Weill suggested last week that big banks should split up, Bank of America Corp. executives and directors considered the idea and then decided against it, said people close to the nation's second-biggest bank by assets. While the Charlotte, N.C., company's exploration of a possible breakup in 2010 and 2011 came and went, it illustrates the powerful and contradictory forces buffeting giant financial companies even as the financial crisis recedes.
• New York Lender Files Libor Lawsuit. In the latest sign of the potential legal vulnerability facing banks ensnared in the world-wide probe of interest-rate manipulation, a New York lender alleges in a lawsuit that it was cheated out of interest income because rates on loans tied to Libor were "artificially" depressed. The lawsuit effectively argues that the alleged manipulation short-changed lenders by helping borrowers pay less for mortgages and other loans.
• U.S. Profit Streak Hit by Global Weakness.
• North-South Divide Marks Euro's Struggle. In Portugal, Finland, Two Different Views of Financial Crisis.

Business Insider:

• The ECB Is On A Collision Course With The Bundesbank.
• 11 Incredible Charts On Pennsylvania's Booming Shale Energy Industry.
• Iran Is Readying A 'Nightmare Scenario' For The US Navy.
• Mario Draghi Is Either Blind Or Bluffing.

Zero Hedge:

• Snow White Dumps Prince Charming.
• September: Crunchtime For Europe And Germany.
• Did The Market Remove Its Own QE Punchbowl?
• Biggest EPS Miss Since Lehman, And This Time It's Not The Tsunami's Fault.

CNBC:

• US Oil May Retest $100 as 'Stimulus Drums' Beat Louder: Survey. Oil prices will likely gain this week on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may announce additional stimulus to help boost an anemic recovery in the world's largest economy while markets are looking towards the European Central Bank to suppress unsustainably high sovereign borrowing costs in Spain and Italy, according to CNBC's weekly survey of oil market sentiment.
• US Agricultural Exports to China Become Costly in Times of Drought.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Expecting too Much from Central Bankers?

IBD:

• GM(GM) Ramps Up Risky Subprime Auto Loans To Drive Sales. GM Financial auto loans to customers with FICO scores below 660 rose from 87% of total loans in Q4 2010 to 93% in Q1 2012. The worse the FICO score, the bigger the increase. From Q4 2010 to Q1 2012, GM Financial loans to customers with the worst FICO scores — below 540 — shot up 79% to more than $2.3 billion. The second worst category, 540-599, rose 28% from about $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion. Prime loans, those above 660, dropped 42% to $676 million.

NY Times:

• Banks Pushed for Mortgage Tie to Libor. As we await the full story, it’s worth remembering how Libor, the London interbank offered rate, became the world standard to begin with. You probably won’t be shocked to learn that in mortgages, at least, Wall Street played a role in pushing Libor over another rate benchmark — one that some bankers say was better for borrowers.

Rasmussen Reports:

• New Low: Just 14% Think Today’s Children Will Be Better Off Than Their Parents.

Reuters:

• German minister warns against ECB bond buying. Germany's Economy Minister Philipp Roesler has warned the European Central Bank (ECB) against any large-scale government bond purchases, amid market expectations the ECB is poised to buy more Spanish and Italian debt to drive down yields. Roesler, who is also Germany's Vice Chancellor and leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner the Free Democrat Liberals (FDP) told the Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung (OZ) in an interview published on Saturday, the ECB had to remain independent. "Preserving price stability must be the principal role of the ECB and not the financing of state debt. Buying government bonds cannot be a permanent solution. We can only establish new trust in the euro zone if budget discipline is strictly maintained and structural reforms are implemented." Roesler ruffled feathers last weekend when he told a German broadcaster that a Greek euro zone exit was no longer a taboo for experts and had lost "its fear factor." A party colleague branded his remarks "reckless." In his interview with OZ Roesler dismissed widespread criticism of his stance both from Athens and within his party. "In my ministry we've seen that the Greek government has been unable to implement very much." His comments come amid a growing chorus of voices within Merkel's centre-right coalition that insist there can be no new aid for Greece and that a Greek exit could be imminent. "Greece cannot be saved, that is simple mathematics," Michael Fuchs, deputy leader of the parliamentary group of Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party told weekly business magazine Wirtschaftswoche. "The government has neither the will nor the means to implement reforms," he said. Hermann Otto Solms, a financial affairs expert for the FDP, also underlined in an interview with Wirtschaftswoche that should inspectors from the so-called troika criticise Athens's progress there should be no new aid for Greece, and it would have no choice but to leave the single currency.
• Durbin: US 'fiscal cliff' solution unlikely before election. The U.S. Congress is unlikely to resolve looming tax and spending issues before the Nov. 6 elections, a top Senate Democrat said on Sunday, but lawmakers are working on a proposal to tackle the issue after the elections.

The Telegraph:

• Lakshmi Mittal, ceo of the world's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal(MT), said more European plant closures and redundancies are likely.
• ECB could take haircut on Greek bonds in 'last chance' plan. Central banks across Europe are facing more huge losses under the terms of last-ditch efforts being made by EU authorities to keep Greece in the eurozone by slashing the country’s debt exposure.
• Germans 'better off without euro' - poll. The majority of Germans believe the country would be better off without the euro, a poll suggested on Sunday, as the economy minister reiterated doubts over whether Greece can stay in the single currency.

Welt am Sonntag:

• German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble denied that Spain plans to ask the European Financial Stability Facility to buy its bonds. There is "nothing in this speculation," citing Schaeuble in an interview. While rising interest rates are painful for Spain, the country will be able to manage them, he said.
  

WirtschaftsWoche:

• Germans feel little personal effect from the euro-region sovereign-debt crisis, citing an option poll by Allensbach research institute. About 3% of respondents predicted grave consequences for themselves from the crisis , according to the poll. Most of the people surveyed, or 51%, favor expelling highly indebted countries from the monetary union.
• Hermann Otto Solms, deputy president of Germany's lower house of parliament, said he doesn't see a majority in the Bundestag for a third Greek aid package, citing an interview. If Greece doesn't stick to its agreements, there's no other solution than for it to leave the euro area and introduce its own currency to regain competitiveness by devaluation, Solms said.
  

Dagens Naeringsliv:

• Norway's Finance Ministry is worried Norwegian banks' short-term borrowing about may make them vulnerable, citing a letter from the Ministry to the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway.
  

Irish Independent:

• Beleaguered Spain denies bailout talks with Germany. THE Spanish government has strongly denied reports that it has discussed a full-scale bailout with Germany. The reports said Economy Minister Luis de Guindos brought up the issue with German finance minister counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting in Berlin last Tuesday. They came as Spanish unemployment hit the highest levels in at least a quarter of a century. The jobless rate rose to 24.6pc in the second quarter of the year, up from 24.4pc in the first three months, and the highest level since records began in 1976 -- the year after General Franco died.

Financial News:

• China should pull back property lending policies to prevent a bubble in the real estate industry if local governments don't cooperate, Financial News said in a commentary on its front page by reporter Xu Shaofeng. Policies can't be carried out correctly if local governments were to ask property developers to show inspectors "low- key" prices, the report says. China's State Council will from late July send eight teams to 16 provinces to check the implementation of property curb polices.
  

Caixin:

• China can not rely on fiscal stimulus for growth, citing NPC Standing Committee Member Gu Shengzu.

China Securities Journal:

• China should expand a property tax trial to additional cities as quickly as possible to curb speculation, according to a commentary on the front-page of the China Securities Journal. The property tax trial should be expanded from Chongqing and Shanghai to Beijing, Guangzhou and other tier-one cities, according to a reporter named Ding Bing. Property taxes should be imposed on bother new and existing homes. A national registration system and database to track the number of homes owned by individuals should be expanded to strictly impose the property tax.

Economic Information Daily:

• China's large- and medium-sized steelmakers' combined first-half profit fell 96% y/y to 2.39b yuan, citing an official at the China Iron & Steel Association. Inventory at 76 key steelmakers totals 12.5m tons now, from 11.8m tons in early July. The 76 steelmakers sold products at 4,416 yuan/ton in mid July, down by 73 yuan/ton in early July.

Haaretz:

• U.S. presented Netanyahu with contingency plan for Iran strike. U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon shared Washington's contingency plans for a possible attack on Iran with Israel's PM, according to a senior American official.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (CAT), (FARM), (A) and (BWLD).
• Made negative comments on (PG).
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 163.50 -6.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 136.50 -4.25 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +.49%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (L)/.76
• (DBD)/.59
• (CNA)/.56
• (CIT)/-.53
• (EMN)/1.30
• (HTZ)/.32
• (MAS)/.11
• (APC)/.77
• (PPS)/.57
• (FLS)/1.91
• (JEC)/.75

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for July is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus 5.8 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• (AZZ) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Spanish GDP report and the Italian 10Y bond auction could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.