Indices
- Russell 2000 942.85 +2.12%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 407.99 +2.29%
- Russell 1000 Growth 725.81 +2.51%
- Russell 1000 Value 809.11 +2.13%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 993.18 +2.98%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,163.24 +2.72%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 733.41 +2.29%
- Transports 6,143.75 +1.76%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.02 +2.98%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 42.22 +1.20%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,138.01 -.27%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 842.12 -.55%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 181,630 +1.77%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 871.0 +977
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.9 +26.4%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 223,398 -10.2%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,768,185 +2.1%
- Total Put/Call 1.14 +9.62%
- OEX Put/Call 2.82 +90.54%
- ISE Sentiment 56.0 -28.21%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.06 -13.36%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.59 -7.02%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.24 +.65%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,729.18 +3.52%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.623 Trillion -.3%
- AAII % Bulls 19.3 -45.6%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 280.18 -2.48%
- Heating Oil 287.18 -1.85%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 197.83 +.87%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 368.0 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 141.0 USD/Ton +3.75%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,499.98 +1.5%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.2% unch.
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3283 +1.38%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 115.13 +.22%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.8 +3.8 points
- Citi Emerging Mkts Economic Surprise Index -37.7 -8.4 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 5/1
- US Dollar Index 82.31 -.32%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.41 +1.71%
- Yield Curve 149.0 +1 basis point
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.72% +1 basis point
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.210 Trillion +.39%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.50 -5.39%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 124.0 -8.29%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 97.26 -3.83%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 186.95 -6.83%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 116.61 -3.15%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.0 -6.45%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 402.0 -6 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -3 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.50 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -.25 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 82.85 -5.95%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 167.55 -4.50%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 222.89 -11.80%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 110.50 -5.5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.511 Trillion +2.16%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,021.70 +1.90%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 358,000 +3,700
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.43% -11 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 826.10 +4.48%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.0 +.1 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% -10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.56/gallon -.06/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 875.0 +1.63%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index n/a
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 231,648 -.83%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)
- FSLR, LUFK, TSRO, SPWR, NUS, PICO, FSCI, NGVC and FBC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)
- IGTE, INFI, TTEK, BRLI, MG, HMA, FTNT, FFIV, SHLM and TITN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Today's Market Take:
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 54.0 -50.0%
- Total Put/Call 1.12 +28.74%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.90 +.32%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 167.55 +5.4%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 97.26 +1.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 223.32 -.78%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.50 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
- Yield Curve 149.0 -7 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $141.0/Metric Tonne +.07%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.80 -1.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -3 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -45 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Slovenia to Test Debt Appetite as Financing Pressure Mounts. Slovenia’s government failed to raise 100 million
euros ($131 million) at a debt sale this week. Now it’s shooting for
five times that amount next week. With bond yields
approaching levels that prompted bailouts of other euro nations, the
government will offer 500 million euros of 18-month Treasury bills on
April 17. The International Monetary Fund estimates Slovenia will need
to borrow about 3 billion euros this year to repay maturing debt, aid
banks and finance the budget. The debt sale will test the willingness of investors abroad to finance
Slovenia’s economy as a banking crisis strains the budget, government
bonds plunge and soaring default risk threaten to make the country the
euro region’s sixth bailout recipient after Cyprus last month. The
largest local lenders are state owned and struggling with rising
bad debt.
- Demetriades Says Cyprus Central Bank’s Independence Under Attack. The head of Cyprus’s central bank
said the government is attacking his institution’s independence
at the same time as his family receives death threats from
people who lost money in the country’s recent bailout. “The independence of the central bank of Cyprus is being
attacked at this time,” Panicos Demetriades, who is also a
member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said in
an interview in Dublin today. His ability to manage the
situation is being made more difficult by “death threats not
only to myself, but toward my children and my wife,” he said.
- VW Sales Growth Slows in March on Europe Market Declines.
Volkswagen AG (VOW), Europe’s biggest automaker, said global sales
growth slowed in March and that headwinds in its home region are
intensifying. VW eked out a 0.2 percent rise in deliveries last month to
864,400 vehicles as demand in China and North America more than offset
shrinking sales across Europe, the Wolfsburg, Germany-
based carmaker said today. In the first two months of the year,
VW vehicle deliveries rose 8.3 percent to 1.4 million. “The data for March clearly show that the markets are
becoming even more difficult,” Christian Klingler, VW’s sales
chief, said in the statement.
- Bank Risk Models to Face Further Basel Probe on Capital Concerns.
Banks (BEBANKS) face further scrutiny from global regulators into their
risk models amid concerns lenders are underestimating the amount of
capital they need to cope with losses. Initial studies of how lenders
measure risk on assets they intend to trade as well as those they
intend to hold to maturity found “substantial” differences in the amount
of capital different banks hold against identical securities, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said in a report to finance
ministers from the Group of 20 nations and central bank chiefs. Banks’ modeling choices are a “key source of variation,”
the group said. “Further analysis is therefore under way, and
areas where Basel committee standards might be modified to
reduce excessive variation are becoming apparent.” The
committee is considering tightening its rules to narrow banks’
freedom to design models and said it’s also weighing the need
for tougher scrutiny by supervisors and stronger disclosure
requirements.
- China Said to Plan Replacing Chen at Largest Policy Lender.
China Development Bank Corp. Chairman Chen Yuan will step down, handing
the reins of the world’s largest policy lender to Bank of
Communications Co.’s Hu Huaibang, said two people with knowledge of the
matter. CDB is the biggest lender to so-called local government
financing vehicles that have accumulated at least 10.7 trillion
yuan in debt. Half of the bank’s lending this year will go to
urbanization, according to a Jan. 29 notice on its website.
- Commodities Fall to Lowest Since July on ‘Soft’ U.S. Data. Commodities tumbled to the lowest
since July, led by a plunge in precious metals, as U.S. retail
sales fell the most in nine months and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly declined. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index
of 24 raw materials dropped 1.6 percent to 621.49 at 12:08 p.m. New York
time. Earlier, the gauge touched 617.55, the lowest since July 13. Gold headed for a bear market, and silver plummeted to the lowest since November 2010. Crude oil slumped to a one-month
low.
- Gold Heading for Bear Market Plunges to Lowest Since July 2011. Gold tumbled to the lowest price
since July 2011, heading for a bear market, on signs that investors are favoring the dollar and equities as the global
economy recovers. Silver dropped more than 5 percent.
- Wells Fargo(WFC) Uses Cost Cuts to Set Profit Record as Revenue Slips. Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. home lender, said lower
expenses helped the company post a record profit in the first quarter
even as revenue dropped and lending margins narrowed. Net
income advanced 22 percent to a record $5.17 billion, or 92 cents a
diluted share, from $4.25 billion, or 75 cents, a year earlier,
according to a statement today from the San Francisco-based bank. While
the results topped estimates from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, new
home loans and mortgage banking income weakened, and the shares slipped
2.3 percent in New York trading.
Wall Street Journal:
- J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo Struggle With Weak Demand for Loans. Banks Report Higher First-Quarter Profits But See Declines in Mortgage Business, Profit on Lending.
- EU Lawmaker Sees Fight Over ECB Scrutiny.
The European Central Bank must open itself up to greater democratic
scrutiny as it prepares to take on major new powers, a senior European
lawmaker said Thursday. "The biggest alarm bell I would say has been the attitude of the
European Central Bank, [which] is causing the Parliament a lot of
concern," Sharon Bowles, chairwoman of the European Parliament's
influential economic and monetary affairs committee, said in an
interview.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- 'Zombie' Buyers Threaten 'Consumer is Back' Meme: Economist. (video)
- The Euro Zone Crisis Is Back—On Multiple Fronts. Europe's finance ministers meeting in Dublin on Friday are facing a
renewed crisis on multiple fronts,with a backlash against austerity
acting as a gloomy backdrop for negotiations over bailout extensions for
Portugal and Ireland, while tackling Cyprus's botched bailout and
growing worries about Slovenia. Investors, increasingly aware of the euro zone's disarray, will be closely watching the results of that meeting.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Brazil's Mantega says c.bank could raise rates if needed. Brazil's central bank could
raise interest rates if needed to control rising inflation,
Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on Friday, helping to
increase bets that policymakers could tighten monetary policy as
early as next week. "We will not hesitate to take measures, even measures that
are considered less popular, like for example those related to
interest rates," Mantega said during an economic event organized
by a magazine in Sao Paulo. Although
Mantega has previously said that the central bank
is free to raise rates if needed, his latest comments are seen
as confirmation that President Dilma Rousseff, as prices continue to
rise in Latin America's biggest economy, agrees it is time to increase
borrowing costs.
- Copper drops on growth worries, ample supply.
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -4.70% 2) Oil Tankers -2.33% 3) Steel -2.03%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- NGD, CLF, TVL, PCS, SU, SJR, IMGN, INFI, JCP, CSTE, CHUY, KUB, INFY, MPW, CEF, ABX, IEP, IMGN, MTB, PRLB, HRS, TFX, IM, CRS, ASA, AU, SLW, CG, BAP, CF, CTF, AUY, CTSH, IART, EWY, PCS, GGN, DNR, JCP, GLD, IAU, RGLD, GDX, NEM, UCO, HRS and EEFT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) FTK 2) M 3) XLF 4) MYGN 5) HL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) CHRW 2) EEFT 3) CG 4) HLF 5) DECK
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Restaurants +.89% 2) Biotech -.03% 3) Homebuilders -.05%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SBGI, ASH, IOC, BZH and RATE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) RAD 2) ACAD 3) MDVN 4) BKS 5) AGQ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CSX 2) JBHT 3) MCD 4) HLF 5) WAG
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Italy’s bond rally threatened by political reality. As an Italian bond rally wraps up a sixth week, investors risk having
their enthusiasm jolted by the country’s political gridlock. Italian bonds delivered returns of 3.4 percent since inconclusive
elections on Feb 24-25 produced a hung parliament. Prime Minister
Monti’s caretaker government has little scope to combat the longest
recession in more than two decades and said this week its debt will
reach 130.4 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than twice
the euro-region limit. The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented bond-buying stimulus coupled with
the European Central Bank’s renewed pledge to defend the euro have
underpinned the gains even as Italy’s political stalemate and recession
deepen.
- Merkel’s One-Time Ally Steinbrueck Forges Platform to Unseat Her. German
opposition candidate Peer Steinbrueck’s drive to become chancellor is
going into reverse. Steinbrueck’s Social Democratic Party gathers this
weekend in the Bavarian town of Augsburg as the gap with Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s bloc widens. The SPD’s answer is a platform that
appeals to core Socialist values through reining in banks,
taxing the rich and reducing social inequality it says has grown
under Merkel. Delegates will vote on the platform on April 14.
- N Korea May Be Able to Make Nuclear Missiles, U.S. Says. The
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has reported that North Korea now has
some nuclear weapons small enough to be delivered by its ballistic
missiles. The
DIA cautioned in a classified report last month that it has only
“moderate confidence” in that finding, which also said that the
reliability of North Korea’s missiles “will be low.”
- China Rebound at Risk as Xi Curbs Officials’ Spending.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s campaign to rein in lavish spending by
officials and state-owned companies is proving so effective that it
risks helping end the nation’s economic rebound after one quarter. Xi’s
efforts are restraining consumer spending and making it tougher for the
new government to boost domestic demand as factory output slows.
Large-restaurant and catering sales fell for the first time in
more than three decades in the first two months of the year, while
demand and prices for luxury items such as Moutai liquor and Longjing
tea have slumped.
- China Customs Official Apologizes for Incorrect Data. A Chinese government spokesman said
he gave incorrect and “groundless” investment data sourced
from the Internet at a briefing this week, underscoring concern
that official numbers may not be credible. Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman
and head of the statistics
department at the Beijing-based General Administration of
Customs, said in a statement yesterday that he “expresses deep
apologies” for citing unconfirmed figures from online sources he didn’t
identify. Zheng was referring to remarks he made at a customs
administration press conference on April 10 where he also acknowledged
concerns that China’s export data may be overstated.
- Kerry Said Ready to Ask China to Obey UN North Korea Sanctions. The U.S. will ask China to abide by
United Nations sanctions against North Korea and shut off the
flow of money that could be used to develop weapons of mass
destruction, a State Department official said. Secretary of State John Kerry, on his first trip to Asia as
the top U.S. diplomat, is scheduled to meet with leaders in
Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo as the region confronts threats of war
by North Korea. Two U.S. officials briefed reporters
accompanying Kerry on the condition of not being named. The U.S. wants to convince China, North Korea’s main ally,
that it’s in China’s economic and political interests to reverse
a long-standing practice of looking the other way regarding
banned cross-border trade with its Communist neighbor, an
administration official said. Kerry will also urge China to toughen its message to
leaders in Pyongyang and will seek information about
conversations between China and North Korea as well as what kind
of leverage the new Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has on North
Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the State Department official said. There will be no quid pro quo in U.S.-China discussions and
the U.S. won’t soften its criticism of China’s human-rights
record and assertiveness over disputed areas in the South China
Sea in exchange for greater cooperation on North Korea, the
official said.
- Japan, World Economy at Risk If Abenomics Fails. The Bank of Japan’s strategy to end almost two decades of stagnation
through unprecedented monetary stimulus may set off a ticking time-bomb
for financial markets if it’s not followed by extensive structural
reforms. Such reforms, critical to the success of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
economic program — dubbed Abenomics — have historically proved difficult
to implement. The combination of a debt load accounting for more
than
200 percent of GDP and diminishing domestic demand for government bonds
may sound the death knell for Japan’s economy, with or without Abe’s new
economic policy. This would have global consequences. Click here to
continue reading.
- Infosys Plunges as Sales Forecast Lags. Infosys Ltd. (INFO), India’s second-
largest software services exporter, fell in Mumbai trading as it
forecast annual sales will rise slower than analysts estimated. Shares plunged 15 percent to 2,491.7 rupees as of 9:16 a.m.
The company expects revenue to increase 6 percent to 10 percent
in the year that started April 1, it said. Analysts estimated
sales to grow 12.7 percent to 454.7 billion rupees, based on the
average of 66 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Asian Stocks Fall From 20-Month High as Yen Strengthens.
Asian stocks fell from the highest level in 20 months, paring the
biggest weekly advance since September. Japan’s Topix Index (TPX)
dropped for the first time in eight days as the yen strengthened against
the dollar. Canon Inc. (7751), a Japanese camera maker that gets 80
percent of sales abroad, slid 2.3 percent. GS Engineering &
Construction Corp. (006360) tumbled by the daily 15 percent limit in
Seoul for a second day after reporting an unexpected loss.
- Bovespa Index Tumbles Most in the World on Brazil Growth Concern. The Bovespa index tumbled the
most among the world’s major equity gauges as a report showing retail
sales unexpectedly dropped in February rekindled concern that Brazil’s
economic recovery will falter. Lojas Americanas SA led losses among retailers, sinking the most
since August. Oil services provider Lupatech SA tumbled after missing a
$6.79 million bond payment. OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, the
crude oil producer controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, declined to a
record low. The Bovespa fell 1.4 percent to 55,400.91 at the close of trading in
Sao Paulo, the most in dollar terms among 94 major global stock
measures tracked by Bloomberg. Fifty-four stocks dropped on the gauge
while 14 advanced. The real dropped 0.1 percent to 1.9756 per dollar.
- IMF Trims U.S. Growth Outlook in Draft Report. U.S. gross domestic product will expand 1.7 percent this
year compared with a previously forecast 2 percent advance,
according to the draft report obtained by Bloomberg News. The
draft, which was presented to the IMF board last week, may be
subject to revisions before its scheduled April 16 release. The
global economy will expand 3.4 percent this year, compared with
3.5 percent forecast in January, according to projections in the
report.
- JPMorgan(JPM) Analysts Say Big Investment Banks Are ‘Uninvestable’.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets and the top
investment bank by fees, is questioning the so-called universal bank
model’s future. Top-tier investment banks are “uninvestable at this
point with a risk of spinoff from universal banks,” JPMorgan analysts
led by London-based Kian Abouhossein wrote in a research note today.
They cited potential rule changes and curbs on capital and funding.
Investors should avoid Goldman Sachs Group Inc., once the world’s most
profitable securities firm, and Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest
bank, because of pressure on earnings and the unknown impact of new
regulations, according to the report. Both firms rank
among the biggest sales and trading rivals for New York-based JPMorgan,
which isn’t mentioned in the report. The bank is scheduled to report
first-quarter results tomorrow.
- Oil Outlook ‘Bearish’ on Demand Drop, U.S. Shale Boom. Crude prices will probably drop, at
least in the first half, amid rising U.S. shale-oil production
and slowing economic growth, according to analysts.
“I’d stay moderately bearish from here,” Seth Kleinman,
head of energy strategy at Citigroup Inc., said at the Bloomberg
Oil Forum in London today. “Everything looks pretty weak,” he said,
citing downward revisions to global demand growth forecasts by the
International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries. Global crude production will be “robust” this year as output
rises in the U.S., Iraq and Kazakhstan, while demand growth may slow in
consuming nations including China, he said.
Wall Street Journal:
- John Paulson to Start New Hedge Fund.
John Paulson took flack for considering a move to Puerto Rico, one that
would have cut his tax bill. Mr. Paulson dropped the idea of a move.
But the hedge fund manager seems more determined to help his clients
reduce their own tax bills. On Thursday, Mr. Paulson, who is trying to
turn around his hedge-fund firm after a period of difficult trading,
sent an invitation to clients and potential clients, announcing the
launch of the Paulson Partners Premium L.P. Fund. The invitation said the fund is for investors “looking to mitigate income taxes.”
- New Drive for Tougher Testing of European Banks.
Europe is embarking on a new attempt to pull its banks out of the
molasses of its debt crisis, hoping an aggressive cleanup of toxic
assets will get banks to lend again and kick-start its flailing
economies. The push is being led by several key officials in Brussels and
Frankfurt, who want to see a new round of much-tougher stress tests
before the European Central Bank becomes the euro zone's main banking
policeman next year, according to four European officials familiar the
talks.
- Two Firms Amass Much of World's Copper Supply. Commodities Traders Pay to Divert Shipments From Other Warehouses; Manufacturers Worry About Access. Two major commodities-trading firms have amassed much of the world's
copper supplies in their warehouses, partly by paying to divert
shipments away from other storage hubs, traders and analysts say. This concentration of copper supplies has sparked concerns among
industrial consumers of the metal.
- Can We Afford Another Housing Boom? With prices rising, now is the time to prevent over-investment. With prices rising again, now is precisely the time to begin reducing
the federal subsidies that encourage over-investment in housing. In some
areas of the country Fan and Fred still back mortgages of more than
$600,000, while the FHA backs loans of more than $700,000. Reform-minded
lawmakers may not be able to stop Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke from
dropping money from helicopters, but they can begin reducing the
conforming loan limits at Fan, Fred and FHA to put some guardrails
around Washington's reckless credit policies.
Fox News:
- IRS tells agents it can snoop on emails without warrant, internal documents show. The Internal Revenue Service believes it doesn’t need permission to
root through emails, texts or other forms of electronic correspondence,
according to recently released internal agency documents. The documents, which were obtained through a Freedom of Information
Act request by the American Civil Liberties Union, reveal that tax
department agents have been operating under the assumption that they can
bypass warrants. The ACLU claims this would in turn violate the Fourth
Amendment. According to a 2009 IRS employee handbook, though, the tax agency
said the Fourth Amendment does not protect emails because Internet users
don’t “have a reasonable expectation of privacy in such
communications.” A lawyer for the agency reiterated the policy in 2010. And the
current online version of the IRS manual says that no warrant is
required for emails that are stored by an Internet storage provider for
more than 180 days.
CNBC:
- Shorts Getting Longer as Stock Market Bears Throw In the Towel. Short interest as a percentage of total available shares reached a
12-month low of 3.6 percent as a profitable March ended, according to
Bespoke Investment Group. The finding sends
two potentially important messages: that investors are finally buying
into the rally (a contrarian signal); and that a good portion of the
recent move probably came from a short-squeeze in which those betting
against the market had to cover their positions.
- Suckers! Tech Execs Selling Stock as Nasdaq Hits High.
Insider selling at the biggest technology companies hit a record pace
over the last six months even as investors snatched up shares, pushing
the Nasdaq Composite Index to a 12-year high. More than 55 million
shares were sold versus 1,780 shares bought for a sell-buy ratio of an
eye-popping 31,109 to 1 at the 10 biggest tech companies, including
Microsoft, Oracle and Qualcomm, according to Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter and market analyst for 49 years.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- Herbalife(HLF) Ties to ‘Work From Home’ Promoters May Draw New Scrutiny. Entities
that promote “work from home” opportunities could be a new source of
scrutiny for Herbalife, the nutritional products company that has become
the subject of a pitched battle on Wall Street. The Federal Trade
Commission has received scores of complaints from people who paid money
to operations with names like Income At Home and Online Business
Systems, according to materials the agency released
under the Freedom of Information Act. In many of the complaints,
consumers who contacted such companies
said they discovered at a later stage that they were being recruited to
sell Herbalife products, an opportunity many did not wish to pursue.
Reuters:
- Chinese officials even more pessimistic on local debt than Fitch. Fitch Ratings' estimate of
China's local government debt is vastly more pessimistic than
other analyses, but recent statements from government officials
suggest that even Fitch may be too optimistic. The agency, which downgraded the country's sovereign credit
rating this week, puts China's overall sovereign debt at 74
percent of GDP by the end of 2012, of which 49 percent is
central government and 25 percent is local. Recent data indicates
that, after stabilizing in 2011, local debt surged again last year as
policymakers launched a new wave of infrastructure spending to stabilize
the world's No.2 economy amid its slowest growth in 13 years. Even Fitch's relatively pessimistic estimate may
be too rosy. The head of China's
National Audit Office (NAO), which
published a detailed survey of local debt in 2011, recently estimated
current local debt outstanding at 15 to 18 trillion yuan -- equal to 29
to 35 percent of GDP -- by the end of 2012. That's well ahead of Fitch's
estimate of 12.85 trillion yuan
and an increase from the NAO's previous estimate of 10.7
trillion yuan in local debt outstanding by end-2010. A former finance minister, Xiang Huaicheng, said at a forum
last week that local debt may total as much 20 trillion yuan. Fitch's calculation of China's total non-financial debt is
broadly in line with other analysts at 198 percent of GDP. The
disagreement arises from the lack of clarity over how large
swathes of Chinese debt should be classified.
- U.S. Fed balance sheet grows again in latest week. The U.S. Federal Reserve's
balance sheet liabilities reached a fresh record size on an
increase in the central bank's holdings of U.S. government debt,
Fed data released on Thursday showed.
The Fed's balance sheet liabilities, a broad gauge of its
lending to the financial system, stood at $3.210 trillion on
April 10, compared with $3.198 trillion on April 3.
Telegraph:
Bild:
- German Financial Advisers Call for Abolition EU500 Note. Reiner Holznagel, president of Germany Taxpayers Association, says move would make it harder to take money out of the country.
ChannelNewsAsia:
- Singapore's GDP contacts in Q1. Singapore's
economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of 2013, hurt by a
sharp decline in manufacturing. Singapore: Advance estimates indicate
that in the first quarter of
2013, the Singapore economy contracted by 0.6 per cent compared to the
1.5 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. On a
quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy
contracted by 1.4 per cent, down from the 3.3 per cent growth in the
previous quarter noted the Trade and Industry Ministry. Market watchers had expected 1 per cent growth and point out worries in the manufacturing sector.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -4.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 90.5 -2.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance Retail Sales for March are estimated unch. versus a +1.1% gain in February.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for March are estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in February.
- Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas for March are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.
- The Producer Price Index for March is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.7% gain in February.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in February.
9:55 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 78.5 versus 78.6 in March.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for February are estimated to rise -.4% versus a +1.0% gain in January.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Eurozone industrial
production data, EU Finance Ministers Meeting and the (IMGN) analyst
meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
