Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, more Mideast unrest, increasing Eurozone/Asian debt angst, more shorting, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,626.73 -1.01%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,626.73 -1.01%

• DJIA 15,070.18 -1.17%

• NASDAQ 3,423.55 -1.32%

• Russell 2000 981.38 -.63%

• S&P 500 High Beta 25.06 -2.0%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 422.78 -.76%

• Russell 1000 Growth 740.81 -1.05%

• Russell 1000 Value 828.80 -.90%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,005.01 -.14%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,213.52 +.05%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 754.99 -1.18%

• Transports 6,309.48 -.54%

• Utilities 485.33 -.32%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 93.18 -3.02%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.67 -2.61%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,097.24 -.70%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 945.94 -.10%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 184.922 -1.46%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -306 -195

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.21 -39.90%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 269,831 +5.47%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,815,904 +4.32%

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +5.36%

• OEX Put/Call .72 -19.10%

• ISE Sentiment 113.0 +44.87%

• NYSE Arms 1.75 +124.35%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.15 +13.28%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.60 +7.46%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.65 +2.80%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.93 +2.69%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,854.72 +.64%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.612 Trillion -.01%

• AAII % Bulls 33.0 +11.9%

• AAII % Bears 34.6 -11.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 286.18 -.52%

• Crude Oil 97.85 +1.66%

• Reformulated Gasoline 289.67 +.80%

• Natural Gas 3.73 -2.35%

• Heating Oil 296.22 +2.10%

• Gold 1,387.60 +.24%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.14 -4.25%

• Copper 320.15 -2.03%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 327.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.60 USD/Ton +2.43%

• Lumber 283.60 -7.92%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,484.29 -1.67%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.6% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1766 +9.62%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 116.53 +.32%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.70 +2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -48.40 -3.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 42.0% chance of no change, 58.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/19

• US Dollar Index 80.67 -1.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.94 -2.62%

• Yield Curve 186.0 -1 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.13% -4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.367 Trillion +.30%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.17 -2.96%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 158.0 +2.15%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 88.93 +2.22%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 208.07 -5.43%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 115.0 -4.76%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 401.0 +15 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06% -9 basis points

• TED Spread 23.25 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 82.49 +3.90%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 159.64 +4.82%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 297.78 -.71%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 137.0 +34.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.618 Trillion +3.36%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,034.50 +.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 345,300 -7,200

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.98% +7 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 670.70 +5.01%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.3 -1.6 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.62/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 900.0 +10.84%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,035.03 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 252,641 +13.9%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.51%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.05%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +1.8%

• Telecom +1.2%

• Airlines +1.1%

• Homebuilders +.8%

• Drugs +.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Services -2.2% 

• Banks -2.3%

• Software -2.5%

• Gold & Silver -2.9%

• Coal -7.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• CTB, DOLE, KS, QCOR, BLC, DMND, RH, GCI, STEL, TUES, SE, ULTA, LYV, PVH, LBY and SWY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• AN, CLDT, BFAM, TWI, MYGN and GNMK

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Financials/Metals Sector Weakness

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.11 +4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -28.8%

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +24.74%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +178.55%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.67 +.60%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 159.69 -2.86%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 88.83 -2.38%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 298.19 -.92%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 -.75 bp

• TED Spread 23.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.5 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 186.0 -1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $113.60/Metric Tonne +1.43%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.70 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -2 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -52 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -40 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.61%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -2.25% 2) Steel -1.71% 3) Banks -1.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PBR, DK, LFC, HBC, RDS/B, KEY, DEO, MYGN, SIRO, GCI, KMR, ETE, GNRC, MLU, PTR, SWY, ECPG, CHL, MR, ICUI, BC, LINE, ALV, DD, CASY, FSLR and SNP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MYGN 2) IYT 3) DHI 4) JNPR 5) AMTD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STI 2) AXP 3) CTB 4) WMT 5) MNST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• Homebuilders +.99% 2) REITs +.69% 3) Utilities +.39%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRPN, BEE, RH, ELN, INVN and SCTY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SWHC 2) OCN 3) TWO 4) SVNT 5) GME
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) PG 3) SCHW 4) CB 5) PFE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume