Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.72%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Coal +1.35% 2) Semis +1.27% 3) Construction +1.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NXST, EVC, WLT, INFI, SCTY, FLIR, RAX, PAY and PRLB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AEGR 2) TIBX 3) MRK 4) GNW 5) LINE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FLIR 2) JEC 3) SIG 4) DUK 5) HES
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • China Banking Stress May Come Faster on Cash Crunch, Fitch Says. China’s worst cash crunch in at least seven years is an indicator of shadow lending gone awry and a banking crisis may appear earlier than expected if liquidity remains tight, according to Fitch Ratings. “We are starting to see some issues emerging” in liquidity, Charlene Chu, Fitch’s head of China financial institutions, said in an interview today with Zeb Eckert on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. “It will be very important over the next month or so to see how that plays out. If that doesn’t go away, some of this may be moving ahead faster and earlier than we thought.”
  • China Swaps Rise to 2011 High as PBOC Refrains From Adding Cash. One-year interest-rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, up 7 bps at 3.89% in Shanghai, according to Bloomberg data. It touched 3.9%, the highest since September 2011. "The PBOC has continued to surprise with its refusal to inject liquidity through open-market operations despite extremely high money market rates," Dariusz Kowalczy, a Credit Agricole CIB strategist in Hong Kong, wrote in a report today. "The situation is untenable and we expect the central bank to inject liquidity in the near term either via reverse repos or a cut in the require reserve ratio." 
  • China May Home Prices Rise as Major Cities Post Record Gains. China’s new home prices rose in almost all cities in May, led by major centers, as the government’s latest property measures failed to deter buyers. Prices climbed from a year earlier in 69 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today. The southern business city of Guangzhou posted the biggest gain with prices rising 15 percent from a year earlier. Beijing prices climbed 12 percent, while they advanced 10 percent in Shanghai. All three cities had their biggest advance since the government changed its methodology for the data in January 2011
  • China Foreign-Investment Gains Ease as Economic Slowdown Deepens. Foreign direct investment in China rose in May by the least in four months, a sign of concern that growth is slowing in the world’s second-biggest economy. Inbound non-financial investment increased 0.3 percent from a year earlier to $9.26 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in a statement in Beijing, after a 0.4 percent gain in April.
  • China Oil Contraction Sinks Industry’s Biggest Tankers: Freight. China’s oil imports are contracting for the first time since 2009, reducing the biggest source of demand for crude tankers at a time when U.S. purchases are slowing and owners face the worst capacity glut in three decades. The world’s second-biggest economy bought 2.1 percent less crude in the first five months, compared with an 11 percent expansion in the same period in 2012, customs data show. Tanker owners are already losing money and freight swaps indicate rates won’t be profitable before 2015.
  • Directors Refuse to Go Naked for Chinese IPOs. Stephen Markscheid holds one of the riskiest jobs in the world -- or so say insurers. The 59-year-old former banker, a Mandarin-speaking American, sits on the boards of five U.S.-listed Chinese companies, including JinkoSolar Holding Co. (JKS) The group of about 500 Chinese firms came under scrutiny over the past two years as a rash of accounting scandals and irregularities sent shares tumbling, sparked investor lawsuits and halted new stock offerings on U.S. exchanges. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has revoked more than 50 Chinese company registrations since early 2011. “The work that I’m doing now, it’s not for the faint of heart,” said Markscheid, who travels to China for board meetings from his home near Chicago, in Wilmette, Illinois, eight to 10 times a year. “I’ve been sued quite a few times.” As a result, the cost of insurance to cover directors and officers of Chinese companies against lawsuits has skyrocketed, with premiums reaching as high as $100,000 per $1 million of coverage in some cases, up from a range of $10,000 to $15,000 a few years ago
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Chinese Developers Fall; Sony Jumps. Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first decline in three days, as Chinese developers fell on concern gains in home prices will limit scope for monetary easing. China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the biggest mainland developer traded in Hong Kong, slipped 1.9 percent. STX Pan Ocean Co., South Korea’s No. 1 bulk-shipping company, slumped 15 percent after a court accepted its application to seek protection. Sony Corp. (6758) climbed 4.5 percent in Tokyo after Third Point LLC, a hedge fund controlled by billionaire Daniel Loeb, increased its stake in the electronics maker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent to 132.02 as of 12:43 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing earlier gains of as much as 0.3 percent. About six shares dropped for every five that rose on the gauge.
  • Sinking Spain Deposit Yields Push Cash Into Funds: Euro Credit. A plunge in Spanish deposit yields is starting to push savings into investment funds, threatening to work against government efforsts to spur banks to lend.
  • Obama Says Bernanke Fed Term Lasting ‘Longer Than He Wanted’. President Barack Obama said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has stayed in his post “longer than he wanted,” one of the clearest signals the central bank chief will leave when his current term expires next year. “Ben Bernanke’s done an outstanding job,” Obama said in an interview with Charlie Rose that airs tonight, when asked about nominating him for another term subject to Senate approval. “He’s already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to.”  
  • Copper Drops on Concern U.S. May Cut Stimulus, China Slowdown. Copper declined for a second day on concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve may scale back stimulus measures and that further signs of slowdown in China, the biggest user, will curb demand for the metal. Copper for delivery in three months fell as much as 0.5 percent to $7,047.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and was at $7,068.25 at 10:48 a.m. in Shanghai. Earlier it gained as much as 0.7 percent.
  • Rubber Poised for Record Glut as Shippers End Curbs: Commodities. Rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record, prolonging the bear market that began in April, as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments. The surplus will expand 57 percent to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months, according to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, the Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades. Futures in Tokyo, a global benchmark, will drop at least another 5.1 percent to 225 yen a kilogram ($2,376 a ton) by the end of December, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Five anticipate 200 yen, a price last seen in 2009.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Putin and Obama Clash Over Assad's Fate. Syria at Center of G-8 Summit, as Western Leaders Press Russia; 'Terror in Europe's Backyard,' Syrian President Warns. President Barack Obama and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin clashed openly over Syria as world leaders began a summit here Monday, sharply underscoring deepening differences over the civil war.
  • China Wrestles With Banks’ Pleas for Cash. China's big banks are urging the central bank to free up funds to ease an unusual cash squeeze, as Beijing faces a stark choice: add money to the financial system to help lenders, or stay the course to rein in a rapid expansion of credit.
Fox News: 
  • NSA chief Alexander to testify on classified leaks in rare public hearing. National Security Agency chief Gen. Keith Alexander will address the House intelligence committee on Tuesday in a rare public hearing that could shed new light on the scope of the federal government’s classified phone and Internet surveillance programs. The session involving two of Washington’s most secretive bodies comes as an NSA leaker,  former contractor Edward Snowden, threatens to reveal more government secrets from his hiding spot in Hong Kong.
  • Lawmakers urge caution on US intervention in Syria. Sending Syria arms and aid and possibly more is a commitment that could haunt the U.S. for years to come, according to some Washington lawmakers. They are cautioning the Obama administration to carefully consider history, a still-fragile U.S. economy and the need to develop a clear end-strategy before agreeing to help fight and fund a civil war 6,000 miles away. “What is the plan? Where are we going in Syria? And what do you want to accomplish?” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers asked Sunday. The voices of caution are emerging after the administration agreed to provide small arms to the rebels, citing evidence that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad  had used chemical weapons. 
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Second-quarter profit warnings target record. Companies will close their books on the second quarter in two weeks, and so far, the number of S&P 500 companies that have issued earnings guidance below consensus analyst estimates is running higher than normal. As of Friday, Thomson Reuters said it’s counted 96 negative EPS announcements vs. 14 positive announcements, putting the running negative-to-positive ratio at 6.9. That would be the most negative on record, if it persists into the start of earnings season.
CNBC:
  • Big Bond Bear Lurks, but Companies Still Love Debt. Despite the doom and gloom surrounding fixed income, debt issuance has been at record levels through the year, with no signs of pullback, particularly from companies looking to cash in on still-cheap money. Globally, corporate bond issuance has hit $853.8 billion so far this year, up 15 percent from the same period in 2012, according to the latest figures from Dealogic. Of particular note is the size of the deals: an average of $780 million in the U.S, a gain of 14 percent from last year. This has come even though bond funds have suffered through consecutive weeks of record outflows. Investors pulled $14.4 billion out of all fixed income funds last week, according to Citigroup, as part of a trend likely to see a record in June for bond exits. 
  • G-8 Says World Economic Prospects Still Weak. The euro zone came under pressure from other rich economies on Monday to press on with a banking union and Japan was urged to follow up on massive central bank stimulus with structural reforms and measures to tackle its budget deficit.
Zero Hedge:
  • What The Fed Is Looking At. So once again we ask - given all of this 'weakness' or missing of Fed benchmarks- that the Fed is well aware of, why would so many members have been out discussing 'Taper' if it were not due to their concerns of broken markets and bubble conditions.
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
Kyodo: 
  • Merkel critical of Japan's credit policy in meeting with Abe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel apparently criticized Japan for its credit-easing policy that led to the yen's sharp depreciation against major currencies earlier this year, when she met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday. Merkel raised the issue of foreign exchange in the meeting and indicated current circumstances surrounding foreign exchange rates could harm the global competitiveness of cheap labor countries, a Japanese official told reporters. Abe dismissed the criticism saying that his government was in no position to do anything about currency movements, the official indicated. Merkel also asked Abe to explain how he intended to deal with the country's snowballing fiscal deficit in the meeting on the sidelines of a summit of the Group of Eight major nations in Northern Ireland, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said.
Digitimes:
  • Asustek Cuts 2Q Laptop, Tablet Shipment Target. Co. sees laptop and tablet shipments in 2Q to be 10% fewer than those in the previous quarter, citing CFO David Chang. Chang said 2Q sales may be NT$90b-95b.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Interbank Liquidity May Be Tight to July. China's interbank market liquidity may continue to be tight until the beginning of July, according to a commentary by reporter Wang Hui. The commentary cited a low likelihood of central bank intervention and relatively fewer maturing short-term open market instruments over the next few weeks.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 105.25 -2.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.10%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (JW/A)/.84
  • (FDS)/1.22
  • (LZB)/.28
  • (AVID)/.12
  • (ADBE)/.34
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Consumer Price Index for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in April.
  • The CPI Ex Food & Energy for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • Housing Starts for May are estimated to rise to 950K versus 853K in April.
  • Building Permits for May are estimated to fall to 975K versus 1017K in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (FLO) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Obama/Merkel meeting, German ZEW Index, BoE inflation report, Japan Trade Balance report, weekly retail sales reports, RBC Mining/Materials Conference, Wells Fargo Health Care Conference, Jefferies Consumer Conference, (UTX) analyst meeting, (PRU) investor day and the (BLK) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Nikkei Bounce, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.20 +.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -28.32%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -18.64%
  • NYSE Arms .89 -49.37%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.42 -1.92%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 153.94 -3.57%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 89.50 +.64%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 318.51 +7.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +.5 bp
  • TED Spread 23.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 191.0 +5 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $115.0/Metric Tonne +1.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.0 +15.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +39 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China Policy Bank Cuts Bond Sale Goal by 31% Amid Crunch. Agricultural Development Bank of China Co. scaled back the size of two bond offerings tomorrow by 31 percent as the worst cash crunch in at least seven years curbs demand for the securities. The Beijing-based policy bank said it will sell up to 8 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) of three-year notes, down from 13 billion yuan previously, according to a statement on ChinaBond, the nation’s biggest debt clearing house today. An issue of five-year debt was reduced to 10 billion yuan from 13 billion yuan. The lender has options for each tenor that would allow the original issuance targets to be met, the statement said. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding availability, has averaged 6.03 percent in June, the most since the National Interbank Funding Center began compiling a weighted average in 2006.
  • European Stocks Advance as Investors Weigh Fed Policy. European stocks rose to a one-week high, rebounding from their longest streak of weekly losses in 14 months, as investors awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for signs on the pace of stimulus reduction. Telefonica SA (TEF), Europe’s most indebted telephone company, climbed 2.4 percent after a report that AT&T Inc. had been keen to acquire the company. ABB Ltd. (ABBN) advanced 2.6 percent after the world’s largest supplier of power grids named a new chief executive officer. Saipem SpA plunged to a four-year low after cutting its 2013 guidance for the second time in six months. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7 percent to 293.25 at the close, for the first back-to-back gains this month.
  • Calpers Commodity Holdings Declined 5.5% in April to $1.214B. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, reported the value of its commodity holdings fell 5.5 percent in April from the previous month. The fund held $1.214 billion in commodities as of April 30, the most-recent data available, or 0.5 percent of the total assets listed at $263.944 billion, according to a monthly report posted on the fund’s website for today’s investment committee meeting. That’s down from $1.284 billion on March 31, or 0.5 percent of total assets of $257.395 billion. Commodities were the worst-performing asset class in the portfolio during the 12 months through April, dropping 9.8 percent, according to the report. All other asset groups increased, with a total fund return of 13.4 percent.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Snowden Says Obama’s Failed Promises Motivated Leaks. In response to a reader question about the president, Mr. Snowden wrote: “Obama’s campaign promises and election  gave me faith that he would lead us toward fixing the problems he outlined in his quest for votes. Many Americans felt similarly. Unfortunately, shortly after assuming power, he closed the door on investigating systemic violations of law, deepened and expanded several abusive programs, and refused to spend the political capital to end the kind of human rights violations like we see in Guantanamo, where men still sit without charge.’’
  • U.K. Prosecutors Likely to File Libor-Manipulation Charges. British prosecutors plan to file criminal fraud charges against former UBS AG and Citigroup Inc. trader Tom Hayes for allegedly trying to manipulate benchmark interest rates, according to people familiar with the plans. The planned charges, which could be filed by the U.K.'s Serious Fraud Office as soon as Tuesday in London, represent the first effort by British authorities to seek criminal penalties against someone they allege was involved in manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.
  • Ford(F) to Add Back Dashboard Buttons After Complaints. Ford Motor Co. is going back to buttons and knobs. Punished by third-party quality reports because of the difficulty of using its touch-screen multimedia system, called MyFord Touch, the auto maker will reprise tuning and volume knobs for the radio as it redesigns existing models, a top Ford executive said. It is a reversal for Ford, which has been a first-mover with installing mobile-phone-based technologies, voice recognition and touch screens in its vehicles. The systems have been a big selling point for Ford with its vehicles, but also have dragged down its reputation for quality.
  • Economists Wary as Fed's Next Forecast Looms. The Wall Street Journal's monthly survey of private-sector economists shows that forecasters on average expect the economy to grow 2.3% this year and 2.8% next year. The Fed is more optimistic. Its latest growth projections, made in March, average closer to 2.6% for 2013 and closer to 3.2% for 2014. At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will release its updated projections of growth, inflation and unemployment.
Fox News: 
  • IRS supervisor in DC scrutinized Tea Party groups' cases. A Washington-based IRS supervisor acknowledged she was personally involved in reviewing Tea Party applications for tax-exempt status as far back as 2010, Fox News confirms -- a detail that further challenges the agency's initial claim that the practice of singling out those groups was limited to a handful of employees in Ohio. 
CNBC:
  • Bank of America(BAC) Paid Bonuses to Foreclose: Lawsuit. Bank of America routinely denied qualified borrowers a chance to modify their loans to more affordable terms and paid cash bonuses to bank staffers for pushing homeowners into foreclosure, according to affidavits filed last week in a Massachusetts lawsuit.
  • Deals for Industries, Immigrants Tucked in Senate Bill. Foreign retirees could live in the United States for longer periods each year if they agree to make hefty cash investments in real estate. Overseas snowboard instructors could enter the USA under visas now reserved for athletes, and beach resorts could hire more lifeguards and groundskeepers from abroad. The massive immigration overhaul working its way through the Senate is peppered with benefits like these for specific industries and immigrant groups — even as it aims to tackle three core policy objectives: creating a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants in this country illegally, strengthening border security and increasing enforcement of laws that guard against the employment of undocumented workers.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Financial Times:
  • European Car Market Won't Grow Until 2019, Study Shows. Car sales in western Europe to drop to 12m in 2014 from 13.2m last yr, citing a report from AlixPartners. Europe will need to cut capacity by >2m vehicles by 2019 to have sustainable level of use. 42 of 100 biggest auto plants in Europe will be running at >75% capacity this yr vs 60 in 2011.
  • Fed likely to signal tapering move. Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.
Telegraph:
Bild-Zeitung:
  • Balancing Germany's federal budget takes priority over additional spending in next legislature, CSU head and Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer said.
Valor:
Restructuring: Flowers slams Europe over inaction


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
  • Brazil Govt Sees Serious Confidence Crisis. Govt recognizes that Brazilian and overseas investors continue to lack confidence in the country. Changing economic policy is no longer enough to regain confidence. Members of govt see need for President Dilma Rousseff to announce commitment to strengthen public accounts. Finance Minister Guido Mantega and Treasury Secretary Arno Augustin have had images tarnished by series of artifices used to reach fiscal targets. Govt expects effect of real's decline on prices in Brazil to be small for 4 reasons: GDP growth below expectations in 2013, tightening monetary policy, which tends to discourage price adjustments, falling commodities prices and reduced indexation of rates for energy/telecoms to exchange rate.
Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
CaixinOnline:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.28%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -.46% 2) Road & Rail -.36% 3) Gold & Silver -.35%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TEX, MDVN, ANAC, SA, IRE, TWC, LINE, MYGN, SIRO, GCI, WLT, LINE, KMR, MCC, ECPG, PTR, ETE, E, GNRC, MR, CHL, BC, DD, LULU, BONT, LPNT, WABC, CASY, CFR, MITT, MLU, OXM, RXN and LNCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UPL 2) CHS 3) EWJ 4) TEX 5) WLT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GM 2) BIDU 3) CMG 4) AXP 5) CLF
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.08%
Sector Outperformers:
  • I-Banking +2.09% 2) Internet +1.88% 3) Homebuilders +1.76%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRZO, NFLX, IRBT, DWA, MU and PTY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KR 2) TEX 3) TWC 4) AVNR 5) MYL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) COF 2) MRVL 3) SHLD 4) TIBX 5) CRZO
Charts: