Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Europe August Car Sales Drop as Demand Lowest on Record. European car sales fell in August, bringing deliveries this year to the lowest since records began in 1990, as record joblessness in the euro region hurt deliveries at Volkswagen AG (VOW), PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) and Fiat SpA. (F). Registrations dropped 4.9 percent to 686,957 vehicles from 722,458 cars a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement. Eight-month sales declined 5.2 percent to 8.14 million autos. “We’re still in red territory,” Florent Couvreur, a Paris-based analyst at CM-CIC Securities, said by phone. “When people say we’ve reached the bottom, I say, ‘watch out,’ because the market is still decreasing. The drop is a little less steep, but we’re still falling because of the bad macroeconomic environment.” 
  • Prada Weighed Down by Euro Strength as Earnings Miss Estimates. Prada SpA (PRP), the Italian owner of the Miu Miu and Church’s luxury brands, said the euro’s strength will weigh more heavily on full-year earnings than some analysts anticipate after first-half profit missed estimates. The currency’s appreciation against the yen and the dollar “may be possibly not fully considered in some of the forecasts that we have seen coming from the market at the moment,” Chief Financial Officer Donatello Galli said on a conference call. 
  • Merkel Says German Election Is Decision Time for Euro’s FutureChancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany’s election in five days will be a referendum on the euro’s future stability, as she appealed to voters to reward her handling of the debt crisis with a third term. Merkel, speaking at a rally of her Christian Democratic Union party in the eastern city of Magdeburg, cast the national vote on Sept. 22 as a decision between her policy of conditional bailouts for weaker euro countries and what she portrayed as plans by Germany’s opposition to pool the currency bloc’s debt.
  • European Stocks Retreat From a Five-Year High on Lloyds. European stocks declined from a five-year high as investors sold holdings in companies from Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) to Continental AG. Lloyds dropped 3.5 percent after the U.K. government sold a 3.2 billion-pound ($5.1 billion) stake in the lender. Continental and Galp Energia SGPS SA fell at least 2.5 percent as investors sold shares in the companies. Total SA (FP) retreated 1.3 percent following a report that Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA may dispose of its 4 percent stake in the French oil producer. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent to 311.95 at the close in London.
  • China Developer’s 20% Loan After Bank Rebuff Signals Risk. China property developer Zhang Fuguo was rejected by banks for a loan to help keep building two office towers in the central city of Zhengzhou. So he turned to a manufacturer of water and gas meters. The 50 million yuan ($8.2 million) loan last month at a 20 percent interest rate will help Zhang pay workers and buy materials and was like “delivering coal on a snowy day,” he said. It was less so for one board member at lender Henan Suntront Technology Co. (300259), who abstained from approval on concern that Zhang’s company would fail to repay the debt. So-called entrusted loans, in which banks are “entrusted” with funds as middlemen between companies, increasingly grease the wheels of China’s economy, withstanding a crackdown on shadow banking this year and rising to a record 293.8 billion yuan in August. The increase was part of a surge in non-bank credit that may add to default risks threatening Premier Li Keqiang’s efforts to sustain 7 percent expansion this decade
  • China Stocks Fall Most Since July as FDI Slows. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 2.1 percent to 2,185.56 at the close, the most since July 8. A report showed foreign-direct investment grew 0.6 percent last month, compared with the Bloomberg estimate of 12.5 percent growth. 
  • Crude Falls for Third Day as Syria Risk Wanes. WTI for October delivery declined $1.42, or 1.3 percent, to $105.17 a barrel at 2:22 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 22 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for November settlement slid $1.92, or 1.7 percent, to $108.15 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
  • Former NYSE CEO Thain Says Stock Dark Pools Should Be ClosedCIT Group Inc. (CIT) Chief Executive Officer John Thain, the former head of the New York Stock Exchange, said there’s too much fragmentation and insufficient transparency in the stock market. “Dark pools” that allow for trading of stocks outside of exchanges should be eliminated, Thain, 58, said in an interview with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” “The biggest problem is the fragmentation, you can trade stocks in 50 different places.”
  • Mass Shootings Fuel Fear, Account for Fraction of Murders. The mass slaughters listed in the report caused the deaths of 547 people. Over the same three decades through 2012, that’s less than a tenth of 1 percent of the 559,347 people the Federal Bureau of Investigation estimates were murdered in America.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Warren Buffett: Scrap ObamaCare and Start Over. You know things are bad for President Obama when even Warren Buffett has soured on Obamacare and says that "we need something else." Money Morning writes: "Healthcare costs in the United States are like a tapeworm eating at our economic body. "Those words come from famed investor Warren Buffett, who said he would scrap Obamacare and start all over. "'We have a health system that, in terms of costs, is really out of control,' he added. 'And if you take this line and you project what has been happening into the future, we will get less and less competitive. So we need something else.' "Buffett insists that without changes to Obamacare average citizens will suffer. "'What we have now is untenable over time,' said Buffett, an early supporter of President Obama. 'That kind of a cost compared to the rest of the world is really like a tapeworm eating, you know, at our economic body.'
  • Navy gunman had federal clearance despite disturbing history. Aaron Alexis, the Navy veteran who gunned down 12 people at a Washington military facility Monday, had his federal security clearance renewed just two months before his rampage, despite a disturbing history of psychological problems and violent behavior involving guns.
CNBC:
  • 'Out of control' Fed should be abolished: McNealy. (video) The Federal Reserve has become a "marketing department" for the government and "shouldn't be in any business at all," Scott McNealy, co-founder of SunMicrosystems and Harvard-trained economist, told CNBC on Tuesday.
  • Can the mortgage market crash again? During the height of the housing boom, in 2006 and 2007, one of the fundamental tenets of home mortgage lending flew out the window: the borrower's ability to repay the loan. A broad swath of lenders simply took it out of the equation, figuring that since home prices were rising so fast, borrowers could simply sell their way out of any trouble.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
U.S. Census Bureau:
Reuters:
  • U.S. SEC charges 23 firms in short-sale crackdown; 22 settle. Twenty-two investment firms will collectively pay more than $14.4 million in sanctions to settle civil charges in connection with a broad crackdown by federal regulators into illegal short-selling practices, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday.
Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
Corriere:
  • Berlusconi to Relaunch Party With Video Message Today. Video message today to include launch of reformed Forza Italia party. Berlusconi to declare he's "staying on the field, not giving up".

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.27%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) HMOs -1.20% 2) Agriculture -.45% 3) Biotech -.32%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • NTT, S, DK, BCS, BGFV, TCBI, PHG, ULTA, BERY, OUTR, BOHU, WERN, MTZ, GLT, TTWO, BTH, GPRE, FDS, SHOO, NSH, JKS, XONE, TAHO, KS, COTY, BMS, SWFT, CNW, RKT, CAF, CHEF, BITA and GCAP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ADBE 2) MON 3) AET 4) AKAM 5) JNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GOOG 2) YHOO 3) GIS 4) MOS 5) AMRN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.47%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +1.16% 2) Education +.88% 3) Oil Service +.79%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BOFI, CETV, KYTH, RPRX, ARO, EZCH, SWY, PERI, NQ, CLNE and HLF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RPRX 2) AEO 3)  WLL 4) SWKS 5) PFE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SWY 2) WMT 3) CMI 4) TXT 5) HPQ
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Assad Cheered in Damascus for Canny Survivor’s Delaying Tactics. Osama Salloum was on the balcony of his Damascus apartment last week when a procession of honking cars celebrating President Bashar al-Assad’s birthday passed by. The 34-year-old accountant joined the youths waving flags and singing patriotic songs not only because he wanted to mark Assad’s Sept. 11 birthday, “but also to express gratitude for the government’s wise policies that prevented a U.S. strike,” he said. “Syrian diplomacy has borne the best of fruits.” 
  • Kerry Says U.S. Isn’t Wavering on Seeking Assad’s Ouster. Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. isn’t softening its opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by making a deal that envisions his cooperation in securing and eliminating Syrian chemical weapons over the next nine months. Speaking to reporters in Paris shortly before a United Nations report confirmed the use in Syria of the nerve agent sarin, Kerry said yesterday that there’s no conflict between sending international chemical-weapons experts to work with Assad’s regime and the “strategic goal” of ending his rule. 
  • RBA Says Rate Cuts Still Possible, Signals No Moves Imminent. Australia’s central bank repeated it retains the option of reducing interest rates and said a further drop in the currency would aid the economy as resource investment slows, minutes of the Sept. 3 meeting showed. “Members agreed that the bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in notes of the meeting, at which it left its benchmark rate at a record low, released in Sydney today. “Some further decline in the exchange rate would be helpful.” 
  • China Stocks Fall for Third Day, Longest Losing Streak in Month. China’s stocks fell for a third day, the longest stretch of losses in a month, after foreign investment data trailed economists’ estimates. Consumer-staples producers and Shanghai-based port operators and airlines slid. Shanghai International Port (Group) Co. dropped the most in four weeks after UBS AG downgraded the stock to sell. China Eastern Airlines Corp. retreated at least 5 percent for a second day before details of the Shanghai free-trade zone will be released later this month. Kweichow Moutai Co. led declines for consumer-staples companies. A report showed foreign-direct investment grew 0.6 percent last month, compared with the median estimate of 12.5 percent growth compiled by Bloomberg. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.8 percent to 2,212.66 at 10:34 a.m.
  • Asia Stocks Fall From Four-Month High Before Fed Meeting. Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark regional index declining from a four-month high, as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting at which it is forecast to reduce the pace of its U.S. bond buying. Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), Asia’s biggest technology company, sank 2.5 percent in Seoul, retreating from the highest level since May. Daiichi Sankyo Co. (4568), a drugmaker that owns 64 percent of Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd., tumbled 5.7 percent in Tokyo after U.S. regulators restricted imports from one of the Indian drugmaker’s facilities. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4 percent as the equity market reopened after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 138.32 as of 11:38 a.m. in Hong Kong as nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge declined.
  • Rebar Trades Near Six-Week Low as China Steel Output Gains. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai traded near the lowest in more than six weeks as output climbed in China, the biggest user. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.3 percent to 3,636 yuan ($594) a metric ton and was at 3,642 yuan at 10:06 a.m. local time. Futures declined to 3,628 yuan yesterday, the lowest intra-day level for a most-active contract since July 31.
  • Fed Leader Doubt Erodes Low-Rate Message as QE Taper Looms. Federal Reserve officials will gather in their Washington board room this week to decide on policies that will unfold over the next two to three years without knowing who will lead the institution during that time. Yesterday’s announcement that Lawrence Summers has withdrawn his name from Obama’s list of candidates to succeed Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke threatens to weaken the central bank’s policy message by leaving the succession unsettled just as it considers scaling back record accommodation
  • NYSE Reviewing Upgrade as Possible Cause of Options Outage. NYSE Euronext (NYX:US) is looking into whether a software upgrade at a subsidiary disrupted a price feed that briefly halted U.S. options exchanges today. Securities Industry Automation Corp., the NYSE unit that oversees the quote dissemination service linking U.S. options markets, is focusing on a programming update that may have led to today’s halt, said Rich Adamonis, an NYSE Euronext spokesman.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • At Least 13 Killed in Washington Navy Yard Shooting. Pursuit of Another Potential Shooter Continues. A man who had been forced out of the military after a 2010 gun arrest opened fire inside a Navy building Monday morning, killing 12 people and injuring about a dozen more as he sprayed bullets into a cafeteria of unsuspecting military workers, officials said. Authorities said the alleged gunman, Aaron Alexis of Fort Worth, Texas, was killed in a shootout with police at the scene, but that wasn't the end to a chaotic day in the nation's capital that saw security officials lock down military buildings and the U.S. Senate, and cancel the Washington Nationals game scheduled later in the evening.
  • Yellen Is Now Top Fed Hopeful. White House Leans to Vice Chairwoman After Summers's Withdrawal From Consideration. Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen emerged as the front-runner to become the White House's nominee to lead the central bank, a day after Lawrence Summers pulled out of the contest amid congressional resistance, according to people familiar with the matter. 
  • How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story. Once Booming Yantian Looks for New Sources of Growth. Not long ago, this factory town in southeastern China was an emblem of the country's massive export boom. Today, it is a symbol of China's struggle to sustain a growth streak. Low wages, easy access to overseas markets, and a business-savvy leadership helped transform Yantian in the 1990s from a sleepy agricultural hamlet to a manufacturing hub with close to 150,000 people. By 1998, more than 400 foreign firms set up shop, churning out electronics, toys and watches for export. A golf course and high-end hotel sprang up to keep Japanese and Hong Kong factory bosses amused.
  • GM(GM) Developing Car to Rival Tesla(TSLA). Cost of Advanced Battery-Technology Remains Hurdle to Building Longer-Range Vehicles. General Motors Co. is developing an electric car that can go 200 miles on a charge for around $30,000, officials at the largest U.S. auto maker said, offering a challenge to luxury electric-car startup Tesla Motors Inc. Doug Parks, GM's vice president of global product programs, disclosed the effort on Monday at GM's battery laboratory and test facility in Warren, Mich., but didn't say when the car would be available. He said while the technology is available now, the cost of the batteries remains too high to be able to pull off the feat today.
  • Obama Feels a Pinch From Congressional Democrats. Resistance to Summers for Fed Role Suggests Softening Clout Ahead of Budget Talks. The Democratic uproar that sank Lawrence Summers's chances of taking charge of the Federal Reserve suggests that President Barack Obama's clout on Capitol Hill is eroding ahead of crucial decisions about government spending and the debt ceiling. Mr. Obama often singles out House Republicans for blocking his agenda in Congress. But as his second term plays out, he also is confronting restive factions within his own party that are uneasy with some of his policies.
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
  • Mosaic(MOS) cuts 3rd-quarter outlook for potash, phosphate. U.S. fertilizer company Mosaic Co cut its third-quarter outlook for the price and sales volume of potash and phosphate on Monday, saying crop nutrient markets had softened in the wake of the breakup of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC). The company's shares eased 0.9 percent in New York after markets closed.
Telegraph: 
  • Mario Draghi risks row with Germany over bank plan. Mario Draghi has put the European Central Bank on a collision course with Berlin after insisting that Europe needs a single authority to wind up failing banks — just two days after Germany said the idea was legally questionable.
 Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 108.75 -6.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.15%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ADBE)/.34
  • (FDS)/1.19
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST  
  • The Consumer Price Index for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • The CPI Ex Food & Energy for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
9:00 am EST 
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July are estimated at -$15.0B versus -$66.9B in June. 
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated to fall to 58 versus 59 in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Housing Price data, Eurozone Trade Balance report, UK Inflation Data, Germany ZEW Index, CBO Long Term Budget Forecast, weekly retail sales report, CSFB Chemical/Agricultural Conference, RBC Capital Financial Institutions Conference and the CSFB Small/Mid-Cap Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.26%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives -.22% 2) Networking -.16% 3) Restaurants +.15%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • MILL, GRPN, AAPL, HSNI, CBEY, NTLS, EZCH, PERI, ODFL, XONE, QIHU, UA, MW, EPAY, ARCP, NTLS, LRN, ALTR, NVS, IGTE, AWR, USM, GIMO, MTZ, SINA, BCEI, BID, RGR, ABFS and CTB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CVC 2) COH 3) CMI 4) KBH 5) HYG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BBRY 2) MSFT 3) FB 4) AAPL 5) GOOG
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.97%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +2.56% 2) HMOs +1.75% 3) Agriculture +1.59%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BFR, GTE, BZ, PKG, SOHU, RMTI, AVG, HTH, KS, HSC, ATI, TASR, LPX and UNXL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XLU 2) MW 3) EA 4) RSH 5) NFX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JBLU 2) AVB 3) CELG 4) SCTY 5) SWHC
Charts: