Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Coal +1.65% 2) Alt Energy +1.38% 3) Gaming +1.25%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ENV, BPL, SSW, SCTY, IGTE, FXCM, SAVE, SWY, VVUS, PCYC, INFY, DK, TSO, CTSH, CVRR, OSIR, IMPV, BLOX and ALJ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CNX 2) SCTY 3) EDC 4) VNDA 5) HUM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) AUXL 2) ISCA 3) SWY 4) JNJ 5) AMZN
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China Export Gains Understated on Fake-Data Distortions: Economy. China is poised to post its first
slowdown in export growth in three months, a result that may understate the strength of demand after fake reports inflated figures in the year-earlier period.
Growth from last month through April 2014 will be “depressed” because
of a high basis for comparison, Credit Agricole CIB says. Overseas
shipments probably grew 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier,
according to a Bloomberg News survey ahead of tomorrow’s
customs-administration report in Beijing, down from August’s 7.2 percent
and 9.8 percent in September 2012. The comparisons will complicate investors’ ability to gauge the strength of any economic rebound after two manufacturing
gauges trailed projections in September, limiting a recovery
that began earlier in the quarter. Additional skepticism over
trade figures builds on broader questions about the quality of
Chinese data from gross domestic product to jobs.
- Asian Stocks Rise as Bond Risk Falls; Won to Copper Gain.
Asian stocks rose a fourth day and bond risk in the region fell as U.S.
lawmakers continued talks on raising the nation’s debt limit to avoid a
default. Industrial metals climbed with emerging-market currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.3 percent by 11:17 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the longest rally in a month.
- Rubber Set for 1st Weekly Gain in 3 as Yen Weakens on Debt Talks. Rubber is heading for the first
weekly climb in three as optimism grew that U.S. lawmakers will
lift the debt ceiling to avert a default, weakening Japan’s currency and boosting the appeal of yen-based futures. The contract for March delivery rose as much as 2.7 percent
to 266.3 yen a kilogram ($2,709 a metric ton) on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange, the highest level since Oct. 1. Futures
traded at 265.5 yen at 10:17 a.m. and gained 4.4 percent this
week, the first rally since five days through Sept. 20.
- Cameron’s Housing-Market Loan Fix Seen as Bad Policy for Britain. Prime Minister David Cameron’s Help
to Buy plan to aid home buyers is the wrong policy for Britain,
economists said, adding to criticism of an initiative that was
ramped up just this week.
Two thirds of 31 economists described the measure as
“bad,” according to a Bloomberg News survey published today.
The prime minister this month accelerated the second phase of
the program, which gives people the chance to buy a home with a
down payment of as little as 5 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
- Obama, GOP Open Talks Over Temporary Debt Fix. Republicans, President Still Disagree Over Details. President
Barack Obama and House Republicans began discussions Thursday on a GOP
proposal to extend the nation's borrowing authority for six weeks,
marking a new opening in the budget stalemate that risks a U.S. debt
crisis.
- U.S. Rethinks How to Release Sensitive Economic Data. Potential Changes Driven From Unease Over High-Speed Trading Firms. Federal officials are discussing changes to how the government
releases sensitive economic data, seeking to bring the system in line
with fast-moving financial markets. While the talks are
preliminary, officials are driven by their growing concern about leaks
and their unease that high-speed trading firms can trade on
market-moving numbers before other investors, say people familiar with
the discussions.
- Andrew Puzder: ObamaCare and the Part-Time Economy. The White House insists that the health-care law has not affected hiring. That's not what the numbers show. There are times when the Obama administration makes statements so
disconnected from economic reality that you wonder if any White House
official has talked with anyone in business. A case in point: the
administration's mantra that ObamaCare's definition of full-time
employment as 30 or more hours per week had no effect on employers'
hiring practices.
Fox News:
- Deal or no deal? GOP back to drawing board on debt plan after Obama meeting. Republican lawmakers scrambled back to the drawing board late
Thursday to modify their plan for a short-term increase in the debt
ceiling, after President Obama apparently pushed back on the proposal
during a high-stakes White House meeting. The meeting broke up with no deal announced, despite optimism earlier
in the day that the two sides might agree. Senate Democratic Leader
Harry Reid also cast doubt on House Speaker John Boehner's plan. The day
ended like it began, with Americans still unsure when the partial
government shutdown will end, and the financial markets still uncertain
as to whether the country might miss next week's deadline to raise the
debt ceiling.
- Report: Obama administration brings chilling effect on journalism. The U.S. government's aggressive prosecution of leaks and efforts to
control information are having a chilling effect on journalists and
government whistle-blowers, according to a report released Thursday on
U.S. press freedoms under the Obama administration.
The Committee to Protect Journalists conducted its first examination
of U.S. press freedoms amid the Obama administration's unprecedented
number of prosecutions of government sources and seizures of
journalists' records. Usually the group focuses on advocating for press
freedoms abroad.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Macquarie:
- Downgraded (NVDA) to Underperform, target $14.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.0 -7.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.75 -5.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:55 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to fall to 75.6 versus 77.5 in September.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Powell speaking, ECB's Praet speaking, USDA Crop Report and the Canada Unemployment Rate could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is
50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 16.39 -16.33%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.58 +.96%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.37 -2.40%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.78 -15.23%
- ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -19.27%
- Total Put/Call .96 -26.72%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.90 -5.26%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.728 -5.83%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.28 +.37%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 278.99 -3.67%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 19.75 -1.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.50 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1 basis point
- Yield Curve 234.0 +5 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $133.0/Metric Tonne +.91%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.90 -7.4 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.90 -2.1 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my medical /retail/tech/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- European Stocks Rise on Signs of Compromise on U.S. Debt. European stocks rose the most in more than five weeks amid signs U.S. lawmakers will agree on a compromise deal to avoid an unprecedented default. Ladbrokes Plc rallied to a two-week high after a report
that Playtech Plc founder Teddy Sagi may have acquired an almost
3 percent stake in the bookmaker. CGG gained 2.1 percent after
saying third-quarter vessel-production rate jumped to a record.
Rheinmetall AG declined after Moody’s Investors Service lowered
its debt rating. The Stoxx 600 added 1.7 percent to 310.29, its highest
level since Sept. 2.
- WTI Rebounds on Signs U.S. Will Increase Debt Ceiling. WTI
for November delivery advanced $1.40 to settle at $103.01 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday’s settlement of $101.61 was
the lowest since July 3. Volume was 28 percent above the 100-day moving
average at 2:38
p.m. WTI is up 12 percent this year.
- Obama Fundraiser Said to Seek $1 Billion for Private Fund.
Barack Obama’s top individual fundraiser, a former technology executive
who collected millions of dollars for the president, is seeking as much
as $1 billion for a private-equity fund that will invest in
infrastructure and renewable energy, according to a person with
knowledge of the matter. Frank White Jr. has teamed up with two other
Obama backers, Shomik Dutta and two-time Grammy Award-winning rapper
Prakazrel Michel, to establish a Washington-based money-management firm
called DuSable Capital Management LLC, according to a regulatory filing.
DuSable plans to raise $500 million to $1 billion, said
the person, who requested anonymity because the details are
private.
White’s new firm joins a small group of money managers
founded by former political figures and public officials, who
have sought to parlay their connections to invest in industries
that rely on direct or indirect government support.
Wall Street Journal:
- GOP to Propose Temporary Debt-Ceiling Increase. Plan Won't Include Additional Policy Conditions. The House Republican plan to extend the debt ceiling for six weeks
would permanently ban the Treasury Department from using extraordinary
measures to avoid default, congressional aides said. The provision would ban practices, used by Democratic and
Republican administrations for decades, which have effectively allowed
the Treasury to limit investments in pensions and other funds when the
government bumps up against its borrowing limit. These steps have
extended the time that Treasury can continue borrowing and paying the
nation's bills while Congress debates terms for raising the debt
ceiling.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
IBD:
Reuters:
- Fed's Bullard: fiscal problems make Oct QE cut less likely. The Federal Reserve is less
likely to reduce its bond-buying program this month given the
U.S. government shutdown and resulting lack of economic data, as
well as the ongoing debate over the debt ceiling, a top central
bank policymaker said on Thursday.
- U.S. House debt limit plan to bar Treasury 'extraordinary' moves. A plan offered by U.S. House
of Representatives Republicans to temporarily raise government
borrowing authority would prohibit the Treasury Department from
using "extraordinary measures" to continue borrowing once it
hits up against the new limit, according to a senior House
Republican aide.
- U.S. retailers' September sales rise modestly, shoppers wary. A group of eight U.S. retailers, excluding drugstores,
reported a 2.2 percent rise in September same-store sales, lower
than the 3.1 percent growth analysts had expected, the Thomson Reuters same-store sales index showed. Gap Inc will report after markets close on Thursday.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +.30% 2) Utilities +.40% 3) Gold & Silver +.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CTXS, RGP, HUBG, BKE, DGX, ALGN, LNN, SSNI, LTD, GMCR, BPL, DECK, MW, MZOR, STJ, VMI, TDC, CYH, SHLD, LH, TRLA, BPT, NGVC and DGX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) TWC 2) AKAM 3) AKS 4) BBY 5) PETM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) RGP 2) CTXS 3) LF 4) RT 5) HUBG
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +2.79% 2) Oil Tankers +2.50% 3) Road & Rail +2.29%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- PVR, IGTE, SYNA, LRN, ACAD, AFSI, RBA, ORAN, OMX, LINTA, CLDX, BBY, XOOM, XPO, DK, QCOR, PBF, CONN, NFLX, AFOP, LCI, TWC, ALKS and GILD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) GCI 2) CTXS 3) AKAM 4) TSO 5) CL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) LMT 2) BA 3) AMZN 4) GOOG 5) IBM
Charts:
