Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,761.64 +.11%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,761.64 +.11%

• DJIA 15,615.50 +.29%

• NASDAQ 3,922.04 -.54%

• Russell 2000 1,095.67 -2.03%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.64 unch.

• Wilshire 5000 18,489.03 -.18%

• Russell 1000 Growth 821.38 +.04%

• Russell 1000 Value 886.85 -.02%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 437.16 +1.14%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,384.67 +.37%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 845.27 -.10%

• Transports 7,047.77 +.55%

• Utilities 504.65 -.38%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 106.0 -.42%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.66 +.08%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,139.94 -.04%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 941.74 -.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 194,884 -.51%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 200 -432

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 24.14 +49.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 299,196 -1.23%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,785,295 -2.17%

• Total Put/Call .92 unch.

• OEX Put/Call .99 +312.50%

• ISE Sentiment 112.0 +24.44%

• NYSE Arms .67 -13.92%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.28 +1.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.29 +8.28%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.12 +7.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.60 +7.23%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,782.48 -.04%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.669 Trillion +.04%

• AAII % Bulls 45.0 -8.6%

• AAII % Bears 21.5 +22.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 274.96 -2.69%

• Crude Oil 94.61 -3.35%

• Reformulated Gasoline 254.19 -1.20%

• Natural Gas 3.51 -5.47%

• Heating Oil 288.23 -1.03%

• Gold 1,350.50 -2.73%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.97 +1.33%

• Copper 329.85 +1.01%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 335.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.30 USD/Ton +1.50%

• Lumber 368.10 +1.85%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,388.20 -2.92%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.70% -30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1075 -.74%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.18 +.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.30 -11.7 points
• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.80 -3.20 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18

• US Dollar Index 80.72 +1.90%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.86 -.97%

• Yield Curve 231.0 +10 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.62% +11 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.800 Trillion +.12%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.21 -19.37%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.0 +4.83%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 68.38 -.89%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 103.55 +3.33%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 233.26 +8.31%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 112.0 +3.22%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 694.31 +1.36%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 364.0 -8 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -5 basis points

• TED Spread 20.25 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.25 +3.20%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 116.60 -6.99%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 277.66 +6.11%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 110.0 -2.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.684 Trillion +1.18%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,081.50 +1.80%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 356,300 +8,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.10% -3 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 483.70 +6.42%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.60 -1.5 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.20% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.27/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,504 -11.94%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,011.55 +3.64%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 +18.18%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,231 -1.31%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.2%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +2.3%

• Restaurants +1.9%

• Semis +1.8%

• HMOs +1.8%

• Hospitals +1.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -2.5% 

• Papers -3.6%

• Homebuilders -4.9%

• Education -5.6%

• Gold & Silver -7.7%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)

• ZLTQ, NTRI, FLDM, NUVA, CRR, MSTR, DWA, BGFV, FARO, XYL, LOCK, CCIX, BWLD, THRM, KFRC, DIN, ATRC, PBI, POWI, MCHP, SCBT, ROG, TRI, ACHC, ZINC, EPIQ, STBZ, LOPE and PCCC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (45)

• N, EXLS, ALSN, CAP, DATA, CVLT, QLIK, AGCO, PCL, MSM, EXAM, MASI, HWAY, WU, CROX, CRUS, MWV, IPHS, SFLY, HGG, FDP, CYNO, PLT, SANM, MDAS, BLKB, WTW, SPSC, ZEUS, WPP, DAN, DLR, PRXL, EW, AVP, DCO, TNGO, BBOX, AAWW, GTLS, JIVE, STRA, VOLC, RATE and BYD

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Better US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst, Transport/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.53 -1.60%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.94 -.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.60 +3.86%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.11 -1.06%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113,0 -3.42%

• Total Put/Call .93 +5.68%

• NYSE Arms .69 -45.03% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.77 +1.33%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.62 -.69%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.38 -2.31%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 277.54 +2.89%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 20.25 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 231.0 +6 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.30/Metric Tonne +2.58%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.30 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.80 +2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -3 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +156 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Draghi’s Deflation Risk Complicates Recovery: Euro Credit. A price slowdown could turn into a negative spiral that derails the recovery in the euro region. While the 17-nation economy exited six quarters of recession in the three months through June, it still has record unemployment and shrinking bank lending. 

• Ukraine Rating Cut to Greek Level by S&P as Devaluation Seen. Ukraine’s debt rating was cut to the same junk level as Greece by Standard & Poor’s, which said the government is struggling to weather a shortage of foreign currency, increasing the likelihood of a hryvnia devaluation. The rating company lowered Ukraine’s long-term sovereign credit rating one step to B-, six levels below investment grade, with a negative outlook, according to a statement released today. That leaves the eastern European nation on par with Greece and Belize, both of which have restructured debt in the past several years. 

• RBS Sees ‘Substantial’ Full-Year Loss, Creates Bad Bank. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc expects to post a “substantial” full-year loss after transferring 38.3 billion pounds ($61 billion) of its worst loans to an internal bad bank under government pressure. Britain’s biggest publicly owned lender expects to log as much as 4.5 billion pounds of writedowns in the fourth quarter as it starts to sell the loans, Edinburgh-based RBS said in a statement today. It will also speed up plans to sell its Citizens Financial Group Inc. unit to bolster capital. 

• European Stocks Drop, Paring Fourth Weekly Advance. European stocks dropped, paring a weekly gain, as Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Renault SA fell, while investors weighed the U.S. manufacturing data to gauge the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program. RBS slid 7.5 percent after predicting a “substantial” annual loss because of writedowns. Renault declined 5 percent after its partner Nissan Motor Co. cut its full-year profit forecast. Vodafone Group Plc rose to the highest price in 12 1/2 years after people familiar with the matter said AT&T Inc. is exploring a takeover of the company. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.3 percent to 321.5 points.

• Commodities Tumble to Four-Month Low as Crude, Gold Lead Losses. Commodities dropped to a four-month low, paced by declines in crude oil and gold, on signs of climbing supplies of raw materials at a time when the prospect of reduced Federal Reserve stimulus may cut demand. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials lost 1.2 percent to 615.14 at 11:54 a.m. in New York, after touching 614.12, the lowest since July 1. West Texas Intermediate fell below $95 a barrel for the first time since June. Gold reached a two-week low, while coffee extended its longest slump since at least 1972. Cotton fell to the lowest since January.

• China Home Prices Jump by Most This Year as Demand Defies Curbs. China’s new home prices jumped by the most this year in October as homebuyers defied the government’s property curbs and developers offered more high-priced apartments to tap demand. The average price surged 10.7 percent last month from a year earlier to 10,685 yuan ($1,753) per square meter (10.76 square feet), SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the nation’s biggest real estate website owner, said in a statement after a survey of 100 cities. Prices rose 1.24 percent from September, the 17th consecutive month of increases.

• Japan Denies Disrupting Chinese Military Exercises in Pacific. Japan denied disrupting recent Chinese military exercises in the west Pacific Ocean that prompted an official protest, the latest friction between Asia’s two biggest economies embroiled in a territorial dispute.

• Fed to Test Banks Against Interest Rate Rise, Housing Collapse. The Federal Reserve said it will examine how the biggest banks might react to a jump in long-term interest rates and another housing crash as it released the next round of stress-test scenarios designed to monitor the ability of the U.S. financial system to withstand economic shocks. The central bank in two adverse scenarios will measure the impact from rising prices in some U.S. property markets and tightening spreads on high-yield, high-risk loans and bonds, according to a release by the Fed today in Washington.

• Plosser Sees Inflation as Risk When Fed Unwinds Balance Sheet. Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said inflation will be a concern as the Fed unwinds its balance sheet following unprecedented asset purchases. “We have created over $2 trillion of excess reserves that are sitting on the balance sheets of the banks, it’s just sitting there, it’s not inflationary,” Plosser said today on CNBC television. “It will be inflationary when that starts to flow out of the banking system, that’s when we’ll have to start worrying about inflation.”  

• Health Consumers Finding Out They Were Sold a Lemon by Megan McArdle.

• Dollar Rises for Sixth Day as Treasuries, Commodities Retreat. The dollar rose for a sixth day and Treasuries slumped as faster-than-forecast growth in manufacturing fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities dropped to a four-month low. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.4 percent as of 2:10 p.m. in New York. Ten-year Treasury yields added seven basis points to 2.62 percent, the highest level in two weeks.

Wall Street Journal:

• 'Several' Injured After LAX Shooting; Suspect in Custody. FAA Curtails Planes Following Incident. A gunman opened fire at Los Angeles International Airport Friday morning, hitting several people and causing the shutdown of at least one terminal before being taken into custody, police said.

• Bubble Trouble for Tesla(TSLA). Tesla's stock carries an extraordinarily high valuation and turns over rapidly—two characteristics of irrational investor exuberance. That hissing sound? It’s the air coming out of Tesla Motors’ shares. The electronic-car maker’s stock fell 17.3% in October, registering its first monthly decline since February, and the worst since 2010. Even so, it is up 372% so far this year, a performance that marks it out as a potential bubble. 

• Obama's Health Care Woes Continue. (video)

• Large Banks to Be Tested on New Standard.

• Auto Makers Report Strong October Sales. Gains Show U.S. Consumers Willing to Make Big Purchases Despite Government Shutdown.

Fox News:

• Gunman in LAX shooting wounded, in custody, 3 injured, officials say. The gunman in a shooting Friday at Los Angeles International Airport was wounded and taken into custody after prompting authorities to evacuate a terminal and stop flights headed for the city from taking off from other airports, officials say. A law enforcement source tells Fox News that the suspect may be a former or current TSA employee.

CNBC:

• Balance sheet shows US $16 trillion in the hole. Anyone who ran a company with a balance sheet that looked like the U.S. probably wouldn't have a company anymore. The picture painted by the federal balance for fiscal year 2012 shows a nation with a negative net worth of more than $16 trillion, according to the Treasury Department's year-end reports and calculations from banking analyst Dick Bove.

Zero Hedge: 

• Bubblespotting With Jim Bullard.

• Manufacturing ISM Prints At Highest Since April 2011; "No Impact From Government Shutdown". (graph)

• GM "Stuffs Channels" At Fastest Pace In Its Post-Bankruptcy History; Volt Sales Plunge 32%. (graph)

• Nasdaq Options Market Halted For Over An Hour.

• Bank Of America(BAC): "It's Getting Frothy, Man".

Business Insider: 

• Here's Everything You Need To Know About The Growing Investigation Into Rigging The Global Currency Market.

• CHART OF THE DAY: The 'Forward-ISM' Is Sending A Troubling Signal.

Reuters:

• Reduce QE3 given labor market rebound, Fed's Lacker says. A top Federal Reserve official repeated on Friday that the U.S. labor market has recovered enough in the last 14 months to allow the central bank to reduce its bond-buying stimulus. "On a number of different dimensions for me personally it looks like labor force conditions have improved pretty significantly" since the latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) was launched in September, 2012, said Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, a hawkish policymaker. "The cumulative fall in the unemployment rate, the cumulative increase in employment are the key things," he added at a Philadelphia meeting of the Global Interdependence Center.

La Stampa:

Restructuring: Flowers slams Europe over inaction


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true

• Letta Says Populist Movements Risk Destroying Europe. Italian premier says next Eruopean Parliament risks becoming "the most anti-European" in its history because of gains by populist movements.

Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.95%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.10% 2) Homebuilders -2.24% 3) Education -2.06%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• APAM, BRKR, TOWR, GTLS, NPO, FRM, CVRR, WCG, IPGP, NQ, AIG, AXL, DRC, ABX, OPLK, WDC, CEC, SSNI, CCMP, EDMC, HOS, DATA, IRG, OCN, MSG, SYNA, ARRS, SLRC, BLT, ZLTQ, EGN, HME, STRA, JIVE, KOG, OCN, IDCC, DRQ, EGOV, ALDW and ELLI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MRO 2) JDSU 3) X 4) FSLR 5) WDC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSO 2) IPI 3) C 4) IPI 5) PETM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.11%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.02% 2) Steel +.86% 3) Airlines +.35%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GDOT, OEH, FSLR, EPAY, OSIR, LINE, MRC, BBG, GBX, LNCO, TRMB, NATI, HWAY, UNTD, MDVN, SPR and NEE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ADSK 2) SWN 3) AEO 4) NTRI 5) CVA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) T 2) BSX 3) FSLR 4) NFLX 5) BLMN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume