Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Road & Rail +.41% 2) Homebuilders +.37% 3) Computer Services +.29%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- AWAY, RDA, LPSN, TPX, JOE, BR, FLTX, DXCM, MW, FWLT, CLDX, AEO, RIG, UNXL, SSYS, HTWR, ACIW, RPTP, BZH, PMTC, FNP, BKD, MTDR and TOL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) HK 2) IGT 3) BMRN 4) CLDX 5) FOXA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) JCP 2) LMT 3) AEO 4) K 5) WFC
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asia Stocks Slip With U.S. Futures; Aussie Drops on Jobs.
Asian stocks fell and copper rose before U.S. economic reports and the
European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Australia’s dollar weakened
against all its major peers after disappointing jobs data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (TPX) slid 0.5 percent as of 12:19 p.m. in Tokyo.
- Rebar Climbs on Speculation Air Quality Efforts May Curb Output.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai rose on speculation that
efforts to improve air quality in China may crimp production. Rebar
for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, rose as much as 1 percent to 3,677 yuan ($603) per metric ton,
the biggest gain since Nov. 1.
Futures traded at 3,672 yuan at 11:15 a.m. local time.
- Nickel Declines to Two-Week Low on Supply Outlook.
Nickel dropped to a two-week low in London as record inventories are
fueling concern that ample supplies will overwhelm demand for the metal,
used to make stainless steel. Copper also slid. Stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange, which have
surged 71 percent this year, reached an all-time high of 239,958
metric tons yesterday. Supply will exceed demand this year by
120,000 tons, up from a 92,000-ton surplus in 2012, according to
Barclays Plc.
- Technology Rally Sends Nasdaq Puts to
Lowest Since 2010: Options. Options traders are charging the least in
three years to bet the Nasdaq 100 Index will fall, cutting prices as
investor demand for faster-growing companies fuels gains in stocks from
Netflix Inc.(NFLX) to Facebook Inc.(FB). Puts with an exercise price 10%
below the PowerShares QQQ Trust cost 5.6 points more than calls betting
on a 10% gain, according to three-month data compiled by Bloomberg. The
price relationship known as skew for the etf tracking the Nasdaq 100
reached 5.29 on Oct. 21, the lowest level since May 2010.
- Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion Pricing IPO Above Offer Range. Twitter
Inc. raised $1.82 billion in its initial public offering, seizing on
demand for its shares to price the stock above a proposed range. The
sale, the largest IPO by a technology company since Facebook Inc.’s
debut in May 2012, values the short-messaging website at $14.2 billion.
Twitter sold 70 million shares at $26 each, after offering them for $23
to $25, the San Francisco-based company said in a tweet. Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. led the sale, working with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase
& Co.
Wall Street Journal:
- FAA to Map Out Drone Rules. The Federal Aviation Administration is
expected to say Thursday that no major privacy-protection initiatives
are necessary before opening U.S. airspace to civilian drones, a finding
likely to stoke an outcry amid heightened concerns about the
government's surveillance capabilities. In
addition to that general policy on privacy protections, industry
officials familiar with details of the plan expect FAA chief
Michael Huerta
to disclose a multiyear regulatory road map intended to
eventually pave the way for extensive commercial operations of so-called
remotely piloted aerial vehicles nationwide. The
Department of Homeland Security previously adopted a similar view on
privacy safeguards, but the FAA is the lead agency responsible for
developing the
Obama
administration's comprehensive policy for nonfederal domestic
uses of drones. If the FAA's position prevails, it could remove a major
stumbling block for the budding industry while speeding up federal
approvals for a variety of applications.
- Edie Sundby's Choice.
The ObamaCare lessons in a cancer patient's cancelled insurance. Edie
Littlefield
Sundby may not have thought she'd ignite a national debate when
the stage-4 cancer survivor asked us to publish her Monday op-ed on
losing her oncologist due to the Affordable Care Act. But she certainly
has, and it's important to understand why. Mrs. Sundby and millions
like her must be denied their medical choices if ObamaCare is going to
work as its liberal planners intend.
- Carl Schramm: How ObamaCare Rips Off the 'Young Healthies'.
If universal coverage is the goal, inexpensive, simple catastrophic
health plans will do. When ObamaCare is under attack, its defenders
retreat to several well-worn claims. Among them is a provision that
compels insurance companies to allow parents to keep their "children"
ages of 21 to 26 on their family policies. Yet this part of the
Affordable Care Act was not engineered in response to any noticeable
interest group. Instead, political considerations are responsible for
the
provision—which is an unnecessary and a deceptive ripoff of the "young
healthies."
Fox News:
- Obama meets with Senate Democrats anxious over health care law. President Obama on Wednesday sought to assuage anxious Democrats who
are worried that ObamaCare’s troubled rollout is going to come back to
haunt them during the 2014 midterm elections. “There’s a lot of pent-up frustration” among Senate Democrats who are
facing voters next year, a party source familiar with the meeting told
Fox News.
CNBC:
- Whole Foods(WFM) cuts outlook; Shares drop. Whole Foods Market on Wednesday reported same-store sales that decelerated in the fourth
quarter and the grocer lowered its sales forecast for fiscal 2014,
sending shares down in after hours trading.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- A Clash of Goals for China’s Leader. China’s president, Xi Jinping, is about to plunge the country and
himself into a risky experiment: an attempt to carry out market-driven
economic overhauls while reinforcing the Communist Party’s pillars of
political and ideological control. This mixed agenda has magnified
doubts about whether he can deliver on his promises of transformation.
Reuters:
- The uncomfortable truth in China's property market. In defying four years of official
cooling efforts, China's soaring house prices reveal an
uncomfortable truth: government is one of the biggest obstacles
to the success of taming the market. State income is so entwined in the need for rising land
prices that policy efforts to try to curb the house market
create an inherent conflict of interest.
Financial News:
- China May Further Regulate Interbank Business. China is studying further regulating interbank business such as placing caps on bank proprietary "non-standard" debt purchases and wealth product investment in non-standard assets, citing a person familiar with the matter. So-called "quasi-loan" reverse repo agreement sales may also be halted, the report said. Banks may be required to set aside provisions for non-standard assets, according to the report.
Evening Recommendations
RBC:
- Rated (TWTR) Outperform, target $33.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.50 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 108.25 -1.0 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 335K versus 340K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2875K versus 2881K prior.
- Advance 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.5% gain in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.8% gain in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +.6% gain in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +.6% gain in 2Q.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for September is estimated to fall to $12.0B versus $13.625B in August.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Stein speaking, ECB rate decision, BoE rate decision, 3Q Mortgage Delinquencies, 3Q Mortgage Foreclosures, Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index, (OII) Analyst Day, (MJN) Investor Day, (SWI) Analyst Day and the (AA) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.93 -2.56%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.11 +.47%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.05 +1.12%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.09 -5.84%
- ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -32.14%
- Total Put/Call .82 +19.48%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.02 -1.98%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 112.71 -1.39%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.0 unch.
- Emerging Market CDS Index 280.72 -1.19%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
- Yield Curve 235.0 -1 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $137.10/Metric Tonne +.22%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index .4 +.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.70 +.7 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +5 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Brent Crude Traders Claim Proof BFOE Boys Rigged Market. Four
longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit
that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed -- and that they
can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc
(BP/), Statoil ASA (STL), and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with
Morgan Stanley and energy
traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot
prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The
North Sea benchmark is used to price more than half the world’s crude
and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline
and heating oil.
- European Stocks Advance as Alstom, ING Rise on Earnings.
European stocks climbed to a five-year high after companies from Alstom
SA to ING Groep NV posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, and
as industrial data from Germany and the U.K. improved. Alstom gained the
most in 16 months after posting operating profit that exceeded
estimates and saying it will seek to raise as much as 2 billion euros
($2.7 billion) from asset sales. ING jumped 3.5 percent after net income
beat projections. Adecco SA (ADEN) rose 3.6 percent after the world’s
largest provider of temporary workers predicted that demand for flexible
labor will increase in Europe as the economy recovers. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.4 percent to 323.26 at
the close of trading, its highest level since May 22, 2008.
- Yellen Met With Blankfein, Dimon as Prospects as Fed Chief Rose. As
speculation grew that Federal
Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen would be nominated to lead the
central bank, her appointment book beginning in April became peppered
with meetings with the titans of finance. Yellen’s calendars from
February through July, obtained by Bloomberg News through a Freedom of
Information Act request, show 30-minute meetings or phone calls with
chief executive officers from some of the biggest banks. These included
John Stumpf of Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) on April 3, Jamie Dimon of
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) on April 10, James Gorman of Morgan
Stanley on April 15 and Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on
June 7.
Fox News:
- Virginia squeaker sends shivers through Dems. Vulnerable Democrats must have watched in dismay as Democrat Terry McAuliffe barely
clung to victory on Tuesday. Having spent three times more money than
his rival and with the backing of his popular patrons, Bill and Hillary Clinton,
McAulliffe was breezing to victory just three weeks ago. But his
once-stout lead in the polls over Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli
nearly vanished as voter outrage over the crash landing of ObamaCare
nearly wrecked the race. A double-digit lead turned into a
three-point
scrape. Exit polls showed intense opposition to ObamaCare that helped
Cuccinelli, who was written off by the national GOP and who had to lug
along the
scandal-plagued administration of Republican incumbent Gov. Bob McDonnell.
CNBC:
- Stand by…a hefty drop's on the way: Nomura's Janjuah. Global stock markets are set to peak in the next few months but hungry
investors should beware, according to Bob Janjuah, Nomura's uber-bearish
strategist, who believes a hefty dip in global stock markets is just
around the corner.
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
MNI:
- US MBA Text: Refis -8.0%; Mkt Composite -7.0% Nov 1 Week. Mortgage applications decreased 7.0
percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers
Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending
November 1, 2013. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume,
decreased 7.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On
an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous
week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week. The
seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier and
is at its lowest level since the end of December 2012. The unadjusted Purchase
Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was unchanged from
the same week one year ago.
Washington Post:
- The Sin of Omission in Obamacare. Among the many rules I grew up with, two stand out. The first was to
never call someone a liar, which was considered the worst character
indictment one could issue. The accuser had best be prepared to fight or
be fleet of foot. The other was a dictum so oft- repeated that it is permanently
tattooed on my brain: “If you’ll lie by omission, you’ll lie by
commission.”
Newsmax:
- Reuters Poll: 56% of Uninsured Oppose Obamacare. The uninsured view the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,
commonly known as Obamacare, more favorably since online marketplaces
opened - 44 percent compared with 37 percent in September, according to
the Reuters/Ipsos poll. It found that 56 percent oppose the program
compared with 63 percent in September.
Reuters:
- Brazil mobile market shrinks, first time in 5 yrs. Brazil's mobile phone market saw a net decline in
subscribers in September, shrinking 0.06 percent to 268.3
million active phone lines, according to phone regulator Anatel.
It was the first monthly drop since June 2006.
The numbers highlighted a shift in Brazil's cooling wireless
market from a race for market share to a push for profitability
as sales stagnate.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -2.30% 2) Coal -1.94% 3) Alt Energy -1.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- TSLA, TRNX, IRG, ITMN, VRSK, PHMD, LAYN, MELI, ANF, MCEP, NPSP, BBRG, TNGO, QUAD, JCOM, QEP, HCLP, KND, CLH, YRCW, HURN, CTRP, YY, AEIS, Z, IIVI, URS, ZLTQ, GPOR, CLMT, HFC, QEP, CLH, DVN, AMRI, FOSL, LYV, INCY, TRLA, AEGR, BAH, PXD, LGND, STRZA, TNGO, REXX and JCOM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HMA 2) CHRW 3) IGT 4) FOSL 5) FDX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) VIP 2) PCYC 3) FSLR 4) MELI 5) RRGB
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Software +1.19% 2) Gold & Silver +1.19% 3) Utilities +.74%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ECOM, IMPV, OXBT, BCOR, BEAT, OPEN, TRAK, ECYT, REGI, SUNE, ESV, RL, KERX, PNK, EBAY, WWWW, RMTI, VOYA and LBTYA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CVC 2) CONN 3) SUNE 4) KERX 5)VRNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) F 2) ANF 3) RL 4) CSCO 5) OPEN
Charts:
