Thursday, November 07, 2013

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Asia Stocks Slip With U.S. Futures; Aussie Drops on Jobs. Asian stocks fell and copper rose before U.S. economic reports and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Australia’s dollar weakened against all its major peers after disappointing jobs data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (TPX) slid 0.5 percent as of 12:19 p.m. in Tokyo
  • Rebar Climbs on Speculation Air Quality Efforts May Curb Output. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai rose on speculation that efforts to improve air quality in China may crimp production. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose as much as 1 percent to 3,677 yuan ($603) per metric ton, the biggest gain since Nov. 1. Futures traded at 3,672 yuan at 11:15 a.m. local time
  • Nickel Declines to Two-Week Low on Supply Outlook. Nickel dropped to a two-week low in London as record inventories are fueling concern that ample supplies will overwhelm demand for the metal, used to make stainless steel. Copper also slid. Stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange, which have surged 71 percent this year, reached an all-time high of 239,958 metric tons yesterday. Supply will exceed demand this year by 120,000 tons, up from a 92,000-ton surplus in 2012, according to Barclays Plc.
  • Technology Rally Sends Nasdaq Puts to Lowest Since 2010: Options. Options traders are charging the least in three years to bet the Nasdaq 100 Index will fall, cutting prices as investor demand for faster-growing companies fuels gains in stocks from Netflix Inc.(NFLX) to Facebook Inc.(FB). Puts with an exercise price 10% below the PowerShares QQQ Trust cost 5.6 points more than calls betting on a 10% gain, according to three-month data compiled by Bloomberg. The price relationship known as skew for the etf tracking the Nasdaq 100 reached 5.29 on Oct. 21, the lowest level since May 2010.
  • Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion Pricing IPO Above Offer Range. Twitter Inc. raised $1.82 billion in its initial public offering, seizing on demand for its shares to price the stock above a proposed range. The sale, the largest IPO by a technology company since Facebook Inc.’s debut in May 2012, values the short-messaging website at $14.2 billion. Twitter sold 70 million shares at $26 each, after offering them for $23 to $25, the San Francisco-based company said in a tweet. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led the sale, working with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • FAA to Map Out Drone Rules. The Federal Aviation Administration is expected to say Thursday that no major privacy-protection initiatives are necessary before opening U.S. airspace to civilian drones, a finding likely to stoke an outcry amid heightened concerns about the government's surveillance capabilities. In addition to that general policy on privacy protections, industry officials familiar with details of the plan expect FAA chief Michael Huerta to disclose a multiyear regulatory road map intended to eventually pave the way for extensive commercial operations of so-called remotely piloted aerial vehicles nationwide. The Department of Homeland Security previously adopted a similar view on privacy safeguards, but the FAA is the lead agency responsible for developing the Obama administration's comprehensive policy for nonfederal domestic uses of drones. If the FAA's position prevails, it could remove a major stumbling block for the budding industry while speeding up federal approvals for a variety of applications. 
  • Edie Sundby's Choice. The ObamaCare lessons in a cancer patient's cancelled insurance. Edie Littlefield Sundby may not have thought she'd ignite a national debate when the stage-4 cancer survivor asked us to publish her Monday op-ed on losing her oncologist due to the Affordable Care Act. But she certainly has, and it's important to understand why. Mrs. Sundby and millions like her must be denied their medical choices if ObamaCare is going to work as its liberal planners intend
  • Carl Schramm: How ObamaCare Rips Off the 'Young Healthies'. If universal coverage is the goal, inexpensive, simple catastrophic health plans will do. When ObamaCare is under attack, its defenders retreat to several well-worn claims. Among them is a provision that compels insurance companies to allow parents to keep their "children" ages of 21 to 26 on their family policies. Yet this part of the Affordable Care Act was not engineered in response to any noticeable interest group. Instead, political considerations are responsible for the provision—which is an unnecessary and a deceptive ripoff of the "young healthies."
Fox News: 
  • Obama meets with Senate Democrats anxious over health care law. President Obama on Wednesday sought to assuage anxious Democrats who are worried that ObamaCare’s troubled rollout is going to come back to haunt them during the 2014 midterm elections. “There’s a lot of pent-up frustration” among Senate Democrats who are facing voters next year, a party source familiar with the meeting told Fox News.
CNBC: 
  • Whole Foods(WFM) cuts outlook; Shares drop. Whole Foods Market on Wednesday reported same-store sales that decelerated in the fourth quarter and the grocer lowered its sales forecast for fiscal 2014, sending shares down in after hours trading.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
New York Times:
  • A Clash of Goals for China’s Leader. China’s president, Xi Jinping, is about to plunge the country and himself into a risky experiment: an attempt to carry out market-driven economic overhauls while reinforcing the Communist Party’s pillars of political and ideological control. This mixed agenda has magnified doubts about whether he can deliver on his promises of transformation.
Reuters:
  • The uncomfortable truth in China's property market. In defying four years of official cooling efforts, China's soaring house prices reveal an uncomfortable truth: government is one of the biggest obstacles to the success of taming the market. State income is so entwined in the need for rising land prices that policy efforts to try to curb the house market create an inherent conflict of interest. 
Financial News:
  • China May Further Regulate Interbank Business. China is studying further regulating interbank business such as placing caps on bank proprietary "non-standard" debt purchases and wealth product investment in non-standard assets, citing a person familiar with the matter. So-called "quasi-loan" reverse repo agreement sales may also be halted, the report said. Banks may be required to set aside provisions for non-standard assets, according to the report.
Evening Recommendations
 RBC:
  • Rated (TWTR) Outperform, target $33.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 108.25 -1.0 basis point. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (WEN)/.06
  • (ATK)/2.39
  • (BZH)/.26
  • (MWW)/.08
  • (CVC)/.12
  • (RGLD)/.24
  • (IGT)/.34
  • (APA)/2.16
  • (DIS)/.76
  • (NVDA)/.25
  • (GRPN)/.01
  • (JOE)/-.01
  • (PCLN)/16.22
  • (MNST)/.57
  • (BNNY)/.29
  • (SSYS)/.42
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 335K versus 340K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2875K versus 2881K prior.
  • Advance 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.5% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.8% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +.6% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +.6% gain in 2Q.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for September is estimated to fall to $12.0B versus $13.625B in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Stein speaking, ECB rate decision, BoE rate decision, 3Q Mortgage Delinquencies, 3Q Mortgage Foreclosures, Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index, (OII) Analyst Day, (MJN) Investor Day, (SWI) Analyst Day and the (AA) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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