Friday, November 15, 2013

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Japan’s Biggest Banks See Profit Declining in Second Half. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316) and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411) increased their combined net income target by 23 percent to 2.26 trillion yen ($23 billion) for the year ending March, company statements showed. If they achieve the goal, second-half profit will fall 46 percent to 794.3 billion yen from the first six months’ 1.47 trillion yen and drop 43 percent from a year earlier. The forecast for lower second-half earnings reflects the banks’ uncertainty over whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe can sustain an economic recovery that’s been driven by government spending and a weaker yen.
  • Asian Stocks Advance as Yellen Supports U.S. Stimulus. Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average surging beyond 15,000 for the first time since May, after Federal Reserve chairman nominee Janet Yellen signaled she will continue U.S. stimulus efforts. Toyota Motor Co. (7201) climbed 1.3 percent, extending this week’s rally to 2.9 percent, as the yen declined to a two-month low against the dollar, boosting the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. surged 3.7 percent in Tokyo after the insurer raised its profit forecast. Luk Fook Holdings (International) Ltd. climbed 7.1 percent in Hong Kong as the jewelry retailer said it expects profit will rise. The MSCI AsiaPacific Index added 1.2 percent to 141.32 as of 10:51 a.m. in Hong Kong, extending this week’s advance to 1.7 percent.
  • Rebar Rises in Shanghai to Trim Weekly Loss as Iron Ore Rallies. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai advanced, narrowing a weekly loss, as higher iron ore prices helped offset a weaker demand outlook in winter. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gained as much as 0.4 percent to 3,636 yuan ($597) a metric ton, before trading at 3,632 yuan at 10:28 a.m. local time. The contract lost 0.8 percent this week
  • Copper Pares Weekly Drop as Yellen Signals Continued Stimulus. Copper rose for a second day, paring a weekly decline, after Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Janet Yellen backed U.S. stimulus measures until the economy improves. The contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much 0.6 percent to $7,035.25 a metric ton and traded at $7,029.25 at 10:17 a.m. in Beijing. The two-day rebound helped trim this week’s loss to 1.9 percent.
  • Germany Digs in Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Debate. Germany argued against a joint backstop for struggling euro-area banks as European finance ministers renewed their debate on how to handle the costs of managing failed lenders. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called on his colleagues to rein in their ambitions for the Single Resolution Mechanism proposed by the European Commission, which includes a common fund filled by levies on the financial industry. He said an agreement among European Union member states is possible by year-end as long as they don’t insist on a European fund now. 
  • Big Banks’ Use of Bailouts Show Need for New Rules, Senators Say. Big banks’ disproportionate reliance on U.S. aid after the credit crisis reinforces the need for additional steps to ensure the end of too big to fail, Senators Sherrod Brown and David Vitter said today. Brown and Vitter, co-sponsors of a bill that would impose a 15 percent capital requirement on the biggest U.S. lenders, commented after the release of a Government Accountability Office study that showed such firms made greater use of bailout programs introduced after markets collapsed in 2008.
  • Under Armour(UA) Buying MapMyFitness in $150 Million Deal. Under Armour Inc. (UA) agreed to buy MapMyFitness Inc. for $150 million as the maker of athletic apparel looks to compete with Nike Inc. (NKE) in offering fitness buffs a way to measure their training and performance online. MapMyFitness, founded in 2007, designs applications that allow athletes to record and share their workouts using global-positioning technology, according to a statement from Under Armour. Closely held MapMyFitness has about 20 million registered users worldwide, who can measure their training on more than 400 devices, sensors and wearables.
  • Yellen Says Review of Bank Commodity Activity Could Bring Limits. The Federal Reserve may consider limits on bank ownership and trading of physical commodities out of concern that an event such as an oil spill could undermine financial stability. “We are involved in a very comprehensive review” of banks’ commodities activity, Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said today at a Senate hearing on her nomination to become chairman of the central bank. “We want to make sure that these are conducted in a safe and sound manner, and we may be involved in additional rulemaking as we complete this review.”
  • Japan Sets Emissions Target in Setback to UN Treaty Talks. Japan set a new target for greenhouse gas emissions that critics say will set back United Nations talks for a treaty limiting fossil fuel emissions. The new target effectively reverses course from the goal set four years ago by allowing a 3.1 percent increase in emissions from 1990 levels rather than seeking a 25 percent cut.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans. Information on International Money Transfers Includes Financial and Personal Data of Americans. The Central Intelligence Agency is building a vast database of international money transfers that includes millions of Americans' financial and personal data, officials familiar with the program say. The program, which collects information from U.S. money-transfer companies including Western Union, WU -0.34% is carried out under the same provision of the Patriot Act that enables the National Security Agency to collect nearly all American phone records, the officials said. Like the NSA program, the mass collection of financial transactions is authorized by a secret national-security court, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.
  • NSA Fallout: Tech Firms Feel a Chill Inside China. Big U.S. computer and software companies are reporting a sudden chill in sales to China, and some blame increased government hostility toward the U.S. In the latest sign, computer-networking-gear maker Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO -10.96% said Wednesday that orders from China in the latest quarter fell 18% from the same period a year earlier. Cisco further projected revenue world-wide would decline 8% to 10% in the current quarter, in part because of continued weakness in China.
Barron's: 
Fox News:
CNBC:
  • Holiday outlook bleak for Wal-Mart(WMT), Kohl's(KSS). This holiday season may not be one of joy for some big retailers as the aftermath of the recession—low job growth and higher payroll taxes—has lower-income shoppers struggling to make ends meet and cautious about splashing out.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
NY Times:
  • U.S. Investigates Currency Trades by Major Banks. From their desks at some of the world’s biggest banks, traders exchanged a series of instant messages that earned them the nickname “the cartel.” Much like companies that rigged the price of vitamins and animal feed, the traders were competitors that hatched alliances for their own profits, federal investigators suspect. The group of traders, the investigators say, shared a mission to alter the price of foreign currencies, the largest and yet least regulated market in the financial world. And ultimately, they flooded the market with trades that potentially raised the cost of currency for clients but aided the banks’ own investments.
IFR:
  • Hunt for yield reaches fever pitch. Investors and bankers last week shrugged off concerns of a credit bubble forming and insisted that bumper supply volumes were unlikely to diminish before the end of the year, with issuers keen to pre-empt macroeconomic risks and make use of welcoming market conditions. Since the beginning of October, issuance in the euro and sterling markets by high-yield, corporate and financial institutions has reached US$115bn, according to Thomson Reuters data, just US$22bn short of the total issued in both October and November last year.
Real Clear Politics: 
Reuters: 
  • Nordstrom(JWN) tempers 2013 same-store sales view, stock down. Nordstrom Inc on Thursday reported a lower quarterly profit, due in part to the earlier timing of its Anniversary Sale, and took down the top end of its full-year forecast for sales at established stores. Nordstrom shares fell 1.7 percent to $62.36 in extended trading.
Financial Times:
  • Hopes for faster global growth dashed. Disappointing growth figures in the eurozone and Japan driven by weak export numbers have dashed hopes that a global economic recovery would gather pace in the second half of the year.
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
 Stifel:
  • Rated (LNKD) Buy, target $300.
  • Rated (YELP) Buy, target $85.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 107.50 -4.0 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures +.22%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MMS)/.50
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 1.52 in October.
  • The Import Price Index for October is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.2% gain in September.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in September.
  • Capacity Utilization for October is estimated at 798.3% versus 78.3% in September.
  • Manufacturing Production for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in September.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Inventories for September are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP/Germany IFO, Eurozone CPI and the (GE) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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