Friday, November 01, 2013

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • China Files Protest as Japanese Ships Disrupt Military Exercises. China lodged an official protest with Japan after its ships entered an area in the west Pacific Ocean and disrupted military exercises being conducted there, the Chinese Defense Ministry said. The Chinese navy announced its scheduled training there from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, while the Japanese entered the area on Oct. 25 and left three days later, the ministry said in a statement on its website yesterday. Japan’s actions also endangered the safe navigation of ships and planes, according to the statement. 
  • Sony(SNE) Slumps After Hirai Cuts Forecast as Tsuga Revamps Panasonic. Sony (6758) Corp. President Kazuo Hirai is paying the price for trying to revive ailing TV and smartphone sales, with more than $2 billion of market value lost today, as his counterpart at Panasonic (6752) Corp. benefits from paring those units as it struggles to compete.
  • Most Asia Stocks Drop on Tapering Concern; SoftBank Gains. Most Asian stocks declined, with the regional benchmark index paring its weekly advance, as speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus in coming months overshadowed improving China manufacturing data. Sony (6758) Corp. slumped 12 percent in Tokyo after the television and digital camera maker unexpectedly lowered its full-year profit forecast by 40 percent. Sydney Airport sank 3.1 percent after its largest shareholder Macquarie Group Ltd. announced plans to give some of its stake to its investors. Panasonic Corp. surged 5.6 percent, a fifth day of gains, after doubling its full-year profit forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.4 percent to 141.79 as of 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo, as two shares declined for each that rose.
  • Rubber in Tokyo Pares Weekly Gain as Higher Yen Cuts Appeal. Rubber declined for a second day, paring a weekly advance, as crude oil fell and a stronger Japanese currency cut the appeal of yen-denominated futures. The contract for delivery in April on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange lost as much as 1.3 percent to 258.1 yen a kilogram ($2,626 a metric ton) and traded at 259.5 yen at 10:44 a.m. The drop pared gains for the most-active contract to 1.1 percent this week. Futures fell 1.5 percent last month.
  • Rebar Climbs to Seven-Week High on China Manufacturing Growth. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai rose to the highest in seven weeks, after China’s manufacturing rose more than estimated in October, underpinning a recovery in the biggest steel user. Rebar for delivery in May, the most-active contract by volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose as much as 1.2 percent to 3,678 yuan ($604) a metric ton, the highest intra-day level since Sept. 13. Futures traded at 3,671 yuan at 10:54 a.m. local time, up 2.4 percent this week.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Wanted: Entry Level Hedgies; $353,000 Salary. Looking for a new start in finance? Hedge funds are hiring and even their beginners are making bank. The hedge-fund industry ramped up hiring for entry-level positions in 2013, according to a new report from Hedge Fund Research. The average compensation for a mid-performing fund for those entry-level hires was a total of $353,000, including bonuses, according to HFR and its study partner Glocap.
MarketWatch.com:
  • Container Store IPO prices at high end. The Container Store Inc., the retailer of storage and organizational products, saw its initial public offering price at the high end of recently raised expectations.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Washington Post:  
  • In first month, the vast majority of Obamacare sign-ups are in Medicaid. The first month of the new health law’s rollout reveals an unexpected pattern in several states: a crush of people applying for an expansion of Medicaid and a trickle of sign-ups for private insurance. This early imbalance — in some places nine out of 10 enrollees are in Medicaid — has taken some experts by surprise. The Affordable Care Act, which expanded Medicaid to cover millions of the poorest Americans who couldn’t otherwise afford coverage, envisions a more even split with an expanded, robust private market. “When we first saw the numbers, everyone’s eyes kind of bugged out,” said Matt Salo, who runs the National Association of Medicaid Directors. “Of the people walking through the door, 90 percent are on Medicaid. We’re thinking, what planet is this happening on?” The yawning gap between public and private enrollment is handing Republicans yet another line of criticism against President Obama’s health overhaul — that the law is primarily becoming an expansion of a costly entitlement program. If this trend continues, experts say it could prove costly for states that will have to help pay for some of these new Medicaid enrollees. It would further widen disparities between the states that opted to expand the entitlement program and those that have not. Low enrollment in private insurance, meanwhile, could increase premiums as it would likely indicate that only sick people, who really need coverage, were signing up.
Reuters:
  • Enrollment in Obamacare very small in first days: documents. Enrollment in health insurance plans on the troubled Obamacare website was very small in the first couple of days of operation, with just 248 Americans signing up, according to documents released on Thursday by a U.S. House of Representatives committee. The Obama administration has said it cannot provide enrollment figures from HealthCare.gov because it doesn't have the numbers
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 99.50 +.5 basis point. 
  • FTSE-100 futures +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AXL)/.56
  • (CBOE)/.45
  • (CVX)/2.71
  • (WCG)/1.51
  • (SUP)/.20
Economic Releases
8:58 am EST
  • Final Markit US PMI for October is estimated at 51.1 versus a prior estimate of 51.1.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for October is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.2 in September.
  • ISM Prices Paid for October is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.5 in September.
Afternoon
  • Total Vehicle Sales for October are estimated to rise to 15.45M versus 15.21M in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking and Japanese car sales could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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