Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: About Even
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.72 +3.75%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.13 unch.
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.59 unch.
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.76 +.57%
- ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 unch.
- Total Put/Call .77 -18.09%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.95 -.83%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.19 -2.34%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.0 -.80%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 291.28 +.90%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 17.50 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 245.0 -2 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.50/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.70 -2.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.20 -.9 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -104 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
1 comment:
Please consider the following concept as a foundation upon which future analysis can be built. Fiat money is defined as Credit, AGG, and Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW. If that is true then one can understand that concept, that the death of fiat money, which occurred on October 23, 2013, when the bond vigilantes called the Interest Rate on the Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher from 2.48%, was decisively transmitted to fiat wealth, which is defined as Stocks, VT, on November 25, 2013, which traded 0.1% lower.
Chinese Financials, CHIX, led China, YAO, lower, terminating the economic stimulus coming from PBoC Governor Zhou’s liberalization of domestic interest rates and reduction of intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Japan’s Bank, SMFG, led the Nikkei, NKY, lower on fears of the failure of Abenomics; the Yen, FXY, traded lower closing at 96.27.
Of great significant note, the EUR/JPY closed lower at 137.40, down from 137.43 on Friday November 22, 2013. The Eurozone, EZU, traded lower on fears of uncontrollable deflation; the Euro, FXE, traded lower closing at 133.70
Perhaps one might enjoy Shaun Richards who asks pessimistically in Mindful Money What Options Are Left For The European Central Bank? http://tinyurl.com/mhhdkyq
And perhaps one might enjoy John Mauldin communicates concepts of EU CPI deflation, monetary deflation, and economic recession in Thoughts From The Frontline PDF report Game of Thrones - European style http://d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net/uploads/pdf/131124_TFTF2.pdf
I leave you with the following thought.
On Monday, November 25, 2013, Japan’s Bank, Sumitomo, SMFG, Chinese Financials, CHIX, and Brazil Financials, BRAF, led World Stocks, VT, -0.4%, Nation Investment, EFA, -0.3%, and Global Financials, IXG, -0.2%, lower, while Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded higher, commencing the see-saw destruction of fiat wealth and fiat money, and pivoting the stock markets from bull to bear, and pivoting the world from the age of liberalism fully into the age of authoritarianism, on fears that the world central bank’s monetary authority have crossed the rubicon of sound monetary policy, and have made money good investments bad. Yes, as fiat wealth, Stocks, VT, traded 0.4% lower on Monday, November 25, 2013, the world pivoted from the economic paradigm of liberalism into the paradigm of authoritarianism.
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