S&P 500 1,790.29 -3.01%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 1,144.13 -2.47%
- S&P 500 High Beta 29.25 -4.32%
- Wilshire 5000 18,863.93 -2.94%
- Russell 1000 Growth 841.31 -2.67%
- Russell 1000 Value 896.93 -3.30%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 426.24 -2.40%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,411.60 -4.54%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 899.39 -2.20%
- Transports 7,258.72 -2.65%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.87 -4.51%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 39.14 -2.64%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,171.40 -.22%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 954.91 -.08%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 199,214 -.72%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 151 -403
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 46.81 +22.41%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 340,049 +3.88%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,613,293 -.60%
- Total Put/Call .90 +28.57%
- ISE Sentiment 79.0 -40.15%
- Volatility(VIX) 18.14 +44.77%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.37 +10.14%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.34 +7.34%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.78 +13.99%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,872.55 -.45%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.707 Trillion +.24%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $4.237 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 266.32 +2.67%
- Heating Oil 313.74 +4.84%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.79 -1.80%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 383.0 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 124.30 USD/Ton -2.36%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,323.65 -.46%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% +50 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1295 -4.63%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.41 +.07%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.60 -4.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.70 +1.9 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 32.0% chance of no change, 68.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/29
- US Dollar Index 80.46 -.89%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.96 -.94%
- Yield Curve 238.0 -7 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.72% -10 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.055 Trillion +.64%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.85 +1.25%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 154.0 +2.42%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.33 +7.34%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 118.97 +11.1%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 247.50 +13.01%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 92.0 -1.08%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.50 +7.30%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 352.75 +19.25 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% -12.0 basis points
- TED Spread 19.0 -1.5 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.75 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -2.75 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.98 +11.31%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 104.02 +21.66%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 337.41 +15.55%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 110.0 +2.0 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.660 Trillion +.87%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,018.50 -1.70%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 331,500 -3,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3%unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.39% -2 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 404.10 +4.7%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.0 unch.
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% +10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.29/gallon -.01/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,271 -9.08%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,128.73 +1.18%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +2.5%
- Rail Freight Carloads 267,428 +13.32%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)
- STML, SMCI, FIO, RENT, NTCT, SBNY, ILMN, RCAP, GMT, NLNK, TTWO, VGR, HURN, SWKS, AA, KERX, GPRE, TSRA, XLRN, STWD, NSC, EWBC, PODD, GD and NKTR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
- OCN, COH, IPHI, FUEL, SKX, AOL, PH, AEO, ATI, LKQ, SGNT, EBS, AAWW, ACAT, SLM, PETS, BBSI, HRC, RDEN, SSNI and CANN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 17.06 +23.89%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.93 -1.13%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.77 +6.78%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.95 +7.19%
- ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -14.29%
- Total Put/Call .92 +5.75%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.58 +7.06%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.55 +10.48%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.33 +6.66%
- Asia-Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 119.0 +5.01%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 337.90 +5.54%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 20.0 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
- Yield Curve 239.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $124.30/Metric Tonne +.32%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.60 +.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.7 +1.5 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -9.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -391 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow.
The worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years is
beginning to reveal the extent of the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s
tapering of monetary stimulus, compounded by political and financial
instability. The Turkish lira plunged to a record and South Africa’s
rand fell yesterday to a level weaker than 11 per dollar for the first
time since 2008. Argentine policy makers devalued the peso by reducing
support in the foreign-exchange market, allowing the currency to drop
the most in 12 years to an unprecedented low. Investors are losing
confidence in some of the biggest developing nations, extending the
currency-market rout triggered last year when the Fed first signaled it
would scale back stimulus. While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa were the engines of global growth following the financial crisis
in 2008, emerging markets now pose a threat to world financial stability.
“The current environment is potentially very toxic for emerging
markets,” Eamon Aghdasi, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in New
York, said in a phone interview yesterday. “You have two very troubling
things: uncertainty about the Fed policy, combined with concerns about
growth, particularly in China. It’s difficult to justify that it’s time
to go out and buy emerging markets at the moment.”
- UBS Says Market Wants Default as Risks to Pile Up: China Credit.
UBS AG’s China securities unit, the leading foreign underwriter of debt
sales in the country, says the market wants policy makers to allow the
first onshore bond default to reduce long-term hazards to the financial
system. “Systematic risk will pile up without any default happening,”
Bi Xuewen, head of China debt capital markets at UBS Securities Co.,
said in an interview in Shanghai. “Market participants would like to see
a default in China’s bonds. Only
after defaults can the overall risk pricing system be
normalized.”
- Jiang Tells CNBC That ICBC Won’t Compensate Trust Investors. Industrial & Commercial Bank of
China Ltd. Chairman Jiang Jianqing said the lender won’t
compensate investors for losses tied to a troubled trust product
distributed by the bank, CNBC reported on its website. The incident will be a lesson for investors on moral hazard
and risks associated with such investments, Jiang told CNBC from
the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Beijing-based lender won’t take “rigid responsibility” for the losses
and will review all its partnerships in entities with which it
does business, Jiang said, according to CNBC.
- China Trust Products Gone Awry Evoke Soros ’08 Crisis Echoes. The story of how a 3 billion-yuan
($496 million) Chinese trust investment wound up on the brink of
default shows what billionaire investor George Soros has called
the “eerie resemblances” between the 2008 global financial
crisis and the nation’s debt market. China’s $4.8 trillion in shadow-banking debt, arranged by
trusts and fund managers with less transparency than commercial-bank loans, was equivalent to as much as 55 percent of the
nation’s 2012 economic output at the end of that year, according
to Moody’s latest estimate. Investors argued their case in a
meeting at an ICBC Shanghai branch yesterday, an echo of savers’
appeals to Hong Kong lenders after Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc.’s failure undermined securities called minibonds. “This case reminds people of Lehman minibonds because
complicated credit-linked products were sold to individual
investors via bank channels,” said Christine Kuo, senior credit
officer at Moody’s in Hong Kong. “It’s not clear whether
misselling was involved due to lack of transparency. It’s also
not clear who will share the loss. Regardless, both the product
packager and distributor have seen their reputation suffer.”
- China Warns U.S. of Consequences After SEC Bans Accounting Firms. China warned the U.S. of
“consequences” after the Securities & Exchange Commission
barred the four largest accounting firms from conducting audits
of U.S.-listed Chinese companies. The decision to ban the Chinese affiliates of the
accounting firms for six months “ignored” China’s efforts and
progress made on cross-border regulatory cooperation, the China
Securities Regulatory Commission said. “We hope the SEC will take into consideration the big
picture of China-U.S. regulatory cooperation, make the right
judgement to resolve the situation properly,” the CSRC, the
nation’s securities body, said on its microblog. “The SEC
should bear all responsibility to possible consequences arising
from the decision.”
- China Bank Regulator Said to Issue Alert on Coal Loans.
China’s banking regulator ordered its regional offices to increase
scrutiny of credit risks in the coal-mining industry, said two people
with knowledge of the matter, signaling government concern about
possible defaults. The
China Banking Regulatory Commission also told its local branches to
closely monitor risks from trust and wealth-management products, said
the people, who asked not to be identified as the matter isn’t public.
The commission issues such alerts for matters that it judges may pose
significant risks to banks, the people said.
- Aussie Drops Below 87 U.S. Cents on China Concerns, RBA Comments. The
Australian dollar dropped below
87 U.S. cents for the first time since July 2010 after China’s bank
regulator ordered regional offices to increase scrutiny of credit risks
in the coal-mining industry, according to people
with knowledge of the matter.
The Aussie slid versus all 16 major peers after the Wall
Street Journal cited central bank board member Heather Ridout as
saying around 80 cents would be a fair deal for everybody.
- Ukraine Unrest Spreads From Kiev as EU Warns of Civil War. Anti-government unrest spread from Ukraine’s capital as the
European Union warned the protests, which turned deadly this week, could
spiral into a civil war. Activists have taken over the
headquarters of governors picked by President Viktor Yanukovych in five
cities, marking a widening of the two-month protest movement. EU justice
chief Viviane Reding told CNBC today that Ukraine must get its “house
in order” as it heads in the “direction of a civil war.”
- Cross-Currency Swap Premium Rises Seventh Day as Banks Pull Back. The
premium that European lenders pay to obtain dollar-denominated cash
flows increased for a seventh day as global central banks said they’ll
wind down emergency funding programs. The rate on a three-month
cross-currency basis swap between euros and dollars was negative four
basis points, after reaching positive 4.8 basis points Jan. 16. A
negative swap rate signals traders are paying a premium to trade
euro-based cash flows for comparable flows denominated in U.S. dollars.
Investor demand
for safety increased amid a deepening selloff in emerging-market
currencies.
“The realization is settling in that there are still a lot
of potential surprises out there, including those in the
liquidity mechanisms and with respect to spillover effects from
market to market,” Jeffrey Caughron, who advises community
banks on investments exceeding $40 billion as an associate partner at Baker Group LP in Oklahoma City, said in a telephone
interview.
- Bond Risk Heads for Biggest Weekly Jump Since June in Europe. The cost of insuring corporate
bonds against losses in Europe is heading for the biggest weekly rise in
seven months on concern a slowdown in emerging-market economies will
curb global growth. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit-default swaps on 125
companies with investment-grade ratings rose 9 basis points this week to
80 basis points at 10:25 a.m. in London, the biggest jump since the
week ending June 21. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies
with mostly speculative-grade ratings climbed 23 basis points to 302
basis points, also the biggest increase since June. Borrowing costs for investment-grade companies in the region fell two
basis points this week to 1.97 percent, the lowest since June. 5, while
the average yield on speculative- grade notes fell three basis points to
a record 4.73 percent on Jan. 21, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index
data show.
- European Stocks Drop as Emerging-Market Currencies Fall.
European stocks fell the most since June, extending the Stoxx Europe
600 Index’s weekly drop, as investors assessed a tumble in
emerging-market currencies amid concern Federal Reserve tapering is
hurting growth. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA dropped 5.1 percent
on investor concern that its exposure to Turkey and Argentina will hurt
earnings. Novartis (NOVN) AG lost 3 percent after failing to win backing
from a European advisory panel for its Serelaxin treatment for acute
heart failure. Aberdeen Asset Management Plc slumped 5.7 percent as
Morgan Stanley recommended selling the
stock. Celesio AG gained 3.7 percent as McKesson Corp. agreed to
buy majority-owner Franz Haniel & Cie.’s holding in the company.
The Stoxx 600 slid 2.4 percent to 324.75 at the close of
trading, for a weekly loss of 3.3 percent.
- Colder Weather Forecast for U.S. as Freeze Brings Texas Ice. Parts of southern Texas may get a
rare coating of ice as temperatures plunging across the U.S.
portend an even sharper cold snap to come. Temperatures across the eastern U.S. and parts of Ontario
and Quebec will be at least 8 degrees below normal through Jan.
27, said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group
LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Next week will be colder, he said.
- Starbucks(SBUX) Profit Tops Estimates as U.S. Sales Improve.
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, advanced
the most in almost six months after posting earnings that topped
analysts’ projections as pumpkin-spice lattes and other seasonal drinks
helped boost U.S. sales. The shares rose as much as 3.8 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
- Dow Transports Get Shellacked. Transportation stocks–one pocket of the market that avoided much of this week’s malaise–are now feeling the pain. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a 20-member index of airlines,
railroads and trucking companies, slumped more than 3% at session lows
Friday. The decline comes after the index set a record high on Thursday,
bucking the broader trend of declining stocks, currencies and emerging
markets. The divergence raised some eyebrows.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Why Puerto Rico needs to borrow money—and soon. (video) The
island, a territory of the United States, is in the midst of a debt
crisis. With only 3.7 million people, it owes an eye-watering $70
billion in public debt, behind only New York and California. And much of
that debt is widely held by American investors in municipal bond funds.
- Emerging-market currency 'contagion' spreads.
Emerging-market currencies continued to take a beating on Friday
amid growing worries about political upheaval, slowing growth and U.S.
monetary policy, prompting central bankers and policymakers to scramble
for a response. Turkey's lira hit a new record low against the
dollar, and Argentina's peso was down almost 20 percent on the week
against the dollar.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
- Every American With A Bank Account Should Understand What Jamie Dimon's Pay Raise Says About Wall Street. To review: Let
a trader blow a $6.2 billion hole in the bank's balance sheet with the
bank's money — pay cut. Pay out $20 billion in lawsuits for various
transgressions that took
place at the bank under your watch — pay raise. You're just $3 million
shy of what you got when JP Morgan was America's golden bank, and you
were America's golden boy. Mess with the bank's money, you're toast. Mess with the bank's customers — handle it well, and everything will be fine.
Trucking News:
- Trucking Conditions Soften: FTR. The
November reading of 7.01 was 20% lower than the month before, but still
reflects a positive environment for truckers. The regulatory drag from
hours-of-service changes is reducing capacity, FTR noted, adding the
upside economics have yet to translate into real market tightness,
mitigating a rise in the index.
Reuters:
- Exclusive:Japan government forecasts show Abe missing budget-balance promise. Japanese
government calculations indicate that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cannot
meet his budget-balancing promise in coming years on the current course,
suggesting he may come under greater pressure from fiscal hawks for
future tax increases.
Forecasts by the
Finance Ministry, reviewed by Reuters on Friday, show that even in the
rosiest of four scenarios, the government will run a primary budget
deficit - which excludes debt service and income from debt sales - for
the fiscal year to March 2021. Private economists have long
considered the government's fiscal-reform goals to be ambitious, but the
new forecasts represent the first time that official figures have
essentially confirmed that view. "Abe
will either have to get serious about spending cuts or raise taxes more
than originally planned," Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho
Securities Research & Consulting Co, said of the new ministry
forecasts.
- METALS-Copper hits month low on signs of slowing China growth. Copper fell to its lowest in a
month on Friday and struck its biggest weekly fall since
mid-November as slowing growth in China's factories fueled
worries about demand in the world's top metals consumer. The metal is down 2 percent
for the week.
- Yen and franc soar on emerging market rout.
The yen surged and the Swiss
franc hit its highest in a month against the euro on Friday as investors
sought safe places to stash the stacks of money being pulled out of
stocks and several big emerging markets. Both the dollar and euro fell as much as 1 percent against the yen
in a move centred on more worrying signs of a slowdown in China and
broad expectations of a tightening of monetary conditions this year by
some of the world's biggest central banks.
Telegraph:
Deutschlandradio Kultur:
- Greece Needs Generous Debt Cut, Droutsas. Former Greek Foreign
Minister Dimitris Droutsas says only generous debt forgiveness will
allow Greece to implement the "radical structural reforms" the country
needs for a fresh start.
The Economic Times:
- Gloomy Outlook: India's GDP May Sink Below 5% to an 11-Year Low.
India's statistics office is likely to say in two weeks that growth
this year will slump further to an 11-year low, undermining the
government's optimism that it would at least be flat at 5% on the back
of a recovery in the second half. The advanced estimate for FY14 is set
to come in below that level, said an official who didn't want to be
named.
India's
statistics office is likely to say in two weeks that growth this year
will slump further to an 11-year low, undermining the government's
optimism that it would at least be flat at 5% on the back of a recovery
in the second half.
The advanced estimate for FY14 is set to come in below that level, said an official who didn't want to be named.
The economy expanded 4.6% in the first half and would need to rise
5.4% in the second for growth to come in at 5%, which doesn't lo ..
Gloomy outlook: India's GDP may sink below 5% to an 11-year low
China.org.cn:
- Dagong lowers Philippines rating outlook. China's domestic rating agency
Dagong on Friday downgraded the rating outlook of the Republic of
the Philippines from stable to negative. Ratings for the country's domestic
currency and foreign currency sovereign credit were both maintained
at BB-, the agency said in a statement on its website. "Under the background of the
forthcoming tightening of global monetary policy, the Philippines'
economic growth mode characterized by substantial capital inflows
and fast credit expansion is facing severe challenges," the
statement said. The economy of the Philippines will
face more downward pressure as interest rates rise in both domestic
and overseas markets, Dagong said, forecasting its growth rate at
4.5 percent in 2014 and 3 percent in 2015.
CRIEnglish:
- China Reports 10 New H7N9 Human Cases. Ten human H7N9 bird flu cases were newly reported in China on Friday,
including one in Beijing, one in Guangdong Province, one in Fujian
Province and seven in Zhejiang Province, forcing cities in Zhejiang to
close their live poultry markets.
In the first case reported in the city this year, a man in Beijing
was confirmed to have contracted H7N9 on Thursday night, according to
the Chinese capital's disease control and prevention center.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gaming -5.24% 2) Alt Energy -3.66% 3) Education -3.50%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- KSU, NSTG, EOPN, EBS, BDE, PTCT, ABCB, DL, MTCN, BBVA, DGII, CLV, COVS, GNRC, TUP, IGT, BIB, TCBI, GWW, ACAT, SMCI, VNQI, HXL, CE, MATW, FEYE, DDD, QSII, ALGN, CW, HXL, WETF, BYI, GNRC, RMD, SWC, ECYT, BABY, ISRG, ACET, CST, CYN, PNK, AVP, AGCO, RS, CY, LOCK, QLTY, FAST, PNR, JAZZ, OZM, AA, MDC, SMCI, BCC, STT, FLS, CAMP, GWW, MCRS, WYNN, BMY, TRW, CMI, MS, MGM, C, GE and LRCX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) EXC 2) XLV 3) HYG 4) XLF 5) OIH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) IGT 2) DDD 3) KSU 4) CMG 5) CAT
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Restaurants +.19% 2) Networking -.71% 3) Food -1.03%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- OTEX, LIVE, JNPR, SYNA, DFS and JNPR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MET 2) HUN 3) KMB 4) BMY 5) LYB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) RL 2) JPM 3) CAT 4) ISRG 5) C
Charts: