Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.11%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -1.28% 2) Hospitals -1.14% 3) Alt Energy -.75%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• STON, OMER, RPTP, HIBB, RM, PUK, FSYS, GSVC, CELG, SHOS, EPAM, OCRX, EGL, MEI, HMIN, RIG, HTHT, ITMN, WGO, EDU, HOLI, XIV, GIS, ADUS, GSLV and PGEM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BX 2) EFA 3) NOV 4) EWA 5) UPS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AET 2) DGX 3) CELG 4) DDD 5) X
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.22%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.26% 2) Tobacco +.98% 3) Utilities +.50%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HART, ULTA, LMCA, NUAN, CTB, JASO and NSM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) MEET 3) OIS 4) NUAN 5) NEE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GNRC 2) PSX 3) GLD 4) GMCR 5) CCK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.50 +5.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 102.25 +2.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANN)/.07

• (BWS)/.10

• (BKE)/1.21

• (CCL)/-.08

• (EBIX)/.32

• (HIBB)/.70

• (KWK)/-.03

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.

• PPI Ex Food & Energy for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in January.

9:55 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 82.0 versus 81.6 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (ADES) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fischer speaking, German CPI and the (H) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.19 +11.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.92 -1.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.52 +4.96%

• ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -23.16%

• Total Put/Call .95 -1.04%

• NYSE Arms 2.13 +94.0% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.45 +3.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.84 +5.91%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 49.01 unch.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.02 +.81%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 327.78 +1.49%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 372.16 +1.76%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.13 +.89%

• TED Spread 19.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 231.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.50/Metric Tonne +3.82%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.10 +4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.20 -5.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Thursday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.50 +1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 100.25 +2.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GCO)/2.18

• (DG)/1.01

• (ULTA)/1.07

• (ARO)/-.31

• (ZUMZ)/.61

• (PLUG)/-.07

• (CWTR)/-.82

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in January.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto for February are estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in January.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in January.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 330K versus 323K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2903K versus 2907K prior.

• The Import Price Index for February is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in January.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for January are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in December.

2:00 pm EST

• The monthly budget deficit for February is estimated at -$195.0B versus -$203.5B in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Stanley Fischer nomination hearing, China retail sales/industrial production, BoJ Minutes, 30Y $13B auction, Bloomberg March US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (UTX) investor meeting, (DYN) investor day, (OMG) investor day, (TXN) capital mgmt strategy update and the (PPG) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, More Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Homebuilding/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.67 -.88%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.98 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.30 -.47%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +3.49%

• Total Put/Call .90 +9.76%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 -.64% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.89 +1.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.34 +2.78%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 49.01 +2.64%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 100.41 +2.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.98 +2.16%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 365.73 +.58%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.

• TED Spread 19.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 236.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $107.40/Metric Tonne +2.38%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.10 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.60 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -50 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long