Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.51%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.84% 2) Gold & Silver +1.69% 3) Internet +1.67%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALKS, TCK, KT, WUBA, YY, P, FEYE, KCG, YELP and BTU

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VIAB 2) MTG 3) ACT 4) SPLK 5) HUM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AAPL 2) FEYE 3) BAC 4) YELP 5) GOOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Chinese Developers Seen Facing More Challenges on Oversupply. Chinese developers will probably face more challenges this year because of an oversupply of housing in smaller cities, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Sourcing of financing, including from non-banks, will narrow, according to 26 economists and analysts surveyed from March 24 to 31. Developers in regions where the housing market slowed and access to financing shrunk face rising default risks, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said in a Jan. 17 report. “Oversupply remains the top concern of the real estate sector,” Qinwei Wang, London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in the survey. “Inventories have continued to rise, with the situation vulnerable in some third cities. Looking ahead, the increase of demand for new properties will probably be far weaker than over the last decade.”

• Sina Tumbles on Concern Weibo’s IPO to Shrink Valuations. Sina Corp. (SINA) sank to the lowest level since June on concern the initial public offering of its Twitter-like unit will shrink its valuation. Shares of Shanghai-based Sina fell 4.9 percent to $53.59 today in New York, extending its three-day decline to 13 percent.

• Asia Stocks Fall Second Day, Tracking U.S. Shares Lower. Asian stocks fell for a second day, following the biggest three-day rout in U.S. shares in more than two months, as investors await the conclusion of a Bank of Japan policy meeting. SoftBank Corp. declined 2.6 percent in Tokyo and Yahoo Japan Corp. fell 4.3 percent as telecommunications and technology shares extended yesterday’s losses. Samsung Electronics Co. slid 1.1 percent in Seoul after the world’s biggest maker of smartphones posted its second straight decline in quarterly profit. Australian Agricultural Co., a cattle producer, climbed 5.3 percent after Japan and Australia agreed on trade deal that will lower tariffs on beef. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.6 percent to 137.69 as of 9:41 a.m. in Tokyo as all 10 industry groups on the gauge retreated, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Ukrainian Leaders Slam Russia for Attempt to 'Tear Country Apart'. U.S. White House Backs Charge of Outside Meddling as East Ukraine Rocked by Protests, Spurring New Kerry Mission. 

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Few Rush To Hedge Against JGB Decline. For the first time in more than a decade, Japan’s bond investors have a way to hedge some risk associated with holding some of the nation’s longest government debt. The only problem? Few people are buying.

• Citi(C) Is Bracing to Miss a Profit Target. Citigroup Says Its Return-on-Tangible-Common-Equity Goal May Be Out of Reach.

• How Climate Change Conquered the American Campus. The top-paying job for grads last year: petroleum engineer, at $97,000. Yet most colleges seem oddly uninterested.

Zero Hedge:

• Hot Air Hisses Out Of Housing Bubble 2.0: Even Two Middle-Class Incomes Aren’t Enough Anymore To Buy A Median Home.

• The Father Of High Speed Trading Speaks: "The Market We Created Is A Casino; A Complete Mess; A Rigged Game".

• This Is What Employment In America Really Looks Like... (graph)

• SPX Index EBITDA . (graph)

• This Time Better Be Different.

• Stocks Turn Red For The Year While Nasdaq Smashed Most Since October 2011. (graph)

• Asian Stocks Tumble After China, Japan Disappoint On Additional Stimulus. (graph)

• The Global Origins of China's Domestic Conflicts.

Business Insider: 

• This Jim Chanos Chart Will Convince You We're At The Peak Of A Spectacular, Fed-Fueled Bubble.

• Brokerages Make Millions Selling Orders To High Frequency Trading Firms.

• Venezuela's Street Protests Are More Terrifying Than Ever [PHOTOS].

NY Times:

• Tech Firms May Find No-Poaching Pacts Costly. It is the talk of the Valley. A high-stakes negotiation is taking place in Silicon Valley among some of the biggest names in the industry — Apple and Google among them — over accusations that they were involved in a decade-long collusion to prevent their employees from being hired at rival companies. The employees filed a class-action suit, contending that the illegal hiring practices cost employees $9 billion in lost wages. Now the companies are locked in mediation sessions, hoping to settle the case in the next several weeks.

Reuters:

• U.S. warns China over currency depreciation. The United States warned Beijing on Monday that the recent depreciation of the Chinese currency could raise "serious concerns" if it signaled a policy shift away from allowing market-determined exchange rates.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

AP: 

• Fed Gives Banks 2 More Years on Risky Securities. The Federal Reserve is giving U.S. banks that have certain complex securities two more years to ensure their holdings don't put them afoul of the new Volcker Rule.

Financial Times: 

• Alternative lenders ramp up risky home loans. Hedge funds, private equity houses and other alternative lenders are making big bets on the UK housing market by backing home purchasers and developers with relatively risky short-term finance.

• Weaker renminbi could be China’s subprime. Further fall would hit strategies based on view of ever-rising currency It is the talk of the Valley. A high-stakes negotiation is taking place in Silicon Valley among some of the biggest names in the industry — Apple and Google among them — over accusations that they were involved in a decade-long collusion to prevent their employees from being hired at rival companies. The employees filed a class-action suit, contending that the illegal hiring practices cost employees $9 billion in lost wages. Now the companies are locked in mediation sessions, hoping to settle the case in the next several weeks. 

Telegraph:

• Central banks are incubating a crisis the IMF is disinclined to see.

Xinhua:

• China Won't Rely on Stimulus to Boost Economy. China won't rely on a large stimulus like the one following the 2008 global financial crisis to boost its economy after a "string of lukewarm economic indicators," according to a commentary from Xinhua News written by Zhang Zhengfu. Talk about an incoming stimulus is "misleading" and those anticipating a package will likely be "disappointed," the commentary says.

Evening Recommendations
Janney:

• Rated (TWTR) Buy, target $55.

Bernstein:

• Raised (EL) to Outperform, target $79.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 +2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 89.0 -.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (WDFC)/.68

• (AA)/.05

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March is estimated to rise to 92.5 versus 91.4 in February.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTs Job Openings for February are estimated to rise to 4020 versus 3974 in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, UK Industrial Production, UK GDP, $30B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, Needham Healthcare Conference and the (IHS) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Margin Selling, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.38 +10.17%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.89 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.21 -.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.63 +3.95%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -11.25%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.26% 

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -5.60% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.97 +1.20%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.96 +.89%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 42.25 -2.56%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.70 +2.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 279.41 +.48%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.14 +.83%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 21.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 230.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.20/Metric Tonne +1.30%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.90 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.90 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -2.o basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• U.S., Ukraine Accuse Russia as Protesters Seize Offices. The U.S. joined Ukraine in accusing Russia of instigating the storming of government offices in eastern Ukraine and warned that any move by Russian forces into the area would be a “serious escalation” of the crisis. White House press secretary Jay Carney said there is evidence that some of the pro-Russian separatists who seized administration buildings in the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk aren’t locals and that some of the protesters were paid. Ukrainian officials say Russia has sent agents to foment unrest and justify carving off more of the nation. “If Russia moves into eastern Ukraine, either overtly or covertly, this would be a very serious escalation,” Carney said today in Washington. He added that there “will be costs for further transgressions” against Ukraine’s sovereignty.

• Goldman(GS) Sees Chance to Cut Its China Junk Debt Holdings. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) says now may be a good time to cut holdings of Chinese high-yield bonds after the longest winning streak in six weeks. “Investors should use the recent rally to reduce overweight positions,” analysts led by Hong Kong-based Kenneth Ho wrote in a note dated April 4. “We believe that there will be more headlines noises to come out of China and expect to see further credit differentiation.” 

• European Stocks Drop as Technology Shares Fall. European stocks fell from a six-year high, posting their biggest decline in a month, as shares of technology companies tumbled. Technology shares lost 2 percent, the most among 19 industry groups in the benchmark gauge, with United Internet AG falling 4.3 percent and ARM Holdings Plc dropping 2.4 percent. Osram Licht AG slid the most since it started trading after its spinoff from Siemens AG as Berenberg Bank lowered its rating. Altice SA jumped 11 percent, while Bouygues SA slumped the most since August 2012, after Vivendi SA (VIV) agreed to sell its phone unit SFR to Altice in a deal valued at more than 17 billion euros ($23.3 billion). The Stoxx 600 fell 1.2 percent to 334.96 at the close of trading.

• Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Bets by Most in Nine Months. Fewer than three weeks into spring, oil speculators are already thinking about the summer. Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bullish wagers the most since February, betting that refineries will need to buy more crude to accelerate gasoline output before the peak U.S summer driving season. Fuel supply is already tight, with consumers paying the most at the pump in seven months. 

• Treasuries Advance to 1-Week High as Jobs Pace Tempers Fed Views. Treasuries rose to the highest level in more than a week as investors bet jobs growth is slow enough to deter the Federal Reserve from accelerating cuts in its bond-purchase program. 

• Euro Gains as ECB Signals Deflation Risk Is Contained. The euro gained against most of its major counterparts as European Central Bank policy makers signaled deflation risks are contained, subduing speculation of a round of bond-buying to boost prices and economic growth.

• High-Frequency Din Evokes Scandals Past as Gabelli Sees Ripoff. Scrutiny of high-frequency trading is stirring memories among investment veterans of earlier scandals when the government targeted price-fixing and fraud in U.S. equity markets. 

• Oil Imports Seen Falling to Zero as Soon as 2037 by U.S. Net oil imports to the U.S. could fall to zero by 2037 because of robust production in areas including North Dakota’s Bakken field and Texas’s Eagle Ford formation, according to a government projection released today.

Barron's:

• Private Equity, Hedge Funds Wary Of Marketing Via JOBS Act. Only 4% of hedge fund managers and 5% of private equity managers who responded to the survey said they have registered to market under the JOBS Act. Cost is a major factor, according to 42% of hedge fund managers and 24% of private equity firms. Other barriers named include potential conflict with the AIFMD (cited by 22% of private equity firms surveyed), increased scrutiny from the SEC (cited by 20%), and the negative perception of marketing (cited by 20%).

Wall Street Journal: 

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Stocks Retreating; High-Growth Tech Shares Extend Slide. Traders Said to be Positioning Ahead of First-Quarter Earnings Season.

• U.S. IPO Market Expects Busiest Week Since 2007. A Total of 14 U.S.-Listed IPOs Are Scheduled to Price Through Thursday.

MarketWatch: 

• TD Ameritrade’s(AMTD) Investor Movement Index: IMX Breaks Highest Level in its Four-Year History Fourth Month in a Row.

• Housing pain could halt stocks’ gain. Opinion: Weaker demand for real estate could spread to other asset classes.

CNBC:

• Housing recovery is all for the 'haves'. Demand is high, prices are higher, but the housing numbers this spring are just not adding up. Mortgage origination volumes hit their lowest recorded level since at least 2000, according to areport released Monday from Black Knight Financial Services. 

• US SEC forms squad to examine private funds: Sources. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has put together a dedicated group to examine private equity and hedge funds, after the 2010 Dodd-Frank law required the funds to be regulated, according to people familiar with the matter. The examiners will look at areas including how private equity and hedge funds value their assets, disclose their fees, and communicate with investors.

ZeroHedge:  

• Russia Tells Ukrainians: 'Referendum' Or We Can't Protect You As Ukraine Proposes State Of Emegency.

• And Another Region Seeks To Join Russia.

• 1215095 - The Flash Boys Mystery Solved.

• The Pretense Of Forward Guidance.

• Why Surging Profits Aren't Leading To CapEx And Jobs. (graph)

• Euronext Breaks, Again.

ValueWalk:

• Goldman(GS) Hedge Fund VIP List Sags Amidst Stock Picking Difficulty. 

• Retail Investors Mobile Trading – A Sign Of A Stock Bubble?

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Fluff or Fundamentals?

Business Insider: 

• Wall Street's Brightest Minds Reveal THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE WORLD.

• I Looked Up The Fastest-Growing Jobs In America, And Boy Was It Depressing.

• Obama Is Blind To Putin’s True Ideology.

• Google(GOOG) Has A New Plan To Assault The TV Industry With Something Called 'Android TV'.

• China Warns US To Stay Out Of Hong Kong Over Democratic Reform.

• Ukraine Prime Minister: Russia Is Trying To Take Eastern Ukraine.

• The Momentum Stock Collapse Has Spread Beyond The US.

Reuters: 

• Russia says Ukraine needs "international assistance" on constitution.

• Euro zone debt yields edge up as Nowotny tempers ECB QE hopes.

Financial Times:

• Armed pro-Russia separatists storm buildings in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s leaders warned that their country was at risk of being torn apart as armed pro-Russian separatists occupied government buildings in three eastern Ukrainian cities, displaying a new level of force and ambition.

South China Morning Post:

• Agricultural Bank of China warns branches of loan risks. Caution comes after price cuts at housing projects in smaller mainland cities cause panic. Agricultural Bank of China, the mainland's third-largest lender by market value, has warned its branches about credit risks from property lending, two sources said.
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.77%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.56% 2) Gaming -3.55% 3) Hospitals -3.11%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MNK, OPWR, WWE, EMES, HMC, PNQI, XON, DRII, AMTD, DNKN, DWRE, YRCW, SPLK, LG, CIEN, KMT, UA, RNG, CRTO, TQQQ, NSR, FLTX, SKM, QQQ, WDAY, LVS, FNGN, NSR, CTCT, XOOM, JAH, AJG, BX, MU, KMT, GWRE, LNG, BOBE, DXCM, CNVR, URI, BOFI, AEO and FLDM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MGM 2) APC 3) CME 4) M 5) XLE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRX 2) VLO 3) PFE 4) GS 5) LVS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.78%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +.78% 2) REITs +.65% 3) Steel +.62%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VOCS, QCOR, AGIO, PBR, ARWR and Z

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QCOR 2) MDY 3) GNK 4) ASH 5) WWE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QCOR 2) QCOM 3) EXC 4) T 5) NFLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume