Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.37 -7.94%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.47 +.38%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 -.70%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.54 -1.14%
- ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -10.87%
- Total Put/Call .90 -4.26%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.21 -1.07%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.11 -5.07%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.10 -2.77%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.57 +.11%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 281.15 -1.90%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.31 -.06%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 20.25 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- Yield Curve 227.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.20/Metric Tonne -.77%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.40 +2.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.90 -.8 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Says Russia Fuels Terror as NATO Boosts Defense. Ukraine
accused Russia of fueling “terrorism” in its eastern regions as NATO
bolstered the defense of nearby European nations. Government
troops pressed on with an anti-separatist offensive that freed an
airfield near Kramatorsk yesterday, sending armored vehicles into the
Donetsk region town where pro-Russian forces have clashed with police.
NATO pledged to hold more military drills in eastern Europe and step up
air and naval policing on its flanks. “Russia has a new commodity
for export in addition to oil and gas -- terrorism,” Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a government meeting today in Kiev. “It’s become
clear our Russian neighbors have decided to build a new Berlin Wall and
want a return to the Cold War.”
- Russia Sees Euro, Dollar Investments at Risk in Ukraine Backlash. Sanctions over Ukraine may threaten
Russia’s investments in assets denominated in euros and U.S.
dollars, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said, urging the use
of the nation’s wealth funds for domestic projects. “We should now very attentively study the risks of
investing into dollar and euro securities, given the
geopolitical situation we have right now,” Ulyukayev told
lawmakers in Moscow today when questioned on whether returns on
foreign securities are too low.
- ASML(ASML) Revenue Forecast Trails Estimates on Slowing Demand. ASML
Holding NV (ASML), Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment supplier,
predicted sales trailing analysts’ estimates on slowing demand from
makers of chips that process functions in devices. The stock fell
the most in more than two years. Revenue this quarter will be about 1.6
billion euros ($2.2 billion), ASML, which supplies chipmakers including
Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
(2330), said today. Analysts predict 1.7 billion euros, the average of
estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- European Stocks Rise on Earnings as Tesco, Syngenta Gain.
European stocks rose the most in six weeks as companies from Tesco Plc
to Syngenta (SYNN) AG reported financial results and as data showed
American housing and industrial activity increased. Tesco advanced 2.6
percent after reporting trading profit that exceeded projections.
Syngenta gained 2.3 percent after posting first-quarter revenue that met
estimates and confirming its full-year sales target. GEA Group AG
rallied 6.2 percent after agreeing to sell its heat-exchanges unit to
Triton Advisers Ltd. ASML Holding NV tumbled the most since August 2011
after forecasting second-quarter sales below projections. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.3 percent to 330.82
at the close of trading.
- BofA(BAC) Slides After Posting Loss Tied to Mortgage Accords. Bank
of America Corp. fell the most since June in New York after posting a
surprise loss driven by $6 billion of costs tied to mortgage disputes. The stock slid 3.2 percent to $15.87 at 10:25 a.m. as investors assessed
the latest in a line of legal expenses that have totaled more than $50
billion at the lender since the financial crisis. The drop was the worst
in the 24-company KBW Bank Index today.
- Technology Slump Fuels Concern Startup Values May Follow. The decline in publicly traded technology stocks is fueling
concern that Silicon Valley startups will follow with plummeting
valuations. In the past month, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:US), Facebook Inc., TripAdvisor Inc. and Netflix Inc. have plunged at least
13 percent each. The trading days of April 10 and 11 marked the Nasdaq
Composite Index (CCMP)’s biggest two-day drop since 2011 and the index
is off more than 7 percent since early March. If the stock
declines continue, young entrepreneurs may have to accept more realistic
valuations for their companies, said George Zachary, a partner at
Charles River Ventures in Menlo Park, California.
- GM(GM) Vetoed Better Ignition Part to Save Money, Advocates Say. General Motors Co. chose not to use
a more robust ignition-switch part in Chevrolet Cobalts and
other small cars while they were being designed, a decision that
may have led to deaths, safety advocates said. GM engineers in 2001 designed an alternative to the spring
used in an ignition switch for the 2003 Saturn Ion before it was
rejected, according to a letter sent to Chief Executive Officer
Mary Barra today by Joan Claybrook, a former head of the U.S.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and Clarence Ditlow, executive director of the Center for Auto Safety.
- Stumbling S&P 500 Reaches Worst Stretch of Election Cycle. The
political calendar is working against investors. Already hit by
concerns valuations are too high just as the Federal Reserve withdraws
stimulus, the equity market is entering what has historically been the
worst period of the presidential cycle, the stretch before midterm
elections. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost 2.5
percent and 0.3 percent on average in the second and third quarters of
years like this one, according to data compiled by S&P Capital
IQ and Bloomberg. Stocks in the benchmark gauge are about one percentage
point away from matching such a loss after posting the biggest weekly
slide since 2012.
Barron's:
- Hedge Funds’ Worst Start Since 2008: Preqin. Hedge funds are coming off their worst first-quarter performance since the dark days of 2008. That’s
the contention this morning from data supplier Preqin, whose all
hedge-fund strategies benchmark gained a meager 1.23% for the period. It’s a shift from the last two years, when the early part of the year was
strong. The same Preqin index gained 6.07% and 3.76% in the first quarter of
2012 and 2013, respectively.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Xinhua:
- Shanghai Won't Ease Property Control Policies. Shanghai will
continue its "strict" property control policies, citing Liu Haisheng,
head of the city's housing authority. The city will keep increasing
housing land supply this year, the report said.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) HMOs -1.36% 2) Hospitals -1.31% 3) Semis -1.01%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BAC, BIS, ASML, CNSI, ADTN, LLTC, CSX, STJ, AEM, NTRS, USB, CS, TXN, PFPT, MKSI, VIIX, BLUE, KLAC, LRCX, CSH, ADI, UNH, NGL, ESV and INFY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) FSL 2) BX 3) GOOG 4) BHI 5) WYNN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) BAC 2) WFM 3) UNH 4) TWTR 5) NTAP
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gaming +1.79% 2) Biotech +1.59% 3) Internet +1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- PDS, IBKR, YHOO, SODA, IMGN, ARWR, SFUN, ATHL, NPSP, RGEN, LPI and AWAY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) END 2) DNR 3) NOW 4) SWKS 5) WY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) YHOO 2) INTC 3) YELP 4) CAR 5) SODA
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Conflict Escalation May Yield Stronger NATO Moves. Ukraine’s offensive against pro-Russian separatists may have escalated the conflict to the point
where NATO could be compelled to mount a stronger show of force
to deter any Russian moves beyond eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian troops
retook an airfield and government buildings from armed pro-Russia
separatists in the restive east yesterday. White House spokesman Jay
Carney said that while the U.S. administration is considering military
assistance to Ukraine, lethal aid isn’t an option. The two Ukrainian
operations in the eastern Donetsk region have rattled eastern European
members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and that will require
the 28-member military alliance to deploy defensive forces to member
countries such as Poland, said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to
Ukraine.
- Chinese Police Confront Trust Investors Demanding Repayment. Chinese
investors demanding their
money back from a troubled 973 million-yuan ($156 million) high-yield
product in Shanxi province were confronted by police in front of a China
Construction Bank Corp. (939) branch. People wearing white masks
with the words “despicable bank” and “pay back our money” were among at
least 30 investors facing special-forces officers in dark uniforms in
Taiyuan city, about 521 kilometers (324 miles) southwest of Beijing. The
nation’s second-largest bank is the custodian of the Songhuajiang River
No. 77 trust, which missed six payments as of last month, according to
the Economic Observer. “We have been cheated by CCB,” said Wang Fengying, 60, a
Shanxi resident who said her husband had invested 1 million yuan
in the product. “Our parents are very old. We need the money
for their medical bills and to buy a home for my child. We are
so miserable and they won’t even let us demand our money back.”
- Australian Buyers' Dreams Deferred as Housing Prices Rise. Mortgage
rates at their lowest in four-and-a-half years are helping drive
household debt to record levels in Australia. The average home-loan size
jumped to an all-time high of A$322,900 in January, according to
Australian Bureau of Statistics data. As cheap money and a shortage of
housing in Australia’s biggest cities spurs home values to new heights,
first-time buyers face
a choice of taking on more debt or dropping out of the market. Australia’s
housing debt equaled a record 134.6 percent of disposable income at the
end of 2013, up from 130.9 percent a year earlier, according to the
central bank. The ratio was 119.9 percent in the U.K., 104.5 percent in
Canada, and 78.5 percent in the U.S. at the end of 2012, the most recent data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development showed. “Spiraling house prices will probably lead to trouble later, either because they in turn fall, or households will
extend themselves too far,” Martin North, principal at data
firm Digital Finance Analytics, wrote on the firm’s website this
month.
- Asian Stocks Climb on U.S. Rally; Kiwi Drops Before Data.
Asian stocks climbed, with Japan’s Topix index heading for its biggest
gain in seven weeks, after U.S. equities rallied on earnings. The
currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia weakened before
economic-growth data from China, the countries’ biggest trading partner.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent as of 9:56
a.m.
- Scottish Independence Gains Momentum as Poll Shows Gap Narrowing.
A survey by TNS published today found the gap narrowed to 12
percentage points from 14 points a month earlier and 19 points in
September when the company started monthly polling. The results showed
41 percent of voters in Scotland plan to
reject independence, a drop of one point, with 29 percent in
favor, an increase of one point. Thirty percent of voters said
they were undecided, unchanged from a month before.
- Buyout
Loans Eclipse '07 Record in Deal Frenzy: Credit Markets. The U.S.
junk-loan market has never fueled so much dealmaking. A total of $85
billion of loans have been raises this year to finance acquisitions,
topping 2007's record pace, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Issuance is
set to accelerate as Avago Technologies Ltd. locks in the year's
second-biggest loan for its takeover of chipmaker LSI Corp as soon as
today and Men's Wearhouse Inc. borrows $1.1 billion to fund its deal for
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc. Leveraged loans are booming as the value of
takeovers in the U.S. reaches levels last seen in 2008. While
regulators have warned excesses may be emerging in riskier parts of the
market as the Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy extends into a
sixth year, the loan surge underscores renewed confidence in the
ability of the least-creditworthy companies to expand as the world's
largest economy strengthens. First-lien borrowings at speculative-grade
companies equaled 4.2 times their earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortization in the first quarter, the highest since
the 4.6 ratio in the last three months of 2007, according to S&P
Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary & Data.
Wall Street Journal:
- Ukraine Uses Military Force for First Time. Ukraine Sends Armored Units Into Restive East; U.S. Praises 'Measured Response'. Ukraine's military fired its first shots Tuesday in the fight to
regain control of the restive east from pro-Russian separatists, as
soldiers repelled an armed mob from a military air base. Soldiers
riding aboard armored personnel carriers took up positions around the
region, setting up checkpoints along key roads, as transport helicopters
ferried in dozens of paratroopers and elite security-service officers.
- Housing Market Slow to Hit Its Spring Stride. Expected Growth Remains Sluggish as Supply Issues Persist. A flurry of recent housing data suggests that the market's spring
selling season is getting off to a slow start, a worrisome sign after a
winter of expectations that warmer weather would rekindle growth. Reports
from local real-estate agent groups in some of the markets that were
the first to rebound, including Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, show
year-over-year declines in March home sales.
- Coalition of the Disappointed. Obama fires up racial and gender resentments to get out the vote. You can tell it's an election year because so many noncrises are
suddenly urgent priorities. Real median household income is still lower
than it was in 2007, the smallest share of Americans is working since
1978, and the Russians are marching west, but Democrats are training
fire on race, gender and the grievances of identity politics.
Fox News:
- Administration reportedly holding back on non-lethal aid to Ukraine. The
Obama administration reportedly is withholding even non-lethal
military aid to Ukraine for fear it could further inflame tensions --
despite already intensifying clashes between the country's government
and pro-Russia militiamen. A critical report detailing the requests was
sent to Congress and the
White House by retired Gen. Wesley Clark and former Defense Department
official Phillip Karber, according to The Washington Free Beacon.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
c/net:
Reuters:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.50 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.5 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Housing Starts for March are estimated to rise to 970K versus 907K in February.
- Building Permits for March are estimated to fall to 1010K versus 1018K in February.
9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in February.
- Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to fall to 78.7% versus 78.8% in February
- Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in February.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+1,235,000 barrels versus a +4,030,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,560,000 barrels versus a
-5,188,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to rise by 30,000 barrels versus a 239,000 barrel gain the
prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.01%
versus a -.2% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
- U.S. Fed's Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Stein speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking,
Fed's Fisher speaking, German inflation data, Bank of Canada decision,
Eurozone CPI, UK unemployment rate, weekly MBA mortgage applications
report, (GPS) investor meeting, (RHT) analyst day and the BofA Auto
Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 15.94 -1.06%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.73 -.09%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 +1.55%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.06 -1.30%
- ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -2.11%
- Total Put/Call .97 +31.08%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.24 +1.25%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.33 +2.90%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.10 -.84%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 88.08 -.11%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 285.09 +1.57%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.51 -.11%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 19.5 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- Yield Curve 226.0 -1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $117.10/Metric Tonne +.09%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.70 +4.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.10 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
