Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.78%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.44% 2) Homebuilders +2.18% 3) Oil Service +1.98%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRTA, RALY, CTRP, BIIB, SQM, NKE, QUNR, KBH and OC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CVC 2) BIIB 3) NKE 4) NFX 5) HZNP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CTRP 2) BIIB 3) NKE 4) PRTA 5) KBH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• EU Pledges to Extend Russia Sanctions, Delays Confirming. European Union leaders made a pledge to extend sanctions against Russia until the end of the year, trying to pressure the Kremlin to uphold the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. Yet the political commitment stopped short of the ironclad decision sought by hardliners in eastern Europe, leaving open the possibility that the trade and investment curbs might not be renewed when they expire in July.  
• Russian Toilets Used as a Hedge Against Fallout From Ruble Rout. At a time when President Vladimir Putin’s standoff with the West is slowing the economy and crimping sales at home, Kazakhs -- the third biggest net buyers of Russian goods -- are boosting orders to benefit from the 41 percent depreciation that’s made the ruble the worst-performing currency of the past year. Purchases of rubles quadrupled in Kazakhstan in January from a year earlier to total 60 billion rubles ($1 billion) for the four months from October, according to data from Kazakhstan’s central bank in Almaty.  
• EU Asks Greece for More Reforms to Speed Aid Negotiations. Greece must submit a more concrete reform plan to euro-area authorities so that bailout talks can speed up, European Union leaders said after nearly four hours of talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Brussels. With EU chiefs warning that time is running out for Greece to overcome a standoff over aid, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said that the Greek government needed to submit new measures rapidly. 
• Bank Deposit Flight Has Accelerated in Greece: Humes. (video) 
• China Starts 10-Year Bond Futures Trading as Rate Controls Ease. China will allow trading of 10-year government bond futures, the latest step in a plan to build a market-based yield curve and liberalize interest rates. The China Financial Futures Exchange will officially list the 10-year contracts on Friday, after allowing trading of five-year sovereign debt futures in September 2013. That followed an 18-year hiatus after an investigation into alleged market manipulation in the late 1990s. 
• Most Asian Stocks Retreat as Materials, Tech Shares Lead Drop. Most Asian stocks dropped, following declines in U.S. shares, as materials and technology companies led losses. About three shares fell for every two that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added less than 0.1 percent to 146.79 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo.
• Oil Slump Extends to a Fifth Week as Global Glut Seen Expanding. Oil trading near the lowest price in six years is headed for a fifth weekly drop amid signs the global supply glut is worsening. Futures were little changed in New York after falling for the seventh time in eight days on Thursday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries needs to keep its production target unchanged to maintain market share, said Kuwait, the group’s third-largest member. Iran may increase oil exports within months of reaching a deal on its nuclear program, according to U.S. and European officials.
• Tarullo Targets Commodity Risks at Goldman Sachs(GS), Morgan Stanley(MS). Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo questioned whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley should be allowed to own physical commodities because the practice exposes them to risks outside traditional banking. The New York-based companies are allowed “to engage in the extraction, transportation of potentially highly combustible materials with substantial risks associated with them,” Tarullo told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Such activity appears to “breach the wall between banking and commerce.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Talks Stall Over Ending of Sanctions. As March 31 deadline nears for nuclear agreement, Tehran wants U.N. sanctions lifted right away; U.S., Europeans say ‘no way.’
  When international sanctions on Iran would be lifted has emerged as one of the largest remaining stumbling blocks to an agreement to constrain Tehran’s nuclear program by a March 31 deadline, according to U.S., European and Iranian officials. 
• Crimea Is Still Ukraine. The Russian annexation has robbed Ukrainian citizens on the peninsula of the right to live in their own state. One year ago, the Ukrainian territory of Crimea was illegally annexed by our neighbor and partner at the time, the Russian Federation. One year ago, as Russian special forces sacked the regional parliament and silenced dissenting voices, a farce referendum was held to position Moscow’s land grab behind a facade of legitimacy. 
• Fed Is Pushing and Pulling on Rates Riddle. Policy makers face challenge in moving long-term yields up; ‘conundrum’ for new era.
• How Foreigners Became America’s Financial Regulators. The Fed and Treasury are answering to a board of the G-20 without admitting it to the American people.

Fox News:

• US to train 750 Ukraine troops as Russian aggression continues. (video) With Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine continuing, the White House announced Wednesday the U.S. will begin training 750 Ukraine troops. The news came after a phone call between Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and coincided with Russians celebrating the first anniversary of their country’s annexation of Crimea.

CNBC:

• Nike(NKE) earnings: 89 cents per share vs. expected EPS of 84 cents. (video) Nike topped Wall Street's earnings estimates on Thursday, but sales figures came in below expectations as it struggled with the negative impacts of a stronger dollar.
• Brace for recession next year: Advisor. (video) Right now the economic trend in the United States is positive, but the "party" for the market will come to an end later this year and a recession will likely hit in 2016, a market expert told CNBC on Thursday.

Zero Hedge:

• Paul Tudor Jones Warns This "Disastrous Market Mania" Will End "By Revolution, Taxes, Or War".
• Yellen Hangover Strikes Stocks, Bonds, Euro, Oil; Banks Bashed, Biotechs Boom. (graph)
• Russian Submarine Activity Surges 50% Since 2014, Admiral Claims "Not Saber-Rattling".
• Albert Edwards: "It Is Already Too Late To Avert Another Crisis". (graph)
• The 'Real' Fed Dot Plot.. 
• Japanese Pension Funds Dive Into Stocks To "Increase Risk-Taking".
• FBI Moves to Broaden Hacking Authority - Google(GOOG) Says it Poses “Monumental Constitutional Concern”.
• Government Hints Fannie/Freddie Would Need Another Bailout If Conditions Deteriorate. (graph)
• Hours After Hinting At Mandatory Voting, Obama Talks Down "Suggestion" Following Backlash.

Business Insider:

• Hillary Clinton's money problems keep getting worse.
• Congress has subpoenaed about a dozen people who worked in Hillary Clinton's State Department.
• 3 charts that show America's big banks are only getting bigger. (graph)

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $8.6 bln in latest week - Lipper.

Financial Times: 

• White House reconsiders supporting Israel at UN. The White House said on Thursday that it was reconsidering the support it has given Israel at the UN even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to row back his election campaign comments rejecting a Palestinian state.

Evening Recommendations 
Piper Jaffray:

• Rated (COO) Overweight.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +14.0 basis points (new series).

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.0 +.5 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DRI)/.84
• (KBH)/.02
• (TIF)/1.51

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, German PPI, (ICPT) investor meeting and the (BIIB) Alzheimer data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Drop, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.09 +.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.15 -1.62%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.70 +1.04%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.46 +4.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 -11.69%

• Total Put/Call .87 -10.31%

• NYSE Arms 1.80 +112.88% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.30 +1.70%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,020.0 +40.1%%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.80 +4.0%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.65 +1.52%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.20 -.60%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 410.92 +.10%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.09 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 23.25 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -3.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 136.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.0/Metric Tonne -.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -72.10 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.30 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +7.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Ukraine Calls for New Peace Talks as Tusk Advocates EU Sanctions. Ukraine and Germany called for fresh talks about a cease-fire between government troops and rebels after Russia accused its neighbor of putting the peace deal at risk. European Union President Donald Tusk also urged members to extend sanctions against Russia until the end of the year. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in a phone call to initiate a meeting between their foreign ministers and those of France and Russia, following accusations from Russia that its neighbor was undermining the truce signed in Belarus’s capital last month. “If everything will be on the brink of collapse because the Minsk agreements aren’t being observed by one side of the conflict, then of course vigorous efforts will be needed at all levels,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call on Thursday.   
• EU Leaders Urge Tsipras to Compromise as Time Runs Out. European Union leaders urged Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to find a compromise with Greece’s euro-area creditors, as France and Germany prepared for negotiations on the sidelines of Thursday’s summit in Brussels. Tsipras will meet later this evening with Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Francois Hollande and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Also present will be Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the euro-area finance ministers’ group that is the more usual forum for deliberating Greece’s predicament.
• Merkel Vows to Keep Euro Intact as She Dives Into Greek Standoff. (video) German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed to keep the euro intact as the strain of keeping Greece afloat opened divisions among European Central Bank policy makers. Merkel will meet Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at a European Union summit in Brussels Thursday with work to prepare for more financial aid stalled and the ECB Governing Council fending off calls from its own banking supervisors to tighten the screws on the government in Athens. “If the euro fails, Europe fails,” Merkel told German lawmakers in Berlin before she traveled to Brussels, reprising an expression she adopted during the height of the debt crisis from 2010 to 2012.
• The Company Securing Your Internet Has Close Ties to Russian Spies. (video) Kaspersky Lab has published reports on alleged electronic espionage by the U.S., Israel, and the U.K.—but it’s yet to look at Russia. Kaspersky Lab sells security software, including antivirus programs recommended by big-box stores and other U.S. PC retailers. The Moscow-based company ranks sixth in revenue among security-software makers, taking in $667 million in 2013, and is a favorite among Best Buy’s Geek Squad technicians and reviewers on Amazon.com. Founder and Chief Executive Officer Eugene Kaspersky used to work for the KGB, and in 2007, one of the company’s Japanese ad campaigns used the slogan “A Specialist in Cryptography from KGB.”
• European Stocks Rise to Highest Since 2000 After Fed Statement. European stocks climbed to their highest level since 2000, as the Federal Reserve acknowledged a moderation in economic growth, fueling speculation it won’t be in a rush to raise interest rates. All but two of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced, with energy companies leading gains. Royal Dutch Shell Plc rose 1 percent, while Premier Oil Plc added 8 percent, for the biggest increase on the equity benchmark. The Stoxx 600 increased 0.6 percent to 400.83 at the close of trading.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Forex Market Erupts on Central-Bank Moves. Increased volatility marks turnaround for currency market after years of relative calm.

Fox News: 

• Iran deal would reportedly ease sanctions immediately, allow nuclear enrichment. International sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy for years would be immediately eased and the Islamic Republic could continue to enrich uranium under the terms of a deal being hammered out in Geneva between Tehran and six world powers, according to a report Thursday.

CNBC: 

• Moment of truth for Biogen's big Alzheimer's bet. (video) The most anticipated event for Biogen Idec's drug pipeline, Friday's release of data on its experimental Alzheimer's medicine, started 12 years ago with the rekindling of an old friendship.
• Yardeni: Markets all rigged, it is what it is. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Philly Fed Signals Worst Margin Compression Since Lehman. (graph)
• US Dollar Recovers All FOMC Jawbone Losses, EUR Plunges 400 Pips. (graph)
• After Pillaging Pensions, Greece Raids Utilities To Repay Troika; Bonds Plunge As Bank Run Accelerates.
• Financials Give Up All Fed-Fueled Gains, Energy Stocks Battered. (graph)
• TAG Heuer Unveils Smartwatch Partnership With Google(GOOG).
• Philly Fed Suffers Worst Run In 3 Years, All Sub-Indices Collapse. (graph)
• Initial Claims Hold Worst Levels In 6 Months As Shale State Joblessness Re-Surges. (graph)
• The Unraveling Is Gathering Speed.
• The Seven Reasons Behind The Record Surge In Chinese Stocks. (graph)
• How Many Shale Oil Plays Make Money At $37 Per Barrel? (Spoiler Alert: None).

Business Insider:

• I was at the Fed meeting on Wednesday, and I think the market got it wrong. The problem with the position that the Fed will never raise rates is that all it takes is one meeting for the picture to change, or for this stance to be wrong. If the Fed really does plan to be data dependent — and I think it does — it will one day look at the data and decide it is time to raise interest rates. And that day is way sooner to becoming a reality than the market expects.
• Retailers are launching a new generation of e-commerce membership programs modeled on 'Amazon Prime'.
• ISIS claims responsibility for Tunisia museum attack that killed 23.
• ALBERT EDWARDS: It is already too late to raise rates.
• The Obama administration is exempting a key White House office from handing over their records.
• Russia's massive military exercises are a clear warning to NATO.
• Oil is getting slammed again.

Telegraph:

• Europe gets tough with Greece ahead of crunch EU summit. Angela Merkel warns there will be "no solution" to the country's bail-out stand-off at European Council meeting.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.91%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -5.06% 2) Oil Service -2.07% 3) Construction -1.55%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CNCE, VNCE, DRC, WSM, NPO, MTCN, SQM, NUE, YELP, ADTN, NKTR, PDCE, ROG, BTI, POT, PRSC, MTOR, PAH, VIV, ENL, CTRP, CHK, GEF, PRGO and NMBL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GES 2) YELP 3) LEN 4) GREK 5) TIF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JPM 2) CAT 3) NUE 4) LEN 5) TGT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.22%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.23% 2) Biotech +.94% 3) Restaurants +.68%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RTRX, GOLD, ESPR, GES, JUNO, VSLR, FOLD, EYES, KITE, CLDN, TGTX and IRWD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GES 2) RAD 3) HZNP 4) FOLD 5) WSM
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CSC 2) AET 3) JBL 4) ICE 5) FB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume