Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, earnings concerns, profit-taking, crude oil weakness and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,108.10 +2.66%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,108.10 +2.66%

• DJIA 18,127.65 +2.13%

• NASDAQ 5,026.42 +3.18%

• Russell 2000 1,266.37 +2.78%

• S&P 500 High Beta 35.01 +3.0% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.30 +1.27% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,098.01 +2.72%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,014.10 +2.96%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,032.05 +2.41%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 503.22 +1.86%

• Solactive US Cyclical 140.42 +1.58%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,038.47 +2.67%

• Transports 9,148.13 +2.27%

• Utilities 595.33 +3.91%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 116.74 +2.38%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.88 +3.39%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,211.30 +1.54%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,002.44 +.86%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 238,286 +1.56%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 116 +135

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0% -11.13%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 243,488 -6.59%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,760,721 +5.38%

• Total Put/Call .80 -33.88%

• OEX Put/Call .88 -5.38%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 +26.92%

• NYSE Arms .75 -43.60%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.02 -18.62%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.24 -.03%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.54 -3.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.37 -5.73%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,944.03 +1.77%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.671 Trillion -.71%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.326 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.2 -14.1%
• AAII % Bears 31.5 +23.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 214.11 +1.62%

• Crude Oil 46.57 +3.49%

• Reformulated Gasoline 179.78 +2.38%

• Natural Gas 2.79 +2.39%

• Heating Oil 173.43 +1.33%

• Gold 1,184.60 +2.26%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 169.54 +.59%

• Copper 276.10 +3.23%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 54.66 USD/Ton -5.20%

• Lumber 280.80 +2.67%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,130.8 +1.67%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.7% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0693 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.33 -.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -72.10 -12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.20 -3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.60 -6.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 97.91 -2.27%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.69 +1.97%

• Yield Curve 135.0 -11.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.93% -18.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.458 Trillion +.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.82 +5.5%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 -1.90%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.79 +3.24%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.64 -8.99%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 351.22 -2.23%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.01 +2.56%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 344.61 -1.76%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 463.96 -4.42%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.19 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77% +7.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.50 +1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -3.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.86 -4.44%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,025.0 +38.58%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.30 +15.14%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 322.0 -23.24%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 88.0 +3.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.980 Trillion -.63%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.30 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 304,750 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.78% -8.0 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 399.30 -3.88%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.2 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.43/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 584.0 +3.92%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,034.29 -3.15%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
• Rail Freight Carloads 274,175 +8.04%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +3.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +6.8%

• Biotech +6.2%

• Steel +5.9%

• Gold & Silver +5.6%

• REITs +5.4%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks +1.4% 

• Networking +1.1%

• Tobacco +.7%

• Agriculture +.6%

• Banks +.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• ESPR, RTRX, FOLD, BBX, RGEN, FRSH, EBIX, TA, TLYS, ITG, AKBA, PRSC, HPTX, NVRO, UAM, BGC, CKEC, GES, LOCO, JBL, IMDZ, GNCMA, CQH, REV and LTM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• TUES, CNCE, CBPX, PDVW, MTOR, RSPP, FTD, VNCE, EPZM and VEC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.03 -7.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.86 +1.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.36 -1.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.96 -1.75%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +57.53%

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.64%

• NYSE Arms .59 -66.99% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.89 -1.02%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,025.0 +.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.35 +3.94%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.88 -7.48%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.05 -4.78%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 320.61 -22.3% (new series)

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.19 +.09%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 26.0 +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 135.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.66/Metric Tonne -.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -72.10 unch.
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.20 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine Rebels Plan Offensive as Government Fortifies Key Port. Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine are preparing for a new offensive to expand their territory, signaling a six-week-old truce is in danger of crumbling. “We’ll try to push them from here to hell because we’re tired of them killing civilians with indiscriminate fire,” Alexander Khodakovsky, who commands the 3,500-man Vostok Brigade, said in an interview at his headquarters in Donetsk. The campaign may start in the “foreseeable future,” according to Khodakovsky, who also heads the security council of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. A rebel offensive would shatter the cease-fire and raise the risk of escalating U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia, which they blame for stoking the conflict. Ukraine and Germany, which brokered the accord with France, are calling for fresh talks as President Petro Poroshenko’s government and the insurgents accuse each other of violations. 
• Worst Yet to Come for Russian Banks, Sberbank CEO Gref Says. OAO Sberbank Chief Executive Officer Herman Gref said the worst is yet to come for Russia’s banking industry still reeling from last year’s collapse of the ruble and the economic slump. Russia’s banking sector has not yet surpassed “the peak of its problems,” Gref, who runs the country’s largest lender, told reporters in Moscow on Friday. “They are still ahead.” 
• EU Dangles Prospect of Aid to Entice Greece Into Action. Greece could win an infusion of bailout money as soon as next week if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can deliver an adequate package of reform measures, an EU official told reporters in Brussels. European Union leaders sought to revive bailout talks at a meeting in Brussels by signaling they might soon be ready to release some funds so long as Greece fulfills its commitments. The first money could come from profits euro members made when the European Central Bank bought discounted Greek debt during an earlier phase of the financial crisis. There’s also money left in the country’s 240 billion-euro ($258 billion) bailout program.
• Suicide Bombs Hit Shiite Mosques in Yemen, 120 Reported Dead. Suicide bombers killed dozens of worshipers at two mosques in Yemen’s capital Sana’a during Friday prayers, a day after fighting spread to the south of the country. At least 120 people died in the attacks on the Badr and al-Hashoosh mosques, according to the al-Haris news service, run by the Interior Ministry. The mosques, like most of the capital, are controlled by the Shiite Houthi rebel movement, based in north Yemen, which has been battling forces loyal to President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi as well as al-Qaeda militants.  
• European Stocks Inch Toward Record as FTSE 100 Rises Above 7,000. European stocks rose near an all-time high as miners and oil shares led gains. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed above 7,000 for the first time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8 percent to 404.01 at the close of trading. It is 0.4 percent away from a record close in March 2000, having surpassed the forecasts of 12 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg in January.
• Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices. The next big threat to oil prices isn’t from OPEC or Bakken shale. It’s Russian samovars, or teapots. Simple refineries that process crude into fuel oil are scaling back, because when oil prices slump, the government reduces the discount that these refiners -- known as teapots to those in the industry -- get for exporting fuel. They use less crude, freeing it up for sale abroad, which in turn adds to the global glut. Russia may increase oil exports by as much as 250,000 barrels a day this year, according to James Henderson, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies who’s followed the country’s energy industry for more than 20 years. That would equate to 5 percent growth in shipments, the most in at least a decade.  
• Oil Rot Spreads as Loan Default Claim Puts Connacher on Brink. A New York lawsuit is threatening to make Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. a casualty of crude’s collapse in Canada’s oil sands as creditors squeeze small producers in one of the priciest places to extract the fuel. As oil prices resumed their slide to a new six-year low this week, creditors filed suit on Monday demanding Connacher immediately repay a $128.4 million loan. If successful, the suit would make it difficult for the company to stay in business unless it finds some other source of capital, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc.
• European Coal Falls to Lowest Since 2007 as Demand Outlook Dims. European coal prices fell to the lowest in more than seven years amid a worldwide glut of the fuel as governments from the U.S. to China boost efforts to shift away from the most-polluting energy source. Prices for delivery next year to northwest Europe slid as much as 0.7 percent, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark contract is headed for a third straight weekly decline as demand growth slows in China, the world’s biggest consumer. 
• Iron Ore Slumps Below $55 as China Slowdown Hurts Outlook. Iron ore plunged below $55 a dry metric ton as signs of a slowdown in China’s economy added to concerns that demand will weaken from the largest buyer amid a global surplus. Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao, China, sank to $54.66 a ton on Friday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. That’s the lowest since at least May 2008, when Metal Bulletin started compiling weekly prices. Prices retreated 5.2 percent this week, extending losses in 2015 to 23 percent.
• Tiffany(TIF) Predicts Profit Plunge as Strong Dollar Crimps Sales. (video) Tiffany & Co., the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry chain, predicted a 30 percent decline in net income this quarter as currency headwinds and sluggish sales hamper results. The drop in the first quarter will be followed by a more “modest” decrease in the following period, the New York-based company said in a statement on Friday. Worldwide sales will decline about 10 percent in the first quarter, partly because of a slowdown in the Americas region, Tiffany said. The stronger dollar has hit Tiffany with a double-whammy by lowering the value of overseas sales and making it less attractive for foreign tourists to come to the U.S. to shop.

ZeroHedge: 

• When The World's Reserve Currency Flash Crashed: "I Haven’t Seen Anything Like It Since The Financial Crisis". (graph)
• "Market Is Hyper Overpriced" Warns Retiring Fed President; "Significiant Correction" Coming. (video)
• Rig Count Plunge Continues: Total Rigs Lowest Since March 2011, Fastest Drop Since 1986. (graph)
• The Latest Flashing Red Light: Global Earnings Plunge Most Since Lehman. (graph)
• Chart Of The Day: Biotechs. (graph)
• Underwater Homeowners "Here To Stay" Zillow Says. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The euro is going bananas. (graph)
• Analysts are going crazy for this biotech company after results from an Alzheimer's trial.
• Japan and Australia are ignoring warnings from the US not to join China's new bank.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.45%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -1.01% 2) Hospitals -.53% 3) Gaming -.46%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MAC, SXCP, FOLD, LBIO, TKMR, TIF, CMCM, YOKU, GMED, SONS, VNCE, ARG, FLXN, DTYS, VIIX, CLDN, LECO, KITE, FWP, PII, EIX, ANAC, DRNA, ASCMA, ASPX, WNC, TGTX, MAC, KITE, SONS and THRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUV 2) TIF 3) IBB 4) HOT 5) MON

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DATA 2) TSO 3) UCTT 4) CCG 5) MTGE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume