BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, August 07, 2015

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 4:21 PM

S&P 500 2,076.08 -1.33%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 4:07 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,076.08 -1.33%

DJIA 17,373.30 -1.79%

NASDAQ 5,043.44 -1.65%

Russell 2000 1,206.48 -2.65%

S&P 500 High Beta 31.75 -1.35%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 132.08 -4.88%

Wilshire 5000 21,667.10 -1.35%

Russell 1000 Growth 1,009.70 -1.47%

Russell 1000 Value 1,000.76 -1.22%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 513.97 -.24%

Solactive US Cyclical 127.54 -.95%

Morgan Stanley Technology 1,065.93 -.04%

Transports 8,250.88 -1.68%

Utilities 590.49 +1.12%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 119.25 -.97%

MSCI Emerging Markets 36.46 -1.8%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,204.44 -.30%

HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,009.30 +.29%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 232,026 -.34%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -670 -453

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 8.57 -79.57%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 247,093 +1.5%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,736,523 +2.48%

Total Put/Call 1.23 +12.84%

OEX Put/Call .63 -91.38%

ISE Sentiment 56.0 -20.0%

NYSE Arms 1.45 -16.29%

Volatility(VIX) 13.71 +13.2%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.08 -4.97%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.34 +.32%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.36 unch.

Smart Money Flow Index 16,744.48 -1.01%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.669 Trillion +.81%

ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.220 Billion

AAII % Bulls 24.32 +15.21%

AAII % Bears 31.66 -22.2%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 198.32 -2.10%

Crude Oil 43.80 -6.37%

Reformulated Gasoline 163.05 -7.94%

Natural Gas 2.80 +3.17%

Heating Oil 154.28 -2.69%

Gold 1,091.40 -.28%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.44 -2.16%

Copper 232.55 -1.13%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 236.67 USD/Ton unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 56.40 USD/Ton +5.6%

Lumber 259.0 +3.25%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,057.33 +.1%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .2% unch.

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0524 -5.24%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.96 -.10%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.2 +7.2 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +7.9 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +7.9 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/17
# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.62 -2.94%

US Dollar Index 97.59 +.40%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.21 +.06%

Yield Curve 145.0 -7.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.17% -2.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.449 Trillion +.02%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.17 +.01%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 246.0 +3.70%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.48 +.42%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 65.25 +3.66%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 303.59 +3.49%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.01 +1.57%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 698.07 +3.19%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 359.29 +5.77%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.99 -.08%

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66% -8.0 basis points

TED Spread 28.0 +4.0 basis points

2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +1.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5-1.0 basis point

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 75.46 +8.0%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,840.0 +16.3%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.58 +3.97%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 336.44 +5.73%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 96.0 -2.5 basis points

M1 Money Supply $3.029 Trillion +.35%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,066.90 +.80%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 268,250 -6,500

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.91% -7 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 397.20 +4.66%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.3 -.2 point

Weekly Retail Sales +1.30% +10.0 basis points

Nationwide Gas $2.62/gallon -.04/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 1,201 +6.2%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 798.89 -2.44%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -14.29%

Rail Freight Carloads 269,468 -.55%

Best Performing Style

Mid-Cap Value -.9%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth -3.1%

Leading Sectors

Gaming +3.4%

Telecom +1.3%

Utilities +1.1%

HMOs +1.1%

Defense +.9%

Lagging Sectors

Biotech -4.1%

Homebuilders -4.2%

Road & Rail -4.2%

Alt Energy -4.42%

Coal -20.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (43)

IPCM, LXRX, TREE, YRCW, MGI, CHUY, METR, LGIH, SKYW, XXIA, AMSG, ABMD, NGVC, LMNX, CCE, BXLT, VVI, SRI, FSLR, HLF, MOH, ZLTQ, ECOM, ZEN, PLOW, CDW, HDP, GFF, SRDX, IMPR, VA, HPY, DERM, TUMI, IMMR, HTBI, SABR, DENN, RNG, SCOR, COLM, CSGS and WWWW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (86)

DGI, NSP, SERV, H, GDDY, TSN, RL, LPNT, DISCK, SNI, VMW, WSTC, ONCE, LPLA, CCOI, NRZ, DISCA, PGTI, OMCL, VECO, MSG, BKD, KCG, LAMR, WMC, MPW, LMOS, SBH, DIS, MDP, FNGN, FMI, ALL, AMCX, TWX, MCRN, QLYS, RLGY, TREX, PSIX, FOX, FOXA, BERY, ELGX, SQI, CORI, ATRO, TG, INT, VIRT, CPSI, UIHC, MG, PBPB, HBI, DWA, ECHO, BOOT, PWR, TRMB, EIGI, MEG, TDC, NLS, TAL, GNRC, NYLD, OUTR, HYH, CGNX, DWRE, MNK, ABCO, VIA, INOV, VIAB, CSII, TRS, PAGP, ENVA, GMCR, SUNE, TNET, PHH, LL and AAC

Weekly Charts

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Fed Rate Hike Worries, China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 2:34 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Lower

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

Volume: Slightly Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 14.36 +4.38%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.30 -.03%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.36 unch.

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.95 -.36%

ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -9.68%

Total Put/Call 1.21 -5.47%

NYSE Arms 1.65 +129.42%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.85 +1.97%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,837.0 +1.27%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.58 +2.33%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.48 +1.79%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.25 +.61%

Emerging Market CDS Index 336.88 +.55%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.99 -.10%

2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.75 basis point

TED Spread 28.0 +3.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +3.0 basis points

Yield Curve 145.0 -8.0 basis points

China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.40/Metric Tonne n/a

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.2 -.6 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 -6.5 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +2.0 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -1.0 basis point
# of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 4.62 -.06

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -124 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -161 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:08 PM

Bloomberg:

Jaguar Land Rover China Slump Drags Down Tata Motors Profit. A slump in China sales at Jaguar Land Rover amid a market slowdown dragged down profit at its Indian parent Tata Motors Ltd. for a fourth straight quarter. Net income fell 49 percent to 27.7 billion rupees ($434 million) in the three months through June, the Mumbai-based company said. That trailed the 31.4 billion-rupee median of 31 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profit at Jaguar Land Rover dropped 29 percent to 492 million pounds ($764 million). Jaguar Land Rover retail sales plunged 33 percent in China in the quarter, resulting in a 1 percent decline in worldwide deliveries. The luxury unit has cut its sales targets and prices in China as automakers from Toyota Motor Corp. to BMW AG warn about a slowdown in the world’s biggest auto market. “Jaguar Land Rover is the most hit in China because they were the fastest growing premium carmaker,” Max Warburton, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., said by telephone. “It’s a broad market problem in China and every carmaker is going to have get used to making less money in China.”
Prada Sales Miss Estimates as China Luxury Slump Persists. Prada SpA reported first-half revenue that missed analysts’ estimates as demand for its handbags and wallets in Hong Kong and Macau continued to wane. Sales rose 4 percent to 1.82 billion euros ($2 billion), the Milan-based luxury goods maker said Friday in a statement. Analysts predicted 1.87 billion euros, based on the median of nine estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The Asia-Pacific region, Prada’s most important market, showed a “similar negative trend” to the first quarter, when Greater China sales fell 19 percent excluding currency effects, Prada said.
Carney Is Right to Identify China as Risk: Mackinnon. (video)
Sumitomo Metal Reduces Profit Target as China Demand Slows. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan’s biggest nickel producer, cut its first-half profit forecast as China’s slower demand weakens commodity prices more than anticipated. Net income is expected to fall to 45 billion yen ($361 million) for the six months to Sept. 30, down 19 percent from a year earlier and below its May estimate of 46 billion yen, the company said Friday in a statement. Sales are pegged at 465 billion yen, unchanged from its previous forecast, while its operating profit target was cut by 5.5 percent to 52 billion yen. The company kept its full-year earnings guidance.
Economists Think Brazil Will Get Downgraded to Junk in the Next Few Years. A rating cut will be one more setback for the already struggling economy. From another economic recession to a juicy corruption scandal embroiling President Dilma Rousseff, Brazil has had a tough 2015. It's now looking down the barrel of another likely event: a junk rating of its government bonds.Latin America's largest economy has a 70 percent chance of losing its investment grade rating in the next few years, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
German Industrial Production Drops as Chinese Slowdown Looms. German industrial production unexpectedly decreased in June, highlighting the risks for Europe’s largest economy from weaker growth in emerging-market countries such as China. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.4 percent after rising a revised 0.2 percent in May, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Friday. The typically volatile number compares with a median estimate of a 0.3 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey. Exports fell 1 percent while imports dropped 0.5 percent.
Emerging Currencies, Stocks Head to Weekly Drop on Fed Outlook. Emerging-market currencies headed for a seventh straight weekly decline and stocks slumped as data showing the U.S. economy continued to strengthen bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. A Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies slid 1 percent this week as of 11:28 a.m. in New York. The ruble led the decline, dropping 3.9 percent as crude, Russia’s biggest export, slumped deeper into a bear market. The real fell 2.6 percent and Brazilian bond yields surged as concern mounted that the country’s credit rating will be cut to junk. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 1.9 percent this week to 884.93, led by technology and energy stocks.
European Stocks Slide on Media Tumble and U.S. Rate Rise Bets. (video) European stocks fell for a second day, with media shares leading declines, while U.S.-payrolls data fueled bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.9 percent to 397.07 at the close. Shares extended losses in late trading, cutting their weekly gain to 0.2 percent.
Hedge Fund Losses From Commodity Slump Sparking Investor Exodus. Investors are demanding their money back as losses mount. When even Cargill Inc., the world’s largest grain trader, decides to liquidate its own hedge fund, that’s a sign that commodity speculators are in trouble. Hedge funds focused on raw materials lost money on average in the first half, the Newedge Commodity Trading Index shows. Diminishing investor demand spurred Cargill's Black River Asset Management unit to shut its commodities fund last month. Others enduring redemptions include Armajaro Asset Management LLP, which closed one of its funds, Carlyle Group LP's Vermillion Asset Management and Krom River Trading AG. While hedge funds are designed to make money in both bull and bear markets, managers have a bias toward wagering on rising prices and that’s left them vulnerable in this year’s slump, said Donald Steinbrugge, managing partner of Agecroft Partners LLC. The Bloomberg Commodity Index tumbled 29 percent in the past year and 18 of its 22 components are in a bear market.
Interest Rates Are Already Hurting Mortgage REIT ETFs. And this one in particular. R.E.M. is the name of an alternative rock band that formed in the early 1980s. REM is the name of an exchange-traded fund that began trading in 2007. The iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF, or REM, has quietly amassed more than $1 billion in assets since 2010 as yield-thirsty investors have been lured in by the fund's juicy 14 percent yield. For perspective, that’s more than three times the yield of the mega-popular $26 billion Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ).
Gross Sees Global Economy Dangerously Close to Deflation. Bill Gross, money manager at Janus Capital Group Inc., said the global economy is “dangerously close to deflationary growth.” Once there is a “whiff of deflation, things tend to reverse and go badly,” Gross said Friday in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene. Gross pointed to how the CRB Commodity Index isn’t just at a cyclical low, but lower than in 2008 when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt.
Why Marco Rubio May Have Won the First Republican Debate. It was Donald Trump's show, but the Florida senator made the case that only he can beat Hillary Clinton.

Zero Hedge:

Business Insider:

One of the most powerful Democrats is being torched by liberals after coming out against Obama's Iran deal.

Telegraph:

Germany protests against 'half-finished' Greek bail-out deal. Berlin's finance ministry pushes for more time as Athens says it is "nearly ready" and could vote on a deal within two weeks.

RIA:

Donetsk Rebels Warn on Possible Surge in Ukraine Violence. Donetsk rebels say violence may worsen as Ukraine blocks agreement to pull back weapons, citing rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko. Ukraine said 7 soldiers wounded as fighting resumes near Luhansk.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:03 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -1.31%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Coal -5.44% 2) Biotech -2.42% 3) Alt Energy -1.73%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ICON, LXU, UVV, UBNT, SFM, SUNE, TPC, NDLS, OPHT, FPRX, BCRX, SWIR, WWAV, AMH, RIGP, IMH, BLUE, CORI, ALNY, NEOT, WAIR, BIIB, TA, HRC, CCOI, CCE, AMH, CSGS, TDC, PAGP, BDC, XPO, IL, BRS, ONCE, EOG, HRTG, CHUY, ECHO, SCTY, SEMG, ZLTQ, MMS, OUT, ENTA, BID, OLED, SFM, XON, RLYP, TSRO, AAC, OPHT, FPRX, ACAD and FLDM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: