Saturday, August 15, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • German Lawmakers to Hold Greek Vote on Wednesday. German lawmakers will vote Wednesday on a new aid package for Greece, which needs approval to meet a debt payment deadline a day later. The vote in the Bundestag will follow euro-area finance ministers’ decision Friday to endorse the 86 billion-euro ($96 billion) loan program. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose coalition has a parliament majority, moved a planned visit to Milan up a day to Monday to allow time to attend caucus meetings the night before to argue against opponents in her own parliamentary group. The new Greek program will see funds disbursed over three years as the government enacts economic reforms, though Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will get a portion immediately to cover looming bills. One of those, a 3.2 billion-euro payment to the European Central Bank, is due Thursday.
  • Death Toll in Tianjin Blasts Rises to 85 as Area Evacuated. The death toll from Wednesday’s blasts at China’s northeastern port city of Tianjin has risen to 85 people, as local media reported that authorities evacuated a three-kilometer zone around the site on contamination fears. China has sent a team of nuclear and biochemical emergency military workers to the area to search for survivors, the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement Saturday. People were evacuated from the site amid chemical contamination fears, the Beijing News reported, citing unidentified people at local government agencies including traffic control and environmental protection.
  • Nomura Says September Rate Rise Would Be Most Dovish in History. Traders say it’s a coin toss whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates from near zero next month. They’re more sure policy makers won’t be in any hurry once they get started. Futures prices show 48 percent odds the Fed hikes in September, even as plunging commodity prices drag down inflation expectations and China’s currency devaluation signals a slowdown in global growth. An imminent Fed rate rise amid broader uncertainty shifts scrutiny to the pace of subsequent increases. Officials have repeatedly lowered their own projections, known as the dot plot, for how quickly and how high rates will go.   
  • Biden, Amid Presidential Run Speculation, Consoles Chattanooga. Vice President Joe Biden, the subject of rising media speculation about whether he’ll run for the White House, gave a speech on Saturday that frequently brought him close to tears, recalling the five victims of shootings at military installations in Tennessee. Biden, who has been on vacation in South Carolina, flew to Chattanooga to deliver the eulogy for the victims of the July 16 shootings carried out by a local man motivated by Islamic extremism.
  • Oman’s Daily Oil Output Tops 1 Million Barrels for First Time. Oman, the biggest oil producer in the Middle East outside OPEC, said its crude and condensate production in July exceeded 1 million barrels a day for the first time. “In July 2015 the Sultanate broke a new record,” the Oil and Gas Ministry said in a monthly report published on its website. Production rose 0.5 percent from June because of efficiency achieved through maintenance work. Daily crude output was 894,000 barrels and condensate -- a light oil extracted from gas -- accounted for 107,000 barrels, it said.
  • Glencore’s $31 Billion Debt Weighs on Trader Amid Commodity Rout. Glencore Plc, the world’s largest listed commodity supplier, may take further steps to alleviate the strain of a $31 billion debt pile and protect its credit rating amid a rout in prices. After trimming this year’s spending plan as much as $800 million and selling $290 million of mines, the company may announce additional measures to shore up its balance sheet alongside earnings on Aug. 19, according to Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Plc. The company needs to cut net debt by almost half to $16 billion by the end of next year to retain its credit rating, which may lead to the sacrifice of 2016 dividends, said JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.
  • Goldman Closes an Era in Commodities With Coal Mine Disposal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. closed a nearly 35-year era of investments in commodity assets such as power plants and refineries with the sale of a Colombian coal mine. The disposal is the latest sign of how Wall Street banks are responding to pressure from U.S. regulators and disappointing returns as raw materials prices plunged. Goldman Sachs has invested in physical commodity assets since 1981, when it bought what was then a small trading house called J. Aron. Over the years, the company has owned oil refineries in Rotterdam, power plants in Virginia and Colorado, and warehouses to store aluminum and copper around the world.

Wall Street Journal:
  • U.S. Sees Possible Pattern in ISIS Chemical Attacks. Mustard agent believed used against Kurdish forces in Syria two weeks ago, before Iraq. U.S. intelligence agencies have evidence indicating Islamic State used mustard agent against Kurdish forces for the first time at least two weeks ago in fighting in Syria, a tactic that the group may have repeated in two subsequent attacks in Iraq, U.S. officials said Friday. The developments are fueling concerns that Islamic State... 
  • Clinton Defies the Law and Common Sense. The question of whether Hillary Clinton’s emails were marked top secret isn’t legally relevant. Any cabinet member should know that. Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server to conduct public business while serving as secretary of state, followed by the deletion of information on that server and the transfer to her lawyer of a thumb drive containing heretofore unexplored data, engages several issues of criminal law—but the overriding issue is one of plain common sense.
Zero Hedge:
NY Times:
  • AT&T(T) Helped N.S.A. Spy on an Array of Internet Traffic. The National Security Agency’s ability to spy on vast quantities of Internet traffic passing through the United States has relied on its extraordinary, decades-long partnership with a single company: the telecom giant AT&T.
Reuters:
  • Germany's Schaeuble says scope for Greek debt relief limited. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with Deutsche Welle published on Saturday that there was some room to extend maturities on Greek debt but that this room was limited. "Outright debt forgiveness doesn't work at all under European law," Schaeuble said. "But we do have a certain amount of room to extend maturities further. This room is not very big."
Telegraph: 
Bild:
  • German Economist Sinn Says Greek Accord Lacks Authenticity. Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute, says 3rd bailout for Greece is an "abstruse mix of diverse detail and squishy formulations," citing an interview. According contains few spending cuts and a lot of hope the Greek govt will be able to collect taxes in the future even though it didn't succeed in the past. The program "misses the truth" and the bailout means taxpayers will pour more resources into a "bottomless pit".

Friday, August 14, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,091.41 +.69%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,091.41 +.69%
  • DJIA 17,478.80 +.62%
  • NASDAQ 5,048.73 +.12%
  • Russell 2000 1,211.51 +.37%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 32.0 +.72%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 130.87 -.88% 
  • Wilshire 5000 21,808.50 +.68%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,015.64 +.56%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,009.95 +.85%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 513.93 unch.
  • Solactive US Cyclical 128.17 +.47%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,074.44 +.73%
  • Transports 8,318.82 +.85%
  • Utilities 604.14 +2.33%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 115.38 -3.24%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.57 -2.44%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,196.41 -.67%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,004.32 -.49%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 231,601 -.18%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -393 +277
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.15 +298.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 247,093 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,736,523 n/a
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -13.01%
  • OEX Put/Call .84 +68.12%
  • ISE Sentiment 99.0 +55.36%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -19.44%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.07 -1.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.36 +1.26%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.1 -2.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.75 +14.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,981.29 +1.41%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.675 Trillion +.2%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$7.303 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 30.5 +25.2%
  • AAII % Bears 36.2 +14.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 197.97 -.18%
  • Crude Oil 42.31 -3.29%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 168.81 +3.7%
  • Natural Gas 2.80 +.57%
  • Heating Oil 155.09 +.68%
  • Gold 1,112.40 +1.90%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.44 unch.
  • Copper 234.75 +1.05%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 231.47 USD/Ton -2.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 56.74 USD/Ton +.6%
  • Lumber 252.70 -2.50%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,041.86 -1.46%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .2% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0365 -5.93%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.19 +.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.8 -6.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.3 -2.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/17
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 3.68 -2.13%
  • US Dollar Index 96.55 -1.01%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.29 +1.4%
  • Yield Curve 147.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.20% +3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.451 Trillion +.05%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 unch.
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 228.0 -7.4%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.37 -.49%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 69.97 +7.23%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 307.65 +1.34%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.45 +1.05%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 684.92 -1.88%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 374.16 +2.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.38 -1.33%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% -3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.0 -5.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 76.8 +1.77%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,902.0 +3.34%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.40 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 343.30 +2.04%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 103.0 +7.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.117 Trillion +2.91%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,058.80 -.80%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 266,250 -2,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.94% +3 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 397.50 +.08%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.7 +.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.90% +60.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.65/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,046.0 -12.83%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 819.62 +2.59%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 274,424 +1.84%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +8.4%
  • Homebuilders +5.1%
  • Telecom +4.0%
  • Energy +3.0%
  • Utilities +2.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Biotech -1.1% 
  • Papers -1.3%
  • Airlines -1.4%
  • Education -1.7%
  • Gaming -5.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)
  • W, YDLE, SYA, STMP, ICUI, CVT, POST, PCP, HCKT, NVAX, TWOU, NVDA, NUS, OME, BGG, AAP, AEL, CREE, SYY and AGX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (42)
  • STCK, DF, RRGB, BID, MMS, RAX, WK, KSS, HALO, NHI, INCR, PRAA, DTSI, APEI, AHP, OLED, CTRE, TUBE, NGHC, SUNE, TPC, FRPT, EVDY, UVV, SHAK, BLUE, LJPC, ZBRA, IMDZ, BCRX, EGRX, ENV, RENT, XON, RLYP, CLDX, LXU, ASCMA, ICON, WRLD, FLDM and KPTI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Technical Buying, Financial/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.33 -1.19%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.38 -.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.75 -1.47%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.97 -1.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +19.48%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +17.89%
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 -9.42% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.83 +.25%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,901.0 -.21%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.41 +.78%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.27 -2.17%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.07 +2.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 343.18 +1.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.38 -.44%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 23.0 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 146.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.74/Metric Tonne -.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.8 -3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.3 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 unch.
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 3.68 -.32
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -124 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.45%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -1.72% 2) Biotech -1.31% 3) Semis -1.08%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • LOCO, AZPN, ARMH, AAVL, WLH, KING, BAP, PRTY, KPTI, MRKT, OMER, ONCE, W, ASML, AMAT, WLDN, CPA, PCTY, CPHD, AFMD, EGRX, CSTE, KITE, LXFT, ALDW, TWOU, SUNE, OVAS and OCUL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DXJ 2) EWJ 3) STX 4) AMAT 5) JCP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KSS 2) TDW 3) PBR 4) LOCO 5) VALE
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.24%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +.98% 2) Tobacco +.78% 3) Banks +.61%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KMPH, WX, DAR, JWN, AQXP, FGEN, DAR and POST
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) POST 2) JWN 3) LOCO 4) BKD 5) LOW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JWN 2) DD 3) CF 4) CYBR 5) M
Charts: