Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Oil Bounce, Healthcare/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.32 +1.68%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.95 +.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.60 +3.70%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +11.39%

• Total Put/Call .83 -24.55%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +1.19 +29.88% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.43 -.80%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,048.0 +.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.75 -2.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.24 -1.69%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.58 -1.01%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 327.82 -.37%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.51 +.22%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 32.25 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.39 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 142.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.74/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.80 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.70 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -2.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.89 -.68

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Nestle, Burberry Show How Era of Easy Growth in China Is Over. (video) Whether they sell tea or trenchcoats, consumer-goods companies can no longer count on easy business in China, where success now requires a more nimble approach. Sluggish Chinese sales hurt Nestle SA, Hugo Boss AG and Burberry Group Plc, which all reported disappointing quarterly revenue this week. With China set to disclose its slowest economic growth since 2009 next week, European companies are searching for demand via new avenues. Nestle and France’s Danone now cater to Chinese mothers who forgo locally produced baby formula and order it from abroad via Internet sites. Chinese luxury aficionados are traveling to Japan to buy TAG Heuer timepieces and Louis Vuitton handbags at better exchange rates. German retailer Metro AG has struck a deal with a local partner, picking Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to let Chinese consumers snap up German brands of coffee and cookies over the Web. Consumer companies “need to be flexible to meet where the market is going,” said James Roy, associate principal at China Market Research Group. “The era of everybody buying the same big-name, signature items is going away.”
• Will China See Its 'Minsky Moment?' (video)
• China Liquidity Trap Deters Funds as Debt Trade Fraction of U.S. China’s efforts to open its $5.9 trillion onshore bond market are being hampered by secondary trading that’s less than a quarter of levels seen in the U.S., making global funds wary of being trapped in riskier bonds. While the market is the world’s third-largest, annual trading as a ratio of total outstanding debt is 1.1, compared with 4.7 in the U.S., Bloomberg calculations based on official data show. Overseas investors currently hold just 2 percent of onshore notes, with 82 percent of their money limited to sovereign and policy bank securities, according to China Central Depository & Clearing Co. Overseas investors are focusing mainly on issuers that are likely to be bailed out in the event of a crisis, and show little confidence in the ability of domestic rating companies to warn them of defaults ahead of time. Baoding Tianwei Group Co., the first state-owned company to renege on a domestic bond in April, was rated investment grade by China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. less than five months before the failure. The number of upgrades handed out by three of the largest rankers was four times that of downgrades this year, even as the economy grows at the slowest pace since 1990.  
• PBOC Data Suggest Capital Outflows Stayed Strong in September. Chinese financial institutions including the central bank sold a record amount of foreign exchange in September, a sign capital outflows were more severe last month than was previously thought. The offshore yuan fell to a two-week low. A gauge of their foreign-currency assets declined by the equivalent of 761.3 billion yuan ($120 billion), exceeding an August drop of 723.8 billion yuan, People’s Bank of China data showed Friday. China devalued its currency on Aug. 11 and concerns about further depreciation and slowing economic growth, coupled with the prospect of a U.S. interest-rate increase, are spurring outflows of funds.
• Chinese Firms Seen Dodging Defaults in Coming Days in Turnaround. A Chinese sausage maker is set to avoid a default in a turnaround, and the authorities were said to have stepped in to help a state-owned steel trader facing a bond deadline next week. The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a meeting with investors in government-controlled Sinosteel Co.’s 2 billion yuan ($315 million) of 2017 securities who have an option to sell them back on Oct. 20., people familiar with the matter said. The NDRC will ask them not to do so, according to one of the people. Parent Sinosteel Corp. sent a letter to noteholders pleading with them to not sell the bonds back as Sinosteel would be unable to repay, the people said. “Investors may not be able to see the real credit risks in the bond market because of the aversions of defaults,” said Ji Weijie, a bond analyst at China Securities Co. in Beijing. “The NDRC’s intervention means Sinosteel may really avoid such a default. It’s reasonable for regulators to step in because the fall of a state-owned company would have an impact on employment."
• Nestle Reduces Sales Outlook Amid Weakness in Chinese Market. Nestle SA said it will fall short of its long-term growth target for a third consecutive year amid weakness in China, highlighting the volatile conditions in emerging markets that continue to weigh on European consumer-product companies and retailers alike. Sales will probably rise about 4.5 percent on an organic basis in 2015, the Vevey, Switzerland-based maker of Nespresso coffee said Friday, abandoning a previous forecast of about 5 percent. Nine-month revenue advanced 4.2 percent, missing analysts’ estimates, as a recall of Maggi noodles also eroded sales in Asia. The stock made its steepest intraday decline in almost two months.  
• Emerging Nations Trimming $5 Trillion Debt Stokes Currency Risk. Borrowers in emerging markets have started to address a $5 trillion mountain of dollar-denominated bonds and loans, reducing their obligations for the first time in seven years in a move that threatens to cut short a budding rally in currencies from Brazil to Malaysia. Companies in developing nations paid back $38 billion of dollar debt last quarter, $3 billion more than they borrowed in the period and marking the first reduction in net issuance since 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Demand for greenbacks among borrowers needing the currency to repay debt is contributing to the largest capital outflows in almost three decades. The borrowing binge, which took off in the wake of the global financial crisis as interest rates tumbled, may now be reversing as economic growth slows, commodity prices fall and lenders demand higher yields. While developing-nation currencies are rebounding from their record lows, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the depreciation trend to resume as dollar debt repayments accelerate. “This is a massive event,” said Stephen Jen, the co-founder of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former economist at the International Monetary Fund whose bearish call on emerging markets since 2012 has proven prescient. “They want to pay down their dollar loans. We are early in the game, there’s pretty intense pressure on emerging markets.” 
• Lira, Ruble Traders Get Reminder of How Fast Sentiment Can Sour. In the space of a few minutes, investors in the Turkish lira and Russian ruble got a reminder about how quickly bullish sentiment can sour. As Turkey’s military said it shot down an unidentified aircraft on the Syrian border on Friday, the lira slid to a session low of 2.9106 per dollar, down 1.1 percent. Traders worried it may have been a Russian jet helped send the ruble down as much as 1.2 percent.
• European Stocks Advance for Second Day, Erasing Weekly Decline. Positive sentiment in Europe’s equity market dominated for a second day on confidence that central-bank stimulus will continue to support the global economy. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent at the close of trading in London and rallied as much as 1 percent. Health-care, insurer and bank shares climbed the most. The gauge ended the week up 0.1 percent.
• Moody's Sounds Alarm on Russian Fiscal Woes Draining Buffers. The pillar of Russian creditworthiness is looking more rickety by the day to Moody’s Investors Service. “What once has been the country’s strongest asset, which was the government’s very strong financial position, is now under significant pressure,” Kristin Lindow, senior vice president at the credit-ratings company, said Wednesday in an interview in Moscow. “It doesn’t have a lot of debt, but it also is actively depleting its saving buffers, with very littleprospect in the medium term of rebuilding them.”
• Unnerved Investors Pull Shutters as Capital-Market Cracks Spread. Investors around the world are running away from almost anything smacking of risk in capital markets. Sales in the U.S. junk-bond market have stalled, Chinese lenders are bracing for a new bout of defaults, and initial public offerings -- from First Data Corp. to Albertsons Cos. -- have been marred by investors uneasy about opening up their wallets. Blaming adverse conditions, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the world’s biggest junk-rated borrower, canceled plans for its first local-currency bond sale in 15 years. The cautiousness among investors stems from worries over global growth, spurred by a slowdown in China’s economy. 
• Brazil Stocks Lead Weekly Losses as Goldman Sachs Sees Headwinds. Brazil’s stocks led world losses this week, missing out on a rally in emerging markets, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted Latin America’s largest economy will face more challenges. The shares swung between gains and losses on Friday after the New York-based bank said Brazil will continue to face strong headwinds from high borrowing costs, political turmoil and a drop in consumer and corporate confidence. The economy contracted more than forecast in August as policy makers keep interest rates at a nine-year high to combat above-target inflation. The benchmark equity gauge has plunged 19 percent from this year’s peak in May as President Dilma Rousseff struggles to revive an economy poised for the longest recession since the 1930s amid a widening corruption scandal.
• Hillary Clinton Is Winning the Race for Wall Street’s White House Cash. Hillary Clinton has said she’d prefer to find other ways to regulate the banks besides breaking them up. Wall Street donors are showing their appreciation. The Democrat’s campaign is collecting more cash from employees of the six biggest U.S. banks than any other presidential candidate, adding more than $155,000 last quarter to more than $300,000 from earlier this year. She beat Republican rival Jeb Bush, who got at least $390,000 from the bankers over the last two quarters, even though he worked among them last decade. Clinton offers at least one major reason for Wall Street to get behind her, proposing tweaks to the financial system while other Democrats call for breaking up the biggest firms.

Wall Street Journal:

• Murky Data Add to China’s Housing Headache. Glut in China’s property market is worse than official data show, creating a drag on economic growth. Lacking only façade work, wiring and paint, the red-brick duplexes lining a remote street in the Chinese port city of Qingdao could, if required, hit the market in a matter of days. That presents a problem for China and the world.

Zero Hedge:

• They're Baaaaack.... It took nearly a decade, but "owning" a house for zero money down has finally come back.
• Obama Withdraws Aircraft Carrier Support From Middle East Just As Russia Unveils Its Syrian Airbase.
• Did Obama Telegraph A "Get Out Of Jail Free" Card For Hillary On National Television?
• Gold ETF Holdings Surge Most In 9 Months. (graph)
• Goldman Sachs Fires Analysts For Cheating On "Compliance" Tests.
• Yellen's "Favorite" Labor Indicator Tumbles: Job Openings Drop Most Since 2009. (graph)
• Did Obama Just Set Off A Global Nuclear Arms Race By Signing The Iran Deal? 
• As Worldwide Sales Collapse, VW's Dieselgate Scandal Could Cost Up To $87 Billion In Total.
• Rate-Hike Looms As The Fed's Much-Watched Consumer Confidence Bounces. (graph)
• Options Market "Crash" Indicator Hits Peak Panic, Surpasses Record Highs. (graph)
• Industrial Production For Oil And Gas Well Drilling Drops To Lowest This Century. (graph)
• QE "Barbell" Returns: Biggest Junk Bonds Inflow In 8 Months; Most Gold Buying In 7 Weeks. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Mitt Romney just ripped Donald Trump's 'hurtful' comments and predicted they'll cast a 'shadow' over the race.

NY Times:

• 14 Years After U.S. Invasion, the Taliban Are Back in Control of Large Parts of Afghanistan. The Taliban have a significant footprint in Afghanistan, according to Bill Roggio, the editor of The Long War Journal, an online publication that is tracking Taliban control. Mr. Roggio has confirmed that about one-fifth of the country is controlled or contested by the Taliban, but based on his understanding of how the Taliban operate, he said, “they probably either control or heavily influence about a half of the country.”

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.63%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -7.58% 2) Oil Service -3.71% 3) Alt Energy -2.25%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CEMP, ZFGN, PWR, MYCC, SYF, SAVE, CRZO, KSU, GWW, HON, WYNN, VAC, IMPR, STX, OLED, BCOR, MYRG, TKR, KMPH, HASI, AGIO, VMI, PENN, IR and SLB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ADSK 2) ESRX 3) V 4) EFA 5) XLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BHI 2) STX 3) CSX 4) HON 5) SHLD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.12%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +1.23% 2) Restaurants +.88% 3) Drugs +.78%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• YOKU, WB, BABY, MAT, FPRX, SINA, TWTR, HSC and CSII

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) PNK 3) SYF 4) RAD 5) MAT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MAT 2) BX 3) TOWR 4) VRX 5) AMZN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 48.9% of Issues Advancing, 48.0% Declining
• 46 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 33.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.9
• Vix 16.1
• Total Put/Call 1.11
• TRIN/Arms 1.08

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:   

• China’s State Sector: Bigger Than Ever. The giant corporations are deemed essential to the party. The poor showing of the SOEs comes as President Xi Jinping is launching his long-awaited state-sector reform. Don’t expect mass shuttering or privatization of China’s more than 100,000 government companies, many of them money losers. Instead, policymakers aim to make “stronger and better” state champions, according to a five-year plan released on Sept. 13 by the State Council and the Communist Party’s Central Committee. 

• Chinese Cyber Spies Fish for Enemies in South China Sea Dispute. In the midst of a weeklong hearing on a South China Sea territorial dispute, the website of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague went offline. The incident happened in July as the Philippines challenged China’s claim to more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, an assertion that Manila says encroaches on its exclusive economic zone. Based on an analysis of the software and infrastructure used, the site was infected with malware by someone in China, according to ThreatConnect Inc., a U.S. security company. China didn’t take part in the Hague hearing.

• RBA Sees Signs Home Market Slowing, Oversupply in Some Areas. Australia’s over-heated housing market could be starting to slow while rapid home construction in some areas is creating an oversupply, the central bank said in its semiannual assessment of risks to the country’s financial system. “There have been tentative signs of some slowing in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said Friday in its financial stability review. “While the housing market remains a long way from oversupply nationwide, some geographic areas appear to be reaching that point, particularly the inner-city areas of Melbourne and Brisbane.” 

• Asian Stocks Track U.S. Gains as Tech, Finance Shares Advance. Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, with the regional benchmark index heading for a third straight weekly advance, as technology and financial companies led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 134.53 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo.

• Rio Iron Ore Output Jumps 12% as Ports, Mines Expanded. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, reported third-quarter iron ore production rose 12 percent after completing key elements of its infrastructure expansion in Western Australia and boosting mine capacity. Total output expanded to 86.1 million metric tons in the three months to Sept. 30, London-based Rio said Friday in a statement. That compared with 76.8 million tons a year earlier and the 87 million ton median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israeli Police Begin to Seal Palestinian Areas in East Jerusalem. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to restrict movement of potential attackers. The Palestinian neighborhood of Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem was surrounded by border police on Thursday, as Israel put into place some of the tightest security measures in years.

• Valeant(VRX) Probe Reprises Federal Focus on Drug Pricing. Drug pricing, a key issue in the federal investigation of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., has been a frequent focus of federal prosecutions and whistleblower lawsuits in recent years. Pharmaceutical companies have paid more than $3 billion in fines to resolve pricing cases over the past decade, according to Patrick Burns, co-director of Taxpayers Against Fraud, a group that promotes whistleblowing.

• U.S. Pursues Several Paths in Volkswagen Probe. Investigators expand review, evaluating pollution rules, official statements and consumer claims. The U.S. attorney’s office in Detroit and the Justice Department’s Fraud Section joined a sweeping federal probe of Volkswagen AG over emissions-test cheating, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling the government’s intent to cast a broad net and explore numerous paths to a possible criminal case.

• Presidential Candidates Burn Through Cash Quickly, FEC Filings Show. Two Republicans, Sen. Rand Paul and Gov. Chris Christie, are getting low on funds.
  The 2016 presidential candidates in both parties are burning through their cash about 25% faster than in prior elections, despite the expanded role of super PACs that have collectively raised hundreds of millions of dollars to back their campaigns, new disclosures show.

• No Wonder Growth Has Been So Anemic. President Obama thinks more union membership will help the middle class. No, jobs are what’s needed. In his remarks at a White House event last week called the Summit on Worker Voice, President Obama said that people who work hard “should be able to get ahead” but went on to acknowledge that workers are “seeing their wages and their incomes flatlining.” The reason, according to Mr. Obama, is dwindling union membership. “Union membership today is as low as it’s been in about 80 years, since the ’30s,” he said. “And I...

Fox News: 

• Source: FBI probe of Clinton email focused on ‘gross negligence’ provision. (video) Three months after Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email address and server while secretary of state was referred to the FBI, an intelligence source familiar with the investigation tells Fox News that the team is now focused on whether there were violations of an Espionage Act subsection pertaining to "gross negligence" in the safekeeping of national defense information.

Barron's:

• Wynn Resorts(WYNN): Q3 Miss, Stephen Wynn Railed Against Macau On Gaming Tables. Revenue for the third quarter fell 27.3% from a year ago to $996.3 million, 2.9% shy of $1.03 billion expected by the street. Adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 39% year-on-year to $279.9 million, below the street estimate of $305 million.

CNBC:

• Retail wreck is just getting started. How to play it: Trader. (video)

• Hedge funds having worst year since 2011. (video) A miserable September saw hedge funds lose 1.44 percent, thanks to a 2.2 percent decline in equity-based strategies and a 2.5 percent drop in North America strategy, according to numbers Preqin released Thursday.

• Bad news for some Medicare beneficiaries. (video) The year 2016 will send shockwaves to some Medicare beneficiaries — roughly 7 million Americans. They're going to be paying a lot more for their monthly Medicare Part B premium.

Zero Hedge: 

• EM FX Party's Over: Dollar Rallies In Early Asia Trading As China's Bond Bubble Gathers Pace. (graph)

• Sanders And His Followers Are Not Outliers.

• Tomorrow Is OpEx: What Happens Next? (graph)

• The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India's Exports/Imports Plunge By 25%. (graph)

• Over 5 Million Non-Existent Jobs: How $1.3 Trillion In Student Debt Broke The "Birth/Death Adjustment" Model.

• BlackRock(BLK) Warns Of "Land Mines"As Benefits Of Lower Yields For Corporate Issuers Fades.

• Russia And Iran Moving To Corner The Mideast Oil Supply.

• Visualizing The Demise Of The Once Mighty Euro.

• Schlumberger(SLB): This Is "The Most Severe Downturn For Decades", "The Recovery Now Appears To Be Delayed". 

• China Says Military Will "Stand Up And Use Force" If US Sends Warships To Islands.

• Dismal Data & FUBAR Fed Spark Stock-Buying-Panic; Banks, Biotechs & Black Gold Bounce. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• STEVE WYNN: 'In my 45 years of experience, I've never seen anything like this before'. "In my 45 years of experience, I've never seen anything like this before," said Wynn Entertainment CEO Steve Wynn. Wynn's "this" is Macau. And what he's seeing is what happens when the Chinese government turns its back on your business.

• The lonely green bar on this chart says it all. (graph)

Reuters:

• Exclusive: Canada railroads cut crude freight rates to lure shipments. Canadian rail companies are slashing rates for shipping crude in their first serious effort to revive an industry rocked by the rout in global oil prices, according to shippers and terminal operators who are seeing discounts of as much as 25 percent. 

• Federal Reserve policymakers downplay divisions on U.S. rate hike. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are not as divided as it may appear and are generally operating under the same framework for determining when to raise interest rates, one Fed official said on Thursday, while another said the differences of opinion reflect the countervailing economic data.
  "At the end of the day people are exaggerating" the divisions, Dudley said in response to a question after a panel presentation in Washington on Thursday. "We are all pretty much on the same page."

• Stock, bond funds attract $5.5 bln over weekly period -Lipper. 

• Yum Brands(YUM) cuts 2015 adjusted profit forecast. Yum Brands Inc on Thursday cut its 2015 adjusted profit forecast, saying it expects a strong dollar to further eat into profit. The company said it now expects full-year adjusted profit to be between flat with a year ago and a low-single-digit percentage gain. Earlier this month, the company had said it expected 2015 earnings per share growth to be well below its target of at least 10 percent.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.50 -2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.25 -5.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (CMA)/.69

• (GE)/.26

• (HON)/1.55

• (KSU)/1.22

• (PGR)/.48

• (STI)/.84

• (GWW)/3.06 

Economic Releases

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for September is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in August.

• Capacity Utilization MoM for September is estimated to fall to 77.3% versus 77.6% in August.

• Manufacturing Production for September is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.5% decline in August.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for August are estimated to fall to 5580 versus 5753 in July. 

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for October is estimated to rise to 89.0 versus 87.2 in September.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for August.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report and (SAFM) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.