Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • Hong Kong Property Market in `Free Fall': Hayman's Bass. Kyle Bass, the hedge-fund manager who’s wagering on a slowdown in China’s economy, said Hong Kong’s property market is in “free fall” and the credit expansion in Southeast Asian emerging markets will unravel. “Hong Kong’s in a worse position than it was in prior to the ’97 crisis today,” Bass said at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday. He said credit in Asian emerging markets has grown “recklessly,” citing Malaysia and Thailand. Hong Kong property prices have declined and sales are hovering near a 25-year low as the city grapples with the repercussions of a slowing Chinese economy. Home prices have dropped about 13 percent from a peak in September, according to data compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
  • Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge. There’s no shortage of demand in the $100 trillion market for global debt, as investors crowd into corporate and long-term sovereign obligations to steer clear of negative yields. Yield-hungry bidders are snapping up government bonds. Auctions of long-term debt by the U.S., Spain and Portugal all drew strong demand Wednesday, with the Treasury sale seeing unprecedented appetite from one class of investors. Buyers are also clamoring for company bonds, in a week that may be the busiest this year for corporate borrowing in the U.S. and Europe.
  • Chinese Stocks Slump to Two-Month Low as Industrial Shares Sink. Chinese stocks fell to their lowest levels in more than two months, led by industrial and consumer companies, as investors awaited the release of economic data. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.7 percent. A gauge of industrial shares slid the most among company groups, taking its loss this year to 26 percent. Data on new loans and money supply may be released as early as today, while reports on industrial production and retail sales are also due this week. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index headed for its lowest close since March 2.
  • Asian Stocks Head for First Decline in Three Days on Earnings. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first decline in three days, following losses in U.S. shares amid growing pessimism over corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent to 127.16 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.9 percent, with Toyota Motor Corp. slumping 3.7 percent after forecasting its first annual profit drop in five years due to a stronger yen. With pessimism over the global outlook and concern over central banks’ firepower already keeping investors on tenterhooks, the mixed corporate earnings season has provided another dampener for equity markets, which lost more than $1 trillion in value last week.
  • Why the High-Yield Rally May Be a Little Overdone. (video)
  • Romney Warns of Possible ‘Bombshell’ in Trump’s Hidden Taxes. “It is disqualifying for a modern-day presidential nominee to refuse to release tax returns to the voters, especially one who has not been subject to public scrutiny in either military or public service,” Mitt Romney writes in post to verified Facebook page.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Comey rebuffs Clinton claim FBI only conducting ‘security inquiry’ on emails. (video) Hillary Clinton for months has downplayed the FBI investigation into her private email server and practices as a mere “security inquiry.” But when asked Wednesday by Fox News about Clinton's characterization of the bureau's probe, FBI Director James Comey said he doesn’t know what "security inquiry" means -- adding, “We’re conducting an investigation. … That’s what we do.”
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
Financial Times:
Telegraph:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.75 +.75 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 53.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.17 -.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (KSS)/.37
  • (PRTY)/.03
  • (RL)/.83
  • (DDS)/2.57
  • (JWN)/.45
  • (NVDA)/.41
  • (SHAK)/.05
  • (SYMC)/.22
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 270K versus 274K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2120K versus 2121K prior.     
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's George speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, BoE rate decision, BoE inflation report, $15B 30Y T-Bond auction, Bloomberg May US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (DOW) annual meeting, (RIG) annual meeting, (NSC) annual meeting, (VLO) annual meeting and the (FLEX) analyst meting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower int Final Hour on Gobal Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Yen Strength, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.51 +6.68%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.48 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.96 -1.08%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.86 +3.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +8.0%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -13.76%
  • NYSE Arms .87 +30.13
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 +1.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 966.0 -4.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.03 -2.20%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.69 -2.0%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.12 +.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 289.78 +.24%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.68 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.21 +.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 101.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.57/Metric Tonne +.56%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.60 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.7 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.40 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62% -1.0 basis point
  • 15.5% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 30.7% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my retail/tech/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       
  • Italy's Padoan `Very Worried' Partners Could Copy Brexit. Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said he was “very worried” that a vote for Britain to leave the European Union could inspire other members of the bloc to abandon it too, amid a surge of populist anti-Europe movements. “I am very worried about Brexit, not only for the immediate damage that can come to the U.K. economy and the European economy, but also from the fact that this could be taken as an example of leaving Europe by other countries,” Padoan said on Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua in London. “Let’s not forget we are witnessing a widespread discontent about European values and strategies, so Brexit could lead the way to more painful disentanglement of Europe,” Padoan said.
  • David Goldman: China Debt Faces 'Nasty Reorganization'. (video)
  • Chile Peso Falls Most in Emerging Markets as Foreigners Go Short.
  • European Stocks Retreat, Stoxx 600 Loses 0.5%. (video) The Chilean peso weakened the most among emerging-market currencies as international investors offload their positions on the currency following weak data from China. Foreign investors have increased short positions in the Chilean peso forwards market by $1.2 billion in the past week while local investors, mostly pension funds hedging their currency exposure, have refrained from adding to their long position in the currency. China on Monday reported that imports unexpectedly fell 11 percent in April from a year earlier, undermining the outlook for the price of copper, Chile’s principal export.
  • Macy's(M) Dimmer Outlook Sends Retail, Apparel Stocks Tumbling. (video) A glum outlook from Macy’s Inc. renewed concerns about the broader retail industry, contributing to a stock rout for consumer companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. and Ross Stores Inc. on Wednesday. Macy’s cut its profit forecast for this year and posted first-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ estimates -- a sign that slow foot traffic at shopping malls continues to take a toll on the largest U.S. department-store company. Shares of Macy’s plunged as much as 14 percent to $31.91 in New York, their worst intraday decline in six months. And it wasn’t alone. Wal-Mart, the largest U.S. retailer, slid as much as 4.6 percent to $65.61. Target Corp. fell as much as 5 percent to $76.01, its biggest intraday drop since November.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -3.6% 2) REITs -1.8% 3) Restaurants -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • FOSL, M, HMHC, HPP, YY, MTSC, KORS, COKE, WEN, LDRH, DIS, FNGN, MOMO, ALRM, BW, SRCLP, VNET, ZLTQ, RL, SPG, AGM, JACK, FOGO, PVH, JWN, WPG, PLKI, LPI, CBL, GGP, FOR, ROST, SJI, TGT, TIF, VFC, KSS, ZLTQ, HMHC and GIII
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) M 2) TIF 3) DKS 4) RL 5) DIS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ODP 2) FOSL 3) M 4) EPRS 5) GPS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Oil Service +1.1% 3) Alt Energy +1.0% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • EA, CSIQ, ALB, BUFF, SCTY, PBYI, CPXX and FIVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) TMUS 2) KSS 3) EMC 4) SEAS 5) LC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) RYI 2) JAZZ 3) SODA 4) NEM 5) ARIA
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: