Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Asian Junk's House of Cards. 
• Goldman Says Dollar Surge Far From Over as Traders Misprice Fed. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is holding fast to its bullish-dollar call, undeterred by plunging expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. A gauge of the U.S. currency held near the strongest closing level since August reached Tuesday as higher U.S. yields bolstered the greenback’s allure versus major peers even as futures showed reduced odds of a Fed rate hike next week. The dollar’s advance was supported by waning demand for currencies of natural-resource-exporting nations, which fell amid a rout in commodities prices and as investors’ appetite for riskier assets diminished.
• Asian Stocks Extend Global Slide as Volatility Measures Soar. Asian stocks extended a global slump and volatility soared after a report showed fund managers are hoarding more money in cash amid uncertainty over the trajectory of central bank stimulus globally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6 percent to 136.36 as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure is on course for a fifth day of declines after valuations this month climbed to the highest in more than a year and investors adjusted portfolios and forecasts to reflect prospects of less monetary stimulus globally. In Tokyo, the Topix index fell 0.7 percent after the Nikkei newspaper said the Bank of Japan is considering delving deeper into negative interest rates, a controversial move that hurt bank shares earlier this year.
• Buffett Loses $1.4 Billion as Wells Fargo Tumbles on Scandal. Warren Buffett had $1.4 billion wiped from his fortune Tuesday after Wells Fargo & Co. fell 3.3 percent as the fallout continued from revelations that bank employees had opened more than 2 million accounts without clients’ approval. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the lender’s biggest shareholder, fell 2 percent, causing the 86-year-old’s fortune to drop more than anyone else’s on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The U.S. investor is the world’s fourth-richest person with a net worth of $65.8 billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Clinton’s Stealthy Single-Payer Gambit. The ‘public option’ could be implemented around the country—without congressional approval. It looks like 2017 will be ObamaCare’s worst year yet. The three major insurers, along with many smaller plans, are largely exiting the health-insurance exchanges, leaving more than half of U.S. counties with only one or two health-plan choices, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Nearly 36% of ObamaCare regions may have only one participating insurance carrier offering plans for 2017, according to health-care analytics firm Avalere Health. Data from analysts at Barclays and Credit Suisse project that health-insurance...

Fox News:

• Obama hits campaign trail for Clinton amid rough patch, calls her 'fit’ to lead. (video) President Obama returned Tuesday to the campaign trail to help fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton through arguably the rockiest stretch of her White House campaign, brushing aside the controversies that have dogged her candidacy and assuring voters she's “fit” for office -- as she spends a second day off the trail on doctor's orders.
  

CNBC:

• Next couple of months could be very dangerous for investors, expert says. (video)
• Black Swan investor warns of central bank bubble. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• CBS Caught Editing Clip, Transcript In Which Bill Clinton Says Hillary Fainted "Frequently".
• "Rampant Fraud" Exposed In Obamacare Exchanges: 100% Of Fictitious Enrollees Obtained Subsidies. 
• Doctor Explains Why Hillary's 9/11 "Medical Episode" Is More Consistent With Parkinson's Than Pneumonia.
• European Civil War Looms: French Professor Fears Growing "Jihad Generation" Among Unemployed Muslims.
• A Disturbing Development: Interactive Brokers Implements Price Caps.
• Crude Chaos Strikes On Disappointing Post-Hurricane Rebound In Inventories.
• Bond Bloodbath Bashes Brainard Bounce As 'BillionBears' Slam Stocks. (graph)

Business Insider:

• 'Political retaliation': North Carolina governor fires back over NCAA decision to pull events out of the state.
• WESTON: Here's why markets have suddenly gone haywire.
• The farm bubble has burst.
• A hedge fund manager who shut down his fund following a government raid is now lashing out.

Washington Post:

• Democrats ask for investigation of Trump Foundation donation.

Telegraph:

• Draghi: EU must redistribute wealth and strengthen borders to save the union.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.5 +6.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 39.75+1.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.04 -.06%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (CBRL)/2.13
• (HAIN)/.57
• (APOG)/.67
• (LAKE)/.10 

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,767,820 barrels versus a -14,513,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -604,550 barrels versus a -4,211,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to rise by +1,292,640 barrels versus a +3,382,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.39% versus a +.9% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits 

• (BIP) 3-for-2
• (BMI) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, BofA Healthcare conference, CSFB Small/Mid-Cap Conference, (F) investor day and the (LEG) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Weakness, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.41 +21.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.21 +.59%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.61 +1.92%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.58 +15.71%

• ISE Sentiment Index 55.0 -31.25%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +4.08%

• NYSE Arms 3.21 +676.82% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.26 +5.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 671.0 +.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.67 +2.48%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.05 +.36%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 39.57 +3.49%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 254.12 +1.83%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.69 -.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 48.75 -3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 -2.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.03 -.71%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .35% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 93.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.09/Metric Tonne -2.92%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.1 +1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% unch.
• 28.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 56.8% chance at Dec. 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -149 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Hanjin Fall Is Lehman Moment for Shipping, Seaspan CEO Says. (video) The fall of South Korea’s biggest container line Hanjin Shipping Co. is similar to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and has materially impacted the shipping industry, Seaspan Corp. Chief Executive Officer Gerry Wang said. Seaspan, the Hong Kong-based container-ship leasing company that has three vessels chartered to the distressed line, is evaluating all options and examining systemic risks resulting from Hanjin’s bankruptcy filing, Wang said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. In June, Wang had rejected Hanjin’s requests for charter-rate cuts before the shipping line filed for court receivership last month. “The fallout of Hanjin Shipping is like Lehman Brothers to the financial markets,” Wang said. “It’s a huge, huge nuclear bomb. It shakes up the supply chain, the cornerstone of globalization.”
• Top Steel Producer China Revs Up Output After Prices Advance. China’s steel output rebounded in August after prices rallied, delivering an early warning to world leaders who earlier this month pledged to tackle a global glut of the metal. Crude steel production in the top supplier rose to 68.57 million metric tons in August, up 3 percent from a year earlier and 2.6 percent higher than July, according to the National Statistics Bureau. In the first eight months, output of 536.32 million tons was just 0.1 percent shy of last year’s pace. The figures showing the bounce in August’s output came after the Group of 20 leaders’ meeting in China, which wrapped up Sept. 5 with a plan to to establish a global forum to deal with oversupply. Chinese mills, which make about half the world’s steel, have boosted output amid resurgent prices, with steel reinforcement bar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising to its highest monthly average since December 2014.
• Negative Rates May Do More Harm Than Good, Expert Says. (video) The negative interest rate strategy that Japan and Europe’s central banks have embraced may do more harm than good, according to John Taylor, the creator of an eponymous rule for guiding monetary policy. “What we are learning is that, in my view, negative rates may not have helped and may have hurt,” Taylor, a professor at Stanford University in California, said in a telephone interview this week. “It could be counterproductive, no question.” 
• China’s H Shares Post Steepest Two-Day Decline in Seven Months. (video) Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong posted their biggest two-day loss since February on reduced chances of economic stimulus and as the suspension of buying through a cross-border equity link took a key investor bloc out of the market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index retreated 0.9 percent, taking a two-day decline to 4.8 percent. The gauge, which surged earlier in the day on optimism that the Federal Reserve will desist from increasing interest rates this month, slipped into the red after official data showed China’s industrial production, investment and retail sales all exceeded economist estimates. Tuesday’s reversal came also as the buying of Hong Kong shares through the Shanghai connect was halted ahead of a two-day holiday on the mainland.
• Emerging Markets Fall as Oil Price Outlook Offsets Fed Optimism. (video) The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.7 percent to 883.66 at 12:06 p.m. in New York. The real weakened 1.9 percent, falling for the third time in four days. That was followed by losses of more than 1 percent for Mexico’s peso and the South African rand.
• European Stock Gains Collapse to Usher In Fourth Day of Losses. (video) An early advance in European stocks evaporated as declines in miners and energy producers helped extend the lowest level for equities in more than a month. Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc lost at least 2.6 percent, following crude lower. Anglo Commodity producers fell for a fourth day, their longest losing stretch since June. Ocado Group Plc plunged 14 percent after the online grocer said it sees no respite from sustained margin pressure in the short term. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 1 percent at the close, reversing a gain of as much as 0.6 percent after U.S. markets opened. The benchmark capped its biggest four-day slump in two months, down 3.4 percent, as investors fret central banks may be less willing to use monetary policy to stimulate growth.
• IEA Changes View on Oil Glut, Sees Surplus Enduring in 2017. (video) The surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought, persisting into late 2017 as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient, the International Energy Agency said. World oil stockpiles will continue to accumulate through 2017, a fourth consecutive year of oversupply, according to the IEA. Consumption growth sagged to a two-year low in the third quarter as demand faltered in China and India, while record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut, it said. Just last month the agency predicted the market would return to equilibrium this year. 
• IEA's Parry: China, Europe, India Lead Oil Demand Decline. (video) 
• Hunt for Yield Lives on as Investors Flock to Junk Energy Bonds. Credit market jitters have done little to deter yield-hungry investors from buying new junk bonds to get their fix. Consider PDC Energy Inc., an oil explorer with ratings that are four levels below investment grade. Investors were so enthusiastic for the company’s $400 million bond sale on Monday that they put in $1.5 billion of orders, according to people with knowledge of the matter. PDC isn’t the only energy issuer trying its luck. Despite Tuesday’s plunge in crude, Callon Petroleum Co. and Great Western Petroleum are planning to raise $650 million of debt this week, said the people, who asked not to be named because the deals are private.
• Confidence Waning in Central Banks’ Ability, Rogoff Says. (video) Markets are losing confidence in the ability of central banks to boost inflation and there is a limit to how much quantitative easing programs can accomplish, Harvard University Professor of Economics Kenneth Rogoff said. Central banks -- notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan -- have enacted sovereign bond-buying programs in a bid to boost anemic price pressures. Yet the euro area’s 1.7 trillion-euro ($1.9 trillion) quantitative easing program has so far failed to push inflation materially closer to the central bank’s target.
• Jim Chanos Calls Merged Tesla(TSLA)-SolarCity(SCTY) a ‘Walking Insolvency’. Short-seller Jim Chanos said an announced $2.6 billion merger with SolarCity Corp. will make Tesla Motors Inc. a "walking insolvency." “The synergies are questionable at best," Chanos, who founded hedge fund firm Kynikos Associates, said at the CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference on Tuesday in New York. He estimated that the combined company, which will depend on access to the capital market, could have a cash burn of roughly $1 billion per quarter. In May, Chanos told CNBC that he was betting against the stocks of both companies. He is best known for predicting the collapse of Enron Corp. in 2001.

CNBC:

• Central bank independence 'doesn't really exist,' Paul Singer says.
• 'Bond shock' and pricey stocks worry money managers. (video)
• Market underestimating political catalysts for volatility, UBS' Fitzpatrick says. (video)
• Bridgewater's Dalio: There's a 'dangerous situation' in the debt market now. (video)
• Elliott Management founder Singer: Low rates, radical monetary policy have not led to sustainable growth. (video)

Zero Hedge: 

• "I Protected Hillary Clinton In The Secret Service - Here's Why Her 'Fainting' Video Really Scares Me".
• "It's Not As Though We Can Keep Lowering Rates Forever," A BOJ Official Said.
• Paul Singer Warns It Is A "Very Dangerous Time" For Stocks, Prefers Gold.
• The Craziest Chart You Will See Today.
• JPM Explains Why everything Is Dumping: "The Market Has A BOJ Problem", VaR Shock Returns.
• The Only Conspiracy Theory About Hillary Clinton's Health Is That There's Nothing Wrong With It.
• The US Consumer Taps Out: BofA Internal Credit Card Data Shows Retail Spending Tumbles. (graph)
• 5 Charts For Fully Invested Bears. (graph)
• Atlanta Fed President Lockhart Announces He Is Stepping Down.
• IMF's Lagarde Slams Globalization, Warns Of A "Groundswell Of Discontent".
• Fed Like A "Cowardly Scarecrow" As Corporate Debt Bubble Expands. (graph)
• Step Aside London Whale: Goldman Is Now Using Retail Deposits To Fund Investments.
• Goldman Slashes September Rate-Hike Odds As Hilsenrath Warns Of Divided Fed. (graph)

Business Insider:

• It keeps getting worse for Wells Fargo(WFC).
• We just got some data on auto lending, and it's setting off alarm bells.
• Don't update to iOS 10 yet — it appears to be breaking people's phones.
• Walmart(WMT) is patenting 'mini-robot' technology that could have terrifying implications for workers.
• Apple(AAPL) stock is jumping because the iPhone 7 is exceeding expectations.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -10.0% 2) Steel -6.0% 3) Oil Service -3.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BUFF, BBL, SNY, LSI, GMS, USCR, SYNT, GOF, FGP, AGU, BGSF, FIZZ, IGF, ENZL, WFC, APD, PRTY, NEP, PLAY, CNNX, ETP, OTEX, CVCO, PG, MCFT, AM, APA, CACC, ETP, LOCO and CNX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LQD 2) XHB 3) EWY 4) HYG 5) WFC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WTI 2) PRGS 3) PBR 4) INTU 5) RRGB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume