Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Weakness, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.41 +21.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.21 +.59%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.61 +1.92%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.58 +15.71%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 55.0 -31.25%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +4.08%
  • NYSE Arms 3.21 +676.82
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.26 +5.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 671.0 +.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.67 +2.48%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.05 +.36%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 39.57 +3.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 254.12 +1.83%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.69 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 48.75 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.03 -.71%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .35% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 93.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.09/Metric Tonne -2.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.1 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% unch.
  • 28.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 56.8% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -149 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -62 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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