Thursday, September 15, 2016

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.9 -12.35%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.02 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.96 +.74%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.23 -10.27%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +25.74%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -24.1%
  • NYSE Arms .53 -68.21
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.55 -3.98%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 680.0 +.53%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.16 +1.07%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.31 +1.36%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.95 -1.89%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 256.31 -1.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.64 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 53.0 +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.37 +.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 97.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.97/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.0 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.3 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% +1.0 basis point
  • 26.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 49.7% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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